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Mr.Tophat
Apr 7, 2007

You clearly don't understand joke development :justpost:

Ubik_Lives posted:

Revenge works best when it doesn't involve your own suicide.

Ishmael is gunna kick your rear end

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Sickening
Jul 16, 2007

Black summer was the best summer.

Chalks posted:

CIG's financial context is pretty important to consider here. During the first year or two of crowd funding CIG generated a substantial cash reserve, maybe 30 million dollars - but since then they've expanded rapidly, spending money left and right causing them to burn through a substantial amount of their reserves.

Someone in this thread used their reported financials to estimate running costs in 2016 calculating that they made a $4 million loss that year. 2016 was their most profitable year - and none of these calculations take into account additional costs such as paying A list celebs to waddle around in ping pong ball covered jump suites on camera. 2017 was what, $2 mil short of their 2016 income so that's a $6 mil loss.

They're burning through their cash reserves extremely rapidly - they even took out a loan last year for 4 million as basically an advance on a tax rebate they were getting. The collateral for that loan? Everything. All the IP for the game, all the code, everything they've ever made.

Crytek might want a quick settlement from CIG, CIG might even want to give them a quick settlement, but how much cash is even available to give them? And if they give it to them, who will pay their future development costs?

Right now CIG can probably survive 2018 if their sales are good and are likely to run out of money in 2019. Bad sales in 2018 means they'll run out of money before then. Once the money starts running out, the job cuts come, the poo poo starts getting pushed to "beta" then to "release" way before it's ready. The whole poo poo show is over.

The idea of CIG giving up any sizeable chunk of cash in a settlement is probably unthinkable at this point. It's possible that their only way to survive 2018 is intact is to win this suit.

It also doesn't take in account for how much Roberts and his Wife have payed themselves off the top. I doubt they have had the self control probably took millions right away. Didn't we have early reports that they payed themselves retroactively after the project was funded?

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."

Mr.Tophat posted:

Ishmael is gunna kick your rear end

Azazel works too.

Tiiiiiiime is on Skadden's side...yes it is!

CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 16:17 on Jan 5, 2018

EminusSleepus
Sep 28, 2015

I'm calling it now, you can screenshot this poo poo:

The Skadden lawyer who will represent Crytek is a disgruntled Star Citizen completion is the backer who is also a goon


The FFKK lawyer who will represent CIG is a Star Citizen completionist backer who is a sperg

Dusty Lens
Jul 1, 2015

All Glory unto the Stimpire. Give up your arms and legs and embrace the beautiful agony of electricity that doubles in pain every second.

Sickening posted:

It also doesn't take in account for how much Roberts and his Wife have payed themselves off the top. I doubt they have had the self control probably took millions right away. Didn't we have early reports that they payed themselves retroactively after the project was funded?

I'm guessing between the two of them they're looking at cumulative tenth lay.

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."

EminusSleepus posted:

I'm calling it now, you can screenshot this poo poo:

The Skadden lawyer who will represent Crytek is a disgruntled Star Citizen completion is the backer who is also a goon


The FFKK lawyer who will represent CIG is a Star Citizen completionist backer who is a sperg

The universe is, sadly, too cruel to provide this level of poetic justice.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Sickening posted:

It also doesn't take in account for how much Roberts and his Wife have payed themselves off the top. I doubt they have had the self control probably took millions right away. Didn't we have early reports that they payed themselves retroactively after the project was funded?

I wouldn't doubt it.

If I was to take a guess, looking at that 4 million loan and its collateral I'd say CIG is basically running on empty right now. I just don't see a scenario where they take a loan like that if they had another choice. You just don't take a loan like that out if you have more than that in cash available, the only thing that makes sense is that without that loan they wouldn't have enough money to continue operating.

This year they have to pay back that loan on top of all their existing costs. Maybe the Crytek suit will end up being irrelevant if they were going to go bust this year regardless.

AP
Jul 12, 2004

One Ring to fool them all
One Ring to find them
One Ring to milk them all
and pockets fully line them
Grimey Drawer

Chalks posted:

They're burning through their cash reserves extremely rapidly - they even took out a loan last year for 4 million as basically an advance on a tax rebate they were getting. The collateral for that loan? Everything. All the IP for the game, all the code, everything they've ever made.

This is all guesswork, I certainly don't recall anyone narrowing the Coutts loan down to 4 million, $ or £.

Yes, they are burning a lot of cash and have been for years but idiots have been giving them more cash, it's entirely possible that there are other loans or (idiot) investors that we don't know about.

In my opinion the Crytek case is going to come down purely to if Crytek decide to settle for low millions or take it into discovery and run the real risk of getting nothing. Considering how unprofessional CIG has been for years, I fully expect discovery to break CIG. Even if Crytek just took a chunk of cash that would likely mean mass layoffs due to the impact on whatever reserve they have left.

The only way I can see CIG lasting to the end of 2018 is Chris Roberts finding some very rich idiot/s willing to bankroll CIG and unlikely as that may seem in 2018, it's not totally impossible.

That's all assuming the Crytek allegations are accurate.

Mr.Tophat
Apr 7, 2007

You clearly don't understand joke development :justpost:
Chris played monopoly with himself, but with Cyrek as the banker and Derek as free parking

big nipples big life
May 12, 2014

Almost every time someone does a workup of their burn rate they are always careful to shoot for minimums but one look at the LA office and Chris and Sandi's antics says they don't do the minimum anything. Also, as someone pointed out, no one ever tries to figure out one time expenses like name actors in ping pong suits or research trips to Monaco or the Italian coast.

I'd be willing to bet a lot of money they have been operating int he red since at least 2015 if not 2014.

Mr.Tophat
Apr 7, 2007

You clearly don't understand joke development :justpost:
Sandi is the bitch he moves around, bored

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

AP posted:

This is all guesswork, I certainly don't recall anyone narrowing the Coutts loan down to 4 million, $ or £.

Yes, they are burning a lot of cash and have been for years but idiots have been giving them more cash, it's entirely possible that there are other loans or (idiot) investors that we don't know about.

In my opinion the Crytek case is going to come down to purely to if Crytek decide settle for low millions or take it into discovery and run the real risk of getting nothing. Considering how unprofessional CIG has been for years, I fully expect discovery to break CIG. Even if Crytek just took a chunk of cash that would likely mean mass layoffs due to the impact on whatever reserve they have left.

The only way I can see CIG lasting to the end of 2018 is Chris Roberts finding some very rich idiot/s willing to bankroll CIG and unlikely as that may seem in 2018, it's not totally impossible.

That's all assuming the Crytek allegations are accurate.

They stated that the Coutts loan was to offset their UK tax rebate, which is valued at $4 million ish. They might have been lying about the purpose and therefore the amount, but estimating things gets a bit too complex if you consider everyone might be lying.

As for other loans - you can't double up on collateral. If they'd taken other loans, the collateral would need to be something that isn't included in the Coutts deal and that seemed to cover just about everything. Re-mortgaging their properties perhaps.

Either way, if the Crytek suit gets to court discovery will tell us exactly what funds they're fighting over.

Dusty Lens
Jul 1, 2015

All Glory unto the Stimpire. Give up your arms and legs and embrace the beautiful agony of electricity that doubles in pain every second.

big nipples big life posted:

Almost every time someone does a workup of their burn rate they are always careful to shoot for minimums but one look at the LA office and Chris and Sandi's antics says they don't do the minimum anything. Also, as someone pointed out, no one ever tries to figure out one time expenses like name actors in ping pong suits or research trips to Monaco or the Italian coast.

I'd be willing to bet a lot of money they have been operating int he red since at least 2015 if not 2014.

CIG is 3 months from bankruptcy is our version of 3.0 is coming out and will fix everything.

Mr.Tophat
Apr 7, 2007

You clearly don't understand joke development :justpost:
All this money is well spent, and it's a deep well

big nipples big life
May 12, 2014

Dusty Lens posted:

CIG is 3 months from bankruptcy is our version of 3.0 is coming out and will fix everything.

Nah, they bring in enough to keep afloat for a long time. They are so bloated as a company they can quietly cut costs for awhile and they probably had a big stack of cash before they grew to the point that whale sales weren't covering monthly costs.

Toops
Nov 5, 2015

-find mood stabilizers
-also,

Ubik_Lives posted:

legal conjecture

If I were Crytek, my goals would be threefold, in order of importance:
1. Punish CIG for being a terrible partner, callously violating IP, contractual, and personal agreements, and ghosting me. There is personal.
2. Publicly expose CIG's incompetence as a means of protecting my brand.
3. Make a few ends as I breeze through

CIG has gone on the record multiple times and indirectly implied, if not openly decried, that CryEngine can't handle "The Vision." And more generally, Crytek wouldn't want to be associated with what may possibly be the biggest and most historic failure in video games history.

Still, my overall prediction remains this thing is gonna wind up being a comedy nothingburger. It'll all get mangled up in dumb legal bullshit and we won't hear anything. CIG will keep plodding along building nothing to the rousing standing ovation of mentally ill backers crying tears of pure stardreams.

EminusSleepus
Sep 28, 2015

Dusty Lens posted:

CIG is 3 months from bankruptcy is our version of 3.0 is coming out and will fix everything.

Don't forget to add 2 weeks for posterity sake

big nipples big life
May 12, 2014

The biggest cost, salaries, has probably been dropping as competent folks leave and get replaced with people who pulled a 1.8 GPA at full sail.

EminusSleepus
Sep 28, 2015

big nipples big life posted:

The biggest cost, salaries, has probably been dropping as competent folks leave and get replaced with people who pulled a 1.8 GPA at full sail.

Yes the biggest cost now is salary, last time it was Ben's food allowance

Crazypoops
Jul 17, 2017



Comedy Option

Crytek gets most of CIG's money, team is shrunk down to small group, Chris becomes recluse from depression, game actually gets made and is good, Chris and Eric take credit.

big nipples big life
May 12, 2014

You can probably score garbage bags full of prep table scrapings from cheesecake factory pretty cheap.

Toops
Nov 5, 2015

-find mood stabilizers
-also,

Dusty Lens posted:

CIG is 3 months from bankruptcy is our version of 3.0 is coming out and will fix everything.

According to Goon estimates, CIG should answer the bankruptcy filing in 2015 2016 2017 2018

AP
Jul 12, 2004

One Ring to fool them all
One Ring to find them
One Ring to milk them all
and pockets fully line them
Grimey Drawer

Chalks posted:

They stated that the Coutts loan was to offset their UK tax rebate, which is valued at $4 million ish. They might have been lying about the purpose and therefore the amount, but estimating things gets a bit too complex if you consider everyone might be lying.

CIG has a very distant relationship with the truth and logically putting everything on the line for only $4 million never made sense unless they were almost tapped out already. That's why I don't believe it without some other indication of the amount.

Mr.Tophat
Apr 7, 2007

You clearly don't understand joke development :justpost:
"CIG 'em boys," I say to my attack dogs and they jump into action and lick their balls for two weeks

Beet Wagon
Oct 19, 2015





I want to say the amount of the loan (or at least a loan) was revealed in the last round of Foundry 42 public filings, but I could be wrong. That was a while ago.

Bofast
Feb 21, 2011

Grimey Drawer

Xaerael posted:

If THAT happens, they become legally bankrupt, lose all their material assets to liquidation, and the upper echelon are probably slapped with restraints on setting up shop again till their debts are paid.

So in that case, this may become a reality sooner rather than later...



:vince:

AP
Jul 12, 2004

One Ring to fool them all
One Ring to find them
One Ring to milk them all
and pockets fully line them
Grimey Drawer

Beet Wagon posted:

I want to say the amount of the loan (or at least a loan) was revealed in the last round of Foundry 42 public filings, but I could be wrong. That was a while ago.

I believe the fact of the loan was, the amount was not, CIG later said it was linked to the UK tax rebate, but things CIG have said in the past have sometimes turned out to be slightly misleading.

Beet Wagon
Oct 19, 2015





AP posted:

I believe the fact of the loan was, the amount was not, CIG later said it was linked to the UK tax rebate, but things CIG have said in the past have sometimes turned out to be slightly misleading.

That could totally be true also. Honestly you would probably know better than me - as I mentioned before my eyes start to glaze over almost immediately when looking through those documents.

Toops
Nov 5, 2015

-find mood stabilizers
-also,

Chalks posted:

CIG's financial context is pretty important to consider here. During the first year or two of crowd funding CIG generated a substantial cash reserve, maybe 30 million dollars - but since then they've expanded rapidly, spending money left and right causing them to burn through a substantial amount of their reserves.

Someone in this thread used their reported financials to estimate running costs in 2016, calculating that they made a $4 million loss that year. 2016 was their most profitable year - and none of these calculations take into account additional costs such as paying A list celebs to waddle around in ping pong ball covered jump suites on camera. 2017 was what, $2 mil short of their 2016 income so that's a $6 mil loss.

They're burning through their cash reserves extremely rapidly - they even took out a loan last year for 4 million as basically an advance on a tax rebate they were getting. The collateral for that loan? Everything. All the IP for the game, all the code, everything they've ever made.


Crytek might want a quick settlement from CIG, CIG might even want to give them a quick settlement, but how much cash is even available to give them? And if they give it to them, who will pay their future development costs?

Right now CIG can probably survive 2018 if their sales are good and are likely to run out of money in 2019. Bad sales in 2018 means they'll run out of money before then. Once the money starts running out, the job cuts come, the poo poo starts getting pushed to "beta" then to "release" way before it's ready. The whole poo poo show is over.

The idea of CIG giving up any sizeable chunk of cash in a settlement is probably unthinkable at this point. It's possible that their only way to survive 2018 is intact is to win this suit.


I don't mean to belabor the point, and I say this with love: I've bolded the parts of this post that are pure conjecture with no reliable data to back it up.

Look, we can't on one hand claim that CIG habitually lies, then turn right around and take "We have 400 people working for us!" as fact. We don't get to pick and choose what data are reliable. If they lie, then we need hard evidence to form a working theory. If CIG's word is no good, then we don't really have much to go on, as evidenced by literal years of this thread "calling" CIG's bankruptcy, and yet here they are.

Let's all agree on this right now: We don't have any actual visibility into their balance sheet. We're gluing crumbs together and trying to make a cake. As an abridged list:

- We don't know how many people CIG has employed, currently employ, or will employ in the future, nor their pay scales, benefits, etc.
- We don't know their CapEx or their OpEx.
- We don't know their cash position.
- We don't know anything about CIG's lines of credit outside of "some" dollars from Coutts.
- We don't know how many wild-eyed people whose parents recently died and left them the house have privately invested.

TheAgent
Feb 16, 2002

The call is coming from inside Dr. House
Grimey Drawer
hmm here's my proof

chris roberts is a loving corrupt moron

I now enter this post as evidence, please contact me on twitter if you need further testimony

Orions Lord
May 21, 2012


Derek Guevara.

Lladre
Jun 28, 2011


Soiled Meat
Why do companies take out loans?

Generally it is because they are trying to add some infrastructure/acquire assets or they are having cash flow issues and need to make sure they can cover payroll.

Maybe the loan was to buy and outfit that Winslow office?

What does your heart tell you?

Mirificus
Oct 29, 2004

Kings need not raise their voices to be heard




AP
Jul 12, 2004

One Ring to fool them all
One Ring to find them
One Ring to milk them all
and pockets fully line them
Grimey Drawer

Toops posted:

I don't mean to belabor the point, and I say this with love: I've bolded the parts of this post that are pure conjecture with no reliable data to back it up.

Look, we can't on one hand claim that CIG habitually lies, then turn right around and take "We have 400 people working for us!" as fact. We don't get to pick and choose what data are reliable. If they lie, then we need hard evidence to form a working theory. If CIG's word is no good, then we don't really have much to go on, as evidenced by literal years of this thread "calling" CIG's bankruptcy, and yet here they are.

Let's all agree on this right now: We don't have any actual visibility into their balance sheet. We're gluing crumbs together and trying to make a cake. As an abridged list:

- We don't know how many people CIG has employed, currently employ, or will employ in the future, nor their pay scales, benefits, etc.
- We don't know their CapEx or their OpEx.
- We don't know their cash position.
- We don't know anything about CIG's lines of credit outside of "some" dollars from Coutts.
- We don't know how many wild-eyed people whose parents recently died and left them the house have privately invested.

I'd agree with this, you can get an idea of the number of staff they have from social media, but even then plenty of CIG staff seem to have side projects, so are they full or part time, it matters. Also I believe several people on linkedin have left and not updated their profiles, something I'm fairly sure CIG actively encourage. AMD obviously gave them some money, maybe Intel did too.

It's also worth remembering that it just takes one secret billionaire who really wants to fly his Bengal space-carrier and this thing could drag on till 2030. Mega rich people can be mega dumb too and Chris Roberts also has a history for finding buyers (Digital Anvil) when the fun times end.

Edit, I still think they are hosed though, but I have been thinking that since December 2013.

AP fucked around with this message at 17:14 on Jan 5, 2018

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."
Beet, rename thread to: Star Citizen - A loving YEAR of hate.

Chalks
Sep 30, 2009

Toops posted:

I don't mean to belabor the point, and I say this with love: I've bolded the parts of this post that are pure conjecture with no reliable data to back it up.

Look, we can't on one hand claim that CIG habitually lies, then turn right around and take "We have 400 people working for us!" as fact. We don't get to pick and choose what data are reliable. If they lie, then we need hard evidence to form a working theory. If CIG's word is no good, then we don't really have much to go on, as evidenced by literal years of this thread "calling" CIG's bankruptcy, and yet here they are.

Let's all agree on this right now: We don't have any actual visibility into their balance sheet. We're gluing crumbs together and trying to make a cake. As an abridged list:

- We don't know how many people CIG has employed, currently employ, or will employ in the future, nor their pay scales, benefits, etc.
- We don't know their CapEx or their OpEx.
- We don't know their cash position.
- We don't know anything about CIG's lines of credit outside of "some" dollars from Coutts.
- We don't know how many wild-eyed people whose parents recently died and left them the house have privately invested.

Yes, it's possible that everything that CIG has ever said is a lie, but if you assume that:

- Their legally mandated tax filings and other financial documents are accurate
- The documentation about the Coutts loan collateral is accurate
- Their claims about the number of employees are generally accurate
- The funding tracker is accurate

You can draw up a fairly vague outline of their cashflow. [from here]

You can tweak the values, throw in an extra million here or there if you'd like, but the trajectory is clear and any sort of settlement with Crytek is going to take an enormous chunk out of their cash reserves and put the entire project at risk. I mean more risk than it's already in.

Like, imagine Crytek request 10% in royalty back payments. A pretty reasonable position considering the royalties CIG would have been paying had they not done a deal would be much higher. That's basically their entire cash reserves up in smoke right there even if you stuff an extra 10 million in there from behind the sofa.

I really don't see CIG being able to settle unless Crytek really believes the game will be released and be a huge success and are willing to delay any repayments until then. loving lol if that's the case.

EminusSleepus
Sep 28, 2015

CrazyLoon posted:

Beet, rename thread to: Star Citizen - A loving YEARS of hate.

FTFY

Toops
Nov 5, 2015

-find mood stabilizers
-also,

Lladre posted:

Why do companies take out loans?

Generally it is because they are trying to add some infrastructure/acquire assets or they are having cash flow issues and need to make sure they can cover payroll.

Maybe the loan was to buy and outfit that Winslow office?

What does your heart tell you?

I never saw the Coutts loan as a harbinger of doom. Yep, companies get loans all the time, typically for capex reasons. When you're international, moving cash around is tricky and unless you're fiscally clever, you'll get killed by corporate taxes, exchange rates, fees, etc.

Is it possible CIG got the loan because they're in bad financial trouble? Sure. But I would like to see some compelling evidence of that, and I do not.

ManofManyAliases
Mar 21, 2016
ToastOfManySmarts


Can't post for 3 hours!

Toops posted:

According to Goon estimates, CIG should answer the bankruptcy filing in 2015 2016 2017 2018

I laughed out loud.

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Sunswipe
Feb 5, 2016

by Fluffdaddy

ManofManyAliases posted:

I laughed out loud.

I bet no one in the CIG offices recognises any sign of happiness now. Ask around for me, Toast.

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