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Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

I read it for an economics college course two years ago. Absolutely stellar.

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redsniper
Feb 15, 2012

Grouchio posted:

Does this thread ever get good news?

No, it's why we drink too much. Come to CSPAM. DEHUMANIZE YOURSELF AND FACE TO BLOODSHED! :black101:

Arglebargle III
Feb 21, 2006

Fasdar posted:

we really ought to, you know, rise up or something.

western liberalism in one sentence

WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Arglebargle III posted:

western liberalism in one sentence

Faved and retweeted, my work here is done

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy
A while ago, I was wondering if there might be some climate change-related benefit to drone delivery/logistics. fishmech explained to me that no, obviously not! Now I've come across two studies trying to model this.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S136192091630133X

Prof. Anne Goodchild posted:

- CO2 emissions and VMT are compared between truck and UAV/drone delivery models.
- Drones emit less when recipients were either nearby or few in number, or both.
- Trucks performed best when recipients were both far away and great in number.
- Drone VMT far outpaced that of trucks in the models.
- A blended delivery system with both trucks and drones would emit the least CO2.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920917304844

Miguel A.Figliozzi posted:

the results clearly indicate that UAVs are more CO2e efficient, for small payloads, than conventional diesel vans in a per-distance basis. Drastically different results are obtained when customers can be grouped in a delivery route. UAV deliveries are not more CO2e efficient than tricycle or electric van delivery services if a few customers can be grouped in a route. Vehicle phase CO2e emissions for UAVs are significant and must be taken into account. Ground vehicles are more efficient when comparing vehicles production and disposal emissions per delivery.

Interesting.

Fasdar
Sep 1, 2001

Everybody loves dancing!
It's almost like we need a variety of solutions optimized to specific cases.

Hello Sailor
May 3, 2006

we're all mad here

Cingulate posted:

fishmech explained

I found your problem.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

we need to die soon

tell me what i need to do to fulfill my duty to destroy civilization

ChairMaster
Aug 22, 2009

by R. Guyovich

enraged_camel posted:

we need to die soon

tell me what i need to do to fulfill my duty to destroy civilization

Business as usual. The flip side of having no power to fix things is that you also have no power to create any real acceleration.

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators
not true, just scam some investors with bitcoin ponzis and then use your profits to dump a bunch of iron and phosphorous off the gulf of mexico somewhere

bing bang bong simple

frytechnician
Jan 8, 2004

Happy to see me?

enraged_camel posted:

we need to die soon

tell me what i need to do to fulfill my duty to destroy civilization

First, stop posting. Second, get out there and start repeating your frankly tiring opinion that we should all die and civilization should collapse to real people if you want to make a real difference.

Conspiratiorist
Nov 12, 2015

17th Separate Kryvyi Rih Tank Brigade named after Konstantin Pestushko
Look to my coming on the first light of the fifth sixth some day
Actually they could just go and murder a few CEOs in the name of environmentalism. It'll either create backlash against environmentalist movements and policies or actually cause meaningful positive change, so either way it works out for them.

WeAreTheRomans
Feb 23, 2010

by R. Guyovich

Cingulate posted:

A while ago, I was wondering if there might be some climate change-related benefit to drone delivery/logistics

Interesting.

Tricycle delivery is an option?

Cingulate
Oct 23, 2012

by Fluffdaddy

WeAreTheRomans posted:

Tricycle delivery is an option?
I think they're talking about a hypothetical future electric wizard robot option to be implemented in the future where Elon Musk is king of the Fully Communist States of America.

white sauce
Apr 29, 2012

by R. Guyovich

Evil_Greven posted:

The global report is still not out, but U.S. national report was released on Friday. As expected, it ain't pretty:
"Based on preliminary analysis, the average annual temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 54.6°F, 2.6°F above the 20th century average. This was the third warmest year since record keeping began in 1895, behind 2012 (55.3°F) and 2016 (54.9°F), and the 21st consecutive warmer-than-average year for the U.S. (1997 through 2017). The five warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have all occurred since 2006. Since 1895, the CONUS has observed an average temperature increase of 1.5°F per century. Nationally, the average minimum (low) temperature was 42.8°F, the fourth warmest on record, while the average maximum (high) temperature was 66.4°F, the fifth warmest on record.

For the third consecutive year, every state across the contiguous U.S. and Alaska had an above-average annual temperature. Despite cold seasons in various regions throughout the year, above-average temperatures, often record breaking, during other parts of the year more than offset any seasonal cool conditions. Five states – Arizona, Georgia, New Mexico, North Carolina and South Carolina – had their warmest year on record. Thirty-two additional states, including Alaska, had annual temperatures that ranked among the 10 warmest on record."


This is only a tiny portion of the report and I encourage you to skim through it at least.



Just don't stop consuming. Ever.

We need corporate profits to keep rolling in.

white sauce
Apr 29, 2012

by R. Guyovich

enraged_camel posted:

we need to die soon

tell me what i need to do to fulfill my duty to destroy civilization

Have lots of kids, vote republican.

I'm not having kids but I am voting republican so we can all die faster.

white sauce
Apr 29, 2012

by R. Guyovich

Grouchio posted:

I was hoping to live for at least a millenia (through anti-aging tech), and witness humanity's 'progress'. Is that now guarenteed to be a bad idea?

:chloe:

Unless you're a multi-billionaire you ain't getting any anti-aging technology, cmon dude

Unormal
Nov 16, 2004

Mod sass? This evening?! But the cakes aren't ready! THE CAKES!
Fun Shoe
https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/958444765535666177

Ferdinand Bardamu
Apr 30, 2013

enraged_camel posted:

good. that's a start.

StabbinHobo
Oct 18, 2002

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
figure out a way to foul up the wyoming branches of the rail network

Hello Sailor
May 3, 2006

we're all mad here


I've been trying to find decent information on how long they expect local aquifer systems to be able to keep up with demand, but not having much luck. Just a news article from a few weeks ago where a consulting group determined the capacity was at least 150 million L/day. That would be about 50% more than the metro area needs if they're rationing at 25 L/capita-day.

Fasdar
Sep 1, 2001

Everybody loves dancing!

Hello Sailor posted:

I've been trying to find decent information on how long they expect local aquifer systems to be able to keep up with demand, but not having much luck. Just a news article from a few weeks ago where a consulting group determined the capacity was at least 150 million L/day. That would be about 50% more than the metro area needs if they're rationing at 25 L/capita-day.

Their aquifers are generally pretty shallow, and get a lot of recharge, but the greater capetown area's groundwater is highly vulnerable due to easy permeability of contaminants through the area's sandy soils and high risk of contamination due to lots of development. I couldn't find anything about total available groundwater in the area, though.

Edit: read a little more. Their aquifers are all relatively shallow (not sure if alluvial or what) and have been managed for controlled recharge in the past. It seems like a lot of the infrastructure has been left to go to poo poo, however.

Fasdar fucked around with this message at 07:46 on Jan 31, 2018

Cybernetic Vermin
Apr 18, 2005

Hello Sailor posted:

I've been trying to find decent information on how long they expect local aquifer systems to be able to keep up with demand, but not having much luck. Just a news article from a few weeks ago where a consulting group determined the capacity was at least 150 million L/day. That would be about 50% more than the metro area needs if they're rationing at 25 L/capita-day.

Sort of the wrong question either way, if this is really the new normal the aquifers could be large and the city would still be doomed, but they are most likely large enough to cover up need for a few bad years, and it still seems likely that addition of dams to handle a more temperamental weather, and wide deployment of grey-water systems, will be a working longer-term solution. On the other side, if day zero happens there really seems to be very little chance that the 25 liters per person and day can actually be organized, whether or not one has the water for it (if nothing else the hit to the local economy as most businesses can no longer operate will start a bad spiral). Something will have to give in that scenario.

Luckily the restriction compliance numbers, and as such the dam level changes, were a lot better last week, likely precisely because these things are getting a much fairer look in the media and public discourse. They are still projecting day zero for April 16th, but I think they are now on the pessimistic side with the window of use considered, as taking last weeks dam level change and just projecting forward I get May 10th. Even that should be pessimistic, since they are now starting to shut off the taps on a lot of agricultural operations. Still far too close for comfort, but we may actually make it if things turn out well.

There are a lot of unknowns and uncertainties though. For example, the issue of the estimated unextractable 10% in dams, that number is almost certainly to some extent plucked out of the air, and if it is closer to 15% things again look very grim, but if it turns out closer to 5% there is actually a bit more room to operate. The biggest dam, Theewaterskloof, is currently sitting at 13.3% (https://resource.capetown.gov.za/documentcentre/Documents/City%20research%20reports%20and%20review/damlevels.pdf), and I will be biting my nails a bit checking next weeks report (they get uploaded to the same place every Monday) to see if they have managed to keep drawing from it at the current pace. They most likely want to keep drawing from the dams with the least remaining water, as it both gives a clearer picture of what can't be extracted, and lowers the total area subject to evaporation.

Cybernetic Vermin fucked around with this message at 10:47 on Jan 31, 2018

Banana Man
Oct 2, 2015

mm time 2 gargle piss and shit
In prehistory climate change news university of Kansas did a study that suggests a comet caused significant changes 12,800 years ago: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.un...firestorms/amp/

It corresponds roughly with the vulture stone pillar at gobleki tepe and the younger dryas period

Banana Man fucked around with this message at 06:14 on Feb 5, 2018

Tree Bucket
Apr 1, 2016

R.I.P.idura leucophrys

Banana Man posted:

In prehistory climate change news university of Kansas did a study that suggests a comet caused significant changes 12,800 years ago: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.un...firestorms/amp/

It corresponds roughly with the vulture stone pillar at gobleki tepe and the younger dryas period

That's incredible! Plus it got me to wik gobleki tepe, which I am currently struggling to slot into my mental timeline-of-world-history...

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
So, did we talk about this EASAC report on negative emissions from last month at all? I don't think anything in here is actually news to anyone paying attention, but it's interesting to see an assessment in one place. Ars has a short piece on it today.

quote:

Things like biofuels and industrial capture plants rely on the existence of underground storage infrastructure, which is also behind schedule. Some projects are already operating, but most are just reinjecting gas into oil fields to keep the crude flowing. It’s not so much that we haven’t figured out how to do things like biofuels. There just isn’t enough of a financial incentive to do them in the absence of significant fees assessed on emissions.

The EASAC report’s conclusions are basically twofold: we have to develop carbon dioxide removal schemes more aggressively, but we also have to cut our emissions enough that we don’t rely on those schemes to save us. “Despite the limitations of [carbon dioxide removal technologies],” the report states, “halting increases in the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere remains a race against time, and humanity will require all possible tools to limit warming to within Paris Agreement targets.”

Nothing too shocking, but it does highlight how unrealistic current carbon budgets are given that we basically don't any market based solution for how large scale negative emissions will actually happen.

Banana Man
Oct 2, 2015

mm time 2 gargle piss and shit

Tree Bucket posted:

That's incredible! Plus it got me to wik gobleki tepe, which I am currently struggling to slot into my mental timeline-of-world-history...

Yeah it's pretty amazing. I've been on a prehistory kick and naturally it's pretty sparse for info, but what is there is fascinating.

BattleMoose
Jun 16, 2010
So I have just had my climate change paper accepted, as a lead author, published in the Journal of Climate, working with 25 global climate change models using CMIP5.

It was on the changing relationship between midlatitude cyclones and precipitation in California, out to 2100. Basically, overall rates of precipitation doesn't change much (uncertainty), storm tracks move poleward and fewer midlaitutde cyclones hit California but those that do bring more precipitation, probably due to increases in humidity. Curiously, changes in midlatitude cyclone intensity (pressure) had no relationships with precipitation. No linky yet.

I also grew up in Cape Town. :(

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Congrats on getting published, feels good.

Gunshow Poophole
Sep 14, 2008

OMBUDSMAN
POSTERS LOCAL 42069




Clapping Larry

BattleMoose posted:

So I have just had my climate change paper accepted, as a lead author, published in the Journal of Climate, working with 25 global climate change models using CMIP5.

It was on the changing relationship between midlatitude cyclones and precipitation in California, out to 2100. Basically, overall rates of precipitation doesn't change much (uncertainty), storm tracks move poleward and fewer midlaitutde cyclones hit California but those that do bring more precipitation, probably due to increases in humidity. Curiously, changes in midlatitude cyclone intensity (pressure) had no relationships with precipitation. No linky yet.

I also grew up in Cape Town. :(

Congrats, keep up the good work.

Slow News Day
Jul 4, 2007

BattleMoose posted:

So I have just had my climate change paper accepted, as a lead author, published in the Journal of Climate, working with 25 global climate change models using CMIP5.

It was on the changing relationship between midlatitude cyclones and precipitation in California, out to 2100. Basically, overall rates of precipitation doesn't change much (uncertainty), storm tracks move poleward and fewer midlaitutde cyclones hit California but those that do bring more precipitation, probably due to increases in humidity. Curiously, changes in midlatitude cyclone intensity (pressure) had no relationships with precipitation. No linky yet.

I also grew up in Cape Town. :(

so when are we all dying

Oxxidation
Jul 22, 2007
e: wrong thread

Stairmaster
Jun 8, 2012

enraged_camel posted:

so when are we all dying

sooner than you'd think later than you'd hope

Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

BattleMoose posted:

So I have just had my climate change paper accepted, as a lead author, published in the Journal of Climate, working with 25 global climate change models using CMIP5.

It was on the changing relationship between midlatitude cyclones and precipitation in California, out to 2100. Basically, overall rates of precipitation doesn't change much (uncertainty), storm tracks move poleward and fewer midlaitutde cyclones hit California but those that do bring more precipitation, probably due to increases in humidity. Curiously, changes in midlatitude cyclone intensity (pressure) had no relationships with precipitation. No linky yet.

I also grew up in Cape Town. :(

Congrats that's awesome :)

Did your paper come to any conclusions about the ridiculously resilient ridge? I naively think it would be a major driver of shifting storm tracks poleward.

BattleMoose
Jun 16, 2010

Notorious R.I.M. posted:

Congrats that's awesome :)

Did your paper come to any conclusions about the ridiculously resilient ridge? I naively think it would be a major driver of shifting storm tracks poleward.

No it didn't, although I did reference Swain more than a little and discussed its role in the recent California drought. My paper had more of a "bigger picture" perspective and we didn't examine the specific synoptics that are correlated to the drought. The ridge of high pressure does push the storm track poleward which is a robust finding from the global climate models.

The ridge in that location isn't a new phenomenon and not sure if it is more resilient today that it was in previous decades. Droughts in California are extremely strongly correlated to a ridge of the cost of Washington and there have been bad Californian droughts before this one.

That being said we do expect the subtropical ridge (of which the RRR is most likely a feature) to move poleward and to shift the storm track poleward (very robust findings from the global climate change models), and areas that are dependent on these storms for water will get less. Think San Diego (and southern California), Perth and Cape Town.

BattleMoose fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Feb 6, 2018

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Here's a fun one: Permafrost soils store nearly twice as much Mercury as all other soils, the ocean, and the atmosphere combined, and this Hg is vulnerable to release as permafrost thaws over the next century.

El Laucha
Oct 9, 2012



Was just coming here to post this.

I hate this timeline.

Trainee PornStar
Jul 20, 2006

I'm just an inbetweener

El Laucha posted:

Was just coming here to post this.

I hate this timeline.

Assuming you were talking to someone who skimmed the article & even then thought 'crap'

In layman's terms, how bad is this?

Forever_Peace
May 7, 2007

Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Shoe do do do do do do do
Shoe do do do do do do yeah
Not clear until they get more data. Sample size is small.

But it's not unlikely that, for this and many other reasons, you'll want to enjoy sushi while it lasts.

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Notorious R.I.M.
Jan 27, 2004

up to my ass in alligators

Trainee PornStar posted:

Assuming you were talking to someone who skimmed the article & even then thought 'crap'

In layman's terms, how bad is this?

My understanding is that there are two major effects from it.

1: Thawed permafrost soil will not be arable without extensive treatment. It's not the case that as more southern regions become more arid, more northerly regions become more hospitable. I really don't know much about the effects of mercury in soil and to what degree we can mitigate, and I would love to hear from someone that knows more.
2: Soil runoff into the ocean will lead to biomagnification of mercury in the aquatic food chain, e.g. the fish you eat will contain significantly more mercury.

Overall this is very much not a good thing. This is a pretty new sector of studies though so we'll need to see what further research comes out.

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