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Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Ron Jeremy posted:

The bigger risk is sea level rise to the Central Valley right? The delta and Stockton turning into the bay?

modesto? destroyed? please don't get my hopes up

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Ron Jeremy posted:

The bigger risk is sea level rise to the Central Valley right? The delta and Stockton turning into the bay?

Ssoooort of, yeah. Low-lying coastal areas are at risk with fairly modest rises in sea level because sea level is an average, and when storms occur at high tide, you get temporary inundation that can ruin cropland, destroy coastal buildings, etc.

However, the inland bay is largely protected from storm surges, and also a lot of the environments around the bay are already adapted to brackish water conditions. So then the danger is just that with a higher water level in the bay during a storm, rivers feeding the bay flow more slowly and get backed up more easily. Heavy rainfall inland during a storm that also raises the water level in the Bay = major flooding risk.

This can (and already is) managed with flood controls, specifically, the extensive levee system on the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

The city of Stockton is at 13' above sea level; I doubt it's at serious risk of destruction or permanently being turned into part of the Bay during the 21st century, even under the {edit: realistic} worst case scenarios. But I bet there's already lots of studies showing that it's going to become increasingly expensive to cope with floods during the 21st century everywhere in CA that is both low-lying, and adjacent to a major waterway.

Such as: http://www.climatecentral.org/pdfs/SLR-CA-SS-PressRelease.pdf
Which confirms that stockton and sacramento are at significant risk, specifically of their existing levee systems being overwhelmed during storms.

quote:

Using historic local flood statistics plus rapid local sea level rise projections from the National
Research Council, Climate Central’s analysis found that by midcentury, floods would reach
greater than 3 feet above the high tide line every year in San Francisco Bay. By 2070, they
would reach greater than 4 feet every year – or greater than 3 feet annually under a mid-range
sea level rise scenario from the Council. In 75 years of historic observations, the highest-ever
recorded flood in the Bay reached 3.05 feet at the Alameda tide gauge in 1983.

Dirk the Average
Feb 7, 2012

"This may have been a mistake."

You lost me. What is a storm?

The Glumslinger
Sep 24, 2008

Coach Nagy, you want me to throw to WHAT side of the field?


Hair Elf

Dirk the Average posted:

You lost me. What is a storm?

The new conspiracy theory that PizzaGaters have moved onto

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005


Its really crazy to think one weather event could do this

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007

Skyscraper posted:

I'm legitimately surprised that friend Binaryjunky has gone since 2004 without doing something to get perma'd

drat this guy seems badical as h*ck

paranoid randroid
Mar 4, 2007
a Big Dog tshirt where the cool dog has his arms crossed and saying Listen Toots I Post Where I Want and You Can Take That to the Bank

The Wiggly Wizard
Aug 21, 2008


Leperflesh posted:

Ssoooort of, yeah. Low-lying coastal areas are at risk with fairly modest rises in sea level because sea level is an average, and when storms occur at high tide, you get temporary inundation that can ruin cropland, destroy coastal buildings, etc.

However, the inland bay is largely protected from storm surges, and also a lot of the environments around the bay are already adapted to brackish water conditions. So then the danger is just that with a higher water level in the bay during a storm, rivers feeding the bay flow more slowly and get backed up more easily. Heavy rainfall inland during a storm that also raises the water level in the Bay = major flooding risk.

This can (and already is) managed with flood controls, specifically, the extensive levee system on the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta.

The city of Stockton is at 13' above sea level; I doubt it's at serious risk of destruction or permanently being turned into part of the Bay during the 21st century, even under the {edit: realistic} worst case scenarios. But I bet there's already lots of studies showing that it's going to become increasingly expensive to cope with floods during the 21st century everywhere in CA that is both low-lying, and adjacent to a major waterway.

Such as: http://www.climatecentral.org/pdfs/SLR-CA-SS-PressRelease.pdf
Which confirms that stockton and sacramento are at significant risk, specifically of their existing levee systems being overwhelmed during storms.

Exactly. The Central Valley won’t be undersea, but it will have aggravated flooding problems.

Before it was settled the Sacramento would flood extensively once in a while, and take months to recede from the floodplain. When settlers came they found a nice flat, fertile area with a river for water supply to build towns and cities. They found out shortly after that it floods so everyone started building their own personal levees and wound up flooding their neighbors. Then all the Gold Rush mining debris clogged the channelized rivers so between levee building, the debris, and overpumping of groundwater, there are a plenty of spots in the Central Valley where the rivers are built up above the surrounding land.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute

Trabisnikof posted:

Its really crazy to think one weather event could do this



It's already happened before. The Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys were completely inundated, water got as deep as 30ft in the Central Valley, LA was basically turned into a marsh by 28 straight days of rain, and the area around San Diego actually saw changes to the geography because it flooded so much it created a new river that started cutting into the mountains.

The Civil War was kind of going on at the time though, and the state's telegraph infrastructure was functionally destroyed by the flooding so the news didn't really propagate until a while after it happened and so it didn't sink in to the wider national history in the way you would think a megastorm of that magnitude would.

Tuxedo Gin
May 21, 2003

Classy.

Almost the entire SJ Valley used to be huge lakes, marshes, and wetlands, with grasslands along the foothills. Tulare Lake was almost 700 square miles in 1879. That's more than 3.5x the size of Tahoe. Now, thanks to diverting water sources for cities and agriculture, it's a dry lakebed and the entire SJ Valley is dry grasslands.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Tuxedo Gin posted:

Almost the entire SJ Valley used to be huge lakes, marshes, and wetlands, with grasslands along the foothills. Tulare Lake was almost 700 square miles in 1879. That's more than 3.5x the size of Tahoe. Now, thanks to diverting water sources for cities and agriculture, it's a dry lakebed and the entire SJ Valley is dry grasslands.


Panfilo
Aug 27, 2011

EXISTENCE IS PAIN😬

:stare: Holy poo poo

Roland Jones
Aug 18, 2011

by Nyc_Tattoo
Yeah, we're not going to flood, we're sinking straight into Hell. It's why there's all the fires and stuff.

Tuxedo Gin
May 21, 2003

Classy.

Panfilo posted:

:stare: Holy poo poo

The California of 200 years ago would be basically unrecognizable to anyone from today. We have done insane amounts of damage. It used to be a pretty wet place, aside from the actual deserts. Maybe in another 20-50 years, most of the Central Valley will look like Death Valley.

Trabisnikof
Dec 24, 2005

Tuxedo Gin posted:

The California of 200 years ago would be basically unrecognizable to anyone from today. We have done insane amounts of damage. It used to be a pretty wet place, aside from the actual deserts. Maybe in another 20-50 years, most of the Central Valley will look like Death Valley.

poo poo most of the grasses aren't even native now. It's an entirely different country.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators
As the valley dries out, more regions become inhospitable to California black oaks and the biome they support. Black oaks will retreat north and chaparral grassland will advance in its place. Chaparral is resilient, but it's fire-prone and has poor soil health. It's also the last stand against a region finally turning into desert.

Thankfully, effects from climate change will fix that. The ridiculously resilient ridge and the expansion of the Hadley cell will turn those regions arid.


Which is to say California may be trying to prepare for climate change but god drat have they been stacking the deck against themselves for the past 200 years. Once winters get warm enough to disrupt spring snowmelt runoff rates (it all melts in the winter lol), better hope desalination is working at scale.

Notorious R.I.M. fucked around with this message at 09:00 on Jan 19, 2018

Skyscraper
Oct 1, 2004

Hurry Up, We're Dreaming



paranoid randroid posted:

a Big Dog tshirt where the cool dog has his arms crossed and saying Listen Toots I Post Where I Want and You Can Take That to the Bank

binaryjunky is the real da share z0ne?

axelord
Dec 28, 2012

College Slice

Tuxedo Gin posted:

The California of 200 years ago would be basically unrecognizable to anyone from today. We have done insane amounts of damage. It used to be a pretty wet place, aside from the actual deserts. Maybe in another 20-50 years, most of the Central Valley will look like Death Valley.

Don't worry man they got this solved. Delta bypass, followed by diverting the Klamath into the Sacramento Valley. If that doesn't work the next step is diverting the columbia south. It sounds crazy but it probably going to happen.

GrandpaPants
Feb 13, 2006


Free to roam the heavens in man's noble quest to investigate the weirdness of the universe!

https://twitter.com/cbloggy/status/954520310023254016

I don't know much about this story, but it does seem Pretty Bad™

Punkin Spunkin
Jan 1, 2010
I'm waiting for Laguna Beach to get reclaimed by the sea and purged by Poseidon, but hopefully not before I figure out where the cops buried the brotherhood of eternal love's acid doses after that big infamous canyon party. Otherwise I'll need scuba gear.
Laguna Hills could be prime loving property one day. New Laguna Beach. Plus God should probably destroy Laguna Beach already, letting the ocean have its collection of art galleries with paintings of Republican presidents and/or dogs playing poker.

Coredump
Dec 1, 2002

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

As the valley dries out, more regions become inhospitable to California black oaks and the biome they support. Black oaks will retreat north and chaparral grassland will advance in its place. Chaparral is resilient, but it's fire-prone and has poor soil health. It's also the last stand against a region finally turning into desert.

Thankfully, effects from climate change will fix that. The ridiculously resilient ridge and the expansion of the Hadley cell will turn those regions arid.


Which is to say California may be trying to prepare for climate change but god drat have they been stacking the deck against themselves for the past 200 years. Once winters get warm enough to disrupt spring snowmelt runoff rates (it all melts in the winter lol), better hope desalination is working at scale.

There’s a fellow from Australia by the name of Geoff Lawton who has done work with permaculture and greening the desert. We have methods of reversing desertification. We talk about terraforming Mars, we need to terraform Earth and convert more desert into greenery.

Coredump fucked around with this message at 04:27 on Jan 21, 2018

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Coredump posted:

There’s a fellow from Australia by the name of Geoff Lawton who has done work with permaculture and re-greening the desert. We have methods of reversing desertification. We talk about terraforming Mars, we need to terraform Earth and convert more desert into greenery.

Yeah, carbon capture and storage technology is basically all fairytale bullshit. We have great technology for it already: Increasing biomass. We just have to bother to do it. California will be an interesting region for human-assisted biome adaptation over the 21st century.

Coredump
Dec 1, 2002

The other part is there is some worry of where do you fit low skill workers into our society, especially as automation comes over the horizon. Well these low skilled workers could potentially be the ones to save our asses by providing the man power to do these sorts of re-greening projects.

A3th3r
Jul 27, 2013

success is a dream & achievements are the cream

Sydin posted:

It's already happened before. The Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys were completely inundated, water got as deep as 30ft in the Central Valley, LA was basically turned into a marsh by 28 straight days of rain, and the area around San Diego actually saw changes to the geography because it flooded so much it created a new river that started cutting into the mountains.

The Civil War was kind of going on at the time though, and the state's telegraph infrastructure was functionally destroyed by the flooding so the news didn't really propagate until a while after it happened and so it didn't sink in to the wider national history in the way you would think a megastorm of that magnitude would.

California has a fairly major homelessness problem on a massive scale and storms of this size do nothing to alleviate that

Waltzing Along
Jun 14, 2008

There's only one
Human race
Many faces
Everybody belongs here
And that homelessness problem is going to keep growing as more and more people move here and take jobs and houses. That's not saying that the homeless wouldn't be homeless otherwise, but it certainly isn't helping matters.

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
The Santa Barbara and Ventura shelters had complications associated with large numbers of homeless people checking into the emergency overnight shelters. They aren't proper homeless shelters, they're temporary shelters for people unable to return to their households.

I don't have any information about why the SB shelter had to close early but the newspaper offers some speculation about it relating to an individual upset that he couldn't smoke pot in the shelter leading to an altercation with a school administrator.

Edit: Oh yeah, the 101 opened back up today.

Tuxedo Gin
May 21, 2003

Classy.

To be fair, if your neighborhood burned down you should be allowed to smoke pot at the shelter - though outside.

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
The Red Cross doesn't own standing shelter sites. We use places like churches, schools, fairgrounds. Places that have their own rules and that serve their own populations. After all, colleges and schools don't shut down just because the gym is being used as a shelter.

Tuxedo Gin
May 21, 2003

Classy.

RandomPauI posted:

The Red Cross doesn't own standing shelter sites. We use places like churches, schools, fairgrounds. Places that have their own rules and that serve their own populations. After all, colleges and schools don't shut down just because the gym is being used as a shelter.

So I can't smoke weed even if a fifth grader takes pity on my situation and shares his?

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer

Tuxedo Gin posted:

So I can't smoke weed even if a fifth grader takes pity on my situation and shares his?

Maybe if it's a Montessori, but you'll need to be 20 feet away from the shelter proper.

Sydin
Oct 29, 2011

Another spring commute
Yeah Red Cross logistics are weird. My sister works for them and tells me all kinds of horror stories. When she got deployed to Sacramento last year for the fires, they set up the shelter in a fair grounds that kept forcing them to shuffle where they were parking the emergency response vehicles because they were interfering with the weekly car show. Also the shelter itself was setup in a building with an OTB place that did not shut down while it was being used as a shelter, so when you walked in it was half RC employees and people living at the shelter, and half people betting on horses.

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
During the Thomas Fire we started with one building at the fairgrounds. Then we took over another because the first building reached capacity.

But the fairgrounds were also the staging grounds for the firefighters. So when the Emergency Operations Center brought in the penal firefighters we we're ordered to move to a bigger, uninsulated building further from everything for security reasons.

It wasn't an ideal situation.

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


Neither is penal firefighting. :(

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

Cup Runneth Over posted:

Neither is penal firefighting. :(

You see, they're not slaves because they get slightly better conditions than other penal workers and thus chose it.

Dirk the Average
Feb 7, 2012

"This may have been a mistake."

Cup Runneth Over posted:

Neither is penal firefighting. :(

That just seems really inefficient. I mean, you're getting what, half a liter per person per day, with an extremely short deployment range? Surely there's a better way to do things.

CPColin
Sep 9, 2003

Big ol' smile.

Jaxyon posted:

You see, they're not slaves because they get slightly better conditions than other penal workers and thus chose it.

They are slaves, but the thirteenth amendment specifically allows for enslaving convicted criminals, so :rip:

Jaxyon
Mar 7, 2016
I’m just saying I would like to see a man beat a woman in a cage. Just to be sure.

CPColin posted:

They are slaves, but the thirteenth amendment specifically allows for enslaving convicted criminals, so :rip:

Oh they're 100% slaves but you'd be amazed on the amount of hair splitting people will do to say they're not.

Tuxedo Gin
May 21, 2003

Classy.

Most people would argue that slavery is more than they deserve. The average American's opinions on criminal "justice" are loving disgusting.

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


The average American's opinions are loving disgusting period. The world hates us for a reason.

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SlimGoodbody
Oct 20, 2003

America: Turns out we are, in fact, the world's evil end boss

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