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Pochoclo
Feb 4, 2008

No...
Clapping Larry
At this point I don't think anyone in the world except a handful of crazies really believes in bitcoin itself - notice all the optimism from "hardcore coiners" is really about bitcoin's USD value climbing and not about bitcoin actually becoming the new revolution in money or whatever. At this point they probably just spout that crap on reddit because they think more people believing it is good for the price.

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Gumbel2Gumbel
Apr 28, 2010

I'm assuming they had a "if you plug a USB drive into these computers you will be fired policy".

I remember reading that dropping USB drives into a parking lot is shockingly effective for accessing computer networks, according to people who test security for a living.

Comfy Fleece Sweater
Apr 2, 2013

You see, but you do not observe.

The only thing which can come in the way of mass cryptocurrency adoption are governments, but only some governments.

Following countries are completely open and have embraced crypto with regulation in place:

Japan
South Korea
Russia
USA
UK
Australia
Switzerland

Some of the most powerful nations right there in the list.

There will be a gradual shift to cryptocurrencies as this is just the beginning and people have only minutely started to realize the life altering potential these have.

i can not for certain comment on if they would replace traditional fiat currencies, however there is a high chance of them coexisting for a long term. At least cryptocoins serve a purpose both as a store of value as well as a payment system. Come join us blockchain pioneers on this journey.

null
Feb 19, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Fun Shoe
Imagine instead of going to jail for orchestrating the ~2009 recession or whatever, you go to prison for bitcoin fraud. This might actually happen to people in the next decade or so :lol::lol:

Minimalist Program
Aug 14, 2010
Nobody has ever gone to jail for being involved, in any way, shape or form, with my freaking rear end. And you can take that to the bank!!

Risc1911
Mar 1, 2016

This latest coin – “Auscoin” – would see management reap an eye-watering $80 million from everyday Australian investors based on some astonishing claims, which 60 Minutes reveals are simply not true.

8.40 tonight on Channel 9, 60 Minutes will take you inside the Auscoin scheme and reveal the dark side of the Bitcoin boom.

Can't wait to watch this.

zedprime
Jun 9, 2007

yospos

jonathan posted:

Pretty sure uranium isn't the guy to be jumping on. He's admitted to not believing in bitcoin's future and has been doing short term trading. He's just applied some higher-than-lowest-denominator Reddit logic to trading and risk management. Kinda feel he's being dogpiled on when he's one of the more rational posters in this thread. Second only to the butt guy.
His optimism that he will have a seat when the music stops is different but analogous to the optimism of bag hodlers in a ponzi.

Secondarily day traders are easy targets for a forum of left leaners because the sort of arbitrage they profit from is a symptom of the weirder parts of free markets and often represents taking advantage of the ignorant and the best explanation even the free market fanatics can come up with "well its profitable so it must be helping the market correct I guess"

Gumbel2Gumbel posted:

I'm assuming they had a "if you plug a USB drive into these computers you will be fired policy".

I remember reading that dropping USB drives into a parking lot is shockingly effective for accessing computer networks, according to people who test security for a living.
Yeah if you sharpie 'payroll' or 'promotions' or something similarly HR related and leave it in a parking lot that poo poo is getting plugged in immediately.

Devian666
Aug 20, 2008

Take some advice Chris.

Fun Shoe
If you want to find out what happened to the Bitconeeeeect guy?

Apparently people have been yelling Bitconeeect at him in a taxi, and have been calling his accountant shouting it as well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeSKGnO0R_Q

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Minimalist Program posted:

Nobody has ever gone to jail for being involved, in any way, shape or form, with my freaking rear end. And you can take that to the bank!!

How do I order the prospectus on your rear end?

Minimalist Program
Aug 14, 2010

jonathan posted:

the butt guy.

yo

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

zedprime posted:

His optimism that he will have a seat when the music stops is different but analogous to the optimism of bag hodlers in a ponzi.

Secondarily day traders are easy targets for a forum of left leaners because the sort of arbitrage they profit from is a symptom of the weirder parts of free markets and often represents taking advantage of the ignorant and the best explanation even the free market fanatics can come up with "well its profitable so it must be helping the market correct I guess"
it's completely unproductive to society and the fact that it's possible is stupid. i'm left-leaning too and i feel some cognitive dissonance about what i'm doing, but i'm going to keep doing it.

QuarkJets
Sep 8, 2008

jonathan posted:

Pretty sure uranium isn't the guy to be jumping on. He's admitted to not believing in bitcoin's future and has been doing short term trading. He's just applied some higher-than-lowest-denominator Reddit logic to trading and risk management. Kinda feel he's being dogpiled on when he's one of the more rational posters in this thread. Second only to the butt guy.

Pretty sure only 2 or 3 people were even in that dogpile and one didn't even know how exchanges work

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

VictorianQueerLit posted:

It's not a system it's just setting up a stop loss so you can't lose too much then waiting for price spikes, which with cryptos happens every minute or so due to them being extremely volatile.

This works because Cryptos don't have the large High Frequency Trading bots like the real stock market and it isn't widespread due to the amount of time and effort involved.

that's about 2/3 correct yeah

'good' TA beyond a certain point also involves shorting (which you can do at 1x leverage to avoid margin trading if that's not your thing) but I think Americans are banned from all leverage trades on every exchange so that isn't a practical option for him right now? I might be wrong about that last part, advanced trading has never been enough of a concern for me to worry about it.

zedprime posted:

His optimism that he will have a seat when the music stops is different but analogous to the optimism of bag hodlers in a ponzi.

if he's being good about his bankroll management, he's already bought his ticket. the kinds of gains being generated are so large that -any- reasonable profit taking strategy better than "when crypto replaces fiat" is working.

anyone who understands that this is a bubble is trading knowing that they're losing the bulk of the last $X they have in. that's sort of the price of admission. but as long as a large % of the money you've earned goes into your bank account and doesn't touch crypto ever again at any price, losing that $X in unrealized paper gains makes no real difference*.

*unless you are the special kind of snowflake that likes to trade across tax years without knowing or caring about the consequences, which is admittedly a common crypto thing

quote:

Secondarily day traders are easy targets for a forum of left leaners because the sort of arbitrage they profit from is a symptom of the weirder parts of free markets and often represents taking advantage of the ignorant and the best explanation even the free market fanatics can come up with "well its profitable so it must be helping the market correct I guess"

sure; I've never engaged with the people who think {regulated gambling/day trading/misc money-pushing around things} are an rear end in a top hat thing to do because we live in different universes, but if they practice what they preach in other areas I don't really have a problem with that worldview as a whole. you guys do you.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Uranium 235 posted:

it's completely unproductive to society and the fact that it's possible is stupid. i'm left-leaning too and i feel some cognitive dissonance about what i'm doing, but i'm going to keep doing it.

personally the fact that the money is currently coming from -> we're competing against a lot of very HNW types, Wall Street, etc. and have already won feelsgoodman and I'm gonna spike that football every way possible while it lasts

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Adar posted:

personally the fact that the money is currently coming from -> we're competing against a lot of very HNW types, Wall Street, etc. and have already won feelsgoodman and I'm gonna spike that football every way possible while it lasts

You keep repeating this horseshit. There's no proof of this, seems highly unlikely.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Fame Douglas posted:

You keep repeating this horseshit. There's no proof of this, seems highly unlikely.

Nor am I going to post any on dying comedy forums. If you're convinced it's grandma's money being deposited $1000 at a time, OK.

Minimalist Program posted:

Nobody has ever gone to jail for being involved, in any way, shape or form, with my freaking rear end. And you can take that to the bank!!

offering to pay you money for your rear end may be a federal crime though tbqh

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Adar posted:

Nor am I going to post any on dying comedy forums. If you're convinced it's grandma's money being deposited $1000 at a time, OK.

"I'm talking out of my rear end"

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Fame Douglas posted:

"I'm talking out of my rear end"

OK

VictorianQueerLit
Aug 25, 2017
I see rumors everywhere about hedge funds and big bankrolls now getting into cryptos but I've never actually seen any proof.

The only thing I've ever seen about it is this
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-21/goldman-is-said-to-be-building-a-cryptocurrency-trading-desk

Where Goldman Sachs decides they want to possibly look at getting involved with digital currencies sometime around June of this year.

abigserve
Sep 13, 2009

this is a better avatar than what I had before
Just to put it out there but uranium was an outlet for my frustration at the fact that bitcoin exists at all

I used to think I had a good handle on how the stock market, and economy in general, works but bitcoin just shits on what I thought I knew

Risc1911
Mar 1, 2016

Coinbase give my money back: Exact amount: $11,537.22 ( $11,562.22 - $25.00 banking fee) Case ID: 3704543


Case ID: 3704543 This is now the second month since this transfer was expected to be done. The bank confirmed that my wire information is accurate, but they cannot locate the transaction. I opened cases, called your support but false responses. To this date you guys still have my money held hostage and you are not paying any interest on it. Give my money back !!

Exact amount: $11,537.22 ( $11,562.22 - $25.00 banking fee) from USD Wallet Exact date: On January 9, 2018 at 09:37am EST ($11,537.22 will arrive in your bank account by January 12, 2018.) Reference: 3CY0OJQN Withdrawal reference: T29WK9GP

I am not sure what else I need to do to get my money from you guys.


https://www.reddit.com/r/CoinBase/comments/7y9tda/coinbase_give_my_money_back_exact_amount_1153722/

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

abigserve posted:

Just to put it out there but uranium was an outlet for my frustration at the fact that bitcoin exists at all

I used to think I had a good handle on how the stock market, and economy in general, works but bitcoin just shits on what I thought I knew

I'm up 2000%, and the only people losing money with Bitcoin are institutional investors from far-away places.

Fame Douglas fucked around with this message at 23:58 on Feb 17, 2018

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Risc1911 posted:

Coinbase give my money back: Exact amount: $11,537.22 ( $11,562.22 - $25.00 banking fee) Case ID: 3704543


Case ID: 3704543 This is now the second month since this transfer was expected to be done. The bank confirmed that my wire information is accurate, but they cannot locate the transaction. I opened cases, called your support but false responses. To this date you guys still have my money held hostage and you are not paying any interest on it. Give my money back !!

Exact amount: $11,537.22 ( $11,562.22 - $25.00 banking fee) from USD Wallet Exact date: On January 9, 2018 at 09:37am EST ($11,537.22 will arrive in your bank account by January 12, 2018.) Reference: 3CY0OJQN Withdrawal reference: T29WK9GP

I am not sure what else I need to do to get my money from you guys.


https://www.reddit.com/r/CoinBase/comments/7y9tda/coinbase_give_my_money_back_exact_amount_1153722/

Ahh, I feel so fresh reading that.

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

abigserve posted:

Just to put it out there but uranium was an outlet for my frustration at the fact that bitcoin exists at all

I used to think I had a good handle on how the stock market, and economy in general, works but bitcoin just shits on what I thought I knew

yeah basically everyone who thought that a large amount of humans could not be dumb enough to fall for an internet meme was so tremendously wrong that the meme actually made it across the finish line to self sustaining and welp

Fame Douglas
Nov 20, 2013

by Fluffdaddy

Adar posted:

yeah basically everyone who thought that a large amount of humans could not be dumb enough to fall for an internet meme was so tremendously wrong that the meme actually made it across the finish line to self sustaining and welp

Thank god only institutional investors from Asia are losing money. It's great for humanity!

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

Adar posted:

that's about 2/3 correct yeah

'good' TA beyond a certain point also involves shorting (which you can do at 1x leverage to avoid margin trading if that's not your thing) but I think Americans are banned from all leverage trades on every exchange so that isn't a practical option for him right now? I might be wrong about that last part, advanced trading has never been enough of a concern for me to worry about it.
that's correct, there's no legitimate way for an american to short crypto, at least not for residents of my state. every exchange that allows shorting has given me an error when i try to sign up saying that they can't provide service to customers from my region. i'd have to use a vpn and violate an exchange's TOS to be able to short, and violating TOS is how people get locked out of their accounts

i know people who take the chance and use a vpn so they can use bitfinex to short, and i guess if you get away with it long enough it could be worth it. not for me though

Uranium 235 fucked around with this message at 00:03 on Feb 18, 2018

Wassbix
May 24, 2006
Thanks guy!

QuarkJets posted:

Pretty sure only 2 or 3 people were even in that dogpile and one didn't even know how exchanges work

On the flip-side we had 3 wolves of crypto type so far

One was a pedo broke brain

One has zero experience in stock markets but is convinced he has a TA system that works

One just talks about big money coming in and how he is in on da secret but not gonna share it

Its hard not to take shot at the above, in a thread focused on taking shots at stupid poo poo

klafbang
Nov 18, 2009
Clapping Larry

Uranium 235 posted:

that's correct, there's no legitimate way for an american to short crypto, at least not for residents of my state. every exchange that allows shorting has given me an error when i try to sign up saying that they can't provide service to customers from my region. i'd have to use a vpn and violate an exchange's TOS to be able to short, and violating TOS is how people get locked out of their accounts

In a sense, you do short them when you go cash. You sell the butts at, say, 10000 and buy them back at 8000. You have 2000 more in money and the same amount of butts. You just don't loan butts/money to do it.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

I am sympathetic to the idea that you can play market "poker" with a bunch of people much more delusional about the value of the commodity than you are and come out ahead on average.

I'm not sympathetic to calling any of these speculative bets "low risk".

comedyblissoption fucked around with this message at 00:42 on Feb 18, 2018

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Uranium 235 posted:

i believe that a few may be, and that in the future there will be useful applications, but right now the market is fueled by euphoric speculation.
Can you name one that has a single practical possible use that isn't illegal activity that isn't already supplanted by a superior tool?

Wassbix
May 24, 2006
Thanks guy!

abigserve posted:

Just to put it out there but uranium was an outlet for my frustration at the fact that bitcoin exists at all

I used to think I had a good handle on how the stock market, and economy in general, works but bitcoin just shits on what I thought I knew

Don't think too hard on it.

It's an asset class that has zero barrier to entry and require zero understanding of finances. Hell you don't even need capital cause idiot are putting it on their credit cards (shoutout to Zuarg).

Beyond that it has nothing interesting going for it. If your risk tolerance is so high that you're willing to touch crypto you could easily find financial products/methods to invest in that offer similar returns without dealing with the fraud/scams. But that would actually requires knowing what you're doing.

For example take the last 5 years in crypto and compare to returns in something like commercial RE it's not even close.

VictorianQueerLit
Aug 25, 2017
Lol I can't remember who made the joke the other day but guess what



Literal tontine coin

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

comedyblissoption posted:

I am sympathetic to the idea that you can play market "poker" with a bunch of people much more delusional about the value of the commodity than you are.

I'm not sympathetic to calling any of these speculative bets "low risk".

The people calling it "low risk" or even "medium risk" do not exist ITT.

Wassbix posted:

Don't think too hard on it.

It's an asset class that has zero barrier to entry and require zero understanding of finances. Hell you don't even need capital cause idiot are putting it on their credit cards (shoutout to Zuarg).

Beyond that it has nothing interesting going for it. If your risk tolerance is so high that you're willing to touch crypto you could easily find financial products/methods to invest in that offer similar returns without dealing with the fraud/scams. But that would actually requires knowing what you're doing.

For example take the last 5 years in crypto and compare to returns in something like commercial RE it's not even close.

What do you think the return is on commercial RE over the past 5 years?

Wassbix
May 24, 2006
Thanks guy!

Adar posted:

What do you think the return is on commercial RE over the past 5 years?

It's telling you think returns are limited to 5 year price graphs lol

wolves of crypto folks

ynohtna
Feb 16, 2007

backwoods compatible
Illegal Hen

VictorianQueerLit posted:

Lol I can't remember who made the joke the other day but guess what



Literal tontine coin

Holy poo poo: "Live long & prosper."

And I'd love to see the methodologies these ICO rating agencies use to determine their scores.

comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Adar posted:

The people calling it "low risk" or even "medium risk" do not exist ITT.

Uranium 235 posted:

contrary to what you say, i've never claimed that i can "accurately predict the market" and in fact have said that it isn't possible to predict the market. the best that can be done is to find low-risk trading setups and to play the odds. it's risky and it's speculative but if you are picky with your entries and you are disciplined in your risk management then it is possible to make a profit

Uranium 235 posted:

i've said the opposite--that no one can predict the market. the best that can be done is to see what the market has done in the past and make guesses about what is more likely to happen in the future. i'm always prepared to be wrong which is why i only make entries when i believe the risk to reward is low. i cut losing trades quickly and let winning trades run longer. this is why i compare it to poker--the key to being successful is managing risk and only playing when you believe the odds are favorable
Uranium is pushing the idea he can make low risk profits with his TA system. He acknowledges that the entire ecosystem will crash, but he also believes he'll be able to see the signs so that not only will he not be holding the bag, he's going to profit off the bagholders as it's crashing. I'll grant that there's a possibility he still comes out ahead in that situation, but there's also a large possibility he just becomes another bagholder. You're still a bagholder even if you were smart enough to get your profits out to be net profitable before everything crashes around you if you have a significant position.

Edit: Also before someone twists my words, I acknowledge he is saying it is low risk in the sense of a +EV play in Poker risk. Not that there's a low percent chance to lose your bet. This is still like claiming you have a low risk system to beat the market.

comedyblissoption fucked around with this message at 00:57 on Feb 18, 2018

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

Wassbix posted:

It's telling you think returns are limited to 5 year price graphs lol

wolves of crypto folks

...yes that's what I said and is not the timeframe you came up with (but you can use -any- 5 year timeframe in the history of commercial RE if you'd like)

between this and risc1911 explaining no one can make a profit on exchanges this thread has gotten really good in the past few hours but not exactly for the right reasons

Adar
Jul 27, 2001

comedyblissoption posted:

Uranium is pushing the idea he can make low risk profits with his TA system. He acknowledges that the entire ecosystem will crash, but he also believes he'll be able to see the signs so that not only will he not be holding the bag, he's going to profit off the bagholders as it's crashing. I'll grant that there's a possibility he still comes out ahead in that situation, but there's also a large possibility he just becomes another bagholder.

you're right, even in the context he's using it that's too optimistic. when the crash comes the odds of it wiping out everyone equally are very high

quote:

You're still a bagholder even if you were smart enough to get your profits out to be net profitable before everything crashes around you if you have a significant position.

disagree with this though; to put this in another context, what you're saying here is that a mining company that mines out the entire vein of gold it sits on is holding a bag because it has a bunch of empty tunnels and depreciated construction equipment left over. if that's the definition of holding bags I'll do it proudly but I don't think you want to go that far

Uranium 235
Oct 12, 2004

comedyblissoption posted:

I am sympathetic to the idea that you can play market "poker" with a bunch of people much more delusional about the value of the commodity than you are and come out ahead on average.

I'm not sympathetic to calling any of these speculative bets "low risk".
the risk is relative. trading something much less volatile without margin will obviously be lower risk than trading crypto

i can't remember for sure but i probably have said "low risk"--what i mean is "low risk to reward." the amount i'm risking (willing to lose) on a trade is significantly lower than what i expect to gain if the trade goes the way that i'm speculating it will. if i'm wrong then i sell for a small loss, if i'm right then i sell a partial position to take profit and let the rest ride longer. as the price rises, i sell more and more of my remaining position

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comedyblissoption
Mar 15, 2006

Adar posted:

you're right, even in the context he's using it that's too optimistic. when the crash comes the odds of it wiping out everyone equally are very high


disagree with this though; to put this in another context, what you're saying here is that a mining company that mines out the entire vein of gold it sits on is holding a bag because it has a bunch of empty tunnels and depreciated construction equipment left over. if that's the definition of holding bags I'll do it proudly but I don't think you want to go that far
Uh lets say someone has $100,000 and turns it into $300,000 on crypto trading. Let's say they cash out $150,000 and they trade some more on the remaining $150,000. It's irrelevant how big they got that $150,000. Maybe they ballooned it enormously or whatever. Then, at the end the market crashes and they only claw back like $10,000 of it while its crashing. They're still a large bag-holder.

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