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Unormal posted:Plenty of non human animals are conscious including magpies. I looked it up just now and magpies breath oxygen. Dolphins too.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:14
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froglet posted:The thought of everyone suffocating in an anoxic hellplane by the end of the century is genuinely frightening to me. I don't think we're going to be dying from anoxic oceans spitting H2S into the atmosphere before 2100. We may be able to lock us into an actually unavoidable crash course for it by 2100, but the raw chemical reactions to render that newly stable environment are still going to take hundreds to thousands of years. The main driver for this is the distribution of pH content throughout the ocean, and this reaction only happens so fast. This also means that what we do now matters because if we don't curb emissions and land use by 2100 we will get an actual mass extinction. I think sometimes we talk too fatalistically so we don't really consider what a mass extinction is like. A mass extinction is a rapid loss of the food web rippling from shell-builders in the ocean dying. Then it's the larger and larger sections of oceans turning purple from sulfur bacteria taking the ocean back to a proteobacteria-only regime. Then it's the death of most terrestrial life due to atmospheric hydrogen sulfide reaching fatal levels. This is much different than the problems we see from now to 2100 which mostly revolve around drought, floods, wildfire, famine, and extreme weather.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:18
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Here's a good overview of the end-Permian extinction, which is a very good analogue of what we are doing to the environment now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HtHlsUDVVy0&t=1s We can make it much less bad than that, and we can make it much more bad than that. Finding excuses to call it quits just makes things worse.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:24
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ChairMaster posted:That's true, but if there's no conscious life around to observe it then does it really count? Who cares, I guess. There's a pretty good chance conscious life will arise again. And if you're gonna have this kind of mindset then it already doesn't matter since the universe is doomed to entropy anyway
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Feb 20, 2018 05:27
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Grouchio posted:I refuse to believe that there is no chance that humanity will be able to adapt in differing degrees to climate change or develop new technologies that could aid or alleviate the worst impacts of climate change this century. We must have faith in our scientists to succeed in this endeavor, and have faith that their methods can catch on and make a difference. I think it's extremely naive to say "leave it to scientists" here. Adaptation is much more than a purely scientific endeavor.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:27
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:I think it's extremely naive to say "leave it to scientists" here. Adaptation is much more than a purely scientific endeavor. Also cosmic nihilism isn't a good perspective to have when so many great and interesting things happen on one little planet every day. It's all about perspective. Grouchio fucked around with this message at 05:34 on Feb 20, 2018 |
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Feb 20, 2018 05:31
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Since a guy is talking about killing himself over this stuff someone needs to repeat that no one reading this thread is really actually likely to die of climate change. It's real and bad and is going to be the largest single thing that kills the most people and the stuff it means for the next generations is really scary, and saying this is going to be taken by some people as downplaying things but like, if anyone here is actually corporeal scared for their actual body and life they are probably being hyperbolic. Like, people are going to die, it's very bad. But like, you personally are going to die in 2067 from a regular old heart attack most likely, even if it's in a world that is starting to get real bad off in a lot of places and really starting to take a toll on vulnerable people and more and more on random people via natural disaster. Like, seriously, the people talking about everyone dying next week or whatever are just jerking off to their depressed death fantasy. Like the future past that, past 2100 and past that get way more iffy on more and more sadsack predictions being actually real, and some really grim things are absolutely going to happen during your life time but like, you personally aren't actually going to die from this and shouldn't kill yourself over that sort of worry.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:32
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Notorious R.I.M. posted:Finding excuses to call it quits just makes things worse. I think that's it. Everyone I've spoken to is like "planet fukt, do nothing, play video games" and I guess a failing of my personality is that I can't just switch off and disengage like them. Seems like my option are kill self or living in the denial of optimism that maybe things will get better.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:35
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froglet posted:I think that's it. Everyone I've spoken to is like "planet fukt, do nothing, play video games" and I guess a failing of my personality is that I can't just switch off and disengage like them. For me it's more that I'd like to do my part to help make sure we end up on the bad-but-not-a-mass-extinction part of the outcome distribution rather than the one where we speedrun the end-Permian and do the great oxygenation event in reverse.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:37
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Grouchio posted:You are correct but if I were to recommend one group of figures to rest your hopes for the future on, I'd say it's them. Yea, I do have perspective. Human perspective. I've come to terms with the fact that I am going to die, along with every other human. We didn't get to be gods, so what? We had a good run. I can live a satisfied and happy existence without knowing everything that happens in the universe, the stuff that I do get to know is pretty cool as it is. Owlofcreamcheese posted:Since a guy is talking about killing himself over this stuff someone needs to repeat that no one reading this thread is really actually likely to die of climate change. I don't think anyone other than AceofFlames is particularly stressed about that, though 2067 seems like a pretty generous estimate. froglet posted:Seems like my option are kill self or living in the denial of optimism that maybe things will get better. It's up to you, dude. If you can convince yourself that there's a point in fighting, then go ahead and fight. Try to find peace in that. If you can't convince yourself that there's a point, you'll always be free to join us in the acceptance camp.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:42
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ChairMaster posted:If you can't convince yourself that there's a point, you'll always be free to join us in the acceptance camp. Can the nihilist camp at least leave out some bird food and grow a few plants or something? Or do they just sit and navelgaze all day? Nature isn't a switch you flip and then things go kaboom. Either go read actual literature on climate change, seek therapy, or do both.
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Feb 20, 2018 05:53
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Here's a bit of good, potentially really good news for down the line:quote:The younger Musk is the co-founder of Square Roots, an urban farming incubator with the goal of teaching young people how to farm in cities while preaching the importance of locally sourced, non-processed food.
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Feb 20, 2018 06:00
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Nobody in camp nihilist thinks that i's physically impossible to make a difference, just that the sacrifices it would require cannot be made by human society in the amount of time it would take to really matter. I mean if you can figure out how to proclaim someone god-emperor who gives a poo poo about the environment and can make everyone on the planet do what they say then go ahead and get that started, but in the mean time I'm watching the world turn fairly quickly to fascism, anti-intellectualism, and the overall general failure of democracy to solve problems in a world where certain powerful groups of people have honed their ability to manipulate populations until the end of forever.
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Feb 20, 2018 06:07
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ChairMaster posted:Nobody in camp nihilist thinks that i's physically impossible to make a difference, just that the sacrifices it would require cannot be made by human society in the amount of time it would take to really matter. So no planting flowers, just navelgazing, got it.
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Feb 20, 2018 06:13
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Why plant flowers when you can just buy them and have them delivered in like a day? The nihilists not planting flowers is pretty far from the problem here, for every one of us there's a hundred thousand people just trying to get by. People who couldn't make even the token difference that you pretend like planting flowers makes. For every one of us there's another hundred thousand who think it's still a problem for someone to solve a hundred years from now, or who think it's a hoax, or overblown nonsense, or will only affect far away brown people. Even your disdain can be more productively directed elsewhere.
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Feb 20, 2018 06:27
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I should not read this thread before bed because the last batch of new posts gave me a hell of an ongoing panic attack at 12:30 in the drat morning  I know the reality of what we've done, but even regular death is freaking me out right now
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Feb 20, 2018 06:39
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The Snoo posted:I should not read this thread before bed because the last batch of new posts gave me a hell of an ongoing panic attack at 12:30 in the drat morning Dude, you're gonna be fine. The future does not yet exist, and it's not gonna catch up with you or anyone else in this thread for a good while. Anxiety is not your friend, and it's not productive, you should try to learn to dismiss it if you can.
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Feb 20, 2018 06:46
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I'm very unlikely to die from climate change, but I'd be lying if I denied being at risk of climate change-related civil unrest and extreme weather events... and that risk is 10x worse for my family and extended family. Not trying to fear monger but saying nobody here will die from climate change is actually a very narrow, dishonest view. Barring war, the average Joes in Canada, Japan, Oceania, Europe, they are going to be mostly fine, but in the rest of the world including the United States of gently caress the Poor, long-term security is greatly reliant on socioeconomic status and geographical area. Like, get out of Florida.
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Feb 20, 2018 07:44
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I didn't say never, I just said he's got a lot of time. Poor people in the US are obviously gonna be hosed over and left to die (though I certainly would not agree that people in other wealthy nations are going to be okay), but it's gonna be a bit before things get bad enough to endanger the posters in this thread. It will probably happen in our lifetime, but why ruin your life with anxiety over something you've got 20 years to prepare for?
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Feb 20, 2018 07:59
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That's generous but your point stands. Everyone go enjoy the next five years.
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Feb 20, 2018 14:30
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I'm basically a broken record on this subject, but if you're a first worlder who's doing at least okay then your most likely pain point is going to be economic. You're probably going to be poorer and less secure in the future, but you aren't going to be scrounging for dog food in a post-apocalyptic hellscape. How bad it actually gets is going to depend a lot on how individual states and municipalities deal with their own local issues and how much internal migration of businesses/workers disrupts everyday life. just lol if you happen to own property in a flood prone area tho
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Feb 20, 2018 16:29
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Paradoxish posted:you aren't going to be scrounging for dog food in a post-apocalyptic hellscape. Yeah, it's lovely when people try to make it their prepper fantasy that is going to wipe away their boring life and take them on a zombie apocalypse adventure. It's such a horrible thing that is happening with climate change but it's just going to hurt people in ways that are mundane and tragic for a long time, not the ways that broke brains try to spin into exciting escapes from their mundane life into fallout new vegas or the sweet embrace of death that will punish all their enemies in exact proportion to their sins. Climate change is real real bad, and a lot of people are going to die, but unless you are really specifically vulnerable the time line just doesn't match up for it to be likely specifically you will specifically die. It'll gently caress over people like you all over the world for centuries and you should have empathy for that. But it's not the rapture that is coming in 6 years to wipe things clean in glorious cleansing fire. It's you hearing on the news a disaster killed 30,000 people in some third world country and you treating it like no big deal when actually even though those people were in a third world country they had been totally fine and hanging on until recently when they weren't.
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Feb 20, 2018 16:42
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Grouchio posted:I refuse to believe that there is no chance that humanity will be able to adapt in differing degrees to climate change or develop new technologies that could aid or alleviate the worst impacts of climate change this century. We must have faith in our scientists to succeed in this endeavor, and have faith that their methods can catch on and make a difference. Scientist are going to get killed by the mob or escape with the billionaire tech lords.
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Feb 20, 2018 16:48
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Yeah, it's lovely when people try to make it their prepper fantasy that is going to wipe away their boring life and take them on a zombie apocalypse adventure. It's such a horrible thing that is happening with climate change but it's just going to hurt people in ways that are mundane and tragic for a long time, not the ways that broke brains try to spin into exciting escapes from their mundane life into fallout new vegas or the sweet embrace of death that will punish all their enemies in exact proportion to their sins. California is the wealthiest and most populated state and they're going to be/are already hosed. Then it's other costal states like Florida. Things aren't going to be rosy in the United States and they aren't going to be rosy anywhere else.
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Feb 20, 2018 16:51
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white sauce posted:California is the wealthiest and most populated state and they're going to be/are already hosed. Then it's other costal states like Florida. Things aren't going to be rosy in the United States and they aren't going to be rosy anywhere else. You also have a finite life span and are not going to live eternal ever after to watch them sink into the ocean. This is absolutely not a proclamation that everything is going to be okay, it's the hard truth that unless you slid out of a womb onto this webpage right this morning the time line of events doesn't really line up to get you a cool seat to watch and it's really your children and their children that are going to face this as corporeal threat to their body instead of economic drag on their lifestyle. Like when you look at 2075 and see the graph of how horrifying it's gonna be, you, specifically, personally are going to have died by then, just anyway. Probably.
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Feb 20, 2018 17:21
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white sauce posted:California is the wealthiest and most populated state and they're going to be/are already hosed. Then it's other costal states like Florida. Things aren't going to be rosy in the United States and they aren't going to be rosy anywhere else. Money is going to migrate north and east. Probably towards the Midwest, but who knows? A lot of wealth is going to be destroyed, but most of it is just going to move once it becomes obvious that we haven't done enough to mitigate the effects on rich coastal areas. So, yeah, you're going to probably live to see some pretty bad recessions and a lot of economists hand wringing over "slow growth." And your good, stable professional career might not be so stable in a decade or two if you live in an area that has the potential to be hosed by a bunch of unlucky weather events or that might be a destination for people migrating away from those areas. Worrying that things are going to deteriorate and start to suck (especially if you aren't rich) is totally reasonable, but it's not reasonable at all to be concerned about a literal apocalypse happening in your lifetime. I feel like most people really hate this answer because the solution is to just live frugally, do all the right things, and try your best to prepare for a kind of uncertain future. It doesn't leave room for total despondence or a flight into hedonism because the world is still going to be here in 40 years. Paradoxish fucked around with this message at 17:39 on Feb 20, 2018 |
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Feb 20, 2018 17:36
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Grouchio posted:Here's a bit of good, potentially really good news for down the line: Hyperefficient farming techniques is something I can get really excited about. It's technically neat and it has the potential to save so much land and energy and water etc.
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Feb 20, 2018 17:37
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:You also have a finite life span and are not going to live eternal ever after to watch them sink into the ocean. lmao It's sadly not a shock that all the people who actually know what the gently caress they are talking about w.r.t c.c. have stopped posting i.t.t.
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Feb 20, 2018 17:49
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That the debate is centered on "assured human extinction and personal death within 40 years" versus "assured human extinction and death for your immediate offspring, in 80 years" should be everything you need for despondency and flights of hedonism.
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Feb 20, 2018 18:18
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:lmao Just stop engaging with him.
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Feb 20, 2018 18:19
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:You also have a finite life span and are not going to live eternal ever after to watch them sink into the ocean. what the gently caress is wrong with your brain  we are watching people die in this country from climate change right now.
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Feb 20, 2018 18:24
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white sauce posted:we are watching people die in this country from climate change right now. Yeah, they are. And it's possible to feel that is important without making it about yourself.
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Feb 20, 2018 18:40
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Feb 20, 2018 18:43
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:lmao sea ice forums
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Feb 20, 2018 18:50
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Owlofcreamcheese posted:Yeah, they are. And it's possible to feel that is important without making it about yourself. 
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Feb 20, 2018 18:51
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"People are dying right now" and "it is unlikely you specifically are going to die from this" are not contradictory. Drug resistant tuberculosis is a real serious problem, it's going to ravage a bunch of poor countries and also kill a ton of people in the first world. But like, you shouldn't hide under your bed that TB monster is specifically going to come to your specific house and that your specific death is actually specifically very likely. It's gonna kill hundreds of thousands of people a year, but like, don't plan your life around your TB funeral, something else is probably gonna get you.
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Feb 20, 2018 19:35
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I'll make the bold prediction here that 2020->2030 and 2030->2040 are gonna be somewhat like 2000->2010 or 1990->2000, i.e., pretty decent all in all. 2040->2100 might be anything from "Immortal Space King Elon Musk gifts everyone moon-mined butt cocaine for Xmas C (we had to add extra Xmasses to consume all of the neat stuff)" to "A bit worse than 2040 because Malthus eventually did catch up with us, somehow". I.e., in the first world, our main worry is still gonna be stupid politicians and what color to buy your iPhone in.
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Feb 20, 2018 19:49
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Cingulate posted:I'll make the bold prediction here that 2020->2030 and 2030->2040 are gonna be somewhat like 2000->2010 or 1990->2000, i.e., pretty decent all in all. 2040->2100 might be anything from "Immortal Space King Elon Musk gifts everyone moon-mined butt cocaine for Xmas C (we had to add extra Xmasses to consume all of the neat stuff)" to "A bit worse than 2040 because Malthus eventually did catch up with us, somehow". I.e., in the first world, our main worry is still gonna be stupid politicians and what color to buy your iPhone in. It could be. There's also the chance that our current society is actually a lot less stable than we take for granted and a lot more susceptible to a cascade failiure such as a the bronze age collapse due to the complexity of our society and our utter dependance on logistics and international trade. We can speculate a lot back either way, but the real answer is that we don't know very much about the future, for better or worse. We do know that we need to address climate change really comprehensively and really soon to give us the best chance of avoiding the slow death of our advanced, golden-age society and/or straight up doomsday.
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Feb 20, 2018 20:01
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I'm firmly in the "and even if not" camp. Running the numbers on coal gives you that it's a mass murderer easily on the scale of an ISIS, or a few, even if you completely ignore climate change (and of course, if you ignore all the good stuff resulting from having the energy available, so this is Coal vs. Nuclear + Renewables). Speaking of crazy Sunnis, I will never understand the enthusiasm with which the American Right shovels their hard-earned Meritocracy Rewards into the hands of the Saudi kings. As a very simple calculation, making low-tech non-human labor (energy) more expensive would make labor more competitive, and create a few high-tech jobs. Also clean energy makes Elon Musk happy, and a happy Elon Musk is a beautiful sight. So even if there was no climate change, etc etc.
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Feb 20, 2018 20:07
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Potato Salad posted:sea ice forums at least the arctic sea ice forums do a good job of putting the guy mcpherson imminent doom idiots in their place. People seem to either drastically overestimate or underestimate climate impacts during the 21st century. On one hand we have idiots saying that literally everyone is going to die either through black magic self-reinforcing thoughts or speeding up the rate of ocean acidification by 100-fold. On the other hand we have people saying that the 2040s will be like the 2010s while neglecting regime changes in atmospheric circulation and the speed at which climate can affect weather.
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Feb 20, 2018 21:07
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