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I just don't understand how you can look at the current state of Syria and conclude that it's going to get better on its own. My solution would be for the West to throw their weight behind the SDF and YPG and let them reform Syria, but that's not gonna happen either is it? Either Erdogan or Assad is going to attack them, and I suppose your solution then would be sitting on our hands as well?
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Apr 12, 2018 21:13
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lollontee posted:I just don't understand how you can look at the current state of Syria and conclude that it's going to get better on its own. Even aside from Turkey, most Syrians don't want to be ruled by Kurds. Slapping a US seal of approval on a group and saying "these are your masters now" doesn't have a great track record in general. Even Raqqa is seeing pro-Assad, anti-YPG protests these days. One thing the US could do that would be helpful would be to reverse this trend: https://twitter.com/mviser/status/984493450409267205 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 21:25 on Apr 12, 2018 |
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Apr 12, 2018 21:16
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lollontee posted:I just don't understand how you can look at the current state of Syria and conclude that it's going to get better on its own. And how are Kurdish militias going to "reform" Syria? Presumably they'd need to conquer the place first-- Damascus isn't going to do what they politely suggest.
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Apr 12, 2018 21:28
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lollontee posted:I just don't understand how you can look at the current state of Syria and conclude that it's going to get better on its own. About a century ago the French did the same with the Alawites after they chopped up the ottoman empire and took syria for themselves and look where we are.
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Apr 12, 2018 21:31
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Assad is going to win the war without massive outside intervention that would include fighting Russia and Iran. I just don't see the point in bombing a few airfields and killing a handful of Syrian army guys. Is this all just to save face because we said "hey don't do that"?
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Apr 12, 2018 23:16
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pro starcraft loser posted:Assad is going to win the war without massive outside intervention that would include fighting Russia and Iran. I just don't see the point in bombing a few airfields and killing a handful of Syrian army guys. Is this all just to save face because we said "hey don't do that"?
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Apr 12, 2018 23:25
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Hey guys (and especially Brown Moses, if he's reading), I've noticed that this has been tossed around social media as proof positive that all of the previous gas attacks are false flags, what do you make of it? NOW MATTIS ADMITS THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE ASSAD USED POISON GAS ON HIS PEOPLE
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Apr 12, 2018 23:33
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khwarezm posted:Hey guys (and especially Brown Moses, if he's reading), I've noticed that this has been tossed around social media as proof positive that all of the previous gas attacks are false flags, what do you make of it? https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2018/02/09/newsweek-engages-easily-debunkable-syria-chemical-weapon-trutherism-help-ian-wilkie/
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Apr 12, 2018 23:35
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Oh, shoulda checked first.
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Apr 12, 2018 23:36
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Our missiles are so smart they told us not to launch them after all
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Apr 12, 2018 23:36
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Rumor is Mattis and Bolton are clashing in meetings, presumably along predictable lines.
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Apr 13, 2018 00:05
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Sinteres posted:Rumor is Mattis and Bolton are clashing in meetings, presumably along predictable lines. I hope Bolton is photographed leaving with a black eye.
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Apr 13, 2018 00:31
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Why does he have such a hard on for getting American Troops killed?
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Apr 13, 2018 00:35
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Sounds like Trump's agreeing with Bolton so far and the military men are dragging their feet. I guess they're just not as brave as the posters here who know for sure Russia will roll over and let us have our way with them. https://twitter.com/K8brannen/status/984555082388828160
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Apr 13, 2018 00:41
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What in the gently caress? Are they lacing their chlorine gas with nerve agents now? What kind of nerve agents would remain stable in pressurized chlorine gas? When I heard the first responders describing symptoms of both chlorine and nerve agents in the victims I thought they were just rookies doing bad assessments whose preceptors had been killed in hospital bombings 2 weeks ago, and now I dunno what to believe.
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Apr 13, 2018 05:56
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Sergg posted:What in the gently caress? Are they lacing their chlorine gas with nerve agents now? What kind of nerve agents would remain stable in pressurized chlorine gas? When I heard the first responders describing symptoms of both chlorine and nerve agents in the victims I thought they were just rookies doing bad assessments whose preceptors had been killed in hospital bombings 2 weeks ago, and now I dunno what to believe. It seems extremely unlikely they would have mixed two agents together, just for purely practical purpose more than anything, but it could be there's another munition used that wasn't documented. In the Saraqib attack in 2013 they dropped Sarin from a helicopter, so it wouldn't be the first time they've deployed it that way.
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Apr 13, 2018 06:37
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khwarezm posted:Hey guys (and especially Brown Moses, if he's reading), I've noticed that this has been tossed around social media as proof positive that all of the previous gas attacks are false flags, what do you make of it? This is the go to piece for war crime denialists at the moment, even though the author himself has admitted it was wrong: https://twitter.com/Wilkmaster/status/984530421479280640 If you want an insight into what he's like just take a quick browse of his Twitter account. Newsweek at least had the decency to let me write a response which called out Newsweek for publishing his bullshit: http://www.newsweek.com/what-truth-about-chemical-attacks-syrian-civilians-805264
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Apr 13, 2018 07:04
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Brown Moses posted:It seems extremely unlikely they would have mixed two agents together, just for purely practical purpose more than anything, but it could be there's another munition used that wasn't documented. In the Saraqib attack in 2013 they dropped Sarin from a helicopter, so it wouldn't be the first time they've deployed it that way. I just spoke with a friend of mine who has a PhD in chemistry and he said that you would have to heavily modify any nerve agent to get it to remain stable inside Chlorine gas without it exploding.
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Apr 13, 2018 08:08
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Maybe they dropped bombs filled with Sarin, and also dropped bombs filled with chlorine? Seems like the most likely explanation to me...
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Apr 13, 2018 08:34
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Charliegrs posted:Maybe they dropped bombs filled with Sarin, and also dropped bombs filled with chlorine? Seems like the most likely explanation to me... It's possible, but so far only two munitions have been documented, both of which are chlorine cylinders. At this point it's extremely unlikely we'll see much additional evidence, so what we have now might be the best we can get until the OPCW runs tests on the victims (if that is possible).
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Apr 13, 2018 08:40
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Sinteres posted:Even aside from Turkey, most Syrians don't want to be ruled by Kurds. Slapping a US seal of approval on a group and saying "these are your masters now" doesn't have a great track record in general. Even Raqqa is seeing pro-Assad, anti-YPG protests these days. Democratic Confederalism is explicitly about autonomy for ethnic and religious groups self-identifying as such, so there's that. As for protests, one midnight party doesn't count as major opposition to YPG in my book but whatever. Count Roland posted:And how are Kurdish militias going to "reform" Syria? Presumably they'd need to conquer the place first-- Damascus isn't going to do what they politely suggest. And Assad is going to take them on eventually, probably after Erdogan decides he hates Kurds more than Assad. It's not a question of polite suggestion, the War simply isn't going to end on its own. Syria has already stopped existing and there really isn't any peaceful way to put it back together either. So to me the argument that american interventionism would result in unnecessary death is a bit moot. Not that it wouldn't, but what other resolution wouldn't either?
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Apr 13, 2018 08:55
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We're already intervening. Our presence protects the Kurds, for now. Hard to say we haven't done enough, and what we have done has only prolonged the conflict. Assad, Russian, and Iran care more about what happens in Syrian than we do, and we'll never be able to out-escalate them. The Kurdish model might provide a model for the region, but it is fundamentally opposed to the status quo powers, capital, and U.S. foreign policy, which loves dictators or monarchs who can respond to a nice 'lever' pulled in Washington, with Jordan being exemplary.
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Apr 13, 2018 09:17
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KaptainKrunk posted:We're already intervening. Our presence protects the Kurds, for now. Hard to say we haven't done enough, and what we have done has only prolonged the conflict. Assad, Russian, and Iran care more about what happens in Syrian than we do, and we'll never be able to out-escalate them. Fair points all around, although 'prolonging the conflict' takes two to tango, and I recall even Sinterest saying that intervening against Daesh was a good idea. YPG is going to have to fight for its survival sooner or later, and that's going to happen regardless of American intervention. Holding out hope for a peaceful resolution is delusional. The escalation will come, and the war will go on. and i got a broken loving body to watch that fight go down with...
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Apr 13, 2018 09:32
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I think the best way to achieve a ‘peaceful’ resolution is through US invasion.I’m a very smart individual. Ooh rah
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Apr 13, 2018 11:47
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Imagine running a dictator academy in the panama canal zone designed to churn out counter-insurgency capable strongmen and keep the hemisphere under the yoke, but still have the chutzpah to take the moral high ground on the issue of human rights violations. 
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Apr 13, 2018 11:54
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so that means I can be a cheapskate and post about posting instead of having some wit or spending any more on comedy avs for people. Which I'm also incapable of. Comedy.
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A Typical Goon posted:I think the best way to achieve a ‘peaceful’ resolution is through US invasion.I’m a very smart individual. Ooh rah I've been asking for other alternatives for the past 3 pages and all I've gotten is "do nothing". So go on, what's yours?
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Apr 13, 2018 11:59
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lollontee posted:I've been asking for other alternatives for the past 3 pages and all I've gotten is "do nothing". So go on, what's yours? don’t invade a country in hopes that you can bomb them into peace
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Apr 13, 2018 12:04
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A Typical Goon posted:don’t invade a country in hopes that you can bomb them into peace deep take
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Apr 13, 2018 12:09
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lollontee posted:I've been asking for other alternatives for the past 3 pages and all I've gotten is "do nothing". So go on, what's yours? A strange game.
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Apr 13, 2018 12:17
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lollontee posted:I've been asking for other alternatives for the past 3 pages and all I've gotten is "do nothing". So go on, what's yours? When you define anything less than invasion as doing nothing you shouldn't really be surprised when that's what you get.
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Apr 13, 2018 13:03
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Count Roland posted:When you define anything less than invasion as doing nothing you shouldn't really be surprised when that's what you get. What is this thing I've defined as doing nothing, incidentally? Unjustly, as you say.
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Apr 13, 2018 13:14
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lollontee posted:What is this thing I've defined as doing nothing, incidentally? Unjustly, as you say. Sinteres posted:If you call arming rebels and occupying resource rich parts of the country doing nothing, sure. lollontee posted:Yes, I would.
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Apr 13, 2018 13:20
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Wait, what occupation?
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Apr 13, 2018 13:24
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Secondly, I'd like some numbers on this, cuz my impression was that US military aid was miniscule and insequential? Most of US intervention has been air strikes against Daesh.
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Apr 13, 2018 13:27
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lollontee posted:Secondly, I'd like some numbers on this, cuz my impression was that US military aid was miniscule and insequential? Most of US intervention has been air strikes against Daesh. In December 2017 the number the Pentagon gave was 2k. Mainly special forces and marines. Was pretty apparent during the operations around lake Assad. Now those troops get to act as observers for airstrikes or tripwires or who knows what.
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Apr 13, 2018 13:50
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lollontee posted:Wait, what occupation? Remember the oil field a shitload of Russians died trying to take from the SDF? We specifically sent the SDF, obviously backed by our forces, there ahead of Assad to deny him the wealth he'll need to reconstruct the country, in an effort to starve the regime and ensure that Iran and Russia never see the long term benefit from their defense of his regime they're hoping for. Trump may abandon that plan if he still wants to withdraw, but who the gently caress knows. lollontee posted:Secondly, I'd like some numbers on this, cuz my impression was that US military aid was miniscule and insequential? Most of US intervention has been air strikes against Daesh. The US, working through the Pentagon, tried to cobble together moderate rebel groups to support for years, but was frustrated by the greater effectiveness/morale of more extreme groups, which wasn't helped by the fact that Turkey and the Gulf States (and the CIA) were working at cross purposes by arming some of the more extreme groups. IIRC, our own Brown Moses documented weapons transfers including ATGM from Croatia which pretty much had to be US backed. I personally think this assistance (and rhetoric we never really lived up to) ended up being just enough to make the war bloodier than it had to be, but I think it was more that Obama was sincere in his belief that Assad had to be overthrown but couldn't find reliable partners than because he was cynically trying to make things worse. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 13:57 on Apr 13, 2018 |
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Apr 13, 2018 13:53
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The US has also been building bases in Syria. And since all this poo poo is secret, they probably have more forces there than they've admitted to.
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Apr 13, 2018 13:56
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Sinteres posted:Remember the oil field a shitload of Russians died trying to take from the SDF? We specifically sent the SDF there ahead of Assad to deny him the wealth he'll need to reconstruct the country, in an effort to starve the regime and ensure that Iran and Russia never see the long term benefit from their defense of his regime they're hoping for. Trump may abandon that plan if he still wants to withdraw, but who the gently caress knows. Sinteres posted:The US, working through the Pentagon, tried to cobble together moderate rebel groups to support for years, but was frustrated by the greater effectiveness/morale of more extreme groups, which wasn't helped by the fact that Turkey and the Gulf States (and the CIA) were working at cross purposes by arming some of the more extreme groups. IIRC, our own Brown Moses documented weapons transfers including ATGM from Croatia which pretty much had to be US backed. I personally think this assistance ended up being just enough to make the war bloodier than it had to be, but I think it was more that Obama was sincere in his belief that Assad had to be overthrown but couldn't find reliable partners than because he was cynically trying to make things worse. Oh, so you agree that it all amounted to absolutely nothing then? You can't have it both ways man, either americans did something consequential, or they didn't. Also I wanna hear exactly what difference those weapons made. Gimme a battle they turned, how many people did the americans arm exactly in the last say... 4 years or so? Or is half the civil war cherry picking too?
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Apr 13, 2018 14:02
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lollontee posted:Ah, the Syrian oil field. Being held by Syrians. And attacked by Russians. Yeah, sorry but I don't count that as "american occupation". Look up the history of colonialism if you don't think working through local proxies counts. lollontee posted:Oh, so you agree that it all amounted to absolutely nothing then? No, I think it amounted to worse than nothing.
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Apr 13, 2018 14:14
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Sinteres posted:Look up the history of colonialism if you don't think working through local proxies counts. YPG isn't a proxy. Sinteres posted:No, I think it amounted to worse than nothing. Cool, but not really part of my argument.
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Apr 13, 2018 14:17
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