|
Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:force a collapse of some unknown that's sort of the problem self unaware posted:i just told you what "we're" going to do about it and what the consequences will be. sorry you're too stupid to understand? the future is always radically undecided
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 15:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 15:26 |
|
|
lollontee posted:that's sort of the problem Well, it's going to be somewhere between "halving our PPI on *everyone and everything* and just straight up "Mad Max". Happy with those boundary statements?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 15:24
|
|
|
Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:Well, it's going to be somewhere between "halving our PPI on *everyone and everything* and just straight up "Mad Max". Happy with those boundary statements? sure
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 15:24
|
|
|
lollontee posted:the future is always radically undecided what a comforting lie to tell yourself
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 15:25
|
|
|
BrutalistMcDonalds posted:last chinese movie i watched was a martial arts film with really strong anti-japan themes. left a sour taste. so yeah i'd rather join the bollywood global multicultural twerkfest all the best chinese and and korean military history dramas are about fighting off one form of japanese incursion or another, whether it's the chinese civil war and ww2 or the medieval woku pirates, it owns
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 15:25
|
|
|
Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:Well, it's going to be somewhere between "halving our PPI on *everyone and everything* and just straight up "Mad Max". Happy with those boundary statements?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 15:26
|
|
|
lol @ someone arguing soft power has no effect
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 15:31
|
|
|
FactsAreUseless posted:What is PPI? Producer Price Index, and oops I got it backwards. I should have said "doubling". Like the cost of everything doubles because energy isn't cheap and plentiful (when we crunch down hard on fossil fuel usage) as we are reacting to the fact that farming yields are dropping all over as we deal with regular crop failures and so on. My bad.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 16:13
|
|
|
i mean, that's where technology comes in, right?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 16:29
|
|
|
Karl Barks posted:lol @ someone arguing soft power has no effect nobody said that, but rather that soft power in and of itself is meaningless. i'm arguing that it's importance and effect is greatly exaggerated by people who are mad about Trump, and that somehow the US has lost actual influence in the world because of him. Feel free to argue against that, maybe show how impotent rage at the UN has force the US to do something it wasnt going to do anyways. Or, even short of that, show where soft power (without the threat of hard power) has forced a nation to act against it's own interests.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 16:35
|
|
|
Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:Well, it's going to be somewhere between "halving our PPI on *everyone and everything* and just straight up "Mad Max". Happy with those boundary statements? what's your timeline again? I'd love to take some long term action on that, if you're up for it
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 16:37
|
|
|
gobbagool posted:nobody said that, but rather that soft power in and of itself is meaningless. i'm arguing that it's importance and effect is greatly exaggerated by people who are mad about Trump, and that somehow the US has lost actual influence in the world because of him. Feel free to argue against that, maybe show how impotent rage at the UN has force the US to do something it wasnt going to do anyways. Or, even short of that, show where soft power (without the threat of hard power) has forced a nation to act against it's own interests. it seems self evident, if you've ever traveled anywhere other than the US, how dominant and influential US culture is. btw things like the marshall plan are considered soft power, and did more than any stupid lovely coup we've instigated to affect policy in a positive way
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 16:39
|
|
|
places where US hard power worked really well: afghanistan iraq iran venezuela
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 16:40
|
|
|
Karl Barks posted:it seems self evident, if you've ever traveled anywhere other than the US, how dominant and influential US culture is. btw things like the marshall plan are considered soft power, and did more than any stupid lovely coup we've instigated to affect policy in a positive way I've travelled extensively, thanks, and lived in Central America for a time. The power of US culture isn't going to wane with a single US administration. Young people abroad who enjoy US music or movies aren't going to decide all of a sudden that they dont because they're mad about Trump. When the Chinese culture develops with something as appealing to international audiences as Hip Hop or superhero movies, we can have this discussion again. Also, using the Marshall Plan as an example of soft power, without the context of why there was a Marshall Plan in the first place, is the exact sort of myopic stupidity that puts so much trust in 'soft power' in the first place
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:06
|
|
|
Karl Barks posted:places where US hard power worked really well: So, this is proof, in your mind that hard power is impotent, but soft power is effective? I'm pretty sure the US has been trying to use soft power to solve the Iranian issue for...40 years, with exactly zero to show for it. I'm not sure what your point is about VZ either, it appears that for the most part the US is ignoring it entirely and allowing Socialism to take it's natural historical course
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:09
|
|
|
lollontee posted:i mean, that's where technology comes in, right? If we went hell to leather on making modular small nuclear reactors in the U.S. you could bury in a foot of concrete and run the pipes over the heat generated, it'd only scoot to a "maybe", because we'd also have to export that technology to a bunch of other people as well, and give out massive subsidies for it as well. The energy return on energy invested on things like solar and wind (1-7 years, depending on a number of factors, *excluding* cost of making the electric power dispatchable, and excluding how climate change might affect the yield of solar and wind power), or anything else I'm currently aware of in the market takes too long unless we started, again, about three to four decades ago. I'd be happy to be wrong, and I may be so, but evaluating and working with non-carbon power sources on the engineering side of things (not really a finance guy, as FAU has been able to show) pretty much describes the last decade of my life. gobbagool posted:what's your timeline again? I'd love to take some long term action on that, if you're up for it If you want to "do your part" I'd 100% suggest that you start doing things like making a biochar reactor and getting your local municipality into adopting one of those buggers as part of their recycling program, especially if you are an outdoorsy/gardener type guy, bonus points if you can work it into Terra Preta and have it sold as high quality potting soil to subsidize/pay for the process. It is like the best thing that hits "good, cheap, accessible" for carbon sequestration. gobbagool posted:So, this is proof, in your mind that hard power is impotent, but soft power is effective? I'm pretty sure the US has been trying to use soft power to solve the Iranian issue for...40 years, with exactly zero to show for it. I'm not sure what your point is about VZ either, it appears that for the most part the US is ignoring it entirely and allowing Socialism to take it's natural historical course The "Iranian issue" came from an expression of hard power with the U.S./British support in Operation Ajax... The Dipshit has issued a correction as of 17:24 on Jan 25, 2018 |
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:14
|
|
|
Why are you arguing with this guy lmao, jesus
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:19
|
|
|
FactsAreUseless posted:Why are you arguing with this guy lmao, jesus yeah i regret my posts
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:19
|
|
|
The argument isn't even about anything, it's people using terms whose definition they haven't agreed on saying nothing.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:20
|
|
|
climate change isn't going to half world production, it'll end up displacing a lot of people, and will require massive spending, on the scale that most governments are unwilling to do right now, but it own't end the world, it will only make things a little more poo poo
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:21
|
|
|
Karl Barks posted:yeah i regret my posts
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:21
|
|
|
rudatron posted:climate change isn't going to half world production, it'll end up displacing a lot of people, and will require massive spending, on the scale that most governments are unwilling to do right now, but it own't end the world, it will only make things a little more poo poo
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:23
|
|
|
Triangle Shirt Factotum posted:If we went hell to leather on making modular small nuclear reactors in the U.S. you could bury in a foot of concrete and run the pipes over the heat generated, it'd only scoot to a "maybe", because we'd also have to export that technology to a bunch of other people as well, and give out massive subsidies for it as well. The energy return on energy invested on things like solar and wind (1-7 years, depending on a number of factors, *excluding* cost of making the electric power dispatchable, and excluding how climate change might affect the yield of solar and wind power), or anything else I'm currently aware of in the market takes too long unless we started, again, about three to four decades ago. I'm 100% in favor of expanded nuclear power, and would love to see safe, small, clean distributed power generation. I really wanted to build a windmill on my property to pair with solar and battery, but the paperwork for a windmill is insane here, even though i'm in a perfect spot at the top of a river valley where it's windy pretty much all the time. I'd not heard of a biochar reactor before, but i looked it up and I think a guy up the road has one of these, i think i'll ask him about it, i have acres and acres of woodland here so this might be a great idea, ty
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:24
|
|
|
and the majority of that spending is going to be on infrastructure projects - sea walls, dams, dykes, rain water capture + distribution works, along with massive expenditures on increasing yields, because no one is moving in the right direction to actually run a low carbon economy, which means the name of the game is 'adaptation'. also the arctic and antarctic are gonna open up, so you might se settlement and mining there, and the northwest passage is gonna be a big thing too
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:25
|
|
|
rudatron posted:and the majority of that spending is going to be on infrastructure projects - sea walls, dams, dykes, rain water capture + distribution works, along with massive expenditures on increasing yields, because no one is moving in the right direction to actually run a low carbon economy, which means the name of the game is 'adaptation'.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:27
|
|
|
rudatron posted:climate change isn't going to half world production, it'll end up displacing a lot of people, and will require massive spending, on the scale that most governments are unwilling to do right now, but it own't end the world, it will only make things a little more poo poo I'd say a lot more poo poo, but probably only "just" more poo poo for you and I. The human cost will not be evenly distributed.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:27
|
|
|
FactsAreUseless posted:I think you're underestimating the effect of massive displacement, some of which is going to be internal. America, Europe, and east Asia will respond by closing their borders and letting people die. It's entirely possible they won't have any other choice. so what you're saying is that other countries are literally going to collapse in a couple decades, but not america?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:28
|
|
|
rudatron posted:and the majority of that spending is going to be on infrastructure projects - sea walls, dams, dykes, rain water capture + distribution works, along with massive expenditures on increasing yields, because no one is moving in the right direction to actually run a low carbon economy, which means the name of the game is 'adaptation'. Adapting to what? Climate changing ever more quickly and becoming ever more destructive? It's not like we're moving to a "new normal" we're in the middle of a geologic event on par with the meteor that killed the dinosaurs.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:30
|
|
|
FactsAreUseless posted:I think you're underestimating the effect of massive displacement, some of which is going to be internal. America, Europe, and east Asia will respond by closing their borders and letting people die. It's entirely possible they won't have any other choice. so let's take an example here: a warming planet means that vast areas of siberia will unfreeze, and may become habitable. Russia is already a failing state, so let's just say that it's still this failed state, that's been crushed by its own corruption, and it can't protect it's own border. most of the loyal population, those who idenfity as russian, iare located in the west. if people just moved up into this new area, and took that territory, and held it by force, guerilla style, could you really stop them?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:32
|
|
|
gobbagool posted:so what you're saying is that other countries are literally going to collapse in a couple decades, but not america? What I've specifically argued against was this idea that somehow China will step up in our place. Since you're a conservative, your implicit argument is that everything is fine, none of this will happen, with a side of white supremacy. Whoops, conservatism is an intellectually bankrupt ideology, who knew?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:34
|
|
|
rudatron posted:so let's take an example here: a warming planet means that vast areas of siberia will unfreeze, and may become habitable. No, this is not the way global warming works, not to mention soil dynamics. Siberia getting warmer doesn't mean it becomes habitable, it means there's a giant mud pile releasing methane and carbon into the atmosphere at an even greater rate than it does now. At worst the clathrates melt and humanity is pushed to the brink of extinction.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:34
|
|
|
rudatron posted:i'm not underestimating it, i'm just not sure how it will pan out. we're already well into the phase of seeing massive border closure and a migrant backlash, so i don't doubt that anti-refugee sentiment will be quite high. but people moving also tend to be desperate, and there's no guarantee that everywhere the migrants could move to is actually going to be stable enough themselves.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:36
|
|
|
rudatron posted:climate change isn't going to half world production, it'll end up displacing a lot of people, and will require massive spending, on the scale that most governments are unwilling to do right now, but it own't end the world, it will only make things a little more poo poo I think you're completely underestimating the scale of the coming disruptions. For reference, read about The General Crisis brought about by the little Ice Age and note that that was a 1 degree temp anomaly (aka much much smaller then what's coming). The conflicts that comprised the General Crisis quote:The Thirty Years War in Germany (1618–48) Huge areas of the world experienced a population drop of nearly a third.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:46
|
|
|
okay, but the migrants aren't just a force being acted on, they're also a force themselves. I dunno, i wouldn't just write them off
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:48
|
|
|
FactsAreUseless posted:I've said from the start that America is going to decline, and that "collapse" is a power fantasy - an optimistic idea of improving quality of life through dramatic change. Life for a majority of Americans will just become a miserable grind of barely-subsistence de facto slave labor. Expect to see a lot more corporate power and a lower standard of living. The great climate die-off won't hit us hardest, but skyrocketing prices and resource scarcity will hurt. All that along with an accusation of racism! "Miserable grind of barely subsistence de facto slave labor" wow talk about breathless hyperbole. You are really terrified of your own shadow, arent you?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:51
|
|
|
rudatron posted:okay, but the migrants aren't just a force being acted on, they're also a force themselves. I dunno, i wouldn't just write them off For a previous example of this, we can note that the migration period was associated with a climate anomaly. one suggested to be part of the same bond cycle as the general crisis and the bronze age collapse. climate migrants aren't passive victims but the universal trend of the dynamics put in place by climate change is survival of the sociopathic.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:54
|
|
|
SickZip posted:I think you're completely underestimating the scale of the coming disruptions. For reference, read about The General Crisis brought about by the little Ice Age and note that that was a 1 degree temp anomaly (aka much much smaller then what's coming). the three main issues are the direct temperature threat (heat stroke) in limited areas, lowered or greater variability in precipitation, and acreage of arable land. all 3 of those issues are technically solvable, and research is active in the last two. transgenic crops are probably going to be effectively mandatory, and worst comes to worse serious water conservation, recycling and maybe desalinization will have to come into play. the issue is how expensive that is all going to be, which then ties into how much of the total labor pool will be dedicated to building and maintaining this vast system, to guarantee the necessities of life - the greater the required labor pool, the worse of everyone is, and that pulls away labor from other products or projects. but they all have technical solutions, which is something that societies of the path never had, when they faced the same issues.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 17:58
|
|
|
gobbagool posted:All that along with an accusation of racism! "Miserable grind of barely subsistence de facto slave labor" wow talk about breathless hyperbole. You are really terrified of your own shadow, arent you?
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 18:03
|
|
|
rudatron posted:and the majority of that spending is going to be on infrastructure projects - sea walls, dams, dykes, rain water capture + distribution works, along with massive expenditures on increasing yields, because no one is moving in the right direction to actually run a low carbon economy, which means the name of the game is 'adaptation'. Also ultra-nationalism with both left-wing and right-wing faces, but characterized in each case by Malthusian right-wing thinking, massive border security, and massive state intervention to put down unrest and adapt the economy to our hell future The center can't hold and we'll probably see revolutions and counter revolutions, race war/imperialist war/class war, and massive crime waves and disorder resulting in marshall law at minimum with fascism waiting in the wings if the capitalist social order gets threatened Some oil execs will probably be sacrificial lambs for appeasement's sake if they don't flee first
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 18:04
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 15:26 |
|
|
rudatron posted:the three main issues are the direct temperature threat (heat stroke) in limited areas, lowered or greater variability in precipitation, and acreage of arable land.
|
|
#
?
Jan 25, 2018 18:05
|
|