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Hello mission creep. I'm a little surprised Iraq hasn't threatened to cut our supply line yet, but I guess more or less staying out of their internal squabble with the Iraqi Kurds probably bought us some time. The Jerusalem announcement would seem to increase the incentive for a militia group in Iraq to take an opportunistic shot though. https://twitter.com/AliBakeer/status/939237900918681606 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 01:27 on Dec 9, 2017 |
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Dec 9, 2017 01:25
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Sinteres posted:Hello mission creep. I'm a little surprised Iraq hasn't threatened to cut our supply line yet, but I guess more or less staying out of their internal squabble with the Iraqi Kurds probably bought us some time. The Jerusalem announcement would seem to increase the incentive for a militia group in Iraq to take an opportunistic shot though. Yeah I'm sure the Pentagon would happily keep troops in Syria indefinitely, just like they would have been happy to keep troops in Iraq after 2011. Just as in that case though I suspect it won't be the Pentagon that will get to make that call. America has a lot of allies and competing interests to juggle in the region and Iraq and Turkey could really mess with this deployment.
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Dec 9, 2017 01:52
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Squalid posted:Yeah I'm sure the Pentagon would happily keep troops in Syria indefinitely, just like they would have been happy to keep troops in Iraq after 2011. Just as in that case though I suspect it won't be the Pentagon that will get to make that call. America has a lot of allies and competing interests to juggle in the region and Iraq and Turkey could really mess with this deployment. The startling thing to me is how brazen it is. As long as we at least rhetorically tied what we were doing to the war on ISIS, it was easy to handwave away the fact that we're effectively occupying another country's territory, but the Pentagon seems to be shedding that pretense pretty quickly as that war is winding down. I was going to say I can't think of any real precedent, but actually the no fly zones in Iraq had less international backing than I thought they did, so maybe that's the closest analogy. If so, it's not really comforting since our permanent military presence in (and intermittent actions against) Iraq pretty clearly had something to do with paving the way to invasion years later. If we want to be effective negotiators, I guess signaling an intention to remain indefinitely is a good starting position, and if that's where we're headed with this, great. I just don't think the people in charge of making US foreign policy are actually that sophisticated at this point, and are probably blundering around without any real plan for managing this potentially massive open ended commitment in the long run. To be fair, I suspect Obama didn't really have much of a plan for what would come after Raqqa either.
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Dec 9, 2017 02:17
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Sinteres posted:The startling thing to me is how brazen it is. As long as we at least rhetorically tied what we were doing to the war on ISIS, it was easy to handwave away the fact that we're effectively occupying another country's territory, but the Pentagon seems to be shedding that pretense pretty quickly as that war is winding down. I was going to say I can't think of any real precedent, but actually the no fly zones in Iraq had less international backing than I thought they did, so maybe that's the closest analogy. If so, it's not really comforting since our permanent military presence in (and intermittent actions against) Iraq pretty clearly had something to do with paving the way to invasion years later. ISIS isn't quite done in Syria and "welp, things quieted down a bit, guess we're out!" hasn't been much of a winner when it comes to leaving places on good terms. I expect the idea is to assist Iraq, the SDF, and Kurds until ISIS is off the map - a thing the Iraqis at least are not opposed to. I would also not be surprised if the US footprint is shrinking already, though.
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Dec 9, 2017 03:09
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Sinteres posted:If we want to be effective negotiators, I guess signaling an intention to remain indefinitely is a good starting position Syria, since the elder Assad, has never been remotely in our sphere. There was a time we cared about influencing Syria due to its previous pan-arab aspirations. When that dream didn't pan out, we cared about Syria because it was the only Arab state wholly under Russian influence, and viewed by the Russians as a reliable, but expensive ally, one however, that the US characterized as a Russian client, and potentially meddlesome proxy. So we didn't like that, not one bit. That irksome Soviet-Syrian partnership fell by the wayside after the Soviet dismantlement, to many arabist sighs of relief. Then we cared about Syria because they made a devil's deal with the Palestinians on the Ahmed Jibril PFLP side that made Syrian soil completely "neutral" from conflict in exchange for using Syrian roads and airports as safe conduits for Palestinian materiel and later, Iraqi materiel. Included in the deal was the freedom to live in Bathist Syria as long as they didn't poo poo where they lived. It insulated Syria from the Palestian (and Iraqi) conflict and allowed them to administer an insidiously corrupt but secular Syrian state that was avowedly anti-Muslim Brotherhood, whom they happily slaughtered by the many thousands. But that insularity couldn't stand against the larger chaos as the idiot eye doctor's apple clearly fell far from his shrewd and ruthless father's tree. Now the Russians have returned. Pragmatically realizing that a potentially grateful but expensive Arab ally with a nice Med port in Latakia is once more available - because of Syrian weakness. And we don't like that, not one bit.
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Dec 9, 2017 05:34
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Warbadger posted:ISIS isn't quite done in Syria and "welp, things quieted down a bit, guess we're out!" hasn't been much of a winner when it comes to leaving places on good terms. I expect the idea is to assist Iraq, the SDF, and Kurds until ISIS is off the map - a thing the Iraqis at least are not opposed to. I would also not be surprised if the US footprint is shrinking already, though. I do think we have sufficient reason not to pack up and leave tomorrow for sure, but some of the statements about not allowing Assad to return combined with the rush to beat Assad to the oil rich areas east of DeZ signal a motive beyond just making sure ISIS is gone. I'm just not sure if anyone has actually put together a plan for how this is going to work long term when that territory is ultimately surrounded by Assad, his allies in iraq (or at least allies of his sponsor Iran), and Erdogan's Turkey which is obviously very hostile to the SDF. That's why I'm hoping they're looking for leverage rather than actually putting down roots for an indefinite occupation. the popes toes posted:"Signaling to whom?" is probably a good question. Maybe the only important question. I meant signaling to Assad we didn't plan on leaving soon so he'd be forced to negotiate with the SDF instead of just waiting for us to gently caress off and then do whatever he can convince Russia/Turkey/Iraq/Iran to enable him to do. And perhaps signaling to the SDF that they shouldn't jump ship for Russia as a more secure long-term partner just yet. the popes toes posted:That irksome Soviet-Syrian partnership fell by the wayside after the Soviet dismantlement, to many arabist sighs of relief. Russia started renovating their base before the civil war started, so Assad had already made the port available to them. Russia's obviously in a far better position to dictate terms going forward, but it's hard to argue that they got off cheap given how much effort they've had to expend to keep it. It was pretty much their last remaining important base in an area beyond their immediate borders though, so it was pretty much poo poo or get off the pot time in terms of having any hope of retaining (or reclaiming) their spot as a great power. It's too early to say how that's going to pay off for them long term, but more immediately it seems to have been dramatically more successful than they could have possibly hoped for since the refugee crisis contributed a lot to destabilizing their adversaries, and their active return to the region seems to have inspired some US allies to shop around a bit.
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Dec 9, 2017 06:15
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Another thing is that Syria has actually agreed to expand the base, as well as grant a lease for the air base the Russians are using. If anything that airbase is probably the crucial one since it gives the RuAF a permanent station in a critical area of the Middle East. Also, the long we stay in Syria, especially by supporting the SDF, the harder Turkish-American relations are going to continue to unravel. I suspect Erdogan utterly unloading on the Greeks was sending a message to the US/EU. The Jerusalem issue also really isn't helping either. Having influence in Syria is going to come with a high price, and I suspect the issue simply comes down to the "Shia Cresent" and we have to stick around to challenge Iran (who would have only been in that particular position in the first place to other American blunders in the region).
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Dec 9, 2017 09:30
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Mozi posted:Kind of a lousy painting anyways. Dark and drab.
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Dec 9, 2017 09:42
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Here's a thread on a Dutch IS fighter killed in the battle with Nusra. https://www.reddit.com/r/SyrianRebels/comments/7h5gdr/dutch_is_fighter_who_was_in_deir_ezzor_on_8/
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Dec 9, 2017 18:25
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Throatwarbler posted:It's specific because his reforms were specifically designed by Mckinsey. Well, "MBB", but close enough. Huh. Interesting.
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Dec 10, 2017 08:04
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Trump Jerusalem move: Tear gas at Lebanon US embassy protest http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-42298782
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Dec 10, 2017 11:28
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Have to agree with Bibi here https://mobile.twitter.com/AFP/status/939886373665951747 Bombing an ethnic group because you don't want them to have any political power in your country is bad.
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Dec 10, 2017 17:05
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Netanyahu and Erdogan are basically staring in a mirror and shouting at it.
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Dec 10, 2017 17:37
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El Disco posted:Have to agree with Bibi here Uhhh
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Dec 10, 2017 20:24
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For Christmas this year, Qatar wants protectors. On December 7, they bought 12 additional Rafale aircraft (in addition to the 24 already purchased) and reserved an option for 36 more in the future. And three days later, today, they signed up a contract for 24 Typhoon aircraft from the UK. They had also signed up for 36 F-15 earlier. Will they look at the MiG-35 and FC-31 next? Just so as to round out the P5 favors?
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Dec 10, 2017 20:41
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Cat Mattress posted:For Christmas this year, Qatar wants protectors. Well I can't say ordering a few billions worth of aircraft is the worst insurance policy.
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Dec 10, 2017 20:51
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The aircraft themselves are near useless in the short term. For the Typhoon, deliveries are planned for 2022 for example. And actually operating them requires a ton of infrastructure and logistical support that Qatar doesn't have yet. Most likely most of their pilots will have to be foreign mercenaries. They're buying them for political favors.
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Dec 10, 2017 21:09
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Forging economic ties with the Western Military Industrial Complex is a fairly solid way of trying to gain favour for Qatar amongst Western politicians to be fair.
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Dec 10, 2017 23:32
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Cat Mattress posted:The aircraft themselves are near useless in the short term. For the Typhoon, deliveries are planned for 2022 for example. And actually operating them requires a ton of infrastructure and logistical support that Qatar doesn't have yet. Most likely most of their pilots will have to be foreign mercenaries. They're buying them for political favors. I don't think they use foreign mercenaries. They most likely already have pilots training in the UK / France etc already and when the planes arrive in Qatar they'll have pilots ready to go.
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Dec 11, 2017 02:23
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Yeah, fighter pilot is one of the acceptably cool lines of work among modern aristocrats. It's the support staff they usually farm out.
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Dec 11, 2017 02:27
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https://dci.tms.hrdepartment.com/jobs/291/Fighter-controller-instructor-H-FDoha-Qatar
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Dec 11, 2017 09:02
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Cat Mattress posted:The aircraft themselves are near useless in the short term. For the Typhoon, deliveries are planned for 2022 for example. And actually operating them requires a ton of infrastructure and logistical support that Qatar doesn't have yet. Most likely most of their pilots will have to be foreign mercenaries. They're buying them for political favors. That is literally what I meant by insurance policy.
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Dec 11, 2017 09:11
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Russia getting the gently caress out of Syria.quote:Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a surprise visit to a Russian base in Syria and ordered his troops to start withdrawing from the war-torn country.
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Dec 11, 2017 14:24
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Russa, friend of Egypt. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/940210028824363008
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Dec 11, 2017 14:29
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How many decades until global nuclear weapon proliferation is inevitable? This Egyptian plant won't advance this in the short or medium term but in the long term the next generation of Egyptian scientists will include those in the nuclear field and then it's only a matter of time. Nuclear knowledge will hit a critical mass of availability once enough regional powers have access and some inevitably will export nuclear secrets.
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Dec 11, 2017 15:01
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The Mossad has a lot of experience assassinating nuclear scientists.
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Dec 11, 2017 15:10
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Cat Mattress posted:The Mossad has a lot of experience assassinating nuclear scientists. But Israel and Egypt are on pretty good terms these days, that would be a blow to their quiet alliance. I wonder if that is what Russia is after here.
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Dec 11, 2017 15:32
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YPG, friend of Iraq. https://twitter.com/mutludc/status/940217209971986432
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Dec 11, 2017 17:17
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Uh huh https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/06/russia-aircraft-carrier-mediterranean-syria-admiral-kuznetsov https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...e-idUSKCN0WG23C
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Dec 11, 2017 17:40
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Russia has withdrawn or 'de-escalated' from Syria over a dozen times at this point.
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Dec 11, 2017 17:42
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Its probably tied to Putin's re-election campaign at this point. But yeah, they're stuck just how the US is stuck in Iraq.
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Dec 11, 2017 19:46
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Sinteres posted:Hello mission creep. I'm a little surprised Iraq hasn't threatened to cut our supply line yet, but I guess more or less staying out of their internal squabble with the Iraqi Kurds probably bought us some time. The Jerusalem announcement would seem to increase the incentive for a militia group in Iraq to take an opportunistic shot though. “I believe demolishing Hussein’s military power and liberating Iraq would be a cakewalk.” - Kenneth Adelman, member of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board, 2/13/02 “Support for Saddam, including within his military organization, will collapse after the first whiff of gunpowder.” - Richard Perle, Chairman of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board, 7/11/02 “Desert Storm II would be in a walk in the park... The case for ‘regime change’ boils down to the huge benefits and modest costs of liberating Iraq.” - Kenneth Adelman, member of the Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board, 8/29/02 “Having defeated and then occupied Iraq, democratizing the country should not be too tall an order for the world’s sole superpower.” - William Kristol, Weekly Standard editor, and Lawrence F. Kaplan, New Republic senior editor, 2/24/03 “The idea that it would take several hundred thousand U.S. forces, I think, is far from the mark.” - Donald H. Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Defense, 2/27/03 “I am reasonably certain that they will greet us as liberators, and that will help us keep [troop] requirements down. ... We can say with reasonable confidence that the notion of hundreds of thousands of American troops is way off the mark...wildly off the mark.” - Paul Wolfowitz, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense, testifying before the House Budget Committee, 2/27/03 “The idea that it’s going to be a long, long, long battle of some kind I think is belied by the fact of what happened in 1990. Five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn’t going to last any longer than that.” - Donald H. Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Defense, 11/15/02 “I will bet you the best dinner in the gaslight district of San Diego that military action will not last more than a week. Are you willing to take that wager?” - Bill O’Reilly, 1/29/03 “It is unknowable how long that conflict will last. It could be six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.” - Donald H. Rumsfeld, U.S. Secretary of Defense, 2/7/03 “It won’t take weeks... Our military machine will crush Iraq in a matter of days and there’s no question that it will.” - Bill O’Reilly, 2/10/03
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Dec 11, 2017 21:00
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fits my needs posted:Russa, friend of Egypt. Russia with Rosatom is one of the few competent builders of nuclear power plants left in world, so if you want a decent nuclear power plant and don't mind cuddling up with Russia, you hit them up. The expansion and export of their businesses related to nuclear power generation has been a clear focus for their governments for quite some time.
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Dec 11, 2017 21:28
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here's something cool I found, a saudi leftist fighter who fought and died fighting for palestine with the PFLP in 1969. Riyadh Mohammad AlKhuzaim, apparently he took a couple of those Zionist fucks with him, a hero who should be remembered. https://twitter.com/abu_taymour/status/940100490536165376 https://twitter.com/ohoudll1/status/940275346800332800
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Dec 11, 2017 22:22
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Please don't go and join and die for some violent rebellion al Saqr, this thread would not be the same without you spewing local venom and the word fascist over the middle eastern power players.
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Dec 11, 2017 22:45
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Zudgemud posted:Please don't go and join and die for some violent rebellion al Saqr, this thread would not be the same without you spewing local venom and the word fascist over the middle eastern power players. Lol what makes you think I'm going to do anything? I'm just sharing something interesting.
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Dec 11, 2017 22:48
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Saqr is going to lead the first gamer uprising in the Middle East. The Overwatch Coup will bring democracy to Arabia while also making it legal to marry big titty animes.
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Dec 11, 2017 22:58
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The next King will be determined by an al-Saud family Smash tournament.
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Dec 12, 2017 00:20
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Throatwarbler posted:Here's a thread on a Dutch IS fighter killed in the battle with Nusra. even jihadists have gfs 
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Dec 12, 2017 02:17
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The X-man cometh posted:The next King will be determined by an al-Saud family Smash tournament. Fahad al-Saud has never been more prepared for anything in his life. before this google search I never knew this dude or article existed https://www.polygon.com/features/2015/4/30/8514675/a-saudi-prince-is-using-video-games-to-fuel-an-intellectual I am inherently skeptical but at least there have been an awful lot of shittier princely pet projects
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Dec 12, 2017 02:25
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