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Fans posted:So is the Republican Vote really that unshiftable? It’s hard to think of a worse candidate than Roy Moore and apparently him being a garbage fire of a human being still won’t stop tribal voting for the Reds. They agree with him.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:16
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If we can maintain and grow this coalition we can take out Paul Ryan, McConnell and Graham.Koalas March posted:They agree with him. The old hat is that "oh they're just ignorant" but the truth is these people are not only ignorant but just as often Nazis and they should be given No Quarter EVER.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:16
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Fans posted:So is the Republican Vote really that unshiftable? It’s hard to think of a worse candidate than Roy Moore and apparently him being a garbage fire of a human being still won’t stop tribal voting for the Reds. I think it's shiftable in the long-term, just not in the short-term. I sometimes say that many die-hard Republican voters are "lost causes," but what I mean is that, in an individual election, it isn't worth it for a candidate to try to appeal to them. By the time there's an election on, the stakes are high enough, the arguments are loud enough that few people are going to fully change their minds and vote for the "other team." In the long term, though, people do change their minds, and headway can be made. It's just that, usually, you're not going to straight-up flip a meaningful number of votes during an ongoing campaign, no matter what happens. And, like Koalas March notes, plenty of Republican voters probably agree with him--their votes aren't going to shift because he's saying what they want to hear. Any effect that Moore being a pedophile had is probably down to people straight-up not voting or writing in. It likely drove his numbers down, but probably didn't make very many Moore voters actually vote for Jones. Same for the "slavery owns, actually" and "women and black people shouldn't be allowed to vote because amendments after the 10th ruined this country" statements.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:18
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Fans posted:So is the Republican Vote really that unshiftable? It’s hard to think of a worse candidate than Roy Moore and apparently him being a garbage fire of a human being still won’t stop tribal voting for the Reds. It's the racism. Thinking slavery was rad is a feature, not a bug. I'm on my phone or I'd link the studies. Racial bias is like the biggest determinant of voting patterns. The more racist you are the more likely to vote Republican.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:20
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's the racism. Thinking slavery was rad is a feature, not a bug. Found the study link: https://hbr.org/2017/09/research-opposition-to-federal-spending-is-driven-by-racial-resentment
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Dec 13, 2017 19:21
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Fans posted:So is the Republican Vote really that unshiftable? It’s hard to think of a worse candidate than Roy Moore and apparently him being a garbage fire of a human being still won’t stop tribal voting for the Reds. if i may quote myself on the subject: quote:not even (just) the racism, tbh. it's a rightfully underinspected part of why the consultant-tested northam-approved "what if we just said Mexicans aren't people?" strategy is incredibly stupid. the total, obvious moral bankruptcy to one side, and even pushing aside "what racist, given the choice between diet and actual racism, goes with diet," you run into something much worse.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:25
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The racism I get but I didn’t think Slavery had many backers still. Or this is just like a reverse dog whistle, where people absolutely get what he means but decide to soften it a bit because clearly he doesn’t actually mean to bring back slavery. It just seems to speak to the larger problem that people can say horrendous poo poo openly and get away with it now and Moore just barely hosed it up by being so abhorrent people had to give a poo poo. It’s hard to celebrate a victory that depressing
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Dec 13, 2017 19:28
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Fans posted:The racism I get but I didn’t think Slavery had many backers still. Or this is just like a reverse dog whistle, where people absolutely get what he means but decide to soften it a bit because clearly he doesn’t actually mean to bring back slavery. Trust me there's plenty of pro-slavery, pro-lynching, "blacks aren't human" scum. And they vote.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:30
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for people who have been taught that the best they can hope for from a politician is that he makes the libs mad, it does not matter whether he actually believes slavery was better. it matters that saying it makes the black people, and the big-city liberals, who they hate, angry. and that same mental pathway allows them to justify voting for a pedophile. "sure, he's a jackass. but he's our jackass. and we can trust him to keep doing the only thing we can expect a politician to do for us: make our enemies feel pain." there is an avenue to co-opt this hatred. it is the kind of thing that makes establishments of all stripes rightfully extremely nervous, though.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:34
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Fans posted:The racism I get but I didn’t think Slavery had many backers still. Or this is just like a reverse dog whistle, where people absolutely get what he means but decide to soften it a bit because clearly he doesn’t actually mean to bring back slavery. It's Alabama. Slavery has that many backers, still. I mean, I grew up in a southern state, not *that* long ago, and the racial stuff Moore said is basically indistinguishable from stuff I'd hear all the time in casual conversation when I was a kid. Moore wasn't dogwhistling: he comes from a bubble where that stuff is normal.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:35
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I’m used to US healthcare stories as the nightmare fuel but apparently I have so much more to be quietly terrified by
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Dec 13, 2017 19:37
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Fans posted:The racism I get but I didn’t think Slavery had many backers still. Or this is just like a reverse dog whistle, where people absolutely get what he means but decide to soften it a bit because clearly he doesn’t actually mean to bring back slavery. The authoritarians have always existed and unless we establish a monoculture they always will. You're kind of describing a decorum problem, which is that now that people are saying things openly, that's worse than when they were just doing it institutionally so it was plausibly deniable. If we want to destroy the alt-reich we can only do so when they're unmasked for who they are.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:42
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...m=.762c3d88d6be
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Dec 13, 2017 19:42
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Koalas March posted:They agree with him. Old people do. Jones won white people under 30. Change will come, but we can’t afford to wait for it to come naturally. We have to do what we can right now.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:43
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biracial bear for uncut posted:That would be impressive if the Republican they ran against wasn't literally a pedophile that also said he wanted to repeal the voting rights of women and minorities and said the last time America was great was when chattel slavery was still legal. Why is it any less impressive that Democrats beat him? If anything, Moore's mere presence in a general reflects poorly on Republicans, but in a state this blood-red, the election was never ever going to be a runaway for a Democrat. Hell, it wasn't even supposed to be close. Moore was supposed to be declared the winner as soon as the polls closed.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:45
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What a shocking surprise that literally no one could have guessed. 
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Dec 13, 2017 19:48
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Moore only managed to bring in about 50% of Trump's numbers (1.3m in 2016 vs 640k this week). He destroyed his own turnout by being a gross dumbass.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:50
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Grapplejack posted:Moore only managed to bring in about 50% of Trump's numbers (1.3m in 2016 vs 640k this week). He destroyed his own turnout by being a gross dumbass. This was a special election though, lower turnout was a predictable outcome. The unpredictable thing was Jones hitting 2016 turnout, not Moore failing to do the same. Jones overperformed and his campaign staff and volunteers achieved something remarkable last night.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:51
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Fans posted:If your argument is that Roy Moore being a pedophile didn’t really matter when it came to the vote that’s just incredibly dark. It didn't matter to the republicans who voted for him anyway. It's comforting that in a race this publicized, where it reached near presidential election turn-out, that a lot of Republicans just stayed home, which is also a big reason why Jones won out.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:54
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this article is kinda bullshit.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:56
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Fans posted:I’m used to US healthcare stories as the nightmare fuel but apparently I have so much more to be quietly terrified by I know a guy who favors returning to the days where only land-owners get to vote. People are poo poo.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:58
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Fluffdaddy posted:It moved the line from four points to even to about two and a half points. So yes most people had made up their mind before November. And there were also polls that people who made up their minds in the past few days broke hard for Moore, because the GOP Base Always Comes Home. Now that everyone's had an evening to celebrate, it's time to face the reality that the dems didn't win this race, the GOP lost it. It took an incredible set of circumstances: the GOP running someone who was nearly beyond the pale by Alabama standards much less human ones, the dems running someone who had actually done a goddamn thing for PoC, who once again took one for the team in coming out in historic numbers to carry the ball, along with a heightened environment due to Trump trying to rampage his way into authoritarianism. Change any of those factors and the GOP keeps the seat in comfortable fashion. The issue is going to be the lessons that dems should learn from this election and will inevitably fail to: that engaging with the historically disenfranchised is a good thing and throwing all of their support into trying to pick off the rare GOP voter who takes a step back from staring into the abyss is a fools' errand. The dems usual centrist trash playbook didn't win a drat vote; it was the ground game, fully black owned and operated, that got the job done. And it was in full knowledge that there's not going to be a pot of gold at the end of this rainbow. The GOP outright hates PoC, the dems only consider them a useful tool. It'd be amazing what could happen if a political party came about that actually gave a poo poo about minorities beyond taking them for granted but I'm not gonna hold my breath there. We also need to realize that Moore was an astoundingly bad candidate beyond his pedophilia and xenophobia. His campaign was a clusterfuck of people who've drunk the far-right kool-aid and thought that they didn't even need to show up to win, and they were nearly right. Luther Strange wins that race, not in blowout fashion but comfortable enough for pundits to keep their narrative that the dems might have a chance at not getting their asses completely kicked in 2018, ignoring that the dems Are A Waste and will find ways to lose winnable races. This is another GOP Own Goal similar to their failure to repeal the ACA and if you really want to reach for a silver lining, it could be that we've seen that there is such a thing as someone too revolting for even deep south Republicans to vote for, which might be bad for future dem elections but it serves to raise the bar a hair which is good all around. It messes with the GOP's electoral math a little bit, not enough to stop the tax bill and the map is still real bad for dems in 2018 but it's slightly better than it was on Monday. If you want to bury Steve Bannon for ruining things go for it, but he still got Trump in office and that has far-reaching consequences that a bad Senator from a blood-red state. The real lesson to be learned here is that white males continue to be a cancer on the face of this country and this planet and nothing will truly improve until we exterminate every single last one of them. The way forward is only through women and PoC. There is no reason for the dems to run a white male for any national or statewide office in 2018, in 2020, going forward. They are not allies, they are not helpful, they are not needed, they are not wanted. The sooner they're all gone, the better. The dems didn't win last night. The GOP lost and PoC won.
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Dec 13, 2017 19:58
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Good lord they’re dumb if they’re going to back off from this. gently caress the Republicans, if they want Dem votes they can protect DREAMers and gently caress their wall too.
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Dec 13, 2017 20:00
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C. Everett Koop posted:, the dems running someone who had actually done a goddamn thing for PoC, . . . . I think one of the core lessons is candidate credibility. The Democrats need to run candidates who can prove they care about and will defend the civil rights of minority groups. One way to do that is by being a member of a minority group (Obama, Hillary), the other is by having a proven record of concrete action defending PoC (Doug Jones). I don't think they need to purge all white dudes from the party but they do need to make sure that every white dude they nominate has proven and provable credibility.
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Dec 13, 2017 20:17
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Lightning Knight posted:Good lord they’re dumb if they’re going to back off from this. gently caress the Republicans, if they want Dem votes they can protect DREAMers and gently caress their wall too.
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Dec 13, 2017 20:21
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:One way to do that is by being a member of a minority group (Obama, Hillary) What minority is Hillary a part of (other than women being underrepresented in government)?
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Dec 13, 2017 20:29
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Am I missing the substance in here? Border security and Dreamer legal status don't seem to have anything significant to do with each other Last I'd read, the caucus was still going to hold out
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Dec 13, 2017 20:34
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Azhais posted:What minority is Hillary a part of (other than women being underrepresented in government)? I mean that is the answer? Why do you need two?
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Dec 13, 2017 20:35
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https://twitter.com/samswey/status/940932262689935360
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Dec 13, 2017 20:35
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twodot posted:I'd wait to see what "border security" means. I realize from Republicans it's always just racism, but there isn't anything inherently bad about understanding/controlling what's crossing the border. I had always assumed the government funding thing was just a transparent bluff, running on "Not only did we not get anything on immigration, we shut down the government while not getting anything" wouldn't be smart. “Increased border security” is code for “more security contracts for Halliburton.” gently caress anti-immigration people and gently caress their dumb hand outs to military contractors to poo poo on refugees. The whole thing is dumb and the Dems should take a hard line on it. If the Republicans don’t want the government to shut down, they have a majority.
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Dec 13, 2017 20:41
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Alter Ego posted:Why is it any less impressive that Democrats beat him? If anything, Moore's mere presence in a general reflects poorly on Republicans, but in a state this blood-red, the election was never ever going to be a runaway for a Democrat. Hell, it wasn't even supposed to be close. Moore was supposed to be declared the winner as soon as the polls closed. Why does anybody think making this argument has any bearing on the fact that there were nearly Seven hundred thousand US citizens that were A-okay with Roy Moore as their candidate. I mean, the guy straight up had people supporting him saying it was okay for him to date 14 year-olds as long as he had the permission of their parents. He lost, sure, and by enough of a margin that a recount isn't going to happen, but not by a comfortable enough margin for anybody to be really happy about it. We dodged a bullet, but haven't actually been saved from anything yet because there is still a loaded gun pointed at each and every person in this country that isn't towing the Republican/White Nationalist/Nazi line.
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Dec 13, 2017 20:49
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Azhais posted:What minority is Hillary a part of (other than women being underrepresented in government)? Women are a sociological minority, in that they have less power in society and are systemically marginalized, even if numerically they are a majority. Unrelated: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2017/12/what-doug-jones-and-the-democrats-owe-black-voters.html
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Dec 13, 2017 20:57
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Lightning Knight posted:
quote:Across Alabama, observers reported efforts to discourage black voting, from police officers entering polling stations in predominantly black areas to search for voters with outstanding warrants, I can't stop staring at this.
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Dec 13, 2017 21:03
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Oh Snapple! posted:I can't stop staring at this. Pretty loving pathetic that the US probably ought to have UN observers at all our major elections and yet here we are.
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Dec 13, 2017 21:10
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Lightning Knight posted:Pretty loving pathetic that the US probably ought to have UN observers at all our major elections and yet here we are. I'm not sure the UN has enough non-US observers to cover the US
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Dec 13, 2017 21:12
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Oh Snapple! posted:I can't stop staring at this. Yep welcome to the south. It sucks here, but I am hopeful that people will see that if you go out and vote, change can happen
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Dec 13, 2017 21:13
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C. Everett Koop posted:And there were also polls that people who made up their minds in the past few days broke hard for Moore, because the GOP Base Always Comes Home. Kraftwerk fucked around with this message at 21:21 on Dec 13, 2017 |
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Dec 13, 2017 21:14
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Lightning Knight posted:Pretty loving pathetic that the US probably ought to have UN observers at all our major elections and yet here we are. Yeah, we need somebody to come in and watch things after the Trump Administration moved to shut the Election Assistance Commission down back in February.
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Dec 13, 2017 21:15
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Azhais posted:I'm not sure the UN has enough non-US observers to cover the US We should recruit Palestinian and black South African observers for the US, the commentary would be incredible.
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Dec 13, 2017 21:17
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Lightning Knight posted:We should recruit Palestinian and black South African observers for the US, the commentary would be incredible. You'd really have to wonder how that would go down in a country where the police threatening to lock up people chanting at a protest against a tax bill is several degrees short of 'mild'.
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Dec 13, 2017 21:19
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