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Finicums Wake posted:while a ton of americans are tuned out or disengaged with the political process right now, i'm wary of projecting that, say, 20 years into the future. from what i can tell, long term economic trends, if they continue, will hollow out the middle class. that plus political polarization will create the conditions in which an otherwise fixable crisis—another 2008 style financial collapse, for example—forces these problems to be confronted, since they're so clolsely coupled. whether that'd cause a full scale civil war, or just a period more like the america of the 1920s Anything can happen, sure. Projecting trends in linear fashion is what gets us the Permanent Democratic Majority, in 2009, or the Permanent Republican Majority, in 2002.
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Jan 24, 2018 15:23
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quote:Meanwhile, the real long-term threats faced by American society will continue unaddressed. By fixing on the risks of direct political violence, we set a low bar that Trump will be able to clear with relative ease. The truly destructive violence of American society takes place under the surface and often passes unnoticed by all except its victims. It is the violence of a prison system that incarcerates and disenfranchises significant segments of the adult population, especially young African-American men. It is the epidemic of white-on-white violence that is estimated to have cost the lives of nearly a hundred thousand Americans since 1999 and yet has remained more or less invisible, until noticed by the economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton in a paper published in 2015. These deaths are the result of self-inflicted violence, either suicides or drug and alcohol overdoses (‘poisonings’ in the language of the report), particularly affecting white Americans living in the parts of the country that voted overwhelmingly for Trump – the South, the Appalachians, the Rust Belt. People in these communities are far more likely to kill themselves than they are to kill others, and they are dying younger than their parents did, a trend that is unique in a developed society. Trump’s victory might provide the victims of this epidemic with superficial respite – including the chance to direct some of their self-loathing outwards – but it will do little to address the causes of their underlying hopelessness. America is a society where many working-age people have given up and others have had their chance for a decent life taken from them by a violently punitive criminal justice system. If it is failing, it is failing here. When the Trump bubble bursts, there won’t have been a reckoning with this reality. But there will be an ever greater sense of betrayal.
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Jan 24, 2018 15:26
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gobbagool posted:Anything can happen, sure. Projecting trends in linear fashion is what gets us the Permanent Democratic Majority, in 2009, or the Permanent Republican Majority, in 2002. you dont think that the structural changes the economy underwent in the 70s/80s in response to stagflation, and, say, the trend of increasing economic inequality since then, are more likely to hold than these political trends?
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Jan 24, 2018 15:26
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gobbagool posted:Anything can happen, sure. Projecting trends in linear fashion is what gets us the Permanent Democratic Majority, in 2009, or the Permanent Republican Majority, in 2002. bit rude to ignore me after i've been nothing but frank with you
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Jan 24, 2018 15:28
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you know now i'm thinking that this isn't the scary moment, but the compromise leading to the scary moment in a couple of decades which loops me around very nice and snug to the thread title
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Jan 24, 2018 15:30
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gobbagool posted:Anything can happen, sure. Projecting trends in linear fashion is what gets us the Permanent Democratic Majority, in 2009, or the Permanent Republican Majority, in 2002. also, the crux of your argument seems to be that because normies care about sports rather than politics right now, they always will. how is that not projecting trends in a linear fashion?
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Jan 24, 2018 15:30
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BrutalistMcDonalds posted:you know now i'm thinking that this isn't the scary moment, but the compromise leading to the scary moment in a couple of decades I mean, it's not guaranteed to happen, or in the way we think, but i've yet to hear any vision of a society that includes an ascendant china. like, it's going to require both you and us europeans both to find ways to cooperate on levels never seen before to remain competetive in a world such as that. or, we stay where we are now, under the gentle leadership of shitwofl and the pissboy. and decay
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Jan 24, 2018 15:36
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id say build the cascadian wall but thaat already happened billions of years ago
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Jan 24, 2018 15:52
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lollontee posted:bit rude to ignore me after i've been nothing but frank with you what are you talking about?
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Jan 24, 2018 15:53
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Finicums Wake posted:also, the crux of your argument seems to be that because normies care about sports rather than politics right now, they always will. how is that not projecting trends in a linear fashion? I'm betting on the apathy of the common person.
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Jan 24, 2018 15:54
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gobbagool posted:I'm betting on the apathy of the common person. i think once enough people are unable to afford housing, education, having children, and other goods that we consider basic components of the american lifestyle, they'll stop being apathetic out of self interest. i doubt we'll change each other's minds further, so ill let you have the last word (if you want)
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Jan 24, 2018 16:05
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Everyone is wasting their time arguing with an Upstate Chud. He's comfortable and good, so therefore nothing is wrong (except for all the downstate libs oppressing him)
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Jan 24, 2018 16:15
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KomradeX posted:Everyone is wasting their time arguing with an Upstate Chud. He's comfortable and good, so therefore nothing is wrong (except for all the downstate libs oppressing him) THat's a really stupid and inaccurate representation of what I said, but thanks for your contribution. I'm all in favor of downstate libs, without them my employment picture changes dramatically
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Jan 24, 2018 16:20
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Finicums Wake posted:i think once enough people are unable to afford housing, education, having children, and other goods that we consider basic components of the american lifestyle, they'll stop being apathetic out of self interest. i doubt we'll change each other's minds further, so ill let you have the last word (if you want) I mean, i don't disagree that if things only get worse for enough people, that eventually something will happen. It seems a lot more likely that it would be the ascendance of a socialist political party promising free stuff for everyone before we'd see widespread riots in the streets though. At any rate, an interesting conversation, thank you
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Jan 24, 2018 16:22
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Lmfao at how bad all these posts are
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Jan 24, 2018 16:37
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But I'm especially laughing at the guy being like "I can read the minds of 95 percent of Americans, what do you mean this isn't backed up by any statistics at all, sounds like you're internet mad."
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Jan 24, 2018 16:39
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gabagool is right not to worry about the revolution because hes far more likely to be taken out by anyone who has ever interacted with him, probably justifiably
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Jan 24, 2018 16:43
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I don't even think there's going to be violent revolution in the U.S. but holy moly how out of touch can you be.
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Jan 24, 2018 16:44
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there will never be a violent revolution in america lol, thats why the only hope for the good parts is to come to their senses and realize they have more 2 gain than lose from balkanization
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Jan 24, 2018 16:49
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look, we've all heard of the myth of 'the good parts of america' but it's just - a myth. just like the easter bunny, or the sun serpent, or the person who enjoyed the star wars prequels, it only exists in peoples imaginations rudatron has issued a correction as of 17:02 on Jan 24, 2018 |
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Jan 24, 2018 17:00
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FactsAreUseless posted:I don't even think there's going to be violent revolution in the U.S. but holy moly how out of touch can you be. so, you agree with me then. thanks!
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Jan 24, 2018 17:01
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FactsAreUseless posted:But I'm especially laughing at the guy being like "I can read the minds of 95 percent of Americans, what do you mean this isn't backed up by any statistics at all, sounds like you're internet mad." in which case you surely have statistics that point at a violent revolution? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jan 24, 2018 17:02
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gobbagool posted:in which case you surely have statistics that point at a violent revolution? 
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Jan 24, 2018 17:03
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thank you
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Jan 24, 2018 17:07
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The thing about balkanization is that political divisions are most heated between the rural/urban divide rather than between regions. People living in Houston have more in common politically with people living in Chicago than they do with people in rural Texas. Maybe we'll get to see the emergence of city-states when this garbage country finally collapses. That would be cool imo
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Jan 24, 2018 17:07
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gobbagool posted:Rudatron, forgive me for asking, but you're not American, are you? The bizarre thing about reading this thread and pretty much any thread like it in cspam or D&D is the bizarro world nature of what's actually going on in America versus what cub reporters are telling us what is happening in America. Sure, amongst people who care, liberals and conservatives are getting along terribly from a political perspective. My own father is a never trumper who is caremad all the time about Trump. The reality is though that the vast vast majority of people dont give a poo poo about politics outside of the most local concerns. 24x7 media hyping the next news story i think gives people, especially outside the US, that the US is a 'powder keg' to use your term, when on the ground most people dont want to even discuss politics because it's hella loving boring. I work in NYC but live in a deep red exurb upstate, and in my daily walk, i rarely encounter anyone who wants to discuss politics. People who do want to talk about politics are shunned, nobody wants to be around them, because inevitably, they have strident and horrible opinions, regardless of which side they're on. My primary customer in NYC is a North African Muslim appointee of Mayor DiBlasio. I'm a conservative white male. You know what we talk about? Premier league soccer. get your news from somewhere other than gawker, a website that shutdown a year and a half ago
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Jan 24, 2018 17:09
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rudatron posted:look, we've all heard of the myth of 'the good parts of america' late millennials and the bulk of gen z enjoyed the star wars prequels more than the original trilogy you have no idea how hosed we are
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Jan 24, 2018 17:09
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Karl Barks posted:get your news from somewhere other than gawker, a website that shutdown a year and a half ago
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Jan 24, 2018 17:10
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I wonder what's gonna happen when the economy explodes in the next six months or whatever
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Jan 24, 2018 17:13
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I don't know if there will be a violent revolution but I think we are in for some large scale revolt and disruption in the next few months, or years. Right now its increasingly looking likely that dreamers are going to lose protection on March 5th. The Trump administration has been signaling that the moment protection drops ICE is going in with full force, and the nation is going to see images straight out of 1930's Germany when it happens. The cave a few days ago has indicated to minorities in America and the left that the democrats are powerless or unwilling to protect them, while nativists and fascists on the right have been emboldened by what's happening. I'm already getting scared at what the next step is, which is likely going also after legal and naturalized immigrants. Its getting to the point where people I know and love are going to get targeted by this violence, and I'm from a stratum of society that is fairly well off. At the moment when I talk to my family about politics we have real disagreements but we are still removed enough from it that the arguments are more philosophical. Seeing DACA recipients dragged to the van 24/7 on news networks is going to break that distant removal of the situation for a lot of the country. People are going to be pissed and will likely take to the streets. Fascists are going to be triumphant and will take to the streets. What is going to happen next then? I'm also really worried about 2020 as well, since if / when a democrat wins I really doubt Trump will be willing to leave power. At this point I doubt that he will succeed but we watched the right lose its goddamn mind after Obama was elected, and that was in a (relatively) more sane environment and without direct attacks on our democracy and press. Maybe I'm just blowing bullshit right now but I'm really shook from the situation.
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Jan 24, 2018 17:13
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FactsAreUseless posted:Please do not respond to the probated man. when i hit quote he was not probated!
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Jan 24, 2018 17:13
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the entire idea that america is not divided is stupid as gently caress. charlottesville? someone was murdered for political reasons, there have been many instances of shooting, stabbings, etc at the milo protests. just because we live in what is basically a police state doesn't mean there isn't stuff simmering below the surface
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Jan 24, 2018 17:14
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My problem with the revolt/revolution/unrest idea is that I feel like it's mostly a power fantasy. People recognize that they have no real influence over our government and want to imagine that at some point, everyone gets fed up and retakes that influence. I just don't think it happens. I think America will continue to get worse in small ways for a very long time, until most people are sick, exhausted, and unhappy, but can't do poo poo about it. America isn't going to fall apart, it's just going to keep getting shittier and shittier and nothing will really happen.
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Jan 24, 2018 17:18
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Feldegast42 posted:I don't know if there will be a violent revolution but I think we are in for some large scale revolt and disruption in the next few months, or years. I feel you. Mass deportations motivated entirely by racial prejudice is the sort of thing people SHOULD be taking to the streets for. Whether or not Americans actually care enough is the question. But there are a lot of people who really loving hate Trump that want to stand up to him, even if they didn't gave a poo poo about immigrants before.
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Jan 24, 2018 17:22
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Feldegast42 posted:Seeing DACA recipients dragged to the van 24/7 on news networks is going to break that distant removal of the situation for a lot of the country. this is where you lost me because ice has been kidnapping people 24/7 over the past year and the news networks have treated it as a kind of sad human interest story for half a minute before they go back to the latest trump gaffe. the media treats deportations as a shame, sure, but not the huge moral political and logistical crisis that it really is, because ultimately the view of the media is that the immigrants should have just trusted the process and waited instead of breaking the law
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Jan 24, 2018 17:22
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rudatron posted:the comparison to the us civil war aren't too far off the mark. political polarization has just jumped up massively. see the pew poll: OTOH you can point out that the 80s-90s were a time of exceptional political peace in the US and not a good baseline for considering polarization, the US public has a tendency of considering the Reagan-Clinton era and the era running from roughly 1932-1965 as the norm of US politics when in reality polarization and extreme contentiousness is far more common on the average
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Jan 24, 2018 17:28
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Karl Barks posted:the entire idea that america is not divided is stupid as gently caress. charlottesville? someone was murdered for political reasons, there have been many instances of shooting, stabbings, etc at the milo protests. right, but that in itself isn't a totally doomed situation. America is a democratic nation and it has historically dealt with similar problems and dealt with them well. Now though, we live in a different world. A unique one too for first time ever, there is no frontier. The planet is full, and there is no escape valve. That neither is not fatal, we can certainly open up new frontiers for exploitation, although it will certainly take a long time and vast collaborative efforts. regardless, is gonna be a rough century ahead for everybody no matter where they are on the planet. but how do you put all that together though? it's clear that america needs to do a vast wealth redistribution like so many times in your past, but your political system is broken and nobody seems to have any ideas on how to fix it. how do adapt to all this crap headed your way if you're just desperately trying to find the politician who's going to leave your rear end in a top hat least destroyed?
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Jan 24, 2018 17:29
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collectively, people get violent when things are taken away from them, or when their situation deteriorates enough. nihilism/depression/fatalism as a response to crisis isn't a consequence of solely of your situation, but also of your powerlessness - it's the response given by people on the margins, who are, uh, marginalized, so they don't get the healthier ways of solving their situation. when the center encounters crisis, poo poo hits the fan, and you're incredibly naive if you think america isn't heading towards a mega violent something i don't think it's strictly going to be a revolution, for other reasons, but death is certain.
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Jan 24, 2018 17:30
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FactsAreUseless posted:My problem with the revolt/revolution/unrest idea is that I feel like it's mostly a power fantasy. People recognize that they have no real influence over our government and want to imagine that at some point, everyone gets fed up and retakes that influence. I just don't think it happens. I think America will continue to get worse in small ways for a very long time, until most people are sick, exhausted, and unhappy, but can't do poo poo about it. America isn't going to fall apart, it's just going to keep getting shittier and shittier and nothing will really happen. the breaking point wont be street-level, the breaking point will be when the republicans get the totally minarchist federal government they want but in the rush to siphon all the defense spending thats left into legislators favorite contractors they will have forgotten that you still need money left over to pay people to enforce the police state
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Jan 24, 2018 17:30
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FactsAreUseless posted:My problem with the revolt/revolution/unrest idea is that I feel like it's mostly a power fantasy. People recognize that they have no real influence over our government and want to imagine that at some point, everyone gets fed up and retakes that influence. I just don't think it happens. I think America will continue to get worse in small ways for a very long time, until most people are sick, exhausted, and unhappy, but can't do poo poo about it. America isn't going to fall apart, it's just going to keep getting shittier and shittier and nothing will really happen. I didn't realize Chuck Schumer was a goon
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Jan 24, 2018 17:35
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