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https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/940711567674527744 https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/940711410585276418
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Dec 12, 2017 23:47
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hanales posted:
Well...why wouldn't they? This is an honest question. Voting for Jones is clearly the better option for them right now, because he's less of an outright bigot (and also not a pedophile) than Moore. Voting Jones in also gives dems more power to undermine the GOP, meaning that they will be better off on a federal and a state level by Jones winning. Just abstaining from voting is dumb and counterproductive.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:47
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axeil posted:Looking at the exit report and I'm seeing something surprising: IIRC Alabama is 25% black so it's insanely good
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Dec 12, 2017 23:52
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hanales posted:Ok you condescending dickhead, that criticism is the same no matter who it applies to, do you understand? Those were doug jones ads vs. a trumpist candidate? You get that right? It didn't work last time, and instead of being a strong rebuke of republican ideals it's "I just can't stomach voting for this particular guy". I get why they run a non-progressive person in Alabama, because it's Alabama. when you say stupid things, expect to be treated like you are stupid. you are currently saying a different stupid thing than the person in the tweet. hers is factually false. yours is stupid because you don't grasp that the dynamics of a special election in a deep red state are much different than the dynamics of a presidential election nationwide, but mostly because you don't grasp that you're saying something different than what she's saying and i don't really feel like going in depth on you. you do not seem to have any loving idea what the tweet said, which means you need to work on reading. the tweet said, basically, jones is a bad person and the one good thing he talks about doesn't make up for it...except that the "bad person" stuff is nonsense, and the birmingham bomber stuff is far from the only thing he runs on. my level of condescension is nowhere near what is warranted, holy crap you're dumb.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:54
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if true 30% AA turnout, it's v. good for Jones the exit looks promising on several points (trump approval? party ID?) and that breakdown by race is excellent but be wary of early exits! ninjaedit: reworded
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Dec 12, 2017 23:55
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Don't think I'd seen the party ID breakdown: https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/940714722772553728 While I'm sure most Alabama "independents" are Republicans, iirc there was a dramatic difference between what self-described republicans and self-described independents thought of Moore so they may more be the persuadable Republicans.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:56
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axeil posted:Looking at the exit report and I'm seeing something surprising: Uh, holy poo poo. 30% would be... actually, the only good poll recently that's listed how it weighted its sample was Monmouth, which had the race at a dead tie or slightly Jones-favored with 28% black vote share. 30% tops that.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:56
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I'm surprised that their % of snake handlers isn't a lot higher.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:57
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I don't know that there's any indication that Jones is any kind of bigot. I just have public policy positions to go off of here, but he's in favor of removing mandatory minimum sentencing, favors alternative sentencing, and directly raises racial disparities in criminal outcomes.
Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Dec 13, 2017 |
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Dec 12, 2017 23:57
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McCloud posted:Well...why wouldn't they? This is an honest question. Voting for Jones is clearly the better option for them right now, because he's less of an outright bigot (and also not a pedophile) than Moore. Voting Jones in also gives dems more power to undermine the GOP, meaning that they will be better off on a federal and a state level by Jones winning. Well I'm not a person of color, but if in my viewpoint neither is going to do anything for you at all, why would you go to the trouble? That's the enthusiasm gap people talk about. It's not "They will vote for Moore" It's "Why should I take time off of work/find a sitter/get a ride/take time away from my family" to go stand in line in a place that likely has suppression all around it, hostile polling employees and machines that inexplicably break causing lines out the door? Like, these are all things that happen in suppressed environments, combine that with a candidate you don't feel will actually do anything for you, and why vote? Look, I hope people don't feel that way, I'm just discussing what is an honest perspective from a lot of people in this country. I hear it many times when elections roll around and I'm discussing things with friends or knocking on doors. I'm not saying it's statistically significant (my experience), I'm just saying it's not made up whole cloth, and a legitimate view people face. Luckily initial turnout numbers seem to say people aren't feeling that way in Alabama for this election, and that's a great thing.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:57
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My understanding which comes entirely from 538 is that Jones wins if the demographics of the turnout are much more demographic-leaning than past elections, because basically all the polls had to make up for lovely samples with heavy demographic weighting So to the extent exit polls mean anything this is great
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Dec 12, 2017 23:58
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evilweasel posted:Don't think I'd seen the party ID breakdown: That party ID is awfully close, and that evangelical number is rather low for a Bible Belt state.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:58
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let me be the first to say that i think its all going to come down to turnout
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Dec 12, 2017 23:59
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Alter Ego posted:That party ID is awfully close, and that evangelical number is rather low for a Bible Belt state. 43% self-reported Republican vote share is slightly above Monmouth's weighted 41% in the last high-quality poll we had (that had the race tied), and 37% Democratic is way up from Monmouth's 30%. Meanwhile, Independents at 20% are way below Monmouth's 28%.
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Dec 12, 2017 23:59
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QuoProQuid posted:let me be the first to say that i think its all going to come down to turnout You'd be safe to say that about nearly every election
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Dec 13, 2017 00:00
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evilweasel posted:Don't think I'd seen the party ID breakdown: That evangelical number seems like it should be flipped. Only 43% is nuts.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:00
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evilweasel posted:when you say stupid things, expect to be treated like you are stupid. you are currently saying a different stupid thing than the person in the tweet. hers is factually false. yours is stupid because you don't grasp that the dynamics of a special election in a deep red state are much different than the dynamics of a presidential election nationwide, but mostly because you don't grasp that you're saying something different than what she's saying and i don't really feel like going in depth on you. you do not seem to have any loving idea what the tweet said, which means you need to work on reading. the tweet said, basically, jones is a bad person and the one good thing he talks about doesn't make up for it...except that the "bad person" stuff is nonsense, and the birmingham bomber stuff is far from the only thing he runs on. my level of condescension is nowhere near what is warranted, holy crap you're dumb. You really don't think that in the view of someone who works for prison reform and on innocence projects that Jones would be a lame choice? You're the one ignoring the specific point of black voters. You've ignored it in every post, concentrating on her calling Jones "bad", so you can do a sick takedown of her tweet. Again, address the core issue of her tweet, dems expect black turnout, despite actually doing anything for black voters. Maybe you could do more classy insults of me though, clearly you're the internet and election expert.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:04
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QuoProQuid posted:let me be the first to say that i think its all going to come down to turnout Are you saying that the side with more votes will win?
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Dec 13, 2017 00:06
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Quorum posted:43% self-reported Republican vote share is slightly above Monmouth's weighted 41% in the last high-quality poll we had (that had the race tied), and 37% Democratic is way up from Monmouth's 30%. Meanwhile, Independents at 20% are way below Monmouth's 28%. Following on from this, the Fox poll that had Jones up a crazy ten percent had the following party affiliations after the LV screen: D: 34 (plus 8 leaners = 42) R: 35 (plus 9 leaners = 44) I: 14 So Democrats are between their solid and with-leaners numbers from Fox, while Republicans would gain all their leaners, but we're also seeing much higher Independent turnout than the Fox poll projected. In that poll, Jones won 48% with Independents, Moore won 20%.  early exits are still garbage though
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Dec 13, 2017 00:07
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Worst Jones is going to do is a 1-3 point loss. And I expect an outright win.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:07
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Seph posted:Are you saying that the side with more votes will win? See 2016 president election
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Dec 13, 2017 00:07
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cheetah7071 posted:You'd be safe to say that about nearly every election i was making a dumb pundit joke something something the only poll that matters is the one on election day
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Dec 13, 2017 00:07
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hanales posted:You really don't think that in the view of someone who works for prison reform and on innocence projects that Jones would be a lame choice? You're the one ignoring the specific point of black voters. You've ignored it in every post, concentrating on her calling Jones "bad", so you can do a sick takedown of her tweet. he has been like this ever since he watched his dreams of career advancement at any point over the next four years collapse into flames, along with all his long-received wisdom about How Politics Works; it is best not to take him seriously the most pro-jones exit poll datum thus far had "views Democratic Party Favorably" at 44%; that beats the national average by what, 14?
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Dec 13, 2017 00:10
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Discendo Vox posted:I don't know that there's any indication that Jones is any kind of bigot. I just have public policy positions to go off of here, but he's in favor of removing mandatory minimum sentencing, favors alternative sentencing, and directly raises racial disparities in criminal outcomes. See this is good to know.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:13
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Ze Pollack posted:he has been like this ever since he watched his dreams of career advancement at any point over the next four years collapse into flames, along with all his long-received wisdom about How Politics Works; it is best not to take him seriously Damnit Ze Pollack don't make me laugh I'm supposed to be perma-mad at you in the Russia thread. https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/940720889313792001 538 live blog up.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:15
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hanales posted:You really don't think that in the view of someone who works for prison reform and on innocence projects that Jones would be a lame choice? You're the one ignoring the specific point of black voters. You've ignored it in every post, concentrating on her calling Jones "bad", so you can do a sick takedown of her tweet. we're discussing a specific tweet that you apparently can't read; i'm not going to start discussing new things that you suddenly read into it that are not there. given your inability to read a simple tweet im also uninterested in your factual assertions because you seem bad at them. w/r/t "moore is a terrible person don't vote for him": that is (a) not pandering to republicans, its seeking to get their vote without compromising on the issues at all; and (b) necessary in a deep red state because you cannot win without at least some republicans in alabama. (b) is different from clinton's campaign because clinton could win without republicans, making her focus on disqualifying trump to them a mistake compared to making a positive case however the more problematic part of your theorizing is that jones has absolutely repeatedly put forth a positive case for himself: you just don't know about it because you didn't pay attention and are using your ignorance of him doing it as evidence he didn't. you are jumping in to defend a bad take to spout nonsense, which is annoying and dumb.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:17
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Ze Pollack posted:he has been like this ever since he watched his dreams of career advancement at any point over the next four years collapse into flames, along with all his long-received wisdom about How Politics Works; it is best not to take him seriously i dont work in politics, man still bitterly angry about being probated five years ago
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Dec 13, 2017 00:18
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Seph posted:Are you saying that the side with more votes will win? The John Madden of political analysis.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:18
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Doug Jones is also listed on his site and elsewhere as forwarding prison reform. Well on his site, he doesn't use the phrase "prison reform" (because he's not trying to lose), instead he talks about reducing sentencing requirements and the amount of money being spent on prison compared with education spending.
Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 00:37 on Dec 13, 2017 |
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Dec 13, 2017 00:19
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https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/940719368882794501
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Dec 13, 2017 00:20
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evilweasel posted:we're discussing a specific tweet that you apparently can't read; i'm not going to start discussing new things that you suddenly read into it that are not there. given your inability to read a simple tweet im also uninterested in your factual assertions because you seem bad at them. https://twitter.com/elisabeth/status/940606122318278657 "yet his party has the entire nerve to expect Black folks to propel him to US Senate bc he once prosecuted church bombers? FOH" What part of that have you responded to? Oh, none of it. You're boring at this point. I'll take Ze's advice, and he's terrible.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:23
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hanales posted:https://twitter.com/elisabeth/status/940606122318278657 let me explain it to you: the first part is "doug jones is bad for these (wrong) reasons" and then the latter is 'but he expects that one prosecution to erase all that?!?!?!?!' the latter part is wrong (among other reasons) because the predicate is wrong: there are no bad things that the birmingham bombing is supposed to erase. without the first part the second is nonsensical. that's what you're not getting the other reason it's wrong is that's not the only thing he's running on. i don't know if that person is also projecting their ignorance or just wants to play holier than thou or what, but it's also dumb.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:28
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i too like to analyze and elevate the political ramblings of randos on twitter in other news, moore has apparently been locked out of the airwaves in dem-leaning birmingham quote:BIRMINGHAM, Alabama — I’ve been here in Birmingham since Saturday night. Here are some notes from the campaign trail. I should emphasize that Birmingham is a Democratic-leaning area in this very Republican state, with enough hipsters to support a cafe that sells a $4 iced coffee. At the same time, more than 1 million people live in Birmingham and the suburbs around it, more than a fifth of the state’s population. Moore needs some people around here to vote for him, while Jones needs to run up the score here. (In his narrow 2012 victory in a race for chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, Moore carried about 37 percent of the vote in Jefferson County, which includes much of Birmingham.) also, moore has, unsurprisingly, locked the washington post out of his election night event: https://twitter.com/ChadPergram/status/940723768229494785
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Dec 13, 2017 00:34
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axeil posted:edit: in actual news, I just heard the electorate was 30% black. Is that good or bad for Alabama? pretty good but jones will need to pick off at least 25% of whites when democrats normally only get about 15% in alabama
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Dec 13, 2017 00:46
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Elizabeth Epps is an activist and an analyst. She isn't a rando just because you don't follow black people.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:46
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Koalas March posted:Elizabeth Epps is an activist and an analyst. She isn't a rando just because you don't follow black people. Unverified and less than 8k followers. Yes they definitely should have known
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Dec 13, 2017 00:48
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No Butt Stuff posted:Unverified and less than 8k followers. Yes they definitely should have known Ah yes, I forgot you're not a person unless you have a Twitter presence.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:50
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Koalas March posted:Elizabeth Epps is an activist and an analyst. She isn't a rando just because you don't follow black people. I've never heard of her before today, but it doesn't change that her take is not accurate, and purposefully inflammatory.
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Dec 13, 2017 00:51
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Koalas March posted:Ah yes, I forgot you're not a person unless you have a Twitter presence. this is pretty obviously not what butt stuff was saying
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Dec 13, 2017 00:51
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Casimir Radon posted:I'm surprised that their % of snake handlers isn't a lot higher. those are charismatics and they're usually found in the mountains, which alabama doesn't have a lot of alabama's evangelicals are mostly the joyless baptist variety
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Dec 13, 2017 00:51
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