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It's not like there aren't legit criticisms you can make of Jackson. He has fairly crappy mechanics, especially when he's throwing on the run, that lead to issues with accuracy he'll need to clean up, and he can run himself into sacks at times. But people like Polian talk about him like he's Pat White or something
MourningView fucked around with this message at 01:33 on Feb 23, 2018 |
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Feb 23, 2018 01:27
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So here's the thing. NFL scouting is not actually a crap shoot, in fact when you go by the numbers NFL teams are fairly effective at drafting. HOWEVER, there are a ton of frauds, no-nothings and has-beens out there who are either trying to make a quick buck or are just complete morons. Josh Allen as the number one QB is simply absurd to anyone who follows these things, and that will not happen. The consensus seems to be Rose, then Darnold at a close second, Mayfield after that, then Jackson and Allen bringing up the rear depending on what a certain team is looking for. If Allen can show ability to learn there will be teams who want to develop him; Jackson is innately better and he could be great, but he might not fit directly into some offenses. Mayfield could be very good but honestly the worries about his height are legitimate. Beyond that he has tons of talent. Rosen kind of looks to me like Bradford 2.0. Just like Bradford he is a great pocket passer which is what tons of teams want these days. Bradford's career got derailed by injuries but that's besides the point. Darnold looks like a combination of all these guys. Good pocket passer and apart from that has reasonable skills in pretty much all other qualities that you look for. That one Twitter guy was right in that pretty much the most important part of the combine and pro days are the private workouts and interviews where scouts and coaches can discover what players actually understand about football and how readily and easily they take instruction. And then how they apply that instruction to actual play. Not knowing any of these quarterbacks personally, it's really had to say which ones will do best at that, although at a guess Rosen and Mayfield will probably do well there. This whole Allen thing is ridiculous, there's absolutely no way he's getting taken before Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield. He may very well go after Jackson, personally that seems wise. fsif posted:I hope the Bills make an insane offer to land Rosen. I'd be fine with four firsts. Are you hating on Tyrod right now. Fight me
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Feb 23, 2018 06:33
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Play posted:Are you hating on Tyrod right now. Fight me They tried to start Peterman over him, in a playoff run. I think he realizes Tyrod time has come to an end in Buffalo.
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Feb 23, 2018 07:44
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fsif posted:I hope the Bills make an insane offer to land Rosen. I'd be fine with four firsts. Trade your two picks to the Raiders and draft Mayfield. You can thank me later.
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Feb 23, 2018 12:07
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I love Tyrod but Rosen has HOF upside. A Godfather offer for him is a good move for at least like 20 teams right now. I still think an offense built around Tyrod’s strengths is an exciting and viable one, but obviously Buffalo has no interest in creating it.
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Feb 23, 2018 13:18
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Play posted:Josh Allen as the number one QB is simply absurd to anyone who follows these things, and that will not happen. Counterpoint: https://twitter.com/SportsBoyTony/status/967020664556269569
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Feb 23, 2018 14:39
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The visitor counter is the cherry on top
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Feb 23, 2018 15:51
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Play posted:So here's the thing. NFL scouting is not actually a crap shoot, in fact when you go by the numbers NFL teams are fairly effective at drafting. This is false there's almost no variable in the scouting process found so far that correlates to NFL success besides being drafted high, as in those who are taken in the first two rounds are given more playing time off the bat thus allowing them to generate more stats and cement themselves in starting positions over their later round counterparts. I've been following the draft since 2004 and I love every bit of it but no one's found the model yet. It's a crap shoot.
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Feb 23, 2018 18:20
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2qp94sdrKk tldw: Assuming you have at least three quarterbacks you like enough to draft top 5, take Barkley at #1 and then one of these three at #4. Not sure if I entirely agree with the evaluation, but the logic seems sensible enough at a glance.
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Feb 23, 2018 18:44
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There's a good chance the guy you want won't last until 4, better chance that Barkley will. I just got baited and I don't care. 
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Feb 23, 2018 18:45
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Cash Monet posted:There's a good chance the guy you want won't last until 4, better chance that Barkley will. If you think only one quarterback is worth taking then yeah take him at 1. But if you go "We can work with any of these 2-3 quarterbacks" then I think Barkley's worth taking. Fournette and Elliott ended up carrying Dak and Bort deep into the playoffs.
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Feb 23, 2018 18:50
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Play posted:So here's the thing. NFL scouting is not actually a crap shoot, in fact when you go by the numbers NFL teams are fairly effective at drafting. Thanks for providing all the numbers to back this up.
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Feb 23, 2018 18:55
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Don’t listen to Daltos just do what miami does except the exact opposite. Boom draft success!!
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Feb 23, 2018 18:55
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When you look at the numbers you'll see that when an NFL team drafts a player *BOOM* he's on the roster! Very effective.
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Feb 23, 2018 18:57
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SKULL.GIF posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2qp94sdrKk Trade down from #1, take a QB at #4, use one of the trade down picks for Guice or Michel 
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Feb 23, 2018 18:59
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SKULL.GIF posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2qp94sdrKk Even putting aside that it's an inefficient use of draft capital to take RB's high, Barkley actually seems not great. He gets stuffed behind the line a lot doing dumb poo poo like spin moves. He's still a good back overall, but I'd rank him worse than other top RBs that have come out.
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Feb 23, 2018 19:00
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So, someone tell me about late first round corners just in case.
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Feb 23, 2018 19:16
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im so sick of seeing lamar jackson get drafted that i just want the bears to draft him and have him be the next aaron rodgers
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Feb 23, 2018 19:17
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All these draftniks anointing Saquan Barkley as the #1 prospect in the draft confuses me especially since it contains Rosen, Derwin James, and Quenton Nelson. There's also a host of guys who are super intriguing like Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds, and Connor Jackson that could be taken with the fourth pick. I see no issue with the Browns going Rosen then taking a random guy at 4, or trading back. It would be fun to see Barkley and either Rosen/Jackson/Mayfield tossing him the football though. Real fun.
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Feb 23, 2018 19:21
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SKULL.GIF posted:Elliott ended up carrying Dak ... deep into the playoffs.
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Feb 23, 2018 19:25
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Diva Cupcake posted:He did what now. Oops, I'd forgotten the Cowboys had a first round bye that season.
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Feb 23, 2018 19:28
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Doltos posted:All these draftniks anointing Saquan Barkley as the #1 prospect in the draft confuses me especially since it contains Rosen, Derwin James, and Quenton Nelson. There's also a host of guys who are super intriguing like Roquan Smith, Tremaine Edmunds, and Connor Jackson that could be taken with the fourth pick. I see no issue with the Browns going Rosen then taking a random guy at 4, or trading back. I'm blown away how much Derwin's stock is down right now. Oh well, we both know that'll change at the combine.
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Feb 23, 2018 19:31
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Doltos posted:This is false there's almost no variable in the scouting process found so far that correlates to NFL success besides being drafted high, as in those who are taken in the first two rounds are given more playing time off the bat thus allowing them to generate more stats and cement themselves in starting positions over their later round counterparts. I've seen an analysis posted right in this thread with a number related to the total career value of a player, not just their first season but their first four or five season in the league (if an early round pick sucks they will eventually run out of teams who want to let them play) and the chart showed a relatively steady upward trend when checked against draft choices. A crap shoot implies that if you put the name of every single college player in a hat and drew them at random, you would end up with players that are just as good. That is false. Just because no one has found a perfect model does not mean that evaluating players is pointless or doesn't work. Look at the first chart in this link, which is based on the first FIVE YEARS of a player's career and shows a steady downward slope as the draft rounds move on: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/no-team-can-beat-the-draft/ That article has a lot more interesting information in it too, it's not as totally simply as all that, in fact it's titled "No Team Can Beat the Draft" in relation to other teams. It's a pretty good read on all this. They are incredibly far from perfection due to the enormous number of variables, things that simply cannot be accounted for. But, in general, better players are drafter earlier and worse players later or not at all. Obviously there are exceptions, but again to call it a crap shoot is just dumb. NFL teams don't spend 50 million dollars every season for no reason, if there was no value to scouting then they wouldn't pay people to scout, in a way it's that simple. Play fucked around with this message at 21:50 on Feb 23, 2018 |
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Feb 23, 2018 21:48
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Jiminy Christmas! Shoes! posted:Thanks for providing all the numbers to back this up. Provide your own numbers, or better yet prove that it's a crap shoot yourself if that's what you think. I'm not your math teacher
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Feb 23, 2018 21:49
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Stop using logic against noted mouth-breather Doltos.
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Feb 23, 2018 21:53
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Play posted:I've seen an analysis posted right in this thread with a number related to the total career value of a player, not just their first season but their first four or five season in the league (if an early round pick sucks they will eventually run out of teams who want to let them play) and the chart showed a relatively steady upward trend when checked against draft choices. While I get your point, this logic is pretty flawed. Why would I spend all this money at the casino if I wasn't going to win? Eventually you have to explain to your wife why all you ended up winning at the casino was Christian Hackenburg.
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Feb 23, 2018 22:30
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Compensatory pick list is out https://twitter.com/NFLfootballinfo/status/967152030455418880
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Feb 23, 2018 22:57
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https://twitter.com/OptimumScouting/status/967082084161540096 wut
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Feb 23, 2018 23:05
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Hell yeah another round 7 pick super bowl here we come
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Feb 23, 2018 23:14
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https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/967159227369304065
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Feb 23, 2018 23:14
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Play posted:I've seen an analysis posted right in this thread with a number related to the total career value of a player, not just their first season but their first four or five season in the league (if an early round pick sucks they will eventually run out of teams who want to let them play) and the chart showed a relatively steady upward trend when checked against draft choices. I bet you could do pretty well with a zero budget by just watching ESPN and picking whoever was at the top of Kiper’s big board when it was your turn.
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Feb 23, 2018 23:33
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Four comp picks is a pretty good haul for the Pack. Wondering if Gutekunst will try to show that he's different than Ted and be aggressive and package some of these picks to move up in the draft. Our roster is pretty full, the Packers need quality players more than they need roster-fillers at this point. (Barring another rash of injuries at a single position, of course.)
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Feb 23, 2018 23:46
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Bigass Moth posted:I bet you could do pretty well with a zero budget by just watching ESPN and picking whoever was at the top of Kiper’s big board when it was your turn. I'd love to see some sort of aggregate based on the rankings of the top draft experts and seeing how it would match up long term.
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Feb 24, 2018 00:13
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Bigass Moth posted:I bet you could do pretty well with a zero budget by just watching ESPN and picking whoever was at the top of Kiper’s big board when it was your turn. I think the best way to draft is to take BPA regardless of position with the caveat of QB. If you've got a QB with years left in him locked up then just move on your list (unless its after round 3). At times following drafts people said the Panthers were dumb taking Jonathan Stewart a year after DeAngelo Williams, Luke Kuechly when they had Jon Beason, Vernon Butler when they had both Star and K Short (there was some rumblings in the fanbase at the time of going back to back on DT too), but every move ended up paying off because they were top of their board and were good players. Packers seem to do it a lot with their receivers too. I think the time to take a weird shot is in the latter rounds, gimme small school guys who destroyed their competition and see if they can make a go of it.
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Feb 24, 2018 01:52
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Sataere posted:While I get your point, this logic is pretty flawed. Why would I spend all this money at the casino if I wasn't going to win? Eventually you have to explain to your wife why all you ended up winning at the casino was Christian Hackenburg. LOL, yeah, and there is plenty of guesswork. I loved that video someone posted earlier (I actually like most of that guys videos, but it was so dumb) about how even though Hackenberg couldn't throw to save his life he could "read defenses" lol, and when it doesn't work it's not his fault. I'd say it's closer to blackjack than craps, if you play the system correctly you have a reasonable chance of coming away with something good. It's easy to focus on the busts while ignoring that the majority of great players in the league were drafted properly according to the career numbers they eventually produced. What's interesting is there is the general trend of better players being taken earlier in the draft, but at the same time no team has managed to consistently (say over a decade) outperform that general pattern. Bigass Moth posted:I bet you could do pretty well with a zero budget by just watching ESPN and picking whoever was at the top of Kiper’s big board when it was your turn. I was with you until you said Kiper... lol. That dude still has Josh Allen at number one which, to say the least, is not the consensus of the majority of people who do this for a living and I personally think is amazingly dumb. But seriously, there is some truth to this. Like I said above it's difficult to outperform the mean consistently as it relates to all of the other teams, probably because a lot of this information is available to anyone who wants to look. The real skill of scouting for a team doesn't come from just rating players in comparison to all the other players, but in being in position to take a player that you want for YOUR team - what your gameplan is to win and which pieces you still need to make that game plan a success. You also want to take guys who are intelligent, understand the game and can learn new plays and techniques quickly. A lot of that comes from the private workouts with the various teams that produce information not available to everyone. Overall, this information doesn't amount to a very big advantage as proved by the fact that no one can do it consistently better than anyone else. Play fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Feb 24, 2018 |
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Feb 24, 2018 03:21
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JIZZ DENOUEMENT posted:Stop using logic against noted mouth-breather Doltos. None of that's logic. You're an idiot. Play posted:I've seen an analysis posted right in this thread with a number related to the total career value of a player, not just their first season but their first four or five season in the league (if an early round pick sucks they will eventually run out of teams who want to let them play) and the chart showed a relatively steady upward trend when checked against draft choices. Your chart just backs up the inference that people who are drafted higher are given more playing time to produce and cement themselves as starters. It doesn't mean they're 'better', per se, nor does it mean they will produce at a higher rate than league average. Just that they put up stats because they're given playing time. Also hyping five years into the players career isn't a big deal, you're talking about one rookie contract. Calling it a crap shoot means you can identify a group of kids as having Top X talent and then have any number of them succeed or fail. Comparing kids being good against one another and having the 'bad' players drop to lower rounds isn't hard to do either. It's mostly performed by checking stat leaders then inviting them to the combine. Same thing happens in college recruiting. You check the kids who have absurd stats in their states, invite them to a SEC school, then watch them get drafted high in the NFL. The problem is do they do well in the NFL, not that do they deserve to be there. That's all easily gleaned through their histories and their athletic statistics (combine times). When you come up with a model that turns that particular difficulty (identifying which player will be good in the NFL in relation to where they're picked in the draft) into a science and not a crap shoot, call me. I'll steal your idea and get hired by every NFL team.
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Feb 24, 2018 05:38
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Bryon Pringle is the best wr in the draft
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Feb 24, 2018 06:01
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Is Calvin Ridley worth betting on which team he goes to or which round he’s in? Seems like he’ll be one of the best WR’s of this class.
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Feb 24, 2018 08:18
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Are there different sources who rank the upcoming drafts based on actual overall football skills vs team needs vs team management? Every time I see Kiper or whoever on ESPN it seems like they talk mostly about the player rather than about the team's needs or why the team likes that specific person over another. I mean if the Browns really need a guy who can perform on his knees I guess they have their guy (per Kiper).
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Feb 24, 2018 08:23
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Inspector 34 posted:really need a guy who can perform on his knees text me
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Feb 25, 2018 22:06
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