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A left leaning independent is someone who leans left but for whatever reasons does not want to identify with the Democratic party. Hillary Clinton and her brand of politics is kind of the avatar of why for a lot of them.
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Mar 4, 2018 01:08
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FuriousxGeorge posted:None of the polling suggested he was going to lose centrist dems. They would unite against Trump behind him just like they did Hillary. Mainstream dems plus independent left leaners is a winning coalition if the independent left leaners don’t hate your candidate. Any other independents you pick up is just a bonus. The counterpoint to this is 2008 data, where a non-trivial number of Hillary supporters did end up refusing to vote for Obama in the general. That’s not necessarily Sanders’ fault (in this counterfactual where we don’t know what would’ve happened), but it is a case to be made that Sanders may have traded centrist turn out for base turn out. I don’t know that we have any current polling as to how many people are voters but independent, how many of them are conservative versus liberal, and what kind of views the non-voting population has. Someone should correct me if recent polling on this subject does exist, please.
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Mar 4, 2018 01:19
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Lightning Knight posted:I don’t know that we have any current polling as to how many people are voters but independent, how many of them are conservative versus liberal, and what kind of views the non-voting population has. Someone should correct me if recent polling on this subject does exist, please. pew has plenty of stuff about partisan leaning independents. here's a brief overview: http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/07/05/5-facts-about-americas-political-independents/
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Mar 4, 2018 01:45
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The Muppets On PCP posted:pew has plenty of stuff about partisan leaning independents. here's a brief overview: Cool, thank you!
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Mar 4, 2018 01:51
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earlier i posted that the wv senate passed a 4% wage increase for teachers (it originated in the house last week) this turns out to not be true it apparently turns out they hosed up and accidentally forgot to change "5%" to "4%" before passing it  this dude has pics (his thread has up to date of the senate scrambling to recall -- holy poo poo): https://twitter.com/BradMcElhinny/status/970102302995566592 Tommah fucked around with this message at 02:33 on Mar 4, 2018 |
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Mar 4, 2018 02:29
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Move out there's still time
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Mar 4, 2018 02:34
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Lightning Knight posted:The counterpoint to this is 2008 data, where a non-trivial number of Hillary supporters did end up refusing to vote for Obama in the general. That’s not necessarily Sanders’ fault (in this counterfactual where we don’t know what would’ve happened), but it is a case to be made that Sanders may have traded centrist turn out for base turn out. It's hard to say, but one could argue that the unusually large shift from Clinton primary supporters to McCain was representative of a greater shift of more conservative voters away from the Democratic Party as the party began to show more support for things like gay marriage, etc (I know they didn't officially support it by 2008, but there was at least obvious momentum in that direction). Obama also gave the general impression of being relatively radical/left-leaning in 2008, which would have turned away a lot of Democrats who were strongly opposed to the left. So it's not really clear if those folks are even still part of the Democratic Party. I feel like a more useful statistic is the favorability polls people frequently cite, which indicate only a small percent (like 4-8%) of Democrats dislike Sanders. Granted, 4-8% is enough to be significant, but I doubt it's any greater than the number of "never-Clinton" Sanders primary voters.
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Mar 4, 2018 02:38
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Tommah posted:earlier i posted that the wv senate passed a 4% wage increase for teachers (it originated in the house last week) This is... good, right?
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Mar 4, 2018 02:58
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GreyjoyBastard posted:This is... good, right? yes and hilarious they may end up recalling it but im not sure of the process to do it or whether or not the GOP has the votes to pull it off i saw someone suggest that a recall takes 2/3 majority and the GOP doesnt have that in WV senate
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Mar 4, 2018 03:01
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Tommah posted:yes and hilarious 
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Mar 4, 2018 03:03
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wouldn't this only end the strike if it also includes the health care increases as well
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Mar 4, 2018 03:05
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Raskolnikov38 posted:wouldn't this only end the strike if it also includes the health care increases as well yes at least thats the posturing the union has set up -- last week the plan from the governor was for wednesday to be a "cool off" day and for teachers to go back to work on thursday (after wage increase) but the teachers did not do this because of the lack of healthcare in the proposal (and the wage thing didn't happen) so not only is the senate owning themselves with the pay increase but they're not even going to end the situation
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Mar 4, 2018 03:07
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Ytlaya posted:I feel like a more useful statistic is the favorability polls people frequently cite, which indicate only a small percent (like 4-8%) of Democrats dislike Sanders. Granted, 4-8% is enough to be significant, but I doubt it's any greater than the number of "never-Clinton" Sanders primary voters. Right, but that statistic is in the present, no? And while Sanders isn’t officially running for anything. I mean, it’s entirely counterfactual, there’s no way to know how much centrists would’ve thrown a tantrum in 2016 had Sanders somehow won the nomination.
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Mar 4, 2018 03:21
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live twitter feed of the procedural maneuvering to recall the wv senate 5% bill https://twitter.com/WVSenClerk
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Mar 4, 2018 03:29
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senate amended the bill back to 5% and passed it house rejected the change now there has to be a resolution committee or w/e
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Mar 4, 2018 05:02
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Tommah posted:senate amended the bill back to 5% and passed it You mean 4%?
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Mar 4, 2018 05:27
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Teddybear posted:You mean 4%? yes sorry
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Mar 4, 2018 07:43
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Willa Rogers posted:The DNC is holding its winter meeting next week, at which the Rules & Bylaws committee will be voting on the Unity Reform Committee proposals. Does it even matter, at this point? The DNC is totally bankrupt, both in the fiscal sense and the moral, and it feels like it can't do much to help nor to hinder progressive candidates. The DCCC is the well-funded organization that is pulling out all the stops to swing the party further to the right - the DNC would be doing that but they haven't got any money. They can't afford the consultants and the left wants nothing to do with them.
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Mar 4, 2018 10:10
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https://twitter.com/alexnpress/status/970063582103789568
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Mar 4, 2018 16:58
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Doorknob Slobber fucked around with this message at 17:40 on Mar 4, 2018 |
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Mar 4, 2018 17:27
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Doorknob Slobber posted:
I'm coming to think of most people who identify as Democratic voters as people who are generally good and well intentioned but don't realize how hosed up the party leadership is. Just like how people don't realize how ridiculously powerful the NRA is.
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Mar 4, 2018 20:12
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Puts that Joy Reid tweet calling out the teachers for voting against their interests even more in perspective.
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Mar 4, 2018 20:34
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Some real Galaxy brain poo poo going on in that op-ed.
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Mar 4, 2018 21:02
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Kilroy posted:I assume they will reject all but a handful of token measures, which will then be half-heartedly implemented, if that. I just read that the Rules & Bylaws committee doesn't have to make its recommendations about the reform proposals till June, and that it hasn't been decided if the delegate votes to be taken on such recs will take place before the midterms. Even though the majority of recs have to do with presidential elections, there are also proposals about financial transparency so just lolol that they're slow-walking everything.
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Mar 4, 2018 21:12
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To add to this, once Right To Work has been enacted in any state, Democrats have never repealed it. Definitely room for improvement on unions.
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Mar 4, 2018 22:26
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Lightning Knight posted:Right, but that statistic is in the present, no? And while Sanders isn’t officially running for anything. That's true, but I think a Clinton primary voter would only choose not to vote at all (or vote non-Democratic) if they were actively opposed to Sanders in a way that wouldn't just disappear post-election. I think the greater point (that I think spawned this question) is that it's extremely likely that anti-Clinton Democratic/Independent voters significantly outnumber anti-Sanders ones. Obviously you can't go back in time and prove it either way, but it's likely Sanders' overall Democratic votes would have been similar to Clinton's while his votes from non-Democrats would have been substantially higher than Clinton's (given Clinton's low support among people who don't identify as Democrats).
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Mar 4, 2018 22:59
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Ytlaya posted:That's true, but I think a Clinton primary voter would only choose not to vote at all (or vote non-Democratic) if they were actively opposed to Sanders in a way that wouldn't just disappear post-election. And in states that proved decisive. We have to remember, we’re living in a system where as little as 23% of the popular vote can win a candidate a winning number of electoral votes. While that is, uh, not a great sign in terms of how healthy the system is, it could also spell opportunity for the Dems, were they to get their poo poo together and behave strategically for a change.
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Mar 5, 2018 01:17
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Majorian posted:And in states that proved decisive. We have to remember, we’re living in a system where as little as 23% of the popular vote can win a candidate a winning number of electoral votes. While that is, uh, not a great sign in terms of how healthy the system is, it could also spell opportunity for the Dems, were they to get their poo poo together and behave strategically for a change. One of the big issues there is that urban areas vote Democrat as gently caress and the population is becoming increasingly urbanized. The states with the sparsest populations and fewest electoral votes tend to be pretty red; the end result there is that an individual vote for president from Wyoming counts for more than an individual vote from California. A major difference between R and D in America right now is that Republicans have weaponized procedure and as soon as they get even the tiniest shred of power or slimmest majority use it to gently caress up the system in their own advantage in any way they can.
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Mar 5, 2018 01:43
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Democrazy posted:To add to this, once Right To Work has been enacted in any state, Democrats have never repealed it. Definitely room for improvement on unions. This is like saying the ocean has room for improvement on being dry
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Mar 5, 2018 12:29
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BENGHAZI 2 posted:This is like saying the ocean has room for improvement on being dry We're working on it.
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Mar 5, 2018 12:34
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/05/us/politics/trump-nuclear-russia-containment.html It's worth noting that the actual body of this article is kind of interesting, in that it is (trying to be) critical of Trump buying into Cold War-style nuclear arms race theater and rhetoric while neglecting cybersecurity and warfare, where they anticipate the bulk of modern conflict will actually take place.
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Mar 5, 2018 18:48
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Lightning Knight posted:cybersecurity and warfare, where they anticipate the bulk of modern conflict will actually take place.
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Mar 5, 2018 18:54
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“We agree on 99% of issues” https://twitter.com/EALindquist/status/970027666731683841?s=20
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Mar 5, 2018 18:56
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Rent-A-Cop posted:I think the correct response to this kind of theorizing is "Call me when Twitter bots can hold a hill." I mean, they don't mention that, and the hacking of systems that actually matter, like banks and poo poo, is actually a worry imo. If anything the focus on Twitter bots is obscuring the more alarming reality that American cybersecurity broadly speaking is garbage at basically every level. ^ lol what?
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Mar 5, 2018 18:58
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The NY Times is generally ok in their reporting within their articles But 6 out of 10 Americans admit to not reading beyond headlines when asked so
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Mar 5, 2018 19:04
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Chomskyan posted:The NY Times is generally ok in their reporting within their articles This is one of those things that I think is a core failing of the school system, really. But teachers would be too afraid to teach media literacy, lest they be fired for being "biased."
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Mar 5, 2018 19:05
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Rent-A-Cop posted:I think the correct response to this kind of theorizing is "Call me when Twitter bots can hold a hill." Yea, let's see them hold the fulda gap, and other irrelevant things in the modern world.
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Mar 5, 2018 19:17
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Yea, let's see them hold the fulda gap, and other irrelevant things in the modern world. Cyber is useful when it serves as a force multiplier for conventional arms, as had been demonstrated repeatedly in Syria and Iraq, but the whole "they gon' hack are Gibson!" angle is just the MIC bleating for more funding for projects that produce nothing but PowerPoint slides.
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Mar 5, 2018 19:25
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WampaLord posted:The people who want "change" in the abstract want better lives. People who are anti-immigrant tend to be poor whites without college education, and pretty much any good study on the subject says that these people are hurt by immigration, which benefits the capitalist class primarily and secondarily people with college degrees.
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Mar 5, 2018 19:27
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