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Cucked by Erdogan 
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Mar 7, 2018 17:42
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Does anyone else kind of want to see two of the world's best funded but least competent militaries square off? It would run the risk of seriously depleting the global supply of useless princelings.
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Mar 7, 2018 17:42
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Does anyone else kind of want to see two of the world's best funded but least competent militaries square off? Even right after the coup attempt I'd bet Turkey's military was considerably more competent than the Saudis. They might have made relatively slow progress taking Al Bab, but they did achieve their objective without any real setbacks, and they're owning the Kurds pretty hard now, whereas the Saudis have been wrecking Yemen for years with not a lot to show for it.
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Mar 7, 2018 17:50
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Sinteres posted:Even right after the coup attempt I'd bet Turkey's military was considerably more competent than the Saudis. They might have made relatively slow progress taking Al Bab, but they did achieve their objective without any real setbacks, and they're owning the Kurds pretty hard now, whereas the Saudis have been wrecking Yemen for years with not a lot to show for it. Thankfully the list of countries that can project force in a meaningful way is very short and doesn't include anyone in the current competition to become the self proclaimed King of all Muslims.
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Mar 7, 2018 17:58
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The recent Saudi regional offensive has been one of the most devastating self-owns in our lifetimes. Sinteres posted:Even right after the coup attempt I'd bet Turkey's military was considerably more competent than the Saudis. They might have made relatively slow progress taking Al Bab, but they did achieve their objective without any real setbacks, and they're owning the Kurds pretty hard now, whereas the Saudis have been wrecking Yemen for years with not a lot to show for it. I can't think of a single regional player that the Saudis could actually push around.
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Mar 7, 2018 18:01
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Does anyone else kind of want to see two of the world's best funded but least competent militaries square off? It’s not the useless princelings who would wind up suffering the consequences.
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Mar 7, 2018 18:22
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Its fortunate that the none of the Middle Eastern power blocs have shared borders because otherwise this has a very Europe circa 1912 ish feel to it. Luckily I don't think any nation in that part of the world has any way to project power in a meaningful way other than a general offensive across their own borders, which for many obvious reasons can't and won't happen. Israel has the ability to launch long range bombing runs but that's about it.
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Mar 7, 2018 18:50
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Flayer posted:Its fortunate that the none of the Middle Eastern power blocs have shared borders because otherwise this has a very Europe circa 1912 ish feel to it. Luckily I don't think any nation in that part of the world has any way to project power in a meaningful way other than a general offensive across their own borders, which for many obvious reasons can't and won't happen. Israel has the ability to launch long range bombing runs but that's about it. They've staked everything on supporting either uprisings or authoritarian regimes in other countries, which is a better return on investment. Other than backing Sisi in Egypt its hard to think of a Saudi success. Iran is clearly the best at it right now, which is why everyone else is scrambling to try and shore up their own influence.
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Mar 7, 2018 18:54
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Flayer posted:Its fortunate that the none of the Middle Eastern power blocs have shared borders because otherwise this has a very Europe circa 1912 ish feel to it. Luckily I don't think any nation in that part of the world has any way to project power in a meaningful way other than a general offensive across their own borders, which for many obvious reasons can't and won't happen. Israel has the ability to launch long range bombing runs but that's about it. Once ISIS took Mosul, I figured Iraq was going to be a long term proxy battleground between Iran and KSA. Southern Iraq, Kuwait and the gulf itself only separate the two by a few hundred km. That's close enough for a real if embarrassing air war if things got really serious. In the meantime places like Syria, Iraq and Yemen will keep getting hosed, probably more and more seriously too.
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Mar 7, 2018 20:16
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The only way Iraq gets hosed now imo is if the Shia militias turn on the government (or vice versa I guess). After years of training by both the US and Iran, and years of combat against ISIS, it seems like the Iraqi army and associated militias have finally put together a force that can hold the country together and probably won't turn and run the next time Sunni insurgents show up. It remains to be seen if the government will choose to try to bring Sunnis back into politics or if they'll just plan to stomp on them forever to get revenge (which is the more typical way minorities get treated in the region), but I think Iraq should be capable of holding the country together at this point either way (again, as long as the Shia don't turn on each other now).
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Mar 7, 2018 20:58
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Sinteres posted:The only way Iraq gets hosed now imo is if the Shia militias turn on the government (or vice versa I guess). After years of training by both the US and Iran, and years of combat against ISIS, it seems like the Iraqi army and associated militias have finally put together a force that can hold the country together and probably won't turn and run the next time Sunni insurgents show up. It remains to be seen if the government will choose to try to bring Sunnis back into politics or if they'll just plan to stomp on them forever to get revenge (which is the more typical way minorities get treated in the region), but I think Iraq should be capable of holding the country together at this point either way (again, as long as the Shia don't turn on each other now). I still see a good chance for some interesting politics related to Iranian influence, but yeah, the military is in a much stronger place now.
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Mar 7, 2018 21:10
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Sinteres posted:The only way Iraq gets hosed now imo is if the Shia militias turn on the government (or vice versa I guess). After years of training by both the US and Iran, and years of combat against ISIS, it seems like the Iraqi army and associated militias have finally put together a force that can hold the country together and probably won't turn and run the next time Sunni insurgents show up. It remains to be seen if the government will choose to try to bring Sunnis back into politics or if they'll just plan to stomp on them forever to get revenge (which is the more typical way minorities get treated in the region), but I think Iraq should be capable of holding the country together at this point either way (again, as long as the Shia don't turn on each other now). Wonder how many iraqi election cycles it takes for a shia party to take a super majority in the country.
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Mar 8, 2018 00:11
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Flayer posted:Its fortunate that the none of the Middle Eastern power blocs have shared borders because otherwise this has a very Europe circa 1912 ish feel to it. Luckily I don't think any nation in that part of the world has any way to project power in a meaningful way other than a general offensive across their own borders, which for many obvious reasons can't and won't happen. Israel has the ability to launch long range bombing runs but that's about it. There's hella missiles in the ME precisely to act as both a deterrent and a means of projecting power. Iran has been one of the main developers of missile tech in the world. Iraq was infamous for scuds. Missiles have always been popular because they don't defect or decide to strafe presidential palaces. Pretty much the only state-level group that doesn't have tons of missiles is Hesbollah because Israel bombs every shipment they hear of coming out of Syria. Hell their involvement in Syria was originally in part in exchange for missiles. Also Yemen and Syria are both very explicitly being used as trial runs for more ground-based power projection. Certainly no one is on US level, but that's a side effect of having like 5x more carriers than the rest of the world combined. Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 02:44 on Mar 8, 2018 |
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Mar 8, 2018 02:41
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Warbadger posted:I still see a good chance for some interesting politics related to Iranian influence, but yeah, the military is in a much stronger place now. What does the Iraqi military look like without Shia militia support, and the organizational and material aid of the Quds force?
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Mar 8, 2018 03:23
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Herstory Begins Now posted:There's hella missiles in the ME precisely to act as both a deterrent and a means of projecting power. Iran has been one of the main developers of missile tech in the world. Iraq was infamous for scuds. Missiles have always been popular because they don't defect or decide to strafe presidential palaces. Pretty much the only state-level group that doesn't have tons of missiles is Hesbollah because Israel bombs every shipment they hear of coming out of Syria. Hell their involvement in Syria was originally in part in exchange for missiles. Hezbollah has tons of missiles, had tons on missiles, and likely has more missiles than when the Syrian war started, unless you assume a 100% Israeli interception rate of supplies. It’s even more ludicrous when you know that Iran has likely managed to smuggle rockets into Yemen over sea through a blockade, or overland through a non-aligned country then through enemy territory. Hezbollah has tons of missiles. Probably more than Syria has. They maintained what like 100 a day throughout the 2006 war.
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Mar 8, 2018 07:38
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Sinteres posted:Yeah, that's why i wa saying I don't really buy the cynical explanation. Even when Obama was president nobody really cared what we were doing overseas as long as body bags weren't coming home (with Benghazi showing just how little appetite the public had for any amount of risk taking at all), and with the Trump circus in town everyone's too busy freaking out about whatever idiotic thing he's doing to worry at all about what's going on overseas. We've always been a myopic country, but that's dramatically increased over the last couple years. And I think this might be exactly the Russian strategy to get us to leave Syria. I'm sure they know that if a bunch of US troops get killed it's going to wake up a bunch of people back home about our presence there and they'll be wondering why we are there at all at this point. They can use the Syrians, Iranian proxies, and Russian "private contractors" to hit our guys without the blowback of doing it with regular Russian forces. Hell, this might have been why they attacked the SDF/US base a few weeks ago. That might have been an attempt at a bloody nose attack that went hilariously bad for the attackers. Like others have said, Americans either don't know or don't care about our presence in Syria because our guys aren't coming home in body bags. But a big attack and heavy casualties is going to put the Syria mission front and center in the news and possibly cause a withdrawal of forces ala Beirut 83.
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Mar 8, 2018 08:51
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Coldwar timewarp posted:Hezbollah has tons of missiles, had tons on missiles, and likely has more missiles than when the Syrian war started, unless you assume a 100% Israeli interception rate of supplies. It’s even more ludicrous when you know that Iran has likely managed to smuggle rockets into Yemen over sea through a blockade, or overland through a non-aligned country then through enemy territory. If this is true, why are they sitting on them? I haven't heard about an uptick in Iron Dome usage, although thinking about it now it would be cool to see some statistics.
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Mar 8, 2018 09:38
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https://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/971613347467669505?s=19 Rifai is not loving around today.
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Mar 8, 2018 09:58
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The Protagonist posted:If this is true, why are they sitting on them? I haven't heard about an uptick in Iron Dome usage, although thinking about it now it would be cool to see some statistics. They're saving them for the next big war. Hezbollah is very different from Hamas or militants in Gaza. They're effectively led and pretty disciplined. So they don't launch rockets at Isreal willy nilly, lest they get into a costly war. That being said, I think Hezbollah has launched some in the past year or so, typically in response to Israeli airstrikes. There was one airstrike in particular that (accidentally) killed an Iranian general. Hezbollah struck back, killed a few Israelis and since neither side wanted to escalate they basically left it at that. (fake edit: reading about it, Hezbollah used ATGMs to respond, not quite the same rockets but my point stands) As another poster mentioned, just look at the 2006 war. Hezbollah rained inaccurate rockets on Israel for the entire conflict, and launched a ridiculous amount just before the cease fire. Israel couldn't put a dent in this with their airforce. Since then Hezbollah has had more than a decade to stock up. I think another Hezbollah-Israeli war is right around the corner. When that starts you're going to see Hezbollah launch an absurd number of rockets. Israel's only way of stopping is a ground invasion.
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Mar 8, 2018 10:19
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/971613347467669505?s=19 I was looking at pro-Assad Twitter over the last few days (for research purposes, so help me), and I think the reporting around Ghouta has broken their brains even more than usual, especially with the way in which they're trying to debunk as many White Helmets videos as possible with (intentional or not) misinterpretation of images and reports. It reminds me a lot of the behaviour of MH17 Truthers at their worst, where it seemed like everyday they had a new photo or video that proved Ukraine shot down MH17 with a SU-25, and it always turned out to be some out of context, misunderstood, or purposefully incorrect image. It gets to a point where their position becomes more about faith than facts, so they get increasingly agitated at moments like these.
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Mar 8, 2018 11:05
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Brown Moses posted:I was looking at pro-Assad Twitter over the last few days (for research purposes, so help me), and I think the reporting around Ghouta has broken their brains even more than usual, especially with the way in which they're trying to debunk as many White Helmets videos as possible with (intentional or not) misinterpretation of images and reports. It reminds me a lot of the behaviour of MH17 Truthers at their worst, where it seemed like everyday they had a new photo or video that proved Ukraine shot down MH17 with a SU-25, and it always turned out to be some out of context, misunderstood, or purposefully incorrect image. It gets to a point where their position becomes more about faith than facts, so they get increasingly agitated at moments like these. I'm pretty sure in just a few months, when it stops being current, all they'll achieve is looking like this. And with an extra nose job paid by Russians maybe. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYKScQ3gn2I CrazyLoon fucked around with this message at 13:36 on Mar 8, 2018 |
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Mar 8, 2018 13:33
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Brown Moses posted:I was looking at pro-Assad Twitter over the last few days (for research purposes, so help me), and I think the reporting around Ghouta has broken their brains even more than usual, especially with the way in which they're trying to debunk as many White Helmets videos as possible with (intentional or not) misinterpretation of images and reports. It reminds me a lot of the behaviour of MH17 Truthers at their worst, where it seemed like everyday they had a new photo or video that proved Ukraine shot down MH17 with a SU-25, and it always turned out to be some out of context, misunderstood, or purposefully incorrect image. It gets to a point where their position becomes more about faith than facts, so they get increasingly agitated at moments like these. I noticed it after that newsweek article that took that Mattis quote out of context. A handful came back and said "ok, Mattis didn't actually say the regime had never used sarin, but." Most just continued to pretend that he did. It was one of the more egregious examples showing it isn't skepticism and diligence that exists in their articles, but outright misinformation and a desire to hide the truth. Ever since it's like they don't even care if they're proven to be liars. Their audience obviously isn't bothered by it.
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Mar 8, 2018 14:50
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Situation in Afrin continues to be rather dire. Jindires looks to have fallen. https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/971732702146781189
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Mar 8, 2018 14:59
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https://twitter.com/hdagres/status/971761458320199680?s=19 Some interesting theories on why Ahmadinejad still breathes air in this article.
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Mar 8, 2018 16:04
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Volkerball posted:I noticed it after that newsweek article that took that Mattis quote out of context. A handful came back and said "ok, Mattis didn't actually say the regime had never used sarin, but." Most just continued to pretend that he did. It was one of the more egregious examples showing it isn't skepticism and diligence that exists in their articles, but outright misinformation and a desire to hide the truth. Ever since it's like they don't even care if they're proven to be liars. Their audience obviously isn't bothered by it. So much so that the Syrian delegate to the UNSC cited the Newsweek article: quote:"One of the most important political magazines, the American Newsweek, published an article on 8 February written by Ian Wilkie entitled “Now Mattis Admits There Was No Evidence Assad Used Poison Gas on His People”. The United States Secretary of Defence admits in that article that there is no proof of the use of toxic gas by the Syrian Government against it people, neither in Khan Shaykhun nor in Al-Ghouta in 2013" And did Newsweek retract the piece once the error was established? Nope, they gave Ian Wilkie another piece, where even he edged away from his previous claim in the same publication: quote:Secretary of Defense James Mattis made it very clear recently that “aid groups and others” had provided the U.S. with evidence that was insufficient to conclude that President Bashar Assad had recently used the chemical weapon Sarin against Syrian civilians.
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Mar 8, 2018 16:48
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Charliegrs posted:And I think this might be exactly the Russian strategy to get us to leave Syria. I'm sure they know that if a bunch of US troops get killed it's going to wake up a bunch of people back home about our presence there and they'll be wondering why we are there at all at this point. They can use the Syrians, Iranian proxies, and Russian "private contractors" to hit our guys without the blowback of doing it with regular Russian forces. Hell, this might have been why they attacked the SDF/US base a few weeks ago. That might have been an attempt at a bloody nose attack that went hilariously bad for the attackers. I imagine their strategy is much more sophisticated and robust than that. I doubt a large loss of life would result in much beyond some kind of severe show of strength on the part of Trump and the DoD
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Mar 8, 2018 18:17
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You thought ~*PIPELINES*~ was high up on the galaxy brain scale? I give you trans-dimensional brain https://twitter.com/Partisangirl/status/971657346601517057
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Mar 8, 2018 19:24
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Radio Prune posted:You thought ~*PIPELINES*~ was high up on the galaxy brain scale?
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Mar 8, 2018 19:25
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Radio Prune posted:You thought ~*PIPELINES*~ was high up on the galaxy brain scale? And the others are Yemen and Libya, checks out. There are McDonalds/Burger Kings/whatevs in the occupied territories of Palestine?
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Mar 8, 2018 19:28
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KFC left Syria because of the war lol. There's KFC in Gaza too.
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Mar 8, 2018 19:31
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Radio Prune posted:You thought ~*PIPELINES*~ was high up on the galaxy brain scale? Um, I don't think there's any US fast food in Iran. Period. There are a few gems though: https://www.buzzfeed.com/politicallyaff/the-greatest-form-of-flattery-imitation-american-ebwy?utm_term=.km9w99dgY#.pwQQKKdDl Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/hdagres/status/971761458320199680?s=19 I like some of these but some are a lil silly to me (that Ahmadinejad has secret dirt, namely. but that's called out, already. I think the infallibility thing is also not meaningful. He is still pretty popular AFAIK, though. ). I'd add one more: Ahmadinejad & his network have capital reserves abroad that the government wants to eventually get to. Going after him directly is a sure way to make sure that'll never happen.
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Mar 8, 2018 19:58
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I think the regime being afraid of targeting him is more likely than his influence being so little that they're just leaving him be. They just went after the dervishes ffs. Idk, maybe they're just letting him dig a nice deep grave for himself.
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Mar 8, 2018 20:22
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Volkerball posted:KFC left Syria because of the war lol. There's KFC in Gaza too. Yeah but the wait sucks, your limited to chicken chips coleslaw and apple pie and its 27$ per loving meal. Who would kfc in gaza. Just bring a pocture of a dominos pizza to a breas maker and let him do the work.
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Mar 8, 2018 21:46
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Maybe being a former head of government is enough of a protection on its own for Ahmadinejad. This is not North Korea, the regime is limited in what it can do without alerting the public.
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Mar 8, 2018 23:40
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Volkerball posted:I think the regime being afraid of targeting him is more likely than his influence being so little that they're just leaving him be. They just went after the dervishes ffs. Idk, maybe they're just letting him dig a nice deep grave for himself. Got any links on that? Not doubting it, just haven't seen anything on it. That would certainly be remarkable. Like it makes sense given how anti-authority or just purely cynical towards authority most branches of Sufiism and folk Islam are, but Iranians also really love their Sufis and hold them in serious esteem.
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Mar 9, 2018 01:37
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Herstory Begins Now posted:Got any links on that? Not doubting it, just haven't seen anything on it. That would certainly be remarkable. Like it makes sense given how anti-authority or just purely cynical towards authority most branches of Sufiism and folk Islam are, but Iranians also really love their Sufis and hold them in serious esteem. Here's a story from when the protests were going on two weeks ago. It was about as big a deal as anything centered around the dervish community could be. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-43120815 Since then a handful of protesters have died in custody. One was an Iran-Iraq war vet. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Mar 9, 2018 |
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Mar 9, 2018 01:44
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Palestinians already know better chicken anyway, haven't you seen Curb Your Enthusiasm?
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Mar 9, 2018 04:10
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So uh some guys in Bahrain were planning something really big: The white stuff is all explosives. Over one hundred people have been arrested in connection with an alleged Iran backed group. I guess anybody who wants social change in Bahrain doesn't have many other options.
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Mar 9, 2018 04:41
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Are those fire extinguishers lined up there?
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Mar 9, 2018 06:24
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Radio Prune posted:You thought ~*PIPELINES*~ was high up on the galaxy brain scale? durrrrr
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Mar 9, 2018 09:14
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