Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Post
  • Reply
doverhog
May 31, 2013

Defender of democracy and human rights 🇺🇦

Jerry Cotton posted:

Oh did they also claim they were a workers' party?

Yes. In the metsä they are all the parties.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

doverhog
May 31, 2013

Defender of democracy and human rights 🇺🇦
HS article I'm not sure is readable to non readers, so here it is. There are some real deep problems living among us right now. It's a hard issue to talk about because everyone chooses with who and even if they wanna gently caress, or have kids with. It still is an issue.

quote:

SYNTYVYYS on romahtanut Suomessa. Jyrkkä lasku on ollut yllätys, ja nyt se on pakko alkaa ottaa tosissaan.

Se on tiedetty pitkään, että Suomessa vanhusten määrä suhteessa työikäisiin kasvaa lähivuodet nopeammin kuin useimmissa muissa maissa. Tähän on jo hyvän aikaa varauduttu.

On tehty eläkeuudistus ja nostettu eläkeikiä. Nyt tehdään sote-uudistusta, jonka yksi tarkoitus on selviytyä räjähtäen kasvavista hoivamenoista.

Se, mihin sen sijaan ei ole vielä varauduttu, on lapsikato. Syntyvyys laskee paljon nopeammin kuin on ennustettu.

Nyt myös valtiovarainministeriö on havahtunut tähän. Kun rahoja vahtaava ministeriö on jostakin huolissaan, voi olla varma, että asia on tuota pikaa myös politiikan asialistalla.

Valtiovarainministeriön valtiosihteeri Martti Hetemäki on käyttänyt heikosta syntyvyydestä viime viikkoina niin julkisia kuin taustoittavia puheenvuoroja. Hän on myös yrittänyt purkaa syitä siihen, miksi väestöennuste on mennyt niin dramaattisesti pieleen kuin oheisesta grafiikasta näkee.


Hetemäki on puhunut aiheesta muun muassa maaliskuun puolivälissä Keva-päivässä. Esityksen voi katsoa tästä.

POLIITTISTEN päätösten kannalta syntyvyyden kiihtyvä lasku on ikävä yllätys. Se vetää mattoa alta niiltä vaikeilta toimilta, joita on jo tehty.

Aiemmin on ajateltu, että huoltosuhde eli työvoiman ulkopuolisten suhde työllisten määrään heikkenisi jyrkästi lähivuodet, mutta heikkeneminen pysähtyisi 2030-luvulla. Nykyisen lapsikadon takia näin ei ilmeisesti käykään.

Hälyttävä merkki on myös se, että syntyneitä on kahtena viime vuonna ollut vähemmän kuin kuolleita. Sadan viime vuoden aikana näin on käynyt aiemmin sotavuosina 1940 ja 1918. Käyrä on tullut Hetemäen mukaan yllättävän jyrkästi alaspäin viime vuosina, ja nimenomaan syntyvyyden takia.


Syitä syntyvyyden laskuun on useita, muun muassa se, että ihmiset lykkäävät perheen perustamista yli 30 ikävuoden. Lapsiluku jää matalammaksi kuin aiemmin, ja monelle riittää hyvin yksikin lapsi.

Syntyvyys on heikentynyt samaa tahtia kuin nuorten miesten työllisyys
TÄLLAISEEN uuteen sosiaaliseen normiin on vaikea politiikalla vaikuttaa, mutta entäs jos se ei olekaan asian ydin?

Hetemäki nostaa esiin erityisesti 25–34-vuotiaat eli parhaassa perheenperustamisiässä olevat miehet. Heidän työllisyysasteensa on 2000-luvulla heikentynyt samaa tahtia kuin syntyvyyskin.

Nuorten miesten erot samanikäisiin naisiin ovat viime vuosina revenneet suuriksi. Perussyynä on miesten heikompi koulutus, joka johtaa heikompaan työllisyyteen ja sitä kautta edelleen pienituloisuuteen.

Nuoret naiset sen sijaan pärjäävät paremmin. Kyseisen ikäryhmän naisissa on selvästi enemmän sellaisia, jotka ovat suorittaneet ylemmän korkeakoulututkinnon kuin sellaisia, jotka ovat pelkän peruskoulun varassa. Samanikäisissä miehissä tilanne on päinvastainen.

SEURAUKSET näkyvät Tilastokeskuksen tulonjakotilastossa: sen mukaan 25–34-vuotiaista miehistä yli 18 prosenttia on pienituloisia, eli heidän tulonsa ovat alle 60 prosenttia mediaanitulosta. Samanikäisistä naisista pienituloisia on alle 10 prosenttia.

Maailmat eriytyvät. Naiset ovat yliopistoissa ja miehet muualla, eiväthän he edes kohtaa, Martti Hetemäki murehti Keva-päivän esityksessään.

Pienituloisten osuus nuorista miehistä on peräti kolminkertaistunut 2000-luvulla. Naisten pienituloisuus on sen sijaan ollut viime vuodet laskussa.

Tämä saattaa olla yksi syy myös syntyvyyden laskuun: merkittävä joukko suomalaisia syrjäytyy juuri silloin, kun olisi otollinen aika perheen perustamiseen.

Sama näkyy myös Väestöliiton perhebarometrin tuloksissa. Työttömät, vähiten koulutetut ja pienituloiset ovat alentaneet käsitystään sopivasta lasten määrästä. Se ei välttämättä ole mikään elämäntyylikysymys, vaan jonkinlaista alistumista siihen, että perheenlisäys vain hankaloittaisi elämäntilannetta.

Puheet siitä, että nuoret eivät halua lapsia mukavuudenhalunsa ja lapsiperhearjen kamaluuden takia, ovat vain pintakuohua. Todellinen ja paljon musertavampi syy on näköalattomuus.

Poliitikot voivat polttaa näppinsä, jos alkavat neuvoa lisääntymisasioissa
POLIITIKOLLE syntyvyys on vaikea teema. Kysykää vaikka Sdp:n puheenjohtajalta Antti Rinteeltä, joka viime kesänä kehotti suomalaisia ryhtymään uudelleen synnytystalkoisiin.

Sdp:n kansanedustajien naamat olivat kesäkokouksessa näkemisen arvoisia, kun Rinne vielä höysti viestiään sanomalla, että suurten ikäluokkien syntymän aikoihin perheitä kannustettiin sloganilla ”neljäs isänmaalle”.

Rinne varmaan tarkoitti hyvää, mutta poliitikon ei kannattaisi ikinä puhua talkoista saati sitten lähteä isänmaallishenkisesti neuvomaan perheitä lisääntymispuuhissa. Hän onnistui suututtamaan erityisesti nuoret naiset.

Vähän samaa koki silloinen pääministeri Matti Vanhanen (kesk) jo 2003. Vanhanen nosti teemaa uudestaan presidentinvaalikampanjassaan, nyt jo hienovaraisemmin.

POLIITIKON patenttivastaus heikkoon syntyvyyteen on perhepolitiikka, mikä tarkoittaa esimerkiksi lapsilisien ja perhevapaiden parantamista. Perhevapaauudistuksen kaatuminen kertoo, että perhepolitiikasta on helppo puhua, mutta sitä on vaikeampi toteuttaa.

Toinen vastaus ovat uudet kansalaiset ulkomailta eli maahanmuutto, jota kiistanalaisempaa yhteiskunnallista teemaa ei juuri voisi olla.

Martti Hetemäen pohdinnat nuorten miesten suuresta köyhyysriskistä ja sen yhteydestä syntyvyyteen pakottavat katsomaan patenttivastauksia pidemmälle.

Hetemäki itse ei Keva-päivässä suostunut kysyttäessä arvioimaan, voisivatko oppivelvollisuusiän pidentäminen yli peruskoulun tai maksuton toinen aste auttaa myös syntyvyyteen.

Ne silti ensimmäisenä tulevat mieleen, jos löytyy lisää todisteita siitä, että Suomen lapsikato on yhteydessä heikkoon koulutukseen ja työllisyyteen sekä pienituloisuuteen.

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

I was going to link that myself, but with some venom: after all, Hetemäki and the other ghouls at the finance ministry have been making our lives miserable since the 1990s recession, so no wonder the young adults who have lived through these last nearly 30 years don't want to start families.

endlessmonotony
Nov 4, 2009

by Fritz the Horse

doverhog posted:

HS article I'm not sure is readable to non readers, so here it is. There are some real deep problems living among us right now. It's a hard issue to talk about because everyone chooses with who and even if they wanna gently caress, or have kids with. It still is an issue.

Kinda hard to feel confident about starting a family when kids are a burden that will loving utterly ruin any spare money you can scrape together in the economy they've created.

The Finnish government is incompetent. News at eleven.

Havana Affair
Apr 6, 2009
As long as the government keeps deporting people to almost certain death their worry about people having less kids is some 14 words bullshit. I kinda recall that in the days of yore before jytky there was almost a consensus among the parties that immigrants would be the way fix the population pyramid. Might be totally misremembering this though.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin
As expected, the comments are mainly about how it is the fault of women for having standards.

No. 1 Callie Fan
Feb 17, 2011

This inkling is your FRIEND
She fights for LOVE

DarkCrawler posted:

As expected, the comments are mainly about how it is the fault of women for having standards.

Women should be more considerate of male self-esteem and be more permissive in sharing their booty, that way they can stop males from becoming disenfranchised from society and turning into societal dead-weights. Their objection to co-operate make them implicit in this dire situation and thus guilty guilty GUILTY in the first degree of terrorism, which is the same thing as feminism.

doverhog
May 31, 2013

Defender of democracy and human rights 🇺🇦
I hate incels too, a lower class of human, if you didn't eat rear end this weekend please leave this thread, but really that is not what this is about on a societal scale. There is something wrong with society, as shown by statistics. Osmo Soininvaara ja hänen kirjat opetti mua kauan sitten ymmärtämään, että tilastot eivät ole poliittisia. On olemassa faktoja, ja sitten on poliittisia tulkintoja ja ratkaisuja. Tämä syntyvyysjuttu on fakta, sitten kaikki sen jälkeen on avoinna keskustelulle.

I blame Kepu. :smug:

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

Havana Affair posted:

As long as the government keeps deporting people to almost certain death their worry about people having less kids is some 14 words bullshit. I kinda recall that in the days of yore before jytky there was almost a consensus among the parties that immigrants would be the way fix the population pyramid. Might be totally misremembering this though.

The correct Cock way to improve the situation is a permanent underclass of underpaid Asian immigrants who have no rights or are unable to claim what is theirs because of their dependency on their employer and the language barrier. The Persian Gulf model.

El Perkele
Nov 7, 2002

I HAVE SHIT OPINIONS ON STAR WARS MOVIES!!!

I can't even call the right one bad.

Sulphagnist posted:

I was going to link that myself, but with some venom: after all, Hetemäki and the other ghouls at the finance ministry have been making our lives miserable since the 1990s recession, so no wonder the young adults who have lived through these last nearly 30 years don't want to start families.

not emptyquoting but yep

Skanker
Mar 21, 2013
If I wanted to have kids I'd probably move abroad first, something a friend of mine did when she decided to move to her husbands home country. 'cos come on.

Darkest Auer
Dec 30, 2006

They're silly

Ramrod XTreme

Skanker posted:

If I wanted to have kids I'd probably move abroad first, something a friend of mine did when she decided to move to her husbands home country. 'cos come on.

That's super dumb because things are generally speaking worse for kids everywhere else. Unless you're filthy rich, but then the problems here in Finland don't really affect you either.

Skanker
Mar 21, 2013

Darkest Auer posted:

That's super dumb because things are generally speaking worse for kids everywhere else. Unless you're filthy rich, but then the problems here in Finland don't really affect you either.

Hey at least my job would pay better

Kemper Boyd
Aug 6, 2007

no kings, no gods, no masters but a comfy chair and no socks
The birth rates reflect similar things such as apartment purchases and so on.

If you're a working-class millennial, it's quite likely that you're stuck in something like the services sector, where they offer you lovely contracts with no job safety. You might even be doing relatively well working like that, but getting a loan for an apartment or starting a family, when you can at a moment's notice be fired or not even fired, just left without work, that's not really a responsible thing to do, is it?

No. 1 Callie Fan
Feb 17, 2011

This inkling is your FRIEND
She fights for LOVE
I feel this ought to be common knowledge that uncertain times will make people postpone making kids, but I guess they thought it wouldn't be as bad since they had all these estimates saying otherwise. Numbers, man. They never lie, until they do.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Kemper Boyd posted:

The birth rates reflect similar things such as apartment purchases and so on.

If you're a working-class millennial, it's quite likely that you're stuck in something like the services sector, where they offer you lovely contracts with no job safety. You might even be doing relatively well working like that, but getting a loan for an apartment or starting a family, when you can at a moment's notice be fired or not even fired, just left without work, that's not really a responsible thing to do, is it?

Also, younger generations are overwhelmingly concentrated in the cities where the cost of living is through the roof. The few people my age who stayed in my hometown have like 2-3 kids each but they can live in a huge house and pay about a third of the rent compared to the shoebox me and my 1 dog barely fit in. Where the gently caress would I fit one child, much less the four I need to have for Motherland according to Antti Rinne? I'm pretty sure I could barely afford just one but only if I could feed them dog food too.

DarkCrawler fucked around with this message at 17:23 on Apr 9, 2018

Darkest Auer
Dec 30, 2006

They're silly

Ramrod XTreme
Also people these days have much more free time and opportunity to use that time to travel, do hobbies or enjoy whatever luxuries they want. Having a kid means an end to pretty much all that. Why would an educated person in their 20s choose hell over experiencing the world?

SnowblindFatal
Jan 7, 2011

No. 1 Callie Fan posted:

I feel this ought to be common knowledge that uncertain times will make people postpone making kids, but I guess they thought it wouldn't be as bad since they had all these estimates saying otherwise. Numbers, man. They never lie, until they do.

Yeah I love the graph with the sharp downward trend and then folks just assuming that yeah, actually right on this moment as we are making this graph, people will continue with their usual breeding habits.

But yeah, in my world view this is precisely a result on the huge uncertainty taking place, not to speak of what's on the horizon.

Darkest Auer posted:

Also people these days have much more free time and opportunity to use that time to travel, do hobbies or enjoy whatever luxuries they want. Having a kid means an end to pretty much all that. Why would an educated person in their 20s choose hell over experiencing the world?

Personally this is the case, even though I don't travel that much.

SnowblindFatal fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Apr 9, 2018

doverhog
May 31, 2013

Defender of democracy and human rights 🇺🇦
Don't think it's just about uncertainty, there is something going on with the separation of the sexes and their levels of education too. Getting married and having kids used to be some you did because you had to. It's different now, lots of people don't get married at all, or can't find a spouse they'd wanna do it with. It's a societal trend like kaupungistuminen and there are no easy "solutions" for politicians to sell.

SnowblindFatal
Jan 7, 2011
Well that too. Also it seems to me that people have less and less energy to physically meet up, especially with strangers, of course depending on social circles and so on. Are we truly prisoners of our (pocket) computers?

endlessmonotony
Nov 4, 2009

by Fritz the Horse

SnowblindFatal posted:

Well that too. Also it seems to me that people have less and less energy to physically meet up, especially with strangers, of course depending on social circles and so on. Are we truly prisoners of our (pocket) computers?

God no.

People still gently caress plenty, and people want to have kids too, it's just that being uncertain about everything but uncertainty makes being sure it's the right time more than a bit difficult.

Did you tattoo a "those newfangled curses" politoon inside your rear end in a top hat?

SnowblindFatal
Jan 7, 2011
What

Rappaport
Oct 2, 2013



mutta oksentamassa älypuhelimia

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

quote:

Sipilä, Orpo ja Terho: Niukan kehysriihen ykkönen on työllisyys – "Ei voida elää jatkuvasti kädet tulevien sukupolvien taskussa"
https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10152434

Wow, that is great, I didn't realize they're going to abolish retirement benefits for their giant gently caress-off generation!

throw to first DAMN IT
Apr 10, 2007
This whole thread has been raging at the people who don't want Saracen invasion to their homes

Perhaps you too should be more accepting of their cultures


Kellä täällä high score?

No. 1 Callie Fan
Feb 17, 2011

This inkling is your FRIEND
She fights for LOVE
Haha, are we now following the Chinese? If we get enough SOTE points, will we be allowed to leave the country?

bloom
Feb 25, 2017

by sebmojo
How many packs a day do I have to smoke to get 69 points?

Darkest Auer
Dec 30, 2006

They're silly

Ramrod XTreme
Can't wait to have the calorie count in food labels replaced with Sote-points

Metanaut
Oct 9, 2006

Honey it's tight like that.
College Slice
Wrong Diagnosis Unnecessary Complicated Treatment - Speedrun - NEW WR!!! -

SnowblindFatal
Jan 7, 2011
Haluisin kyllä nähdä miten tässäki toi pisteytys toteutetaan siten, ettei tilastonikkarit löydä porsaanreikiä.

Vakuutusyhtiöt myy datansa terveysalan firmoille (tai fuusioituvat ja saavat synergiaetuja) ja taas saadaan pari prosenttia viilattua.

Ehkä voisin tehdä henkilökohtaisen bisneksen, jossa esitän paljon sairaampaa ku mitä olen ja sitte saan 50% siitä feikkiriskifyrkasta ja kaverin lääkärifirma toisen 50%.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

throw to first drat IT posted:



Kellä täällä high score?

Type 1 diabeetus :negative:

Sulphagnist
Oct 10, 2006

WARNING! INTRUDERS DETECTED

The government wants to make it easier to fire people.

Sipilä says it's because as a small business owner you take a big risk in hiring your first employee.

That might be true but doesn't explain why the relaxed regulation will cover all companies that are smaller than twenty employees. With 20 it's actually fairly easy to use some fuckery to turn a 50 or 70 person company into a bunch of subsidiaries and have at-will employment. If it were, I don't know, six people, then it would really hamper such loopholing. Given that nothing these folks say or do can be taken in good faith, I can only imagine this is exactly what they have in mind.

His Divine Shadow
Aug 7, 2000

I'm not a fascist. I'm a priest. Fascists dress up in black and tell people what to do.
I wish it was easier to fire the government. Into the sun, or the mariana trench.

bloom
Feb 25, 2017

by sebmojo
I would settle for setting the government on fire.

No. 1 Callie Fan
Feb 17, 2011

This inkling is your FRIEND
She fights for LOVE

Sulphagnist posted:

The government wants to make it easier to fire people.

Sipilä says it's because as a small business owner you take a big risk in hiring your first employee.

That might be true but doesn't explain why the relaxed regulation will cover all companies that are smaller than twenty employees. With 20 it's actually fairly easy to use some fuckery to turn a 50 or 70 person company into a bunch of subsidiaries and have at-will employment. If it were, I don't know, six people, then it would really hamper such loopholing. Given that nothing these folks say or do can be taken in good faith, I can only imagine this is exactly what they have in mind.

The relaxed firing regulations will only concern people under the age of 30, which will probably only increase age discrimination in the job market.

Kuule hain nussivan
Nov 27, 2008

No. 1 Callie Fan posted:

The relaxed firing regulations will only concern people under the age of 30, which will probably only increase age discrimination in the job market.
Actually, that's a different thing. You can now temporarily hire people under the age of 30 who have been employed for a minimum of three months without having to give a reason why the contract is temporary. Because "THOSE LAZY KIDS"!

Obfuscation
Jan 1, 2008
Good luck to you, I know you believe in hell
Nollatuntisopimuksella on saanut jo kauan potkia väkeä pihalle ilman mitään varoitusta

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Kuule hain nussivan posted:

Actually, that's a different thing. You can now temporarily hire people under the age of 30 who have been employed for a minimum of three months without having to give a reason why the contract is temporary. Because "THOSE LAZY KIDS"!

But why aren't young people having more kids?! :qq:

No. 1 Callie Fan
Feb 17, 2011

This inkling is your FRIEND
She fights for LOVE
It's hilarious in a sad way that this week Petteri Orpo was commenting that something has to be done to counter the downward trend in birthrates, and they come out with this plain as day weakening of work security. I guess since people talk that how you don't work for one company for the rest of your life anymore, they thought to give the kids a good push to that lifestyle.

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

bloom
Feb 25, 2017

by sebmojo
idk how many streetlights mannerheimintie has but I think we could get most of the government hanging there if we really tried. why not done?

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • Post
  • Reply