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Jonny 290 posted:the cells are only plentiful and cheap because elon is signing contracts for a centillion fuckin' 18650 cells every quarter. i mean its not like the laptop market is carrying the 18650 market right now lol. once tesla is gone those $2 china cells are gone tesla chose 18650 cells because they were pre-existing and already-cheap there's huge domestic demand in china from electric bike manufacturers. that form factor isn't going anywhere.
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Jan 22, 2018 19:15
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things only leave china if the government subsidizes the postage. arduino clones dont really cost 2 cents to ship from shenzhen. once the tesla prom date is over, the batteries are goin away
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Jan 22, 2018 19:16
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Farmer Crack-rear end posted:60s mustangs are all mechanical though, there's no computer chips or software to present copyright issues or other reverse engineering difficulties. thanks that was kinda sarcastic? but i also wanted to float that car "fact" thats been bouncing around my head for a couple decades and get it fishmeched out, thx 
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Jan 22, 2018 19:16
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does the government subsidize massive container shipments too or just the random crap i bought on ebay that somehow ships free
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Jan 22, 2018 19:17
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Notorious b.s.d. posted:tesla chose 18650 cells because they were pre-existing and already-cheap "huh, i wonder if this cell at the core of every portable drill used in construction worldwide is gonna tank when a niche car manufacturer stops buying less than 1M/y"
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Jan 22, 2018 19:18
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JawnV6 posted:"huh, i wonder if this cell at the core of every portable drill used in construction worldwide is gonna tank when a niche car manufacturer stops buying less than 1M/y" is someone actually arguing this, because i don't think anyone's actually arguing this
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Jan 22, 2018 19:19
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Jonny 290 posted:things only leave china if the government subsidizes the postage. arduino clones dont really cost 2 cents to ship from shenzhen. once the tesla prom date is over, the batteries are goin away not true, dude, at all. chinese electric bikes are like 10,000x the production of tesla. it's a tens of billions of dollars industry. if tesla never bought or built another 18650, they would still be a really commonly found product.
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Jan 22, 2018 19:19
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chinese ebikes and power drills are basically disposable tho. they can sell cells as lovely as they want for those and nobody will care there
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Jan 22, 2018 19:20
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Jonny 290 posted:chinese ebikes and power drills are basically disposable tho. they can sell cells as lovely as they want for those and nobody will care there point of the tesla battery designs are that the individual cells can be real lovely and also flammable and the whole deal will be still ok and nonflammable
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Jan 22, 2018 19:20
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Farmer Crack-rear end posted:also Ford built over two million Mustangs in the 60s, so of course there was money to be made in continuing to produce parts for the cars. what's the Model S production run at? we know total tesla vehicle output, ever, is fewer than 200,000, because that's the magic number when the federal tax credit starts to phase out for perspective, a typical mass-market sedan sells 100,000 cars a year, in the u.s. market alone. edit: tesla has a working business that turns a profit, but it's a lotus or caterham-sized business, not a mazda or a jaguar-landrover.
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Jan 22, 2018 19:21
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ate all the Oreos posted:is someone actually arguing this, because i don't think anyone's actually arguing this Jonny 290 posted:the cells are only plentiful and cheap because elon is signing contracts for a centillion fuckin' 18650 cells every quarter. i mean its not like the laptop market is carrying the 18650 market right now lol. once tesla is gone those $2 china cells are gone
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Jan 22, 2018 19:21
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ate all the Oreos posted:does the government subsidize massive container shipments too or just the random crap i bought on ebay that somehow ships free
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Jan 22, 2018 19:21
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Jonny 290 posted:things only leave china if the government subsidizes the postage. arduino clones dont really cost 2 cents to ship from shenzhen. once the tesla prom date is over, the batteries are goin away maybe not one off but if you loaded up a container with arduino clones it might come close to 2 cents per unit
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Jan 22, 2018 19:21
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oh you seriously are arguing that the 18650 is inexorably tied to tesla for some reason, ok that's dumb
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Jan 22, 2018 19:22
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ate all the Oreos posted:does the government subsidize massive container shipments too or just the random crap i bought on ebay that somehow ships free container shipping is ludicrously cheap
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Jan 22, 2018 19:22
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im saying that people googling current prices for 18650s on amazon and saying "oh i'll just do a DIY pack in eight years for *looks at calculator smudges* $3700" are setting themselves up to be hosted by their own petard
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Jan 22, 2018 19:23
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Jonny 290 posted:im saying that people googling current prices for 18650s on amazon and saying "oh i'll just do a DIY pack in eight years for *looks at calculator smudges* $3700" are setting themselves up to be hosted by their own petard i don't expect 8-years-from-now cheapo chinese battery chemistry to be much different from today, jony and $4k is n.b.d. when repairing your $100k collector's item sports car, as you of all people should know 
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Jan 22, 2018 19:24
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fart simpson posted:maybe not one off but if you loaded up a container with arduino clones it might come close to 2 cents per unit hey you live in the general area of china right? can you really go to street vendors in shenzhen and scoop yourself big ol' bag full o' microcontroller chip ripoffs like it's a barrel of peanuts? ...can you personally do that and ship them to me so i can have cheap things?
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Jan 22, 2018 19:25
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fart simpson posted:container shipping is ludicrously cheap it's also ludicrously cheap cuz it's ludicrously efficient. overseas shipping was 10x cheaper than overland in 6000 bc and also 2018 ad and every step in between if your bananas come from peru in a container, the gas cost in driving it from the distribution center to the grocery and then from the grocery to your home is like 5x the gas cost of getting it to the port from the other port
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Jan 22, 2018 19:25
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fart simpson posted:container shipping is ludicrously cheap yeah i think it was like, $400 to get your container around the world last time I checked or something, poo poo's crazy
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Jan 22, 2018 19:26
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bob dobbs is dead posted:it's also ludicrously cheap cuz it's ludicrously efficient. overseas shipping was 10x cheaper than overland in 6000 bc and also 2018 ad and every step in between well no it's ludicrously cheap because we massively overbuilt container ships and now we have waay too much global capacity and not enough actual demand e: i mean i guess it's also cheap in general compared to bulk shipping, sure
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Jan 22, 2018 19:26
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flipside: it'll get there when it gets there its not like 1937 put a letter on a steamer and it shows up 7 months later, but it takes a lil bit of runway ill give them respect for getting shipping times down to like 7-10 calendar days from shenzen for little poo poo
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Jan 22, 2018 19:26
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ate all the Oreos posted:hey you live in the general area of china right? can you really go to street vendors in shenzhen and scoop yourself big ol' bag full o' microcontroller chip ripoffs like it's a barrel of peanuts? yeah i live in shenzhen. that stuff isn't at street vendors, but basically yeah it's in stalls in giant electronics malls
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Jan 22, 2018 19:27
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fart simpson posted:yeah i live in shenzhen. that stuff isn't at street vendors, but basically yeah it's in stalls in giant electronics malls that sounds neat as heck
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Jan 22, 2018 19:28
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ate all the Oreos posted:yeah i think it was like, $400 to get your container around the world last time I checked or something, poo poo's crazy  jesus christ.
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Jan 22, 2018 19:29
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ate all the Oreos posted:that sounds neat as heck the one i went to a couple times (SEG building in HQB) was split by floor, like the entry level floor was LED's and connectors, 2 floors up was arduinos and other integrated things, up from there was entire devices and eventually laptops i had to buy 1 fuse because we'd blown it plugging into mains. asked for fuses, was pointed to the fuse lady, she made a big production out of looking at it and asking for quantity. i was smart enough to say "5" instead of 1, she still pretended to spit in the bag
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Jan 22, 2018 19:31
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i bet these ships are meant to be sailed fully loaded right? so i could absolutely see if they had to drop rates just to get some loving ballast on the thing so the rest of the ship's Actually Valuable Cargo can get destinated* *ham radio term
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Jan 22, 2018 19:31
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ate all the Oreos posted:that sounds neat as heck the biggest one is huaqiangbei:  that's like 25% of one floor, now imagine 7 floors of that and you got yourself 1 (one) building, and there's an entire street of these buildings. there's similar (but smaller) electronics malls all over the city, too
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Jan 22, 2018 19:31
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i would end up a crazy person on the street borrowing wall outlets for my soldering iron if i had constant access to something like that
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Jan 22, 2018 19:32
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JawnV6 posted:the one i went to a couple times (SEG building in HQB) was split by floor, like the entry level floor was LED's and connectors, 2 floors up was arduinos and other integrated things, up from there was entire devices and eventually laptops who usually shops at these places? purchasers making bulk buys for export?
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Jan 22, 2018 19:33
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Jonny 290 posted:i would end up a crazy person on the street borrowing wall outlets for my soldering iron if i had constant access to something like that ... why tho? few buildings aware are the folks who will solder up boards for you
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Jan 22, 2018 19:34
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im a component hoarder and if you give me the motherlode i will hoard but if theres a nuke we'll need 555's and decade counters
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Jan 22, 2018 19:35
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President Beep posted:who usually shops at these places? purchasers making bulk buys for export? yes, but also i think local companies sometimes go there to find suppliers. there's also quite a few people like jawnv6 who are just buying one parts too. the surrounding streets are packed with couriers and shipping companies
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Jan 22, 2018 19:35
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fart simpson posted:the biggest one is huaqiangbei: holy poo poo this is so much fancier than i'd ever imagined
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Jan 22, 2018 19:36
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a few times i've seen dudes on the street with literal cardboard signs saying stuff like "will do pcb layouts for cheap"
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Jan 22, 2018 19:37
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Notorious b.s.d. posted:holy poo poo this is so much fancier than i'd ever imagined it's also so much lower quality than you'd imagine the cops there also don't let you take pictures, dunno why
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Jan 22, 2018 19:38
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fart simpson posted:a few times i've seen dudes on the street with literal cardboard signs saying stuff like "will do pcb layouts for cheap" hahah yes. me.
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Jan 22, 2018 19:38
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bob dobbs is dead posted:it's also so much lower quality than you'd imagine
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Jan 22, 2018 19:40
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i would die i would just die of joy there on the spot
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Jan 22, 2018 19:41
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bob dobbs is dead posted:it's also so much lower quality than you'd imagine i can imagine a pretty low quality it's china
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Jan 22, 2018 19:42
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