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Count Roland posted:I wonder how Hezbollah will behave in the next war. Hezbollah should just take over Syria already
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Feb 3, 2018 08:16
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Volkerball posted:Some pretty interesting poll results following the protests in Iran. The headline is reductive. There's a lot of information in the article. Interesting but how accurate is this? Should we generally trust polls coming from authoritarian states?
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Feb 3, 2018 08:22
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well, its not like its counterintuitive
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Feb 3, 2018 08:29
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Sinteres posted:He wasn't a nice guy, and deserved what happened to him. I don't think he was going to show up to Benghazi with candy and flowers to win them over or anything, but where he actually had captured cities, the carnage seemed to be relatively contained once the fighting ended. Urban warfare isn't pretty even in the best of circumstances, so I'm sure the city's capture would have been messy, but it's not like the last few years have been all sunshine and happiness either. The benghazi intervention was before violent resistance had even meaningfully started, there wasn't a track record of Gadaffi retaking cities at that point. Once the US blew the poo poo out of the convoy and signalled further support, that was when major armed resistance meaningfully kicked off. Gaddafi's legacy of dealing with opposition was locking them in torture prisons for literal decades. IIRC protesters broke into a couple of these prisons and freed a people who had been incarcerated indefinitely, which formed an early core of the resistance. A similar thing happened in Syria, albeit Assad was more pro-active about releasing the prisoners. Assad and Gaddafi really were using the same playbook, though Assad was a hundred times more in tune with western tolerances for brutality and the desire for some plausible deniability. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 09:28 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 09:23
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Sinteres posted:
I read the Israeli press and their American supporters from time to time and it's clear that a lot of people are still super butt-hurt over the 2006 war (lol) and fancy a rematch, if for no other reason than to re-establish the trope of Israeli invincibility.
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Feb 3, 2018 09:36
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Savy Saracen salad posted:Interesting but how accurate is this? Should we generally trust polls coming from authoritarian states? quote:Asked why anyone should trust the answers, given the restrictive nature of the Iranian system, Ebrahim Mohseni, a research scholar at CISSM who designed the poll and who has been studying Iranian public opinion since 2006, defended his methodology. He told Al-Monitor that the latest findings were in line with previous surveys and that respondents select "quite a few responses that are far from the official positions of the Islamic Republic." I'd give it a few more percentage points of error to be on the safe side, but al monitor is pretty reliable. Barbara Slavin is a bit of an ideologue, but there's quite a few findings in the article that don't fit her bent, so it seems pretty neutral to me. And it's a case by case basis. Some polls you can throw out before the results even come in.
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Feb 3, 2018 14:42
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Looks like Russia lost a jet earlier today. Here is some footage of the wreck. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/959807906374963200 Reports are that the pilot survived.
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Feb 3, 2018 16:36
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Footage from the ground: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7G92t2MXBY Mixed reports of the pilot being captured/executed/killed in the crash.
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Feb 3, 2018 16:52
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Looks like it could be MANPADS if this footage is to be believed edit: better video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dEmFbuPJAFk https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/959802233440358402 Radio Prune fucked around with this message at 17:19 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 17:15
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https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/959864063239966720@AlArabiya_Eng posted:President $Erdogan says #Turkish military operation in #Afrin about to end http://ara.tv/b2y26 Bold strategy Cotton, let's see if it pays off. WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 20:04 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 18:25
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/959804168423718913 A big "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" banner over a handful of villages on the border.
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Feb 3, 2018 19:14
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What did Erdogan actually say? It looks like that got reported a few hours ago but I'm not seeing any coverage of this anywhere besides Al Arabiya
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Feb 3, 2018 19:20
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Looks like the tweet was deleted.
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Feb 3, 2018 19:27
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Darkman Fanpage posted:Looks like the tweet was deleted. Back up, they just deleted because of the $ I guess. Still don't know if it's true though. gently caress it would be funny though. e: "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-troops-getting-close-to-afrin-city-erdogan-126736%22 posted:
WhiskeyWhiskers fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 20:05
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So if anyone was wondering what's happening in south Yemen, it seems likely the separatists and Hadi government are going to come to some kind of settlement. Although separatists still control most of Aden, the city has been quiet for the last several days while coalition troops are enforcing what's basically a ceasefire and protecting the Prime Minister's residence. This crisis and the Houthi clashes with Saleh's organization are I believe a product of the enormous strain placed on Yemeni politics and society by the deprivations of war. Before the clashes in Aden it finally seemed the Saudi coalition was making progress. Besides losing some of Saleh's followers, the Houthi have also finally exhausted their reserves of foreign currency which means they are struggling to pay and supply their soldiers. As a result their moral and strength has weakened, and the coalition had made small advances on several fronts. However it now seems unlikely that the coalition can maintain that momentum. Hadi aligned forces were withdrawn from the area near Taiz and Hodeideh to confront the separatists. It is unclear how long the standoff will continue or how much of the coalition's strength is being consumed by internal conflicts. Politics in Yemen is characterized by grand coalitions of competing interests, and Hadi, long based out of distant Riyadh, seems ill-suited to delicate balancing act required to keep the system functioning. Add in the omnipresent threat of Al Qaeda and IS and the internal threats to Hadi's rule look almost as great as that posed by the Houthi. This war seems like it's less about who can beat the other on the battlefield and more about who collapses into such severe infighting that people start switching sides first. Squalid fucked around with this message at 20:11 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 20:08
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This article came out today and now Egyptian state mouthpieces are scrambling to legitimize Sisi's anti-Israel cred. https://twitter.com/3arabawy/status/959867965297524736?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1 Israel has conducted 100 operations against insurgents in the Sinai over the past 2 years at the request of the Egyptian government.
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Feb 3, 2018 20:28
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Back up, they just deleted because of the $ I guess. Still don't know if it's true though. gently caress it would be funny though. lmao, I'm sorry, but I just can't stop drawing parallels to this and Serbia's poo poo during the 90s, or at least I suppose I'm hoping it's a repeat of history in this particular instance. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOxkyGh_bvs "Samo hrabro slomljeni su definitivno" = "Just be brave, they are definitely broken" Then a supposed 3-day siege becomes 3 months. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 21:00 on Feb 3, 2018 |
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Feb 3, 2018 20:38
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Russia seems to be bombing the gently caress out of Idlib in retaliation for losing a plane, and Turkey seems to be shelling the gently caress out of Afrin in retaliation for losing a tank and its crew today, so as usual it's a bad day to be a civilian in a war zone.
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Feb 3, 2018 23:06
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Confirmed, Russian pilot is dead, there's pictures and video: https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/7uzwq6/photo_of_the_killed_russian_pilot/ Link shows a dead body, so click with care.
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Feb 3, 2018 23:43
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Saladin Rising posted:Confirmed, Russian pilot is dead, there's pictures and video: thank goodness, for a second there I thought that fascist pilot got away. good on those rebels!
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Feb 3, 2018 23:56
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Back up, they just deleted because of the $ I guess. Still don't know if it's true though. gently caress it would be funny though. Wait, are they suggesting they achieved a total victory despite the fact all reports make it clear they have barely advanced at all?
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Feb 3, 2018 23:56
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Volkerball posted:This article came out today and now Egyptian state mouthpieces are scrambling to legitimize Sisi's anti-Israel cred. lol incredible, absolutely incredible, one of the biggest talking points of the egyptian fascists is that they are the only people who can make egypt 'safe' well it turns out they cant even secure anything, loool. Either ways I'm not surprised, the egyptian military regime is essentially an Israeli-gulf client state anyways. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Feb 4, 2018 |
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Feb 4, 2018 00:00
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Al-Saqr posted:thank goodness, for a second there I thought that fascist pilot got away. good on those rebels! Didn't you make a new years resolution or something to cut down on this sort of thing?
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Feb 4, 2018 01:02
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Radio Prune posted:Looks like it could be MANPADS if this footage is to be believed quote:Man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) are shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles (SLSAMs). They are typically guided weapons and are a threat to low-flying aircraft, especially helicopters. Sinteres posted:Russia seems to be bombing the gently caress out of Idlib in retaliation for losing a plane, and Turkey seems to be shelling the gently caress out of Afrin in retaliation for losing a tank and its crew today, so as usual it's a bad day to be a civilian in a war zone. 
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Feb 4, 2018 01:32
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Count Roland posted:Didn't you make a new years resolution or something to cut down on this sort of thing? Youre right, I forgot. Thanks!
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Feb 4, 2018 01:42
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Al-Saqr posted:thank goodness, for a second there I thought that fascist pilot got away. good on those rebels! You're not supposed to kill ejecting pilots.
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Feb 4, 2018 02:25
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Human Grand Prix posted:You're not supposed to kill ejecting pilots. I know you're not posting this in good faith, so me taking the bait is of course inherently foolish, but you're not supposed to bomb hospitals and bakeries (and then first responders!), either.
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Feb 4, 2018 02:34
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Again, Liberal affinity for hardline Sunni Islamists has always struck me as bizarre.
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Feb 4, 2018 04:23
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Human Grand Prix posted:Again, Liberal affinity for hardline Sunni Islamists has always struck me as bizarre. I'm not remotely pro-jihadist, but after years of seeing countries fighting jihadists having the debate about whether or not advanced military powers have an obligation to abide by some level of lawful proportionality and generally not committing war crimes against an enemy that gleefully does so, it's still weird to me to see the argument reversed and for the jihadists to be held to a higher moral standard than one of the most powerful countries in the world. Of the crimes jihadists commit war crimes, but killing downed pilots who were just bombing them (and generally not taking great care to avoid civilians in the process) seems pretty reasonable in the context of the hellwar in Syria. We know the regime isn't exactly treating captured jihadists with kid gloves either. I'm self aware enough to admit that I'd be more upset if this were an American pilot, but honestly the expectation that pilots can safely do whatever they want from the safety of their plane, but get to call time out the second the enemy manages to bring them down, seems like the kind of rules you'd only find agreement on when both sides have pilots. There was at least one report that the pilot in this instance was fighting back too, though obviously the way downed pilots had been treated in the past in this war would have informed his actions if that is the case.
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Feb 4, 2018 04:46
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Human Grand Prix posted:Again, Liberal affinity for hardline Sunni Islamists has always struck me as bizarre. It's really not when you consider a half century of American liberal support for anti-communist Islamists.
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Feb 4, 2018 04:54
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So the Kurds blew up a tank?
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Feb 4, 2018 05:03
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Lawman 0 posted:So the Kurds blew up a tank? One operated by the Turkish military but technically it still counts.
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Feb 4, 2018 05:18
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Lawman 0 posted:So the Kurds blew up a tank? https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/959840479524409345
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Feb 4, 2018 05:19
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huh turns out the ottomans and russians are still militarily incompetent we'll try again in 2118
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Feb 4, 2018 05:21
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With regards to Egypt, they are slowly getting assassinated by the Ethiopian govt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_8X8tbjqjg
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Feb 4, 2018 07:17
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Human Grand Prix posted:Again, Liberal affinity for hardline Sunni Islamists has always struck me as bizarre. Oh of course you would jump to that conclusion! You cannot even conceive of a world where all actions aren't solely judged based on the team colour of the involved parties. That explains your pig-headed support for the fascists throughout all iterations of this thread: You pick whichever side initially seems to be the most 'anti-imperialist' (which is always the one that nominally opposes America the most - Phew, moral behaviour is easy!) and are afterwards spared all further need to think about anyone's actions. Regime did something? Always good! Regime took a loss? Always bad! It's no wonder that you automatically read an 'affinity for hardline Sunni Islamists' into a comment like mine. You have a completely black-and-white mind.
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Feb 4, 2018 07:25
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HorrificExistence posted:huh turns out the ottomans and russians are still militarily incompetent Wow, what a good post. How is losing a tank or a jet indicative of incompetence? The Russians have proven themselves to be at least competent since the first Chechen war, and that was after/during the complete collapse of their country. Turks are perhaps incompetent, but losing a tank to a weapon designed to kill tanks hardly shows it. I think if Turkey seriously committed its ground forces en mass it wouldn’t be going nearly as slowly in Afrin.
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Feb 4, 2018 08:30
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Jesus they hit its magazine or what?
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Feb 4, 2018 08:49
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One of the paradoxes of asymmetrical warfare is that if your intervention is premised on propaganda of the enemy as a weak and scattered "terrorist" peasant rabble, then it becomes a shocking upset any time they act like a normal army. If you pretend an invasion is just "moving the grass," then it's a a big surprise to see grass fight back.
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Feb 4, 2018 09:34
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Darkman Fanpage posted:Jesus they hit its magazine or what? Its far away so hard to tell where it got hit, but it didn't seem to brew up at all, it just blew the gently caress up- so I would say yeah, catastrophic hit to the main magazine turned it into a massive bomb. People would be finding bits of that tank for hundreds of years from now, if, y'know, it wasnt gonna be largely inhospitable to human life in a few decades
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Feb 4, 2018 09:57
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