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This is ironic, but I can see the reasoning behind it. Russia wants to pull Turkey away from the US (even more than has already happened), and so Russia coming to an agreement with Turkey while Turkey still has troops in Syria as part of Euphrates Shield/Olive Branch is no skin of Putin's nose, since Putin cares about the port in Tartus rather than what force controls certain parts of Syria's territory. From Assad and the SAA's point of view, the wheeling and dealing of Russia and Turkey has resulted in anti-Assad rebels controlling a chunk of north Syria, and a general attitude of "gently caress Turkey, they sponsored rebels for years and they're still doing it, and they even hampered our attack on Idlib thanks to that Turkish convoy". So from the SAA's perspective, the YPG fighting the Turkish-backed rebels is a good thing, since it's a fight the SAA can't be a part of right now thanks to the above geo-political wheeling and dealing.
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Feb 20, 2018 02:11
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It's funny if this actually leads to the Kurds and the Assad regime reaching an understanding about the post-war political arrangements.
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Feb 20, 2018 07:54
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Somehow I doubt it. If Erdogan's wet dream of claiming all Kurdish border territory came true, it'd obviously be impossible since that's basically his dictatorial political platform now, but Assad's dictatorial platform has been one of uncompromising brutality which he won't ever give up until someone forces him to do so. See Ghouta right now if you doubt as to how unwilling he is to stop being a brutal tyrant. For the Kurds' sake I sincerely hope they have something planned for what happens when that brutality serves its short term purpose of warding off the Turks, because if not they are just as likely to suffer under him. CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 08:43 on Feb 20, 2018 |
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Feb 20, 2018 08:36
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I think that prior to the SCW, Assad had already given some minor concessions to the Kurdish minority so the relationship between Assad and the Kurds hasn't been one of open hostility, which has probably influenced the SCW to a significant degree. When it comes to SDF and Assad, I don't think he has a military option at all and it's not like the Russians would back his campaign just because.
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Feb 20, 2018 09:30
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Kemper Boyd posted:I think that prior to the SCW, Assad had already given some minor concessions to the Kurdish minority so the relationship between Assad and the Kurds hasn't been one of open hostility, which has probably influenced the SCW to a significant degree. When it comes to SDF and Assad, I don't think he has a military option at all and it's not like the Russians would back his campaign just because. He said they could borrow his jet ski, but when they came to get it, it was in the shop. Google the Qamishli riots.
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Feb 20, 2018 09:39
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Isn't the Syrian government still paying the wages of the public servants in SDF territory? And isn't the stated goal of the SDF to enter into a federal government as an autonomous zone? I think you guys are really over thinking it.
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Feb 20, 2018 09:47
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https://twitter.com/AFP/status/965878269252898816?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1 War is definitely winding down, nothing to see here.
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Feb 20, 2018 10:23
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I just spent the morning looking for videos from Ghouta from yesterday, here's a playlist of them if anyone wants to watch them all. Couple of kids getting pulled out of the same collapsed building in these ones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8c3e3Yn2Yo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2EvTE5LrI4
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Feb 20, 2018 12:14
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Isn't the Syrian government still paying the wages of the public servants in SDF territory? And isn't the stated goal of the SDF to enter into a federal government as an autonomous zone? I think you guys are really over thinking it. The Assad government doesn't want autonomous zones. They want unconditional compliance. Making this happen through force will not negatively impact Assad or his circle.
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Feb 20, 2018 14:11
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/AFP/status/965878269252898816?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1 They're capturing territory a lot faster now too, so while that timeline might be a little optimistic, it isn't quite as insane as it would have sounded a week ago. The YPG's strategy of actively trying to stall advances at the border has presumably been pretty costly, and maybe made sense if they thought they were just stalling for time for the regime to come save their core territory, but might not look too great in hindsight if that never materializes. To be fair, they presumably would prefer to avoid the civilian toll of pursuing the ISIS strategy of fighting/getting trapped in the cities and watching the side with air power bomb the gently caress out of those cities in the process. I have to say I didn't see Putin essentially telling Assad Afrin isn't part of his country anymore coming. It kind of undermines the message that the US needs to get out when Turkey gets to gobble up territory it isn't likely to hand back at will. If they find out there really is no help for a negotiated end to the fighting at all, I can't help thinking the YPG would be better off withdrawing their fighters to Rojava than fighting a battle they can't win against Turkey. Obviously the PKK has a long history of fighting a war they can't win against Turkey, so Turkey isn't likely to get every last one of them or anything, but as a fighting force they're wasting a lot of lives right now if there's no help coming. Edit: I guess some Assad friendly militias just entered Afrin? https://twitter.com/SyriaWar2/status/965943437752176641 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 14:57 on Feb 20, 2018 |
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Feb 20, 2018 14:36
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Warbadger posted:The Assad government doesn't want autonomous zones. They want unconditional compliance. Making this happen through force will not negatively impact Assad or his circle. Assad's people are war weary too. If an option arises to end the war via an agreement with the Kurds, it's not impossible that he can declare victory and bring them back in via an autonomous zone. "For their heroic fight against the ISIS rebels in the name of Assad" Forever war is really rare and it's one thing to get his troops to keep fighting the rebels and ISIS. It's another thing to then wheel them around and make them fight the Kurds who have not been killing their friends. There is a reason that failed assault on the SDF had a poo poo on of mercs in it.
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Feb 20, 2018 15:04
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WoodrowSkillson posted:Assad's people are war weary too. If an option arises to end the war via an agreement with the Kurds, it's not impossible that he can declare victory and bring them back in via an autonomous zone. "For their heroic fight against the ISIS rebels in the name of Assad" I think he would love to put on a show that makes people think this is what is happening. They've poisoned the well a bit by making a bunch of YPG are terrorists statements over the years, but who's going to argue? 
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Feb 20, 2018 15:07
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Sinteres posted:
Looks like it. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/965943861876011008 couple of hundred fighters maybe. Equipment is mostly technicals, a pair of bmps, a tank, and what looks to be a Shilka.
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Feb 20, 2018 15:09
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Unless they have anti-air weaponry and/or some sort of expectation that the airspace over Afrin is about to become unavailable to Turkey, they're about as doomed as those Russian mercenaries east of the Euphrates if they actually intend to fight on the front.
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Feb 20, 2018 15:15
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https://twitter.com/BarzanSadiq/status/965940834431578113 I wonder if he actually means the front lines or ( whats left of ) the actual border with Turkey. Because if he does mean the border that would be a pretty good way to throw them in the trash.
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Feb 20, 2018 15:24
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Turkey's already bombing near the area where the militias entered Afrin. Edit: https://twitter.com/bdrhmnhrk/status/965960883980685312 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Feb 20, 2018 |
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Feb 20, 2018 15:47
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Volkerball posted:I think he would love to put on a show that makes people think this is what is happening. They've poisoned the well a bit by making a bunch of YPG are terrorists statements over the years, but who's going to argue? And if the Kurdish and Assad's forces in a joint effort push back Turkey troops out of Syria it would be pretty easy to change the narrative on that anyway. Helped defend the nation against outside forces is a pretty good excuse for giving a PR get out of jail free/lets be freind's card. If Assad genuinely wants it happen it really does seem like it would be easy enough to sell. Just let's hope he does.
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Feb 20, 2018 15:48
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dr_rat posted:And if the Kurdish and Assad's forces in a joint effort push back Turkey troops out of Syria it would be pretty easy to change the narrative on that anyway. It's all down to what Russia and Iran are willing to support. No matter what propaganda gets released, they understand the dynamics of the war. It is not certain at all that Iran or Russia will but blood and treasure on the line to go to war against the SDF. Assad himself likely would want the entire country reunified, but he has one hell of a war weary population and army, and a full defeat of the rebels and ISIS is still a bit off. By the time that is done, there is no evidence that the Russians or Iran would then lend men to die retaking Kobani. If Assad gets to keep power and what, 80%(?) of his country, and gives the remainder to an autonomous zone that is nominally under his control, its possible he ends it there.
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Feb 20, 2018 15:56
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Russia and Iran have both sent dozens of their own militiamen to die fighting the sdf within the last year. Oilfields homie.
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Feb 20, 2018 16:01
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/965963798359265280?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1
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Feb 20, 2018 16:06
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I wonder if Iran will start shelling the Turkish observation posts in Idlib again now.
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Feb 20, 2018 16:07
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Well, all those articles claiming "syria is getting better" will be our "peace in our time."
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Feb 20, 2018 16:08
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I'm not sure the militiamen were quite ready for the fight they had gotten themselves into. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/965965485622923265
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Feb 20, 2018 16:25
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Ikasuhito posted:I'm not sure the militiamen were quite ready for the fight they had gotten themselves into. I don't know why they weren't expecting that response. Turkey's been intermittently threatening to attack the US if they stick with the YPG, and threatened to attack regime forces if they entered Afrin, but these guys thought they'd be able to play little green men for some reason. The rapid response here compared to the relative laxity Turkey's shown at the point of entry when the YPG has moved troops into Afrin from elsewhere suggests to me they've wanted the YPG to continue moving forces into the region.
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Feb 20, 2018 16:32
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Alright so let me get this straight.. The YPG a US backed force, is now going to be fighting longside a russian backed government force in the north of syria... while the US and a anti-government force kills russian trained ( by this i mean former russian soldiers similar to US PMCS Hiring former DSes and MOS trainers for 200k a year to train their units) PMCs in the south. So russia and the us are now fighting proxy NATO while killing each other 500miles away. This may be one of the most complex conflicts ever to affect planet earth ... wow i really never thought constantinople would be in our grasp in 2018
WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 23:23 on Feb 20, 2018 |
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Feb 20, 2018 23:19
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LeoMarr posted:Alright so let me get this straight.. The YPG a US backed force, is now going to be fighting longside a russian backed government force in the north of syria... while the US and a anti-government force kills russian trained ( by this i mean former russian soldiers similar to US PMCS Hiring former DSes and MOS trainers for 200k a year to train their units) PMCs in the south. So russia and the us are now fighting proxy NATO while killing each other 500miles away. This may be one of the most complex conflicts ever to affect planet earth ... wow i really never thought constantinople would be in our grasp in 2018 Realpolitik is insanity.
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Feb 20, 2018 23:46
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I would point out it was Russia who attacked the SDF/US positions in deir ezzor and it's Russia who sponsored this deal with the YPG now. There's your schizophrenia.
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Feb 20, 2018 23:54
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Volkerball posted:I would point out it was Russia who attacked the SDF/US positions in deir ezzor and it's Russia who sponsored this deal with the YPG now. There's your schizophrenia. Is there a deal in place? I thought the deal between the SAA and YPG was torpedoed by Russia because it breached some promise they made to Turkey
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Feb 21, 2018 00:06
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Flavahbeast posted:Is there a deal in place? I thought the deal between the SAA and YPG was torpedoed by Russia because it breached some promise they made to Turkey This deal sending NDF units to Afrin
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Feb 21, 2018 00:09
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Volkerball posted:I would point out it was Russia who attacked the SDF/US positions in deir ezzor and it's Russia who sponsored this deal with the YPG now. There's your schizophrenia. I haven't seen any indication that Russia's sponsoring the deal--isn't the NDF more Iran's thing? The Russians are the ones who gave Turkey a green light to attack Afrin in the first place by pulling out, which even the Coalition responded to by saying Russia were the ones who betrayed the YPG, not us (which arguably did Russia's job for them in pointing out to Erdogan who his new best bud is).
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Feb 21, 2018 01:01
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The US never gave a gently caress about Afrin, and the NDF are mostly Assad and Iran backed not Russian.
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Feb 21, 2018 03:25
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Sinteres posted:I haven't seen any indication that Russia's sponsoring the deal--isn't the NDF more Iran's thing? The Russians are the ones who gave Turkey a green light to attack Afrin in the first place by pulling out, which even the Coalition responded to by saying Russia were the ones who betrayed the YPG, not us (which arguably did Russia's job for them in pointing out to Erdogan who his new best bud is). Interesting. Digging into it, it looks like they just signed off on it. That's an outlier. Usually Russia is the middleman. Regime talking points on the subject are about what you would expect. https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/966094493207298048?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1
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Feb 21, 2018 03:51
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Is Partisangirl, like, a person posting this delusional poo poo on their own free time or from a troll farm. I could understand the latter, since it's easily becoming the way of modern political discourse on the internet, but the only way the former would be in any way sane is if they were some close relations of Assads' or such.
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Feb 21, 2018 04:49
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Volkerball posted:Interesting. Digging into it, it looks like they just signed off on it. That's an outlier. Usually Russia is the middleman.
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Feb 21, 2018 04:54
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CrazyLoon posted:Is Partisangirl, like, a person posting this delusional poo poo on their own free time or from a troll farm. I could understand the latter, since it's easily becoming the way of modern political discourse on the internet, but the only way the former would be in any way sane is if they were some close relations of Assads' or such. Think of her as an alt-right/infowars media personality like Mike Cernovich, except her primary interest is Syria and shilling for Assad. She has had opinions on gamergate and a whole slew of conspiracy theories, so there's more overlap with the alt-right than you'd think.
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Feb 21, 2018 05:17
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Saladin Rising posted:Yeah, this looks to be a legitimate break in strategy between Russia and Assad/Iran. It was bound to happen sooner or later, and that kind of break is exactly what the US wants to see more of. Russia's not the only who likes seeing friction between ostensibly allied countries. Ultimately Turkey has more leverage with regard to Syria than the Russians have on Turkey. The constant resupply of both the Russians in Syria and the Assad government both come through the Bosphorus. Were the Russians to try and create a no fly zone, the Turks could counter-escalate by denying supply, but not to the point of shooting. That would probably cause more problems than it’s worth for the Russians. That’s said, any odds on East Ghouta holding out, figuratively? The Assad government has consistently failed against this core territory, and while I’m sure it helps not having just the 4th division die needlessly, I don’t know if what they have will be enough unless they are prepared to abandon Daraa. I just don’t feel like it will end up like Aleppo for some reason. Edit: Additionally this is why Idlib is essentially untouchable now that Turkey has deployed forces there. Russia won’t help now. I feel like they would assist against Rebel offensives but I doubt they are willing to provoke Turkey when they have such leverage. Coldwar timewarp fucked around with this message at 05:33 on Feb 21, 2018 |
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Feb 21, 2018 05:31
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Coldwar timewarp posted:The constant resupply of both the Russians in Syria and the Assad government both come through the Bosphorus. Were the Russians to try and create a no fly zone, the Turks could counter-escalate by denying supply, but not to the point of shooting. Passage through the Bosphorus is guaranteed by the Montreaux treaty, though. Turkey would have to either break the treaty or withdraw from it to stop Russian military movement.
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Feb 21, 2018 06:46
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Kemper Boyd posted:Passage through the Bosphorus is guaranteed by the Montreaux treaty, though. Turkey would have to either break the treaty or withdraw from it to stop Russian military movement. Why wouldn’t they? When has a treaty stopped anyone from doing what they want? It certainly doesn’t stop them from threatening closure either way, and they aren’t the isolated Turkey of 1936, they have allies willing to look the other way when they back loving ISIS.
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Feb 21, 2018 07:01
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Kemper Boyd posted:Passage through the Bosphorus is guaranteed by the Montreaux treaty, though. Turkey would have to either break the treaty or withdraw from it to stop Russian military movement. The treaty explicitly authorizes Turkey to close the straits to any countries they wish in time of war or when they feel threatened. If Turkey wanted to seriously crack down on Russian use they're entitled to do so, it'd be easy enough to find a pretext given the present situation. No breaking the treaty needed, no withdrawal needed. Separate from all that it'd probably be a bad idea, but that's not what the treaty was about.
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Feb 21, 2018 07:03
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