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To clarify by russian sponsored I meab the entirity of the syrian government is sponsored by Russia. So any actions of any group acting on orders from Assad are backed by russia either in directly or dirwctly. NDF defending afrin pro-gov militia with weapons supplied by surpluses generated as a result of russua arming syrian gov regular forces.
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Feb 21, 2018 07:53
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LeoMarr posted:To clarify by russian sponsored I meab the entirity of the syrian government is sponsored by Russia. So any actions of any group acting on orders from Assad are backed by russia either in directly or dirwctly. NDF defending afrin pro-gov militia with weapons supplied by surpluses generated as a result of russua arming syrian gov regular forces. This really discounts how important Iran has been to Syria. The NDF were originally organized by Iran in a Basij-like model. Doesn’t mean direct control, but these forces are certainly operating with regime support and possible Iranian support, against the wishes of the Russians. If what has been leaking out is to be believed. Tacit Russian support for everything the SAA does seems unlikely, they simply don’t have that short a leash on him when he can look to his other ally for support when Russia is withholding theirs.
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Feb 21, 2018 08:13
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Yeah, we've seen indications that the Iran-backed factions do their own thing a lot of the time. Assad needs them and they need him to some extent, but I don't think they and the Russians have the same sort of relationship. Like the Wagner guys in the East, they aren't state actors and can be plausibly disavowed by both Assad and Iran as needed, which frees them to fight Turkey, despite the SAA's unwillingness to get in a shooting war with Ankara (and vice versa) as well as Russia's tacit support for Turkey. It's an incredibly dangerous game, but every state involved in this conflict has their own paramilitary factions playing the same sort of game and sometimes it works. Maybe not this time though. It's entirely possible that what we just saw was the militia testing Turkish resolve (possibly under the assumption that Moscow or Ankara wasn't willing to fire on them) and miscalculated. It's also possible that Assad or even the Iranians sold them out. It'll be interesting to see how they respond. Or this was just a cock-up because people just aren't talking to each other. And the people trying to cut deals aren't on the same page as the people trying to fight wars.
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Feb 21, 2018 12:52
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Ultimately Turkey has more leverage with regard to Syria than the Russians have on Turkey. The constant resupply of both the Russians in Syria and the Assad government both come through the Bosphorus. Were the Russians to try and create a no fly zone, the Turks could counter-escalate by denying supply, but not to the point of shooting. That would probably cause more problems than it’s worth for the Russians. A lot of force is being brought to bear on East Ghouta right now. I don't think the rebels in the pocket can hold against the upcoming push by the SAA. OhFunny fucked around with this message at 23:34 on Feb 21, 2018 |
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Feb 21, 2018 13:05
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Can anyone give a breakdown of the major militias operating in Syria right now? I've fallen behind. Hezbollah: they announced they were going to be pulling back, did this happen? FSA: basically owned by Turkey at this point as far as I can tell HTS: re-branded Nusra. They still a major player? SDF/YPG: clearly very active and important NDF: recently rolling into Afrin, controlled by Iran? And I've probably missed some important ones.
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Feb 21, 2018 13:23
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Count Roland posted:Can anyone give a breakdown of the major militias operating in Syria right now? I've fallen behind. My impression is that Hezbollah has pulled back as the regime and Iranian backed militias have picked up more of the slack, but that they're still around. Tensions with Israel are higher than usual though, so their attention is drifting back home. Some elements that used to identify with the FSA are part of the SDF now, but otherwise yeah they're mostly TFSA now. I think HTS lost a lot of mystique when they didn't fare particularly well against the regime in Idlib recently, and now Ahrar and Zinki have teamed up to fight them, presumably with some level of Turkish support or blessing. Iran definitely oversaw the creation and training of the NDF, with some support from Hezbollah. Right now they seem to be serving as a distancing tool since sending regime forces might cause problems between Russia and Turkey, but Iranian backed militias can plausibly be presented as acting outside of Russia's wishes (and may in fact be, though Lavrav just called for dialogue between the regime and Kurds today, so Russia's position seems pretty ambiguous).
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Feb 21, 2018 15:39
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Lmao https://twitter.com/ErshadAlijani/s...90%7Ctwterm%5E1
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Feb 21, 2018 17:20
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It's super weird seeing him call for free presidential elections.
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Feb 21, 2018 17:27
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He isn't saying it because he wants free and fair elections without guardian council interference, that's for sure. He just wants to be center stage.
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Feb 21, 2018 17:32
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https://twitter.com/RamiJarrah/status/966348578561150977?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1 A number of reports now putting the death toll in Ghouta at nearly 300 since Sunday.
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Feb 21, 2018 18:37
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A couple of articles about Saudi Arabia recognizing that yes, they have been fostering terror left and right. But it's only because Iran exists. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/09/saudi-arabia-terrorism-funding-214241 quote:Under their new and unprecedented policy of honesty, the Saudi leadership also explained to me that their support for extremism was a way of resisting the Soviet Union, often in cooperation with the United States, in places like Afghanistan in the 1980s. In this application too, they argued, it proved successful. Later it was deployed against Iranian-supported Shiite movements in the geopolitical competition between the two countries. quote:There have been many reform programs announced before in Saudi Arabia, only to fade into insignificance. Also, modernization undermines two pillars of Saudi political legitimacy, the endorsement of the Wahhabi clerical establishment and the traditionalism that undergirds any monarchical government. As modernization creates economic uncertainty for those benefiting from the present inefficient order, the result could be political turmoil. And it is an open question as to whether the Saudi people have been sufficiently prepared at all relevant levels in terms of education and skills to compete in the world economy, as they will need to do in a modernized economy. quote:One byproduct of the Saudi focus on ISIL and Iran seems to be a more enlightened view by Riyadh toward Israel. Israel and Saudi Arabia share a similar threat perception regarding Iran and ISIL, and that old hostility need not preclude greater cooperation between the two states going forward. The Saudis stated with unusual directness that they do not regard Israel as an enemy and that the kingdom is making no military contingency plans directed against Israel. They did emphasize the need for progress on the Palestinian issue, but the tone on this subject was noticeably less emotional than in the past. The clear priority was on defeating ISIL and balancing Iran from a position of strength. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/saudi-official-makes-rare-reflection-on-kingdoms-role-in-rise-of-extremism/ quote:“Why was it that this extremism came from your schools and from your mosques?” Smith asks al-Jubeir.
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Feb 21, 2018 19:02
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There's some truth to that framing. The Iranian revolution really did place a lot of pressure on KSA to embrace hard line policies so they didn't cede ground to Iran as the legitimate representation of political Islam in the region. The grand mosque seizure taking place the same year as Iran's revolution probably magnified its impact in terms of frightening Saudi elites and making them think they could be next if they didn't find a way to co-opt the hardliners. There's always been a tension between the idea that the House of Saud is both extremely decadent and the custodian of the two holy mosques, so they tried to buy off anyone who had a problem with that by funding them and directing them elsewhere. The part about the US being on board at various points is accurate too of course.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 19:17 on Feb 21, 2018 |
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Feb 21, 2018 19:13
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If they'd managed to keep the extremists directed away from the West (at Russia maybe? Israel?) they'd probably still be ticking along nicely. No Western government really cares about the suffering of Arabs under fundamentalism governments (as long as the spice...sorry, oil keeps flowing). Its the exportation of terrorism to Western countries that spurred proper Western military, political and covert intervention in the region.
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Feb 21, 2018 21:00
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Blut posted:If they'd managed to keep the extremists directed away from the West (at Russia maybe? Israel?) they'd probably still be ticking along nicely. No Western government really cares about the suffering of Arabs under fundamentalism governments (as long as the spice...sorry, oil keeps flowing). Its the exportation of terrorism to Western countries that spurred proper Western military, political and covert intervention in the region. Iraq hosed everything up by scaring the Saudis more than extremists and getting them to allow US basing on their territory, which led to bin Laden etc.
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Feb 21, 2018 21:12
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Count Roland posted:Can anyone give a breakdown of the major militias operating in Syria right now? I've fallen behind. The Syrian government also doesn't really have direct control over the NDF; the clashes in Qamishli started because of fighting between local YPG forces and local NDF forces, and escalated later once the US and the SAA got involved. Tribal forces in the east are also generally grouped under the NDF banner if they're aligned with the SAA/government and not the SDF. So the NDF that went into Afrin are mostly local fighters from the Nubl/Zahraa area nearby. I mentioned this a little while back, but the Nubl/Zahraa area feels very grateful to the Afrin YPG because the Afrin YPG let food and supplies into Nubl/Zahraa when that area was besieged by the rebels. So now that the Afrin YPG is under attack by Turkish-backed rebels (some of whom are undoubtedly the exact same groups that besieged Nubl/Zahraa earlier in the war), local fighters want to help the Afrin YPG just like the Afrin YPG helped them. The tweet earlier mentioned that part of the force (the vanguard) reached Afrin and the rest of the force pulled back, so at least some of the NDF made it to Afrin. How many people that is and how useful they'll be remains up in the air, but the YPG will obviously take all the help they can get at this point. Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 22:35 on Feb 21, 2018 |
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Feb 21, 2018 22:21
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Sinteres posted:Iraq hosed everything up by scaring the Saudis more than extremists and getting them to allow US basing on their territory, which led to bin Laden etc. Let's blame a poor country run by a dictator. How about instead the West hosed everything up by hypocritically failing to live up to its stated principles of freedom, democracy and human rights in its foreign policy since forever?
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Feb 21, 2018 22:39
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So what, you think we should have invaded Iraq sooner? Maybe invade some other country?
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Feb 21, 2018 22:43
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Orange Devil posted:Let's blame a poor country run by a dictator. To the extent that I care about blame, obviously the blame goes to the now dead dictator, not to the poor people living there. I was really just saying Iraq was the catalyst that destabilized Saudi Arabia's cynical policy (yes, supported by the West at the time) of exporting problems they couldn't control at home though. I don't think you can really downplay Iraq's conquest of Kuwait and threatened invasion of Saudi Arabia too much since it had dramatic consequences which are still unfolding today (even if Saddam obviously lost control of the situation and stopped being the prime actor continuing to propel those consequences a very long time ago).
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Feb 21, 2018 22:49
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Mozi posted:So what, you think we should have invaded Iraq sooner? Maybe invade some other country? "gotta bomb somethin'" --nelson t. muntz, once-and-future president and secstate of the usa
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Feb 21, 2018 23:09
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Mozi posted:So what, you think we should have invaded Iraq sooner? Maybe invade some other country? Your toolbox appears to only contain a hammer.
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Feb 21, 2018 23:18
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Willie Tomg posted:"gotta bomb somethin'" please dont misquote president Muntz
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Feb 21, 2018 23:20
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NDF who made it to Afrin are deployed, and more NDF are going to Afrin as well: https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/966284588749291520 quote:#AfrinOp: pro-Assad forces which entered #Afrin yesterday now reportedly deployed on #Jindires front. Calling themselves "Popular Forces", they came to fight "Ottoman Turkey". https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/966301951804755969 quote:#Pt. Turkey renewing artillery shelling on road linking Nubul-Zahraa with #Afrin. https://twitter.com/sayed_ridha/status/966310913300189185 quote:Second batch of NDF begin entering Afrin region via Ziyarah crossing while Turkish reconnaissance drones fly overhead https://twitter.com/Syria_Hezb_Iran/status/966354968524607488 quote:BREAKING: Second batch of #Syria|n popular forces (#NDF) is entering #Afrin canton through #Ziyarah CP. #ALEPPO https://twitter.com/CivilWarMap/status/966400554925744130 quote:Situation in #Afrin after advances by Turkish-backed rebels today
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Feb 21, 2018 23:22
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Cat Mattress posted:A couple of articles about Saudi Arabia recognizing that yes, they have been fostering terror left and right. But it's only because Iran exists. Wow, that is actually pretty shocking. I don't think I've ever seen a dictatorship which is still in power admit to doing anything wrong or making mistakes, ever, even with all these caveats. I really can't think of another time where 100% of the blame wasn't laid elsewhere. So long as Adel al-Jubeir doesn't end up in a 5* torture cell tomorrow for saying all this stuff on record, at least.
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Feb 21, 2018 23:33
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Saladman posted:Wow, that is actually pretty shocking. I don't think I've ever seen a dictatorship which is still in power admit to doing anything wrong or making mistakes, ever, even with all these caveats. I really can't think of another time where 100% of the blame wasn't laid elsewhere. MBS basically launched a soft coup against his own family, so he's taking the opportunity to blame those other fuckups for everything that's bad while saying he'll do better.
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Feb 21, 2018 23:41
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I like how he admits to helping extremist while also doesnt mention how KSA has completely undermined any hope for peaceful democratic change in arab countries and has ended up making people choose between slavery and destitution or between alqaeda. also, what a loving racist thing to say 'Enlightened view of Israel' what a loving racist, demeaning and wrong word to use, as if accepting racism and apartheid and the wholesale wiping out of an innocent group of people was the 'enlightened' path no it isnt it's reactionary fundamentalist forces working in concert against human rights and freedom and against any progress in the region the way they've been doing for decades, what a goddamn racist that article writer is. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 00:24 on Feb 22, 2018 |
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Feb 22, 2018 00:19
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https://twitter.com/abdullahawez/status/966625879974703104?ref_src=twcamp%5Ecopy%7Ctwsrc%5Eandroid%7Ctwgr%5Ecopy%7Ctwcon%5E7090%7Ctwterm%5E1 Assad portrait in one hand, Ocalan in the other. 
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Feb 22, 2018 12:20
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Looks like Russia is moving in some fancy new hardware: quote:According to Syrian media and observers near Russia’s Khmeimim air force base, the two Su-57s were escorted by four Su-35 fighters and four Su-25 strike aircraft, as well as an A-50U radar command-and-control platform. https://www.perthnow.com.au/technology/innovation/has-moscow-moved-its-su-57-stealth-fighter-into-syria-ng-56cae8a44961133bb58605c43e04038d I doubt the US will be too bothered by this, but I wonder if this is a show of force for Erdogan's benefit.
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Feb 22, 2018 15:16
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Yeah, I thought the SU-57 wasn't really near introduction yet. I guess they might be running with their older engines, even so I thought it was at least a year away. I guess we will see if they actually used or not or PR with some prototypes?
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Feb 22, 2018 16:15
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I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the RUAF was running up against the end of service life on a lot of their platforms in Syria. It's got to be the highest operational tempo they've kept up since the Afghan War and a lot of the stuff is old.
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Feb 22, 2018 17:01
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Rent-A-Cop posted:I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the RUAF was running up against the end of service life on a lot of their platforms in Syria. It's got to be the highest operational tempo they've kept up since the Afghan War and a lot of the stuff is old. The platforms that are getting a work out are usually bombers/CAS/helicopters not really air superiority fighters. At best, I think they are just there as scarecrows.
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Feb 22, 2018 17:20
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BBC posted:Saudi Arabia says it will invest $64bn (£46bn) in developing its entertainment industry over the next decade. Is it stating the obvious that there's going to be blowback to this?
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Feb 22, 2018 17:37
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https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/966718009338400768 Yeah we ain't leaving anytime soon.
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Feb 22, 2018 18:06
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Al-Saqr posted:also, what a loving racist thing to say 'Enlightened view of Israel' what a loving racist, demeaning and wrong word to use, as if accepting racism and apartheid and the wholesale wiping out of an innocent group of people was the 'enlightened' path no it isnt it's reactionary fundamentalist forces working in concert against human rights and freedom and against any progress in the region the way they've been doing for decades, what a goddamn racist that article writer is. I did a double take and found the author. It's Khalilzad who will have a special seat in hell
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Feb 22, 2018 18:34
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Israel Today: "Israelis Establish New 'West Bank' Settlement, Say Trump Will Support Them" Apparently this is the first legit authorized settlement in the West Bank in 25 years. They're constructing a settlement called Amichai (or Amihai in some renderings), to house Israelis Jews booted out of Amona outpost. It's by the settlement of Shiloh, 27km past the 1967 borders. Amona had been illegally built in 1995, well inside the West Bank, and underwent a bunch of legal back and forth. In the course of investigation, it turned out the whole shebang was built on privately-owned Palestinian land using forged deeds. In December 2014 it was ordered to be torn down "within two years" and in January 2017 was forcibly evacuated, with some of the last hardliners conceding when the government promised to build them new houses (also in the West Bank). Between the court ruling and the evacuation, the Knesset got ornery and passed a new authorization for settlements in 2015, and apparently Amichai is the first of them. The coverage in JPost has some pretty blunt interviewees: https://www.jpost.com/Arab-Israeli-Conflict/First-36-homes-go-up-in-new-Amichai-settlement-543239 posted:“After a long battle, we see the light at the end of the tunnel,” said activist Avichai Boaron, an Amona evacuee who led the campaign to save the original community that had been located on a hilltop on the edge of the Ofra settlement.
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Feb 22, 2018 19:48
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I had a random historical question: How close did Saddam come to losing the Iran Iraq war? If the US hadn’t supported him how likely would have been him being overthrown in a sort of exported Iranian revolution, like if Trotsky had won the Polish-Soviet war and drove all the way to Berlin?
icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 20:32 on Feb 22, 2018 |
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Feb 22, 2018 20:27
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icantfindaname posted:I had a random historical question: How close did Saddam come to losing the Iran Iraq war? If the US hadn’t supported him how likely would have been him being overthrown in a sort of exported Iranian revolution, like if Trotsky had won the Polish-Soviet war and drove all the way to Berlin? Personally, I don't think Iran conquering Iraq would have been acceptable to just about anyone (until we were stupid enough to do it for them), so I think some sort of intervention to bail out Iraq would have happened if absolutely necessary, but Iraq was never particularly close to collapse anyway; Iranian successes tended to be met by stiffer resistance from the Iraqis, and Saddam always had his chemical weapons trump card to play against Iranian cities if things got out of control. US support obviously helped, but the Saudis and Soviets helped Saddam too, because pretty much everyone hated Iran. Something interesting I didn't know until today is that Khameini, the current Supreme Leader of Iran, was actually in favor of accepting a cease fire in 1982 when Iraq's early offensives failed, whereas Rafsanjani was a key hawk who wanted to keep fighting until Saddam was overthrown. Obviously the hawks won that argument, since the war continued until 88.
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Feb 22, 2018 20:56
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France also provided a ton of support to Iraq, second only to the Soviets. And apparently the Iraqis much preferred French gear and more substituted more of it in as time went on. Iran was backed by... I guess North Korea? Apparently China and the Soviets discretely slipped them some amounts of gear, but the North Koreans were the main guys supplying them overtly. Which has got to suck because NK vehicles and whatnot weren't the best of quality, plus NK can't help much with sourcing things like parts for all the US-based equipment Iran already had from the Shah days, F14 parts and all.
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Feb 22, 2018 21:10
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I thought the Americans were arming both sides, just way more for Saddam? Figured most countries just wanted to watch Iraq and Iran bleed each other, neither achieving any sort of absolute dominance
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Feb 22, 2018 21:28
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Punkin Spunkin posted:I thought the Americans were arming both sides, just way more for Saddam? Figured most countries just wanted to watch Iraq and Iran bleed each other, neither achieving any sort of absolute dominance We traded Iran arms for hostages, so we did give them some stuff, but not on the same level as Iraq. We were definitely favoring Iraq, and the idea that we just wanted them to bleed each other out is mostly a post-Gulf War invention from what I can tell. I don't mean we would have wanted Iraq to conquer the entirety of Iran (which would have been impossible to absorb anyway), but just that we and pretty much everyone else hated Iran enough that watching their revolution lose credibility from losing a war and territory to Iraq would have been a win from our perspective. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Feb 22, 2018 |
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Feb 22, 2018 21:29
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lol didn't you get the boot because you were rigging elections too mu- El Disco posted:It's super weird seeing him call for free presidential elections. Volkerball posted:He isn't saying it because he wants free and fair elections without guardian council interference, that's for sure. He just wants to be center stage. ehh, the guardian council / supreme leader / security apparatus don't like him very much these days
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