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Much like the fighting for al-baby, Turkey seems determined to fight this battle as personally uncommitted and lazily as possible.
Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 20:13 on Jan 26, 2018 |
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Jan 26, 2018 20:11
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Turkey is Bad
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Jan 26, 2018 20:23
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Saladin Rising posted:https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/956903913768280065 It might be because there were/possibly still are a lot of Russian (and SAA?) soldiers there.
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Jan 26, 2018 20:36
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Turkish incompetence is the only hope for this region.
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Jan 26, 2018 21:24
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Cat Mattress posted:Turkish incompetence is the only hope for this region.
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Jan 26, 2018 21:35
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Saladman posted:It might be because there were/possibly still are a lot of Russian (and SAA?) soldiers there. According to YPG, those pulled out before Turks started the shelling. But who knows, really. Turkey being incompetent and thinking of doing some 'surprise attack from all sides but the one they expect OMG, we'll make 'em panic!' strat seems most likely at the end of the day. Hell, I'd believe it after all the purges Erdogan made of military personnel that there wasn't one guy left who dared make a peep as to how lovely an opening move this'll be vs the Kurds. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 22:12 on Jan 26, 2018 |
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Jan 26, 2018 22:08
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That salient was a couple years in the making and is presumably well defended. It seems like Turkey is probing for weakness elsewhere and hoping to overstretch their lines. Every time the YPG has to reposition, they become more vulnerable to air attacks, so that seems like a valid approach. It could just be incompetence though, I suppose.
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Jan 26, 2018 22:30
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This is unexpected. https://twitter.com/MrKyruer/status/956995590382026753
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Jan 26, 2018 23:09
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Sinteres posted:This is unexpected. Why surprising? Even Wikipedia says they’re allied with the YPG and SDF
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Jan 26, 2018 23:34
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Liwa Shamal al-Democrati is the Northern Democratic Brigade, formerly known under the amusing name of Al Qaqa brigade. They've joined the SDF back in 2015 and have clashed with the TFSA since 2016, so it's not surprising of them. Jabhat al-Akrad is the Kurdish Front, it's a Kurdish militia. Again, not surprising. Finally, Jaysh al-Thuwar is the Army of Revolutionaries, a multiethnic coalition allied with the YPG and part of the SDF. Same comment.
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Jan 26, 2018 23:37
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Cat Mattress posted:Liwa Shamal al-Democrati is the Northern Democratic Brigade, formerly known under the amusing name of Al Qaqa brigade. They've joined the SDF back in 2015 and have clashed with the TFSA since 2016, so it's not surprising of them. Jabhat al-Akrad is the Kurdish Front, it's a Kurdish militia. Again, not surprising. Finally, Jaysh al-Thuwar is the Army of Revolutionaries, a multiethnic coalition allied with the YPG and part of the SDF. Same comment. It’s neat seeing the multi-ethnic militias joining in. Kinda complicates Turkey’s genocide plans. Not that anything Turkey does is fact based.
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Jan 26, 2018 23:40
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Oh here’s a good article bee tee dubs https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status/957020598475116547
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Jan 26, 2018 23:47
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I just would have expected other groups to take the opportunity to bow out, not to fight on what seems to be the pretty clear losing side. I guess we'll see if that's too pessimistic.
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Jan 26, 2018 23:59
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Sinteres posted:I just would have expected other groups to take the opportunity to bow out, not to fight on what seems to be the pretty clear losing side. I guess we'll see if that's too pessimistic. I direct your attention to the thread title. Also this ain’t the Kurds’ first rodeo. When you’ve been genocided numerous times and are as battle hardened and used to being hosed over by allies as much as these guys are... Yeah bowing out doesn’t seem to be an option. Now making deals with Assad or Russia? Maybe a little more likely. Probably anything to fight another day. What about Iraq though? How hosed are those Kurds?
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Jan 27, 2018 00:17
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I can't imagine any scenario where Turkey and its proxies come out ahead. SUppose they capture the entire area. Then what? a permanent Turkish military occupation of Syria? Won't happen, if anything Putin won't allow it. A puppet administration based on....the Turkish backed rebels? In a predominately Kurdish area that is also surrounded by a hostile SAA who will be more than happy to keep the YPG supplied if it meant loving with Erdogan, who let us not forget is still in the "Assad must go" camp? All the YPG has to do is to not all die. Just go underground until the Turks run out of bombs and operational tempo - they can't continuously keep up 70+ F16s on rotation every day, and eventually the Russians will have to either tell them to GTFO or an S-300 will get to stretch its legs. Assad is a much more potent threat, because unlike the Turks the SAA don't have another country to go back to.
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Jan 27, 2018 00:18
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Who's going to write the article that says the kurds shouldn't have been fence sitters and should have gotten genocided with honor.
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Jan 27, 2018 02:27
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Throatwarbler posted:I can't imagine any scenario where Turkey and its proxies come out ahead. SUppose they capture the entire area. Then what? a permanent Turkish military occupation of Syria? Won't happen, if anything Putin won't allow it. A puppet administration based on....the Turkish backed rebels? In a predominately Kurdish area that is also surrounded by a hostile SAA who will be more than happy to keep the YPG supplied if it meant loving with Erdogan, who let us not forget is still in the "Assad must go" camp? Fighting doomed battles against Turkey is kind of what the PKK does. Maybe Assad will be willing to assist them a bit, but I still don't see why the YPG without an air force is assumed to be superior to the TFSA with one in the long run. Especially if Turkey does start resettling refugees in Afrin, the area may not remain predominantly Kurdish forever; Turkey hasn't exactly shied away from destroying Kurdish villages in the past, and while the campaign seems to have been relatively restrained so far in terms of indiscriminate attacks, my guess is escalation is their next step if things don't go as planned rather than withdrawal.
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Jan 27, 2018 02:49
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Throatwarbler posted:I can't imagine any scenario where Turkey and its proxies come out ahead. SUppose they capture the entire area. Then what? a permanent Turkish military occupation of Syria? Won't happen, if anything Putin won't allow it. A puppet administration based on....the Turkish backed rebels? In a predominately Kurdish area that is also surrounded by a hostile SAA who will be more than happy to keep the YPG supplied if it meant loving with Erdogan, who let us not forget is still in the "Assad must go" camp? Remember that the Syrian government still considers Hatay province to be part of Syria. So now Turkey is settling into the Euphrates shield area, and I’m sure they’re thinking they’re going to take Afrin too. Assad being this insane “I’m going to keep all of my territory” dude is probably not going to stand for that for long. Basically the Levant is going to be infinity war.
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Jan 27, 2018 03:08
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I think that's basically it about this. If Afrin can last for something like a year or so, I don't see a way the Turks and rebels can do poo poo against them in the long run. Even if they won the territory after that, the locals would probably be more than ready to transition to poo poo that would require a ton of harsh occupation with brutal and graphic images inevitably coming out of it. If Turkey does, however, manage to pull off a quick takeover somehow and they turn out not to be as inept as everyone assumes they are, due to their recent military purges, well then...they'll still have a rough time of it, but they could deffo get around to a lot of genocide poo poo while in control of Afrin to the point that, eventually, they go: "What Kurds? There never were any Kurds here" and count on international inertia to win the day. By far the biggest comedy option, tho, would be if Kurds link the cantons because of this incursion, for which they had no casus belli before the Turks decided to try and take Afrin. It's p unlikely, but I'd deffo laugh my rear end off at Erdogan forever if it happened, as I'm pretty sure it'd be the worst outcome in terms of his political reputation in his own country: went to war to take back poo poo and instead lost poo poo he already had.
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Jan 27, 2018 09:33
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Sinteres posted:I just would have expected other groups to take the opportunity to bow out, not to fight on what seems to be the pretty clear losing side. I guess we'll see if that's too pessimistic. I mean Turkey spent years sheltering ISIS and doing almost everything possible to facilitate their growth. Kinda stands to reason that anyone who has fought ISIS previously hasn't forgotten the years Turkey kept the border completely open to ISIS recruits and supplies and oil. Also idk what Turkey really expects; Turkish propaganda about the virility of the turkish military is one thing, but Syria is quite a loving hornets nest to stick your dick into. After so many years of conflict, Syria is one of the greatest concentrations of combat experienced fighters on the planet (fighters who cut their teeth in the SCW will be to the next generation what Chechen fighters have been to conflicts for this generation). I'd be interested to hear from someone with more intimate knowledge of the Kurds about just how prepared they are, because a Turkish conflict with the Kurds popping off has been written on the wall since the US delivered the first MRAP or ATGM to the Kurds. It's hard to imagine they haven't been preparing for this eventuality. Throatwarbler posted:I can't imagine any scenario where Turkey and its proxies come out ahead. SUppose they capture the entire area. Then what? a permanent Turkish military occupation of Syria? Won't happen, if anything Putin won't allow it. A puppet administration based on....the Turkish backed rebels? In a predominately Kurdish area that is also surrounded by a hostile SAA who will be more than happy to keep the YPG supplied if it meant loving with Erdogan, who let us not forget is still in the "Assad must go" camp? Well it's finally happened that I agree with you after all these years. None of Turkeys stated goals seem even vaguely feasible: the map they released is a loving pipe dream on almost every level; the resettling displaced Syrians into Kurdish lands isn't going to happen barring literal depopulation of the Kurds and the Kurds have almost certainly built up enough international good will that a new extermination of Kurd population centers isn't going to go over again. Nor, frankly, is almost anyone feeling too charitable to Erdogan. The amount of international condemnation of Turkey's plans before they even started speaks volumes. If Turkey suddenly gets expansionist ideas they'll destabilize everything between the Persian Gulf and the Atlantic. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 10:27 on Jan 27, 2018 |
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Jan 27, 2018 10:10
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Waleed bin Talal's been freed after he gave the government the money at gunpoint. drat I was kind of hoping he'd die in there. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42846282 bonus video of him giving people a tour of his 5 star hotel cell.
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Jan 27, 2018 17:18
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Herstory Begins Now posted:I mean Turkey spent years sheltering ISIS and doing almost everything possible to facilitate their growth. Kinda stands to reason that anyone who has fought ISIS previously hasn't forgotten the years Turkey kept the border completely open to ISIS recruits and supplies and oil. I'm not sure about expansionist goals, but I would imagine all this plays very nicely with Erdogan's domestic support. In the 2015 election, the AKP, for the first time since coming into power in 2002, lost their majority rule. At the time, there was a pretty effective ceasefire with the PKK and good relationship with the Kurds in Northern Iraq. The results showed that strong showing for the Kurdish HDP was a significant reason for AKP's loss. Instead of negotiating a coalition to run the government, Erdogan called for another election three or four months later, ramped up his "terrorist" rhetoric against the PKK and YPG, accused HDP leaders of being Kurdish terrorists/associates, and has been on an anti-Kurd kick since then. Not surprisingly, the next election saw the AKP back on top. The PKK has been a Turkish boogeyman for decades, and Erdogan wanted to shore up support to keep himself in charge and pass the changes he needed to give the presidency more powers. I was in Bursa when the PKK ceasefire was in effect and remember seeing some of my Turkish friends absolutely lose their poo poo because they heard two young teenagers on the subway speaking to each other in Kurdish. When I was in Turkey last, in 2016, there were Syrian refugees everywhere in Bursa, Istanbul, etc. My local friends were telling me about housing shortages, huge spikes in property crime (Erdogan brought in more than 2 million Syrians without any plan on providing jobs/education in an already strained economy), and so on. I imagine military action against the Kurds and promises to move the refugees back to Syria are both extremely popular causes back home. Erdogan's base is also much more Anti-American, NATO/EU-skeptic, so Erdogan standing up the The West is probably also very popular.
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Jan 27, 2018 19:37
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So, Afghanistan isn't doing that great, even by the standards of Afghanistan. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42843897
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Jan 27, 2018 20:09
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DonDoodles posted:I imagine military action against the Kurds and promises to move the refugees back to Syria are both extremely popular causes back home. Erdogan's base is also much more Anti-American, NATO/EU-skeptic, so Erdogan standing up the The West is probably also very popular. This is the part that makes me absolutely loving baffled as to why NATO chief publicly comments on Afrin: "Welp, the turks have a right to defend themselves!  " I mean cripes, does he really think that's gonna get Erdogan to look to The West more favorably? That cause is already lost, because if he does a full 180 now, then his nationalistic and xenophobic base genuinely will coup him and replace him with someone else. Like you said, after he called for re-election and denied the kurdish base the chance to be part of a coalition, he locked himself into this role and now he has to play the part of it, with the purges, violations of democracy and xenophobia that all comes along with it. It is his only card and claim to power now.Worked out great for Milošević in Yugoslavia in the end lol. Let's see if history can't repeat itself again or if he'll manage to hang on due to NATO hoping he'll come around eventually. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 21:19 on Jan 27, 2018 |
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Jan 27, 2018 21:07
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CrazyLoon posted:I mean cripes, does he really think that's gonna get Erdogan to look to The West more favorably? That cause is already lost, because if he does a full 180 now, then his nationalistic and xenophobic base genuinely will coup him and replace him with someone else. He's pivoted on enough issues over the years that I believe in his ability to do so again. Much like other strongman leaders, his personal popularity is more important to a lot of his supporters than whatever position he's taking today.
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Jan 27, 2018 21:13
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CherryCola posted:Remember that the Syrian government still considers Hatay province to be part of Syria. So now Turkey is settling into the Euphrates shield area, and I’m sure they’re thinking they’re going to take Afrin too. Assad being this insane “I’m going to keep all of my territory” dude is probably not going to stand for that for long. Basically the Levant is going to be infinity war. quote:The Syrian government gave instructions to all hospitals to receive as a priority any casualties among #Kurds due to Turkish "Olive Branch" military ops against #Afrin In other news, woo more history destruction: https://twitter.com/RodiSad/status/957236133221584896 quote:The Turkish warplanes destroyed the archeological site of Ain Dara and temple yard in Afrin by hitting it with several airstrikes on Friday. https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/957228323427569665 quote:#Afrin: Video shows #OliveBranch forces capturing a #YPG fighter today. azyrr, a Turkish user on Reddit posted:That video is really telling. The Turkish soldiers barely got the guy out of there. The tfsa seem to be hesitant to even hand him over. They had to reassure them many times to get the prisoner. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Jan 27, 2018 |
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Jan 27, 2018 21:13
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mobby_6kl posted:So, Afghanistan isn't doing that great, even by the standards of Afghanistan. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42843897 That's the fourth terrorist attack this year in Kabul alone. There's been over a dozen in total across all of Afghanistan :l
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Jan 27, 2018 22:06
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Having just re-read the CIA chief in Saigons final message specifically “Those who fail to learn from history are forced to repeat it. Let us hope that we will not have another Vietnam experience and that we have learned our lesson.” - I have re-discovered my morbid fascination with Afghanistan. Anyone know what the projection for foreign forces staying are at the moment? I seem to recall leaders saying back in 2011 that they were going to leave the country in the hands of the ANA, but now Trump is on, and his administration says they'll stay the mission. What exactly is going to happen?
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Jan 27, 2018 22:25
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Sinteres posted:He's pivoted on enough issues over the years that I believe in his ability to do so again. Much like other strongman leaders, his personal popularity is more important to a lot of his supporters than whatever position he's taking today. Which is probably the biggest reason why Gulen and Hizmet had to go. I'm also guessing that was Selahattin Demirtaş' downfall as well, although being Kurdish obviously didn't help. I've seen Erdogan speak a few times in Bursa -- he has a big support base there and often campaigned during mayoral/local elections -- and it was always clear that regardless of the candidate or election, a vote for AKP was a vote for Tayyip. The irony is that a lot of Kurds really liked the AKP in the 2009-2012 years because they lifted a lot of the bogus restrictions against Kurdish-language TV and displays of Kurdish culture. That's all back into play, of course. Got this from a VOA article on Erdogan's motivations for driving the YPG out of Syria: quote:Gonul Tol, an analyst with the Middle East Institute, a Washington-based policy research organization, says that persuading Erdogan not to move on Manbij will likely prove extremely difficult. He argues one of the driving factors behind the offensive is Erdogan’s goal of “galvanizing [Turkish] nationalists ahead of critical 2019 elections.” https://www.voanews.com/a/ergodan-says-he-is-ready-to-risk-confrontation-with-us/4227613.html He'll no-doubt get support from the MHP, and with the Kurds once again repressed and the HDP out of play, there's no way the CHP will put up might of a fight during the next election unless the Syria incursion blows up in his face. He can then continue to blame the Kurds and the U.S. DonDoodles fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Jan 27, 2018 |
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Jan 27, 2018 22:34
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It's just been noticed that Strava has released a heat map for activity of its apps, allowing people to see where their apps are being used. One *tiny* problem is it appears soldiers from across the world have been using their apps, and it's possible to use it to find things like military bases and apparent patrol routes across the world: https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/957318498102865920 https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/957333917119508481
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Jan 27, 2018 22:49
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Brown Moses posted:It's just been noticed that Strava has released a heat map for activity of its apps, allowing people to see where their apps are being used. One *tiny* problem is it appears soldiers from across the world have been using their apps, and it's possible to use it to find things like military bases and apparent patrol routes across the world: Wow what the poo poo
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Jan 27, 2018 22:55
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This is a good thread with lots of examples from across the world: https://twitter.com/arawnsley/status/957356785442152448
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Jan 27, 2018 22:59
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lol at any military that allows their soldiers to have iphones while on the field. what a bunch of bozos.
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Jan 27, 2018 23:01
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Al-Saqr posted:lol at any military that allows their soldiers to have iphones while on the field. what a bunch of bozos. Looks like the US, China and Russia all hosed up, so North Korea gets to rule the world now.
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Jan 27, 2018 23:20
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Sinteres posted:Looks like the US, China and Russia all hosed up, so North Korea gets to rule the world now. RIP all those bases anyone can already see from space. All hail glorious leader.
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Jan 27, 2018 23:26
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The idea that professional militaries allow consumer electronics that isn't hardware-designed for military use is hilarious. it's such an big intelligence gap, even Hezbollah back in 2006 forbade any use of non-hardline phones because they knew that mobile phones are crazy easy to intercept.
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Jan 27, 2018 23:32
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when the next war comes, it is pretty clear that no sides will know how to fight it. Those first few months will make august 1914 look like childsplay.
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Jan 27, 2018 23:40
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HorrificExistence posted:when the next war comes, it is pretty clear that no sides will know how to fight it. Those first few months will make august 1914 look like childsplay. lol if there's any big war between major powers we'll all be dead within the first 48 hours so I guess you're right about that.
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Jan 27, 2018 23:46
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Al-Saqr posted:lol if there's any big war between major powers we'll all be dead within the first 48 hours so I guess you're right about that. nah i think we'll wait to about 3 months of hilarity to nuke ourselves
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Jan 28, 2018 00:03
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mobby_6kl posted:So, Afghanistan isn't doing that great, even by the standards of Afghanistan. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-42843897 Wow, I guess the Pakistanis really had their jimmies rustled by Trump.
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Jan 28, 2018 01:14
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