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Biden missed his window. The only way we could win was on momentum from the Obama administration. The issue base is probably going to be substantially different in 2020.
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Jan 17, 2018 21:55
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JeffersonClay posted:The tactic i’m discussing right now is “don’t run candidates that 30% of your base wants to imprison.” Does the same go for "don't run black candidates because 30 percent of Hillary voters think black people are subhuman"? quote:Digging into that survey. It would take about 48 hours of the GOP running "Biden paws pre-teens" ads before those numbers were reversed. But yeah: Never underestimate Democrats in shooting themselves in the feet by favoring a serial-molester grandpa who made student loans & medical debt undischargeable over the socialist grandpa who wants M4A and free public college.
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Jan 17, 2018 21:59
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JeffersonClay posted:Manning is also a terrible choice to try and force the establishment democrat to adopt more leftist positions. The threat is only credible if the insurgent candidate could conceivably win, right? Objectively not. Strategic voting according to rational choice models should be able to induce change even with marginal shifts in equilibrium because as part of implicit voting it is implied that the majority of voters strategically chooses to forgo the opportunity cost of voting for the opposition candidate, and relies on the minority of voters who accept the opportunity cost to send the political message. If the politicians fail to pick up on this message because of its moderate quantitative effects, it is a failure of the system likely to produce more pronounced disruptions in the next election period.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:03
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Democrazy posted:Biden missed his window. The only way we could win was on momentum from the Obama administration. The issue base is probably going to be substantially different in 2020. Biden had the charisma, but his stance with credit card companies said a lot about his economic positions. He wouldn't have been better than Hillary in that respect.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:06
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Reminder that at the beginning of 2006 Joe Lieberman was leading the pack of 2008 contenders. And to go back to the more recent past:  
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Jan 17, 2018 22:09
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Freakazoid_ posted:Biden had the charisma, but his stance with credit card companies said a lot about his economic positions. He wouldn't have been better than Hillary in that respect. He’s less charismatic, I think, when he has to carry the whole show. And I also have a hunch that basically all non-John Hickenlooper candidates are going to have positions lifted from Sanders’ 2016 platform.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:16
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Willa Rogers posted:It would take about 48 hours of the GOP running "Biden paws pre-teens" ads before those numbers were reversed. Yeah I like Onion Biden as a meme but kind of actually gently caress real life Biden, he’s sort of a douche, both politically and because he can’t keep his hands to himself.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:31
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Willa Rogers posted:Does the same go for "don't run black candidates because 30 percent of Hillary voters think black people are subhuman"? No, because 30% of democratic voters do not believe black candidates are all traitors who deserve prison. Indeed black democratic candidates have done very well in primary and general elections in the past decade. The same is not true of heroic felons convicted of espionage. Like by all means run a trans candidate with genuine leftist convictions. Just pick one who’s not hopelessly encumbered by her controversial history in addition to the other hurdles an insurgent leftist trans candidate would face. quote:It would take about 48 hours of the GOP running "Biden paws pre-teens" ads before those numbers were reversed. Yes I’m sure that Alex Jones meme will just explode once the sheeple open their eyes. steinrokkan posted:Objectively not. Strategic voting according to rational choice models should be able to induce change even with marginal shifts in equilibrium because as part of implicit voting it is implied that the majority of voters strategically chooses to forgo the opportunity cost of voting for the opposition candidate, and relies on the minority of voters who accept the opportunity cost to send the political message. If the politicians fail to pick up on this message because of its moderate quantitative effects, it is a failure of the system likely to produce more pronounced disruptions in the next election period. This is true in the general or the primary? Like are you suggesting leftists are going to vote republican or protest vote to send a message if Manning loses? Manning doesn’t even need to run a campaign for that to be true. This is also ignoring the costs to the candidate of adopting the political message, right? How many current voters would have defected had the position in question been adopted? The candidate can only estimate this total, and is forced to guess whether changing positions would result in a net vote share increase. If the “political message” candidate gets destroyed in the primary, there’s not a lot of risk that the candidate will forfeit votes in the future by refusing to adopt the political message. If the political message candidate actually gets a lot of votes, or could even win, the risk that ignoring the political message has electoral consequences is a lot larger.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:34
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“Wait your turn, trannies; and be more respectable about it” (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 17, 2018 22:39
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https://twitter.com/KatzOnEarth/status/953741394501398528
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Jan 17, 2018 22:39
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Jesus Christ. 
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Jan 17, 2018 22:42
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unwantedplatypus posted:“Wait your turn, trannies; and be more respectable about it” It’s this but replace the slur with “heroic convicted felons”.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:46
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JeffersonClay posted:It’s this but replace the slur with “heroic convicted felons”.  JC do you think that what Manning did was cool and good?
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Jan 17, 2018 22:47
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JeffersonClay posted:It’s this but replace the slur with “heroic convicted felons”.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:48
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JeffersonClay posted:It’s this but replace the slur with “heroic convicted felons”. Congratulations on throwing away that ephemeral moment of good will at break neck speed.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:48
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unwantedplatypus posted:“Wait your turn, trannies; and be more respectable about it” Trans status aside, if I were advising Chelsea Manning, I would tell her to get something out there about the incident which led to her conviction while it can still be defined as either a positive or neutral in the electorate.
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Jan 17, 2018 22:48
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Raskolnikov38 posted:sure, hopefully this link works as i know fuckall about dropbox It does work and I'm reading it now, thanks for sharing with me!  https://twitter.com/keithellison/status/953692926978199552 This tweet is extremely   on multiple levels. Even though they're getting arrested. 
Lightning Knight fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Jan 17, 2018 |
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Jan 17, 2018 23:20
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Lightning Knight posted:It does work and I'm reading it now, thanks for sharing with me! getting arrested for a good cause is nothing to be ashamed of
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Jan 17, 2018 23:52
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Oh yeah, let me pile onto that Haiti development with something far, far worse. https://twitter.com/costadaniel/status/953751226851590144
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Jan 17, 2018 23:55
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Lightning Knight posted:
I think leaking the collateral murder video was defensible, even if the way it was done seems pretty harebrained in hindsight, but leaking the diplomatic cables wasn’t.
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Jan 17, 2018 23:56
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Nosfereefer posted:getting arrested for a good cause is nothing to be ashamed of Oh I don't think they should be ashamed, I just wish they weren't arrested. Office Pig posted:Oh yeah, let me pile onto that Haiti development with something far, far worse. Jesus. We're going to be literally sending them into slavery.
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Jan 17, 2018 23:57
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Office Pig posted:Oh yeah, let me pile onto that Haiti development with something far, far worse. Atlantic Slave Trade 2.0 looking good.
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Jan 18, 2018 00:16
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JeffersonClay posted:I think leaking the collateral murder video was defensible, even if the way it was done seems pretty harebrained in hindsight, but leaking the diplomatic cables wasn’t. in her defense on the whole goddamn thing, it wasn't at all clear at that time that Assange was in the process of driving out the actual principled Wikileaks figures, they'd actually been very responsible in terms of redacting sensitive / potentially lethal information in the past she was a little sloppy and indiscriminate, but it's not like she gave all that poo poo to Modern Wikileaks
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Jan 18, 2018 00:42
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Squashing Machine posted:Nah, I'd rather hear more about your insistence that deploying slurs against someone based on their politics is cool, as though it can't possibly be damaging as long as it's coming from another black person Ooh ooh do me next, me next!  Tell me all about what words I can and cannot say based on how straight people have chosen to slur and demean me, I wanna hear all about how the bigots get to control my speech.
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Jan 18, 2018 00:53
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JeffersonClay posted:30 percent of democrats think she's a traitor who should still be in jail. I'm not sure it's a great idea to test their solidarity to that degree. JeffersonClay posted:The tactic i’m discussing right now is “don’t run candidates that 30% of your base wants to imprison.” So candidates should not even run in the primary if you have reason to believe they might lose in the general because parts of the Democratic base could stay home; they have an obligation to step down before they can win and redirect that energy to getting someone else nominated. What an interesting and totally-not-anti-democratic-at-all principle, I can't wait to see you apply it consistently: JeffersonClay posted:Is it bad for people to get really excited about her doomed candidacy? If that manifests as people who would otherwise have voted for Cardin staying home or protest voting then yes, it could be. Uh oh parts of the Democratic base might stay home, looks like Cardin should drop out of the race and start campaigning for his primary opponent pronto!
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Jan 18, 2018 01:01
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VitalSigns posted:Ooh ooh do me next, me next! Sure, why not, except the argument isn't about taking reclamative words away from their groups, it's about not redeploying them against other people in your group that you consider political apostates. Turning slurs into weapons to use against people you disagree within your own group is just repurposing their venom for your own ends, and you're tacitly aligning yourself with the very same bigots you claim to be defying when you do that.
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Jan 18, 2018 01:14
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JeffersonClay, I still haven't seen you establish why it's not inherently good for the best candidate to run for a position.
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Jan 18, 2018 01:19
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This is a bit of a derail but it fits within the overarching thread topic so I wanted to get some opinions. There's an attempt here in Utah to increase the minimum wage from $7.25 to $10+ with additional increases over a couple years. When I was reading up on it, I glanced at many of the comments just to see what people say about it. The overwhelming response I was seeing in the comments is "Minimum wage is not meant to be a livable wage, it's meant to be an entry point for people just starting out in the job market." Of course this being Utah, I'm not surprised by a lot of these types of comments. What I wanna know is is that actually what a majority of people see it as around the rest of the country? It's low because it's only for high schoolers and college kids to get some cash after school? I tried to google for some statistics about how many people working minimum wage jobs are in what age demographics but unfortunately many of the charts and graphs presented were possibly overinformative and difficult to parse. Does anyone have any slightly more reader-friendly statistics they could give me about how many HS/College kids vs how many adults are working minimum wage jobs?
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Jan 18, 2018 01:23
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Historically speaking minimum wage was intended to be a living wage and you can look up FDR quotes to that effect. It became a high schooler's wage when the American economy had a long period of prosperity (ie, roughly, the end of WW2 to the 1970s oil crisis) and that's as far back as idiot boomers can remember. There was a long period of time where the minimum wage was not relevant for most jobs because the market wage was higher anyway.
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Jan 18, 2018 01:29
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:Historically speaking minimum wage was intended to be a living wage and you can look up FDR quotes to that effect. This, about half the people earning minimum wage are above the age of 25. The idea that only kids are doing these jobs and if you're above a certain age you're a failure is pretty vicious, but it's a necessary mental bending of reality for people who don't care who gets screwed as long as they can still order off the dollar menu Edit: Got that statistic from here, seems like a good resource: https://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/minimum-wage/2015/home.htm
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Jan 18, 2018 01:33
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Squashing Machine posted:This, about half the people earning minimum wage are above the age of 25. The idea that only kids are doing these jobs and if you're above a certain age you're a failure is pretty vicious, but it's a necessary mental bending of reality for people who don't care who gets screwed as long as they can still order off the dollar menu I was looking at that Table 1, and the information laid out there is not very easy to parse. I'll take another go at it later this evening once I get home from work. But the quotes from FDR are interesting, I definitely gotta check into those some more.
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Jan 18, 2018 01:40
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khy posted:What I wanna know is is that actually what a majority of people see it as around the rest of the country? It's low because it's only for high schoolers and college kids to get some cash after school? I tried to google for some statistics about how many people working minimum wage jobs are in what age demographics but unfortunately many of the charts and graphs presented were possibly overinformative and difficult to parse. Does anyone have any slightly more reader-friendly statistics they could give me about how many HS/College kids vs how many adults are working minimum wage jobs? Bad people always make this argument because the need to poo poo on people they perceive as below them on the social ladder. It's important that they can punch downwards. That's why they talk poo poo about janitors when you should respect a person who's there to literally clean up your poo poo. edit: To add some data: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/01/04/5-facts-about-the-minimum-wage/
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Jan 18, 2018 01:41
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Squashing Machine posted:Sure, why not, except the argument isn't about taking reclamative words away from their groups, it's about not redeploying them against other people in your group that you consider political apostates. Turning slurs into weapons to use against people you disagree within your own group is just repurposing their venom for your own ends, and you're tacitly aligning yourself with the very same bigots you claim to be defying when you do that. Ohhhhhh yeah that's the stuff  We need more concerned Americans like you to really put gay people in their place. VitalSigns fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Jan 18, 2018 |
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Jan 18, 2018 01:42
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Democrazy posted:Trans status aside, if I were advising Chelsea Manning, I would tell her to get something out there about the incident which led to her conviction while it can still be defined as either a positive or neutral in the electorate. It will never be defined as anything other than a negative. She did more than expose shade stuff, she also exposed sensitive comint sources. Or do you think we shouldn't be intercepting radios in Afghanistan?
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Jan 18, 2018 01:46
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we shouldnt even be in afghanistan unless we're actually going to commit to spending to hundreds of billions of dollars on actual nation-building enterprises rather than scams
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Jan 18, 2018 01:49
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JeffersonClay posted:Manning is also a terrible choice to try and force the establishment democrat to adopt more leftist positions. The threat is only credible if the insurgent candidate could conceivably win, right? Manning cannot. Her opponent can utterly ignore her campaign and not lose a second of sleep worrying about the primary. A leftist candidate with exactly her politics but without her baggage would be much more concerning and therefore effective. Not that I expect Manning to win, but in a state that went 60-33 for Clinton, a Manning that garners enough support to take out an incumbent in a primary would almost certainly have enough support to win a general
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Jan 18, 2018 01:54
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Those diplomatic cables contained vital information about our secret support for crimes against humanity that the public needed to know. Just lol if you hold a terrified Army private in possession of evidence of criminal behavior by her own government which will get her tortured to a higher duty of care than the murderers and war criminals she exposes. Maybe if the government doesn't want sensitive information leaked it should stop retaliating against whistleblowers and stop using classification to cover up unethical behavior in the first place.
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Jan 18, 2018 01:59
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Megaman's Jockstrap posted:Also let's say Biden won, ok great now we're turbo-hosed when he and the Dem party continue to do nothing about any of the underlying problems. Sure we get some nice rhetoric and the good feelings of beating the GOP and then the reality will set in: Biden Dems will continually capitulate to corporations and the mil-industrial complex for 4 more years while literally hundreds of thousands more midwesterners die of opoid overdose and more people end up permanently indebted in poverty with no way out and even more end up hanging by their fingertips over the abyss and forced to bust their asses harder and harder just to keep what they've got. Then Trump 2.0: This Time He's Actually Competent comes along. I don't want to play those odds. Counterpoint: the underlying problem is capitalism and Bernie wasn’t proposing to address that either
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Jan 18, 2018 02:02
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VitalSigns posted:Those diplomatic cables contained vital information about our secret support for crimes against humanity that the public needed to know. Ah yes our secret support of Israel
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Jan 18, 2018 02:07
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VitalSigns posted:So candidates should not even run in the primary if you have reason to believe they might lose in the general because parts of the Democratic base could stay home; they have an obligation to step down before they can win and redirect that energy to getting someone else nominated. I’m struggling to understand where the excitement for a manning candidacy comes from given the unavoidable conclusions that she cannot win the primary or the general election, given the large portion of the democratic base that wants her in a prison cell. Yes, I think her and her supporters’ efforts would be better spent trying to find a leftist insurgent candidate who could conceivably unseat Cardin and go on to win the general election. If this candidate does not exist, I think her and her supporters’ Time would be better spent finding and supporting leftists in local politics so that there might be candidates the next time around. Mornacale posted:JeffersonClay, I still haven't seen you establish why it's not inherently good for the best candidate to run for a position. Being the best candidate requires a plausible path to victory. Manning doesn’t heave one.
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Jan 18, 2018 02:10
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