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Jordan more recently has been trying to find a "middle-course" over the Jerusalem issue in particular. I could see them trying to keep their head down. Bahrain is probably closer to the Saudis, but they also (like Egypt) financially dependent on the Saudis while much of their population is actively hostile. I think the major hurdle between Iran/Turkey was over Assad, and once Turkey backed down over removing him I think the major source of contention was gone. Right now they have a common enemy, and don't seem to step on each other's toes too much. Also, the Kurdish issue also unites them.
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Dec 14, 2017 15:25
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Ardennes posted:Jordan more recently has been trying to find a "middle-course" ... Jordan has always, as a matter of policy, tried to find the middle course. However they're small, poor, weak, never got any oil, and the Hashemites have one by one lost the territories that gave them any claim to leadership in the Muslim World, so they are somewhat at the mercy of their bigger buddies.
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Dec 14, 2017 17:45
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https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/941297042009280512 Meanwhile in Afghanistan.
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Dec 14, 2017 18:07
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/ArifCRafiq/status/941297042009280512 Super cool of Turkey to provide refuge to a rapist. Just looked him up, and his forces seem to have suffocated 2000 Taliban prisoners early in the war too--great guy!
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Dec 14, 2017 18:23
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This should not be taken lightly. Dostum flipping is what finally turned the tide against the Najibullah government, and the Uzbek community of Afghanistan generally follows Dostum's lead. That's about 10% of the population of Afghanistan.
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Dec 14, 2017 22:18
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I can't wait for the tens of thousands of Iranian trained and experienced Shia militia to go back to Afghanistan and start Afghan Hezbollah.
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Dec 14, 2017 22:52
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Ardennes posted:I think the major hurdle between Iran/Turkey was over Assad, and once Turkey backed down over removing him I think the major source of contention was gone. Right now they have a common enemy, and don't seem to step on each other's toes too much. Also, the Kurdish issue also unites them. I imagine some common objectives were agreed to in the Sochi talks outside of Syria. I'd love to know what they were. IMHO, Erdogan has been seeking whatever the most advantage is he can find (for what or whom IDK). I don't think anyone expects to trust him on the timescale of 2-3 years. If anyone knows better about what Turkey's goals are, I'd love to read! Throatwarbler posted:I can't wait for the tens of thousands of Iranian trained and experienced Shia militia to go back to Afghanistan and start Afghan Hezbollah. An organization like that wouldn't be possibly IMHO in Afghanistan. If anything that kinda had been the Northern Alliance, of which Dostum was a leader of. That said, I'd put money on it. Depending on how things play in Syria as the national government restores itself, it might be a smart move for Tehran to deescalate there as assurances become solvent. Whether or not it'd be a smart move to send them to Afghanistan depends on how limited their mission would be. Iran was using a lot of Afghani conscripts in Syria, so there'd be plenty of room for promotions if they return to Afghanistan to engage enemy forces there. Iran operating north of the Kush would be like a homecoming.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:22
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people say Hideo Kojima's ideas in metal gear solid 4 concerning the war economy are far fetched but the fact that we're 16 years into afghanistan and the taliban now got fresh help and now Erik Prince wants to turn it into his mercenary playground with no end in sight.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:23
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Sinteres posted:Super cool of Turkey to provide refuge to a rapist. Just looked him up, and his forces seem to have suffocated 2000 Taliban prisoners early in the war too--great guy! Turkey has done much more than provide Dostum refuge. He’s been their man in Kabul for a long time, probably got money and arms from them in the civil war, and I read an editorial by a US Congresswoman that was really pro Dostum I suspect due to the influence of Turkish lobbying.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:24
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Al-Saqr posted:people say Hideo Kojima's ideas are far fetched but the fact that we're 16 years into afghanistan and the taliban now got fresh help and now Erik Prince wants to turn it into his mercenary playground with no end in sight. who knew that afghanistan was unconquerable? it's a surprise for everyone
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Dec 14, 2017 23:25
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Sinteres posted:Super cool of Turkey to provide refuge to a rapist. Just looked him up, and his forces seem to have suffocated 2000 Taliban prisoners early in the war too--great guy! They exiled loving Dostum? That guy is a real piece of work. He's worked for every side, betrayed every side. He's been sitting in government only because he's a powerful warlord and too dangerous not to have on-side.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:28
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lollontee posted:who knew that afghanistan was unconquerable? it's a surprise for everyone it's not that it's unconquerable its that the stars are aligning for a mercenary forever war that people thought was really far fetched.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:35
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[quote="“Count Roland”" post="“479353954”"] They exiled loving Dostum? That guy is a real piece of work. He’s worked for every side, betrayed every side. He’s been sitting in government only because he’s a powerful warlord and too dangerous not to have on-side. [/quote] He’s been in in exile for over a year now after he raped a district governor. This is actually the second time he has gone into exile for raping one of his ostensible subordinates.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:43
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guidoanselmi posted:I imagine some common objectives were agreed to in the Sochi talks outside of Syria. I'd love to know what they were. Granted, I think pretty much all the alliances involved (expect maybe the Israeli-US alliance) are pretty ad hoc and open to change. That said, Iran and Turkey probably see fairly eye to eye on the Kurdistan/Qatar/Palestine and both of them aren't big fans of either the US or the Saudis. I don't know if that makes then BFFs, again something more like co-belligerents. Also, Russia seems to be very interested in pulling a bunch of strings across the region and Turkish-Iranian cooperation seems to work (also Russia simultaneously still has decent relations with both Israel and the Saudis.) I think his dream is to bring Turkey back closer to its influence in the Middle East, part of that plan is regional cooperation as well as developing an independent arms industry. I don't think Erdogan wants to leave NATO, if anything I think he is going to twist the knife much as possible to exact as many concessions as possible while technically staying in and enjoying its benefits. It is why it is so awkward to "call" Turkey and the AKP part out because there is no way to get rid of them or really even cut them off. I wonder if the Saudis are going to eventually call us in to solve their mess in Yemen, literally no one else wants the job.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:44
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Ardennes posted:I don't think Erdogan wants to leave NATO, if anything I think he is going to twist the knife much as possible to exact as many concessions as possible while technically staying in and enjoying its benefits. It is why it is so awkward to "call" Turkey and the AKP part out because there is no way to get rid of them or really even cut them off. I'm not as sure about this part. The cooperation with Russia has been pretty blatant lately, including a major purchase of the S-400. If you're buying a weapons systems from the guy NATO was designed to fight, which doesn't really seem to have a target that makes sense other than other NATO countries (nobody in the Middle East is attacking Turkey, unless Erdogan's planning on starting a war with Israel) it's hard to say you're making much effort to remain an ally in good standing.
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Dec 14, 2017 23:47
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Sinteres posted:I'm not as sure about this part. The cooperation with Russia has been pretty blatant lately, including a major purchase of the S-400. If you're buying a weapons systems from the guy NATO was designed to fight, which doesn't really seem to have a target that makes sense other than other NATO countries (nobody in the Middle East is attacking Turkey, unless Erdogan's planning on starting a war with Israel) it's hard to say you're making much effort to remain an ally in good standing. I think Erdogan is trying to make the point he can be an "ally" in "bad standing" and still get most of what he wants. Granted, Western arms companies will generally sell arms to whomever they can and Turkey's exist in NATO complicates sanctions/embargos especially if it only comes from the US. It is still possible for Turkey to get sanctioned by the US and then keep on European/Russian weapons while producing much of what he needs domestically.
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Dec 15, 2017 00:06
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Ardennes posted:I think Erdogan is trying to make the point he can be an "ally" in "bad standing" and still get most of what he wants. Granted, Western arms companies will generally sell arms to whomever they can and Turkey's exist in NATO complicates sanctions/embargos especially if it only comes from the US. It is still possible for Turkey to get sanctioned by the US and then keep on European/Russian weapons while producing much of what he needs domestically. It's not like anyone can do anything about it as long has Turkey has a monopoly on the biggest WMD to threaten the NATO alliance since the cold war. Syrian refugees
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Dec 15, 2017 00:10
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guidoanselmi posted:I imagine some common objectives were agreed to in the Sochi talks outside of Syria. I'd love to know what they were. The Hazara are a despised minority in Afghanistan and live in discrete areas where they can easily rally fighters for local defense, against Sunni taliban and IS who literally want to behead them. THey are obviously not going to take over the whole country like Lebanon but with experienced and trained leaders and support from Iran (weapons, money and safe havens on the Iranian side) they are basically going to rule the Hazara areas now that the American puppet government can't even control Kabul. quote:I'm not as sure about this part. The cooperation with Russia has been pretty blatant lately, including a major purchase of the S-400. If you're buying a weapons systems from the guy NATO was designed to fight, which doesn't really seem to have a target that makes sense other than other NATO countries (nobody in the Middle East is attacking Turkey, unless Erdogan's planning on starting a war with Israel) it's hard to say you're making much effort to remain an ally in good standing. Turkey has actually fought a war against another NATO country though.
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Dec 15, 2017 00:25
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Afghanistan is unconquerable largely because it's a battleground for proxy wars. If Iran were to attempt to create a Hezbollah there, the proxy war would be between Iran and Pakistan.
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Dec 15, 2017 02:10
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Cat Mattress posted:Afghanistan is unconquerable largely because it's a battleground for proxy wars. If Iran were to attempt to create a Hezbollah there, the proxy war would be between Iran and Pakistan. There aren't really enough Shia to create an Afghan Hezbollah. They're just too outnumbered. I'm not going to say targeting civilian infrastructure is good, but crying "how dare they attack an airport!?" after all the infrastructure the Saudis have bombed in Yemen is such bullshit. https://twitter.com/stcolumbia/status/941485663794401280 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:22 on Dec 15, 2017 |
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Dec 15, 2017 03:17
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Everything is bullshit.
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Dec 15, 2017 03:33
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Sinteres posted:There aren't really enough Shia to create an Afghan Hezbollah. They're just too outnumbered. I can understand why some people might say Collin Powell is a role model, but not at that one moment.
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Dec 15, 2017 05:57
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guidoanselmi posted:I can understand why some people might say Collin Powell is a role model, but not at that one moment. I was at the latest 10 when Colin Powell was in office so I have no idea what this is referring to
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Dec 15, 2017 06:17
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Here’s an article in National Review written by bald neocon gently caress David French lamenting the world’s lack of recognition of the US’s “defeating” of ISIS. What if America Won a War and No One Cared? Doesnt even mention the actual forces that fought on the ground against ISIS aside from a pithy reference to American allies.
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Dec 15, 2017 07:00
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How different would CHP or Aksener really be FP-wise if there are real elections and they get in? Less outbursts and calling random European politicians Nazis, but also less willing to host millions of Syrians forever. Definitely not ready to go along with America arming the wink-wink, nudge-nudge, we swear it's not the PKK. Not anti-Russia, not completely silent over Gulen or Palestine either. Erdogan is ripping civil society apart and he's not actually good but I tend to believe his positions are pretty mainstream
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Dec 15, 2017 07:23
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Sinteres posted:There aren't really enough Shia to create an Afghan Hezbollah. They're just too outnumbered. There's a whole photo and video set here: https://www.dvidshub.net/feature/iranianviolations Of course, none of these objects were shown in the locations they were originally recovered from, so their value as evidence is actually much less than they would want them to be.
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Dec 15, 2017 07:49
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Sergg posted:This should not be taken lightly. Dostum flipping is what finally turned the tide against the Najibullah government, and the Uzbek community of Afghanistan generally follows Dostum's lead. That's about 10% of the population of Afghanistan. one more reason blowing Massoud to smithereens was the second most successful operation in Al Qaeda history
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Dec 15, 2017 07:52
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Moatman posted:I was at the latest 10 when Colin Powell was in office so I have no idea what this is referring to His speech to the UN on Iraq WMD.  I'm not even saying that Iran didn't supply parts/technology, more that something like this is eerily reminiscent. In the context of the Bush and now Trump administrations I don't see how anyone non-aligned will view this with any credulity.
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Dec 15, 2017 08:17
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guidoanselmi posted:His speech to the UN on Iraq WMD. Powell wasnt pitching war. He was pitching Breaking Bad.
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Dec 15, 2017 13:04
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Brother Friendship posted:Everything is bullshit. Darkman Fanpage posted:Here’s an article in National Review written by bald neocon gently caress David French lamenting the world’s lack of recognition of the US’s “defeating” of ISIS. guidoanselmi posted:I can understand why some people might say Collin Powell is a role model, but not at that one moment.
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Dec 15, 2017 13:27
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Toplowtech posted:
Well there is this 
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Dec 15, 2017 15:51
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so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
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Gosh, with how close that red line is the the top, I bet Iran must have like a hundred nukes by now!
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Dec 15, 2017 15:51
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Retarded Goatee posted:Well there is this
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Dec 15, 2017 16:00
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Toplowtech posted:Yes, but even i have to admit, it is nice transparent bullshit. But "JUST IMAGINE if houthis was hiding up your rear end, Europe" would work better at this point. It was transparent bullshit the last time around and like 90% of the US bought it. "Don't want the smoking gun to be a mushroom cloud" all over again.
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Dec 15, 2017 16:08
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Hasn't the "Any Day Now" crowd said Iran was six weeks away from a nuclear bomb since, like, 1980 or something? I imagine by now Iran must have like a hundred billion nuclear bombs and any attempt at attacking them will provoke a chain reaction of all these nukes going off together, pulverizing the entire planet Earth.
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Dec 15, 2017 16:45
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Yeah, Iran will always be "6 weeks away from a bomb" just like Japan or any country with a decently advanced civilian nuclear sector. This will always piss off "USISA," but partly because by the time an actual major campaign can be launched against Iran, they would also have enough time to develop a bomb.
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Dec 15, 2017 16:59
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Cat Mattress posted:Hasn't the "Any Day Now" crowd said Iran was six weeks away from a nuclear bomb since, like, 1980 or something? I imagine by now Iran must have like a hundred billion nuclear bombs and any attempt at attacking them will provoke a chain reaction of all these nukes going off together, pulverizing the entire planet Earth. https://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2015/09/18/440567960/born-in-the-u-s-a-how-america-created-irans-nuclear-program quote:"It started in 1957," he says, "and ironically, it is a creation of the United States. The U.S. provided Iran with its first research reactor — a nuclear reactor, a 5-megawatt nuclear reactor that is still functioning and still operational in Tehran." 
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Dec 15, 2017 18:35
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Does Pakistan qualify for this thread? https://www.dawn.com/news/1372856/ https://www.dawn.com/news/1376718/pakistan-could-lose-territory-to-terrorists-us US rhetoric against Pakistan has been getting stronger in the past few months. Seems like good staging for a 2-front war with Iran. /s
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Dec 15, 2017 23:17
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svenkatesh posted:Does Pakistan qualify for this thread? Tough talk has been part of the US-Pakistan relationship for decades now. Everyone knows they're lovely allies who play both sides (much like the KSA and Turkey), but they're too valuable to push away so the occasional slap on the wrist is all it ever comes to. E. I just realized the "they" in this post could just as easily mean the US. Duckbox fucked around with this message at 01:22 on Dec 16, 2017 |
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Dec 16, 2017 01:01
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At a time when the US is flowing even more forces to Afghanistan, truly and severely pissing on Pakistan would be a poor choice.
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