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Funding and federalization would be my bet. The only way the war-economy ends is by all actors getting a slice of the American money rain.
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Feb 10, 2018 23:17
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In response to losing its jet, Israel struck back 12 times, some Syrian, and some Iranian targets, according to Haartez. I think I read separately 4 Iranian targets were hit, leaving the other 8 as Syrian. Israel is making a big show of looking strong after losing its jet: quote:Brig. Gen. Tomer Bar, second in command of Israel's Air Force, said Saturday that the Israeli strike in Syria Saturday morning – after an Israeli F-16 was shot down – was "the biggest and most significant attack the air force has conducted against Syrian air defenses" since the 1982 Lebanon War. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israeli-air-force-general-syria-strike-most-substantial-since-1982-1.5806840 Its a big deal though. Israel has for years conducted airstrikes in Syria with complete impunity, and nothing but empty words in response from Assad. Well, turns out Syrian AA defense can take down an Israeli aircraft after all. Russia issued a statement urging Syria's territory be respected (ha!). quote:"We urge all sides to exercise restraint and to avoid any actions that could lead to an even greater complication of the situation," the ministry said in a statement. "It is necessary to unconditionally respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Syria and other countries in the region." https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/iran-hezbollah-warn-israel-next-strike-will-carry-heavy-price-1.5806692 Iran denies it was flying any drones over Israel, saying its drones were being used against IS, and it only provides "advice" to Syria.
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Feb 11, 2018 01:02
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Minor aside, apropos of the Afghan Air Force getting vaguely up to snuff. Back in the mid-2000s there was an article about how the US was re-organizing a new Iraqi Air Force, and given that in that phase we didn't need them getting into nation-on-nation shenanigans (or being any danger whatsoever to the US) so the focus was giving them "counter insurgency aircraft". Basically small and slow propeller airplanes that can linger over a surveillance area for hours before they run out of fuel, are slow enough you can get a good view of the ground below, and take a minimal amount of maintenance and expense. They interviewed a former Baathist Iraqi AF pilot, who'd been re-recruited to the new air force and retrained by the US, and asked him if it was good to be back and flying again. He replied "I used to fly a MIG, now I fly a Cessna, so guess how I feel?"
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Feb 11, 2018 03:43
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MiddleOne posted:Funding and federalization would be my bet. The only way the war-economy ends is by all actors getting a slice of the American money rain. That's a gimmee. If the Taliban would just take a bribe it would so easy. However If the U.S. and Afghan governments are serious about negotiations, and from all the noise they're making I have no reason to doubt they are, they're going to have to offer power as well as money. Of course this is all theoretical as it doesn't seem the Taliban are much interested in a settlement atm. After all, why compromise if you think you are going to win?
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Feb 11, 2018 04:59
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Has the Assad government or the SDF issued any statements on that big Deir Ez Zor clash so far?
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Feb 11, 2018 15:29
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Count Roland posted:In response to losing its jet, Israel struck back 12 times, some Syrian, and some Iranian targets, according to Haartez. I think I read separately 4 Iranian targets were hit, leaving the other 8 as Syrian. I mean I doubt anyone thought this was some impossible thing, just very unlikely given the precautions taken. But even events with low probability become inevitable if repeated enough times. Eventually a pilot makes a really dumb decision, or a lucky hit gets through, or the plane just plain fucks up, or...
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Feb 11, 2018 17:15
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tsa posted:I mean I doubt anyone thought this was some impossible thing, just very unlikely given the precautions taken. But even events with low probability become inevitable if repeated enough times. Eventually a pilot makes a really dumb decision, or a lucky hit gets through, or the plane just plain fucks up, or... You're right, but I do wonder if there's other factors involved. The war in Syria is winding down. The situation is different than it has been for years. Some ideas: - Syria is more confident, more willing to take shots at Israel. Perhaps it has more manpower and money these days to use for AA stuff. - Syria has gotten assistance with its AA systems, from Russia, Iran or elsewhere. - Something changed in Israel's behavior. Israel has probably conducted over 100 airstrikes in Syria, apparently they're usually going after arms transfers involving Hezbollah. Those were intelligence operations, something Israel knows about before hand and plans for. The mission where they lost the jet however, it was apparently more reactive. Iranian drone flew into Israeli airspace, and Israel sent a jet to blow up the truck that was controlling it. Perhaps Israel didn't have time to take the precautions it normally does. Or maybe (and this is a stretch) Syria knew about the drone operation, anticipated a response, and prepared accordingly. Or yeah, it was just luck.
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Feb 11, 2018 19:03
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SDF claims the destruction of a Turkish outpost, including a contingent of tanks and a munitions depot. https://twitter.com/ICafrinresist/status/962762127533633536 Russian trained and equipped "ISIS hunter" units in the Deir Ez Zor region have sworn revenge on the Kurds for the casualties inflicted in the US air strike: https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/962704158922067969 steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Feb 11, 2018 |
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Feb 11, 2018 20:45
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Imagine launching an opportunistic surprise attack on a faction you're ostensibly neutral with. Imagine losing so badly in the ensuing battle that you then try to save face by claiming that actually you are just incredibly stupid and thought they were a completely different faction that holds no territory in the immediate area while simultaneously swearing revenge on the people you just tried to attack.
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Feb 11, 2018 21:31
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lol Russian PMC got killed. Cool. Reminder that groups like Wagner Group are allowed to exist thanks in part to the normalization of Darkman Fanpage fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Feb 11, 2018 |
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Feb 11, 2018 21:46
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Count Roland posted:You're right, but I do wonder if there's other factors involved. Why do you say that it's a stretch to think this was an intentional trap by Syria?
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Feb 11, 2018 21:51
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So uh. . . you guys know that ISIS patch in southern Idlib? So a few days ago there were reports IS fighters were trying to escape into HTS territory. Yeah looks like they didn't make. A pro-SAA account released footage of ~30 guys describes as IS fighters all dead and laid out in a field. Doesn't look like the result of a mass execution as some of the bodies show signs they were burned as if in a vehicle hit by an explosive. They were probably killed separately and then collected in one spot for some reason. Not going to link video as its pretty grisly but I'm sure anyone interested can find it.
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Feb 11, 2018 22:15
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https://twitter.com/KreaseChan/status/962372994185269249
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Feb 11, 2018 22:34
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Helsing posted:Why do you say that it's a stretch to think this was an intentional trap by Syria? Because its more complicated. We've seen Syria fail at level 1 tactics and strategy in this war. How many offensives did they launch, only to time and time again over reach and allow themselves to be cutoff and surrounded. They've demonstrated really low levels of training and discipline against ragged militias. And why would Syria even want to trap Israel? Israel is an enemy Syria seriously does not need right now. I could see it if the IRGC game Syria a heads-up about this drone operation. Though that might be dumb too, Israel probably has spies or bugs riddled through the SAA right now. Basically I'd prefer to assume incompetence instead of super-competence, since the former is way more common.
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Feb 12, 2018 05:06
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I'm curious if anyone finds this claim remotely believable https://twitter.com/mollymhunter/status/962974769153916930
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Feb 12, 2018 10:24
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I look forward to more Israeli jets being shotdown by these supposedly destroyed air defenses in the future.
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Feb 12, 2018 13:56
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I'm not a fan Turkey under Erdogan in general, or of the Olive Branch operation specifically, but this is quality trolling. https://twitter.com/DailySabah/status/963048025554915329
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Feb 12, 2018 15:37
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Sinteres posted:I'm not a fan Turkey under Erdogan in general, or of the Olive Branch operation specifically, but this is quality trolling. Not really, it’s a lame copycat of the US trolling Russia by renaming the street the Russian embassy in DC is on. If they’d thought of it first it’d be kind of clever but as is it just seems dumb. Also in like two years no one will remember the relevance of olive branch and they’ll think it was named that for positive peace-building reasons.
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Feb 12, 2018 16:28
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Damage to the bigger S-200 installations should be verifiable from timely satellite images.
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Feb 12, 2018 16:43
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Squalid posted:
Over the years its been all of the above, but considering the Taliban is increasing their hold on Afghanistan by like 10% every year and is close to or already has achieved dominance in the majority of the country, their philosophy from what I understand (and very similar to the North Vietnamese earlier) is to wait out the efforts by the international coalition.
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Feb 12, 2018 17:09
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Saladman posted:Not really, it’s a lame copycat of the US trolling Russia by renaming the street the Russian embassy in DC is on. If they’d thought of it first it’d be kind of clever but as is it just seems dumb. Also in like two years no one will remember the relevance of olive branch and they’ll think it was named that for positive peace-building reasons. It’s all lame copying of Iran changing the British embassy to Bobby Sands Street.
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Feb 12, 2018 17:22
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Sinteres posted:I'm not a fan Turkey under Erdogan in general, or of the Olive Branch operation specifically, but this is quality trolling. lol, mayor Tuna
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Feb 12, 2018 17:34
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coathat posted:It’s all lame copying of Iran changing the British embassy to Bobby Sands Street. Ha, I didn't know about that one. So snidely renaming the streets of embassies has been going on for 30 years now? I wonder if someone's made a list of those. Probably.
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Feb 12, 2018 17:51
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Saladman posted:Ha, I didn't know about that one. So snidely renaming the streets of embassies has been going on for 30 years now? I wonder if someone's made a list of those. Probably. Iran named the street KSA's embassy used to be on after Sheikh Nimr, the Shia cleric who was executed by KSA. That's the only one I can think of off the top of my head.
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Feb 12, 2018 19:22
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coathat posted:It’s all lame copying of Iran changing the British embassy to Bobby Sands Street. Which they renamed from Winston Churchill Street, by the way.
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Feb 12, 2018 19:36
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Second verse, same as the first: https://twitter.com/ahval_en/status/963108009785397248 quote:#Breaking: https://twitter.com/WashingtonPoint/status/963109151575552002 quote:Trump adm announced its decision to arm Syrian Kurdish forces in 2017 just before top Turkish officials (Akar, Kalin, Fidan) came to DC to convince US not to. In other news, there's still stuff going on with that tiny ISIS pocket near Abu Kamal: https://twitter.com/AlSuraEnglish/status/963028730540158978 quote:#BREAKING - 11 #Syrian Democratic Forces (#SDF) were saved today by the #Iraqi #PMU near the Iraqi-Syrian border after skirmishes with #ISIS in #Syria led to the SDF fighters retreating towards #Iraq. Iraqi forces fought back the ISIS units and are caring for SDF fighters. Raqqa's not in good shape, but there is some reconstruction going on: https://twitter.com/ERT_Raqqa/status/961583239306665989 quote:Removal rubble and open roads http://al-mojmaa.st Raqqa city RT also did some interviews with people in Raqqa: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBHQA3VAyJ8 It's RT, but the video is almost entirely about the people who have come back to Raqqa and what they're dealing with.
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Feb 12, 2018 23:43
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Saladin Rising posted:Second verse, same as the first: WTF, that's a defense budget of a small nation, with tanks and jets and poo poo. I assume 90% of that is allocated to be grift for American "consultants".
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Feb 12, 2018 23:47
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steinrokkan posted:WTF, that's a defense budget of a small nation, with tanks and jets and poo poo. I assume 90% of that is allocated to be grift for American "consultants". Guns will quite literally rain over Syria.
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Feb 13, 2018 00:07
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Orange Devil posted:Which they renamed from Winston Churchill Street, by the way.
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Feb 13, 2018 00:56
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Flayer posted:Which was a weird one since under Churchill's leadership Britain invaded and occupied Iran during WW2. When the push comes to shove, I'm sure the royal family prefers British control over Soviet one.
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Feb 13, 2018 00:59
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steinrokkan posted:WTF, that's a defense budget of a small nation, with tanks and jets and poo poo. I assume 90% of that is allocated to be grift for American "consultants". This is for making sure our little North Syria fiefdom is armed to the teeth against the many enemies around them as we stay around there for the indefinite future. Hey that's what happens when the US president doesn't know poo poo and he hands foreign policy over to the military, you get a military-minded solution.
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Feb 13, 2018 02:44
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https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/241835 lol, Does Israel really want to lose another war with Hezbollah like 2006? How badly they were defeated then; have they learned nothing?
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Feb 13, 2018 02:58
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It's worth pointing out that while the US still seems to be defending the YPG against Turkey in the north, it's Arab members of the SDF the US has fought for most recently, and who hold the oil fields. From a cynical perspective, maintaining control over that part of the country would seem to be far more important to the US than staying friendly with the socialist Kurds who are driving a massive wedge between us and a treaty ally. The problem is that if we actually did abandon the YPG, we'd be stuck openly just occupying oil fields instead of a multi-ethnic coalition which could serve as a hypothetical basis for replacing Assad in the long term.Pelosi de Bundi posted:https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/241835 It was only a loss for Israel a relative sense; Hezbollah won a moral victory, but it's not like they actually kicked Israel's rear end and wiped them off the battlefield. Israel still has a huge advantage in any conflict, it's just a question of how much political will and international acquiesence they have to absolutely devastate Lebanon in the process, and if it's worth the rocket barrages (and yes, some IDF casualties) now to "mow the grass" and try to at least degrade Hezbollah's capabilities again temporarily instead of waiting for war later at a time of Hezbollah's choosing. Obviously the question of why Israel exists in such a state of hostility with its neighbors is a different question, but with the security situation as is, fighting a war while Hezbollah is battle weary (albeit also battle hardened) isn't the dumbest idea in the world, especially a US president so reflexively pro-Israeli that he recognized Jerusalem. The biggest risk Israel really faces in a conflict with Hezbollah isn't losing so much as failing to take advantage of the opportunity if they do attack and reducing their mystique when it comes to military effectiveness even further. Yeah, the political situation in Syria now means Iran might try to move against them in the case of a conflict now, but it's taken for granted that some kind of showdown is coming eventually anyway, and with Trump in office and the US already actively engaged in Syria, it wouldn't be a huge stretch for the US to disrupt Iranian efforts to reinforce Hezbollah. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Feb 13, 2018 |
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Feb 13, 2018 02:58
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Speaking of Israel and Hezbollah (and their various allies of course), does anyone have particular sources of info they go to for this? Or maybe recent books or documentaries? After someone here asked for it, I dug up a US military report on the 2006 war which was very interesting to re-read. I've also got a book on Hezbollah but its a bit thin on specifics and anyway is a decade out of date. War between the two was always inevitable, but after that jet got shot down it could happen at practically any moment. I'd love to get more informed before it does.
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Feb 13, 2018 03:27
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Pelosi de Bundi posted:https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/241835 Well, the 2014 fighting was very one sided in Israel's favor. They apparently learned quite a bit in 2006 with regards to dealing with ATGMs and such.
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Feb 13, 2018 03:52
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Warbadger posted:Well, the 2014 fighting was very one sided in Israel's favor. They apparently learned quite a bit in 2006 with regards to dealing with ATGMs and such. Palestenians under seige in a flat open air prison like gaza surrounded by two hostile regimes with no reliable sources of training or funding is not the same thing as Hezbollah in Lebanon. There was a study put out by the RAND group in america that charted the trend that americas principal rivals were very close to diminishing americas commad over the air, if at any point Israel loses command of the air, they're loving useless because that's literally the only thing they've ever had over their enemies, free highest-tech aircraft. I lean towards this being a lucky shot, but if Iran/Hezbollah manage to severely limit israels commad of the sky they've won more than half the battle. in 2006 when Israel couldnt reliably attack hezbollah from the sky they failed to even reach many of their land-based objectives. But to be honest, I honestly think this was a lucky shot, there's no evidence right now that they can reliably stop the IAF, because they wouldve done so sooner. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 04:24 on Feb 13, 2018 |
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Feb 13, 2018 04:12
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Warbadger posted:Well, the 2014 fighting was very one sided in Israel's favor. They apparently learned quite a bit in 2006 with regards to dealing with ATGMs and such. Israel vs Palestinians is always one sided. Hezbollah isn't a rabble, its an organized army that makes long term plans and displays competence, or at least it did in 2006. One of the narratives from that war was that Israel got lazy with decades of mowing the lawn in Palestine. Their troops were used to shooting rock-throwing kids; when faced with ambushes and men who used modern infantry tactics they didn't know what the gently caress to do about it. Though Israel was badly humiliated in 2006, I'm sure they took that lesson to heart and changed how they do things.
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Feb 13, 2018 04:31
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Count Roland posted:
I dunno, they've had another 12 years of doing nothing but internal repression since then: plenty of time to get complacent again. Anybody know anything about Israel's current military planning re: Lebanon? Would they be dong things differently, or just '2006 all over again, except this time we make sure not to lose'?
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Feb 13, 2018 07:27
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How political are the YPG really? Like I kind of assumed that they just paid lip service to socialism/Ocalanism but that realistically it was a broad assortment of people of different ideologies united temporarily under the banner of making an autonomous province in Syria, and that the minute they actually succeed they’ll divide in intercine conflicts like the Kurds of Iraq. The socialist bit just seems to be propaganda for Assadist right wing Americans to froth about and left wing internet commentators to drool over. I mean I don’t hear about anything remotely in the terms of political policy in Qamishli or Kobani or wherever. It seems like it’s the typical Arab government of a state of varying levels of repressiveness and most things being free enterprised and untaxed because who is going to report taxes accurately.
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Feb 13, 2018 08:55
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the relative gender equality compared to neighboring regions makes me think it's for real, at the very least. i don't know anything about their economic or political structures, but seeing women-led teams blow up tanks is pretty convincing
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Feb 13, 2018 09:22
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