|
Here's a thread about how the test site collapse theory is bullshit and North Korea's really stopped testing because they don't have to anymore/because of the summit. https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/989189710416199680
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2018 18:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 22:03 |
|
|
Sinteres posted:Here's a thread about how the test site collapse theory is bullshit and North Korea's really stopped testing because they don't have to anymore/because of the summit. I'm pretty sure the theory is that it was at risk of collapsing if another test was done, not that an entire mountain collapsed and somehow went unreported.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2018 23:49
|
|
|
chitoryu12 posted:I'm pretty sure the theory is that it was at risk of collapsing if another test was done, not that an entire mountain collapsed and somehow went unreported. Either way I think his contention that they could always just use another test site and that they have other tunnels seems like an argument against that being the deciding factor.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2018 23:51
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:Either way I think his contention that they could always just use another test site and that they have other tunnels seems like an argument against that being the deciding factor.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 00:15
|
|
|
So what's the whole point of the test site collapse theory? To make Trump look bad in the weakest way possible?
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 00:25
|
|
|
Tricky D posted:So what's the whole point of the test site collapse theory? To make Trump look bad in the weakest way possible?
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 00:41
|
|
|
Tricky D posted:So what's the whole point of the test site collapse theory? To make Trump look bad in the weakest way possible? Or some people just genuinely thought that's what was going on and were probably wrong. Arguably 'North Korea stopped testing because they already got what they want' is just as opposed to the messaging the White House would like us to believe.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 00:43
|
|
|
Tricky D posted:So what's the whole point of the test site collapse theory? To make Trump look bad in the weakest way possible? The US media is having a really hard time reconciling all these diplomatic breakthroughs with their carefully constructed image of North Korea as a bunch of shady orientals who can't be trusted.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 00:46
|
|
|
Rent-A-Cop posted:It is imperative that no good thing happen while Trump is nominally in charge or he will reign for a thousand years or something. I get that, but Trump negotiating with NK not a good thing for several reasons. The most obvious one I can think of: NK grants no concessions and the status quo continues, which would be an internal propaganda coup for the regime because it will demonstrate that Kim is able to stand up to the West. Not to mention that it will encourage other rouge states to obtain nuclear weapons. So, I don't understand why downplaying NK nuclear capabilities is a useful way to attack the administration.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 00:55
|
|
|
Tricky D posted:I get that, but Trump negotiating with NK not a good thing for several reasons. The most obvious one I can think of: NK grants no concessions and the status quo continues, which would be an internal propaganda coup for the regime because it will demonstrate that Kim is able to stand up to the West. Not to mention that it will encourage other rouge states to obtain nuclear weapons. So, I don't understand why downplaying NK nuclear capabilities is a useful way to attack the administration. I feel the opposite. You don’t really lose anything by negotiating. If we can get something out of it like a peaceful resolution to the conflict, awesome. If Kim gets a propaganda coup, who the hell cares.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 02:36
|
|
|
nelson posted:I feel the opposite. You don’t really lose anything by negotiating. If we can get something out of it like a peaceful resolution to the conflict, awesome. If Kim gets a propaganda coup, who the hell cares. There's another theory that once you get the long delayed summit, it leaves you with little to no options short of war if the parties can't reach some kind of agreement. Until that point you can always hope for another diplomatic breakthrough down the line, but once you get THE big meeting between the two leaders, it's hard to hold out hope for that. That's particularly true if Trump actually believes the poo poo he's saying about North Korea agreeing to what he's demanding and feels that they've betrayed him personally.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 02:42
|
|
|
nelson posted:If Kim gets a propaganda coup, who the hell cares. People who understand how the regime manages to stay in power.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 02:50
|
|
|
Tricky D posted:People who understand how the regime manages to stay in power.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 03:10
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:There's another theory that once you get the long delayed summit, it leaves you with little to no options short of war if the parties can't reach some kind of agreement. Until that point you can always hope for another diplomatic breakthrough down the line, but once you get THE big meeting between the two leaders, it's hard to hold out hope for that. That's particularly true if Trump actually believes the poo poo he's saying about North Korea agreeing to what he's demanding and feels that they've betrayed him personally. I'd imagine Kim would try his drat best to avoid the summit leading to a war Same with Moon as well
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 03:11
|
|
|
Rent-A-Cop posted:They have all the guns. This will not change that situation. loving profundity right here. Governments actually can rule without the consent of the governed.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 03:16
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:I'd imagine Kim would try his drat best to avoid the summit leading to a war I think they're both making a mistake by allowing Trump to believe what he wants to believe going into the summit instead of making it clear what's really on the table. I don't necessarily think war is the most likely outcome, just that it's more likely if the summit is a failure than if the summit didn't happen at all. Kicking the can on North Korea after some bluster is a bipartisan tradition in the US, whereas looking like a fool by treating Kim Jong Un like an equal and getting nothing for it would be a humiliation, especially after Trump's oversold it so dramatically. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 03:29 on Apr 26, 2018 |
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 03:27
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:I think they're both making a mistake by allowing Trump to believe what he wants to believe going into the summit instead of making it clear what's really on the table. I don't necessarily think war is the most likely outcome, just that it's more likely if the summit is a failure than if the summit didn't happen at all. Kicking the can on North Korea after some bluster is a bipartisan tradition in the US, whereas looking like a fool by treating Kim Jong Un like an equal and getting nothing for it would be a humiliation, especially after Trump's oversold it so dramatically. For real. Not to mention that there is no way Kim Jong In is going to denuclear ize. It's the geopolitical chip he has to play and there's no reason to give it up.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 03:33
|
|
|
Well. If the world starts to blow up tomorrow at least I will have a front row seat to it all.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 14:04
|
|
|
Willo567 posted:I'd imagine Kim would try his drat best to avoid the summit leading to a war This happens in game of thrones but have any of these bilateral or trilateral summits actually led to war?
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 14:22
|
|
|
radicaldreamer posted:This happens in game of thrones but have any of these bilateral or trilateral summits actually led to war? It's obviously a very different context, and I'm definitely not trying to open up any I/P debate by using it as an example, but realizing negotiations weren't going anywhere after Clinton tried to force the issue before the end of his presidency contributed pretty strongly to the Second Intifada.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 15:23
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/989360106616782849 https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/989517358648750081 https://twitter.com/christineahn/status/989486527687282688 https://twitter.com/christineahn/status/989487660522590208 
Red and Black fucked around with this message at 22:05 on Apr 26, 2018 |
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2018 17:28
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/AFP/status/989666381577601024?s=19 https://twitter.com/CNN/status/989666306197737472?s=19
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 01:57
|
|
|
Even as someone who's concerned about the possibility of all of this being false hope and/or paving the way for the North to gradually intimidate the South into confederation on its terms, that was quite a moment.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 02:10
|
|
|
Tricky D posted:So what's the whole point of the test site collapse theory? To make Trump look bad in the weakest way possible? https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...m=.7be2597b1d88 The recent reporting isn't really accurate for the reasons Lewis is stating: One of the test cavities collapsed, which doesn't mean the test site is unusable, but it does mean that it's less usable and more at risk of containment failure. None of this is certain, but there are good reasons to think that it might be in bad shape and NK might not be giving up much by closing it.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 02:50
|
|
|
Now that I've thought about it more, I think the most likely outcome of Trump blustering out of a summit with Un and coming off as the unreasonable one of the two is the South continuing to negotiate with the North, and Trump granting the North an unprecedented opportunity to slide a wedge between us. If South Korea is vehemently opposed to the US attacking the North, it would seem to make our doing so a hell of a lot harder to justify internationally, and if the Koreas find a way to continue negotiating without us, it could open the way for the rest of the world to start loosening sanctions without us down the line.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 03:00
|
|
|
LOL watch some beef going on with NK and SK photographers here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUsumhWC7F4&t=10604s
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 03:02
|
|
|
Negrostrike posted:LOL watch some beef going on with NK and SK photographers here That is pretty funny. Also Kim jung-un seems to be doing a good job keeping pace with Moon, not bad for someone with his weight.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 03:18
|
|
|
Raenir Salazar posted:That is pretty funny. After they exchanged a few words at the beginning of the walk, I was wondering if Un realized he was going to get out of breath if they kept talking. A ~35 year old keeping pace with a senior citizen really isn't very impressive, but yeah he's pretty clearly not a small guy. I saw an analyst wondering if he was nervous because he seemed to be breathing heavily, but I think there's a simpler explanation.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 03:22
|
|
|
Please don't fat shame the Dear Leader.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 03:28
|
|
|
The Un is for "unfit."
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 03:32
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:Now that I've thought about it more, I think the most likely outcome of Trump blustering out of a summit with Un and coming off as the unreasonable one of the two is the South continuing to negotiate with the North, and Trump granting the North an unprecedented opportunity to slide a wedge between us. If South Korea is vehemently opposed to the US attacking the North, it would seem to make our doing so a hell of a lot harder to justify internationally, and if the Koreas find a way to continue negotiating without us, it could open the way for the rest of the world to start loosening sanctions without us down the line. hopefully. i hate the kims and the regime and i hope one day it implodes and takes un and his ilk to hell with it. but for now i hope SK and NK can deescalate tensions and maybe open even more dialogue between the two sides.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 03:56
|
|
|
The guy is fat but he’s not one of these bed bound blobs that gets a TV special, I think he can walk and talk to the elderly man. These peace talks are a good thing and I am happy they are happening. The most optimistic person probably didn’t expect to see things where they are now after how tense things were a few months ago.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 04:18
|
|
|
Burt Buckle posted:The guy is fat but he’s not one of these bed bound blobs that gets a TV special, I think he can walk and talk to the elderly man. He's been seen with a cane in the past, and there's been a lot of speculation that he has health issues going beyond just the weight, so his ease of mobility really isn't as obvious as you seem to think. Watching the video, he seemed in considerably worse shape than the active heavy people I know, though it always is possible he actually was nervous too.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 04:23
|
|
|
Sinteres posted:He's been seen with a cane in the past, and there's been a lot of speculation that he has health issues going beyond just the weight, so his ease of mobility really isn't as obvious as you seem to think. Watching the video, he seemed in considerably worse shape than the active heavy people I know, though it always is possible he actually was nervous too. i personaly would like to think he has enough access and poo poo to the outside world and he wants to actually be known for building bridges and trying to bring peace. it could all be a bullshit ploy and it probably is. but as long as trump doesnt get a loving nobel i am cool with peace.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 04:32
|
|
|
Dapper_Swindler posted:i personaly would like to think he has enough access and poo poo to the outside world and he wants to actually be known for building bridges and trying to bring peace. it could all be a bullshit ploy and it probably is. but as long as trump doesnt get a loving nobel i am cool with peace. Personally I would give Trump a nobel in exchange for permanent peace on the Korean peninsula
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 04:39
|
|
|
Where do people in this thread get their locally grown, Gluten free sources with regard to the state on the Korean Peninsula these days?
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 05:04
|
|
|
Trump has done more to dismantle the american empire than any other president by inadvertently ripping off the smiling, friendly foreign policy mask to reveal the warmonger behind it
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 05:38
|
|
|
McDeth posted:Where do people in this thread get their locally grown, Gluten free sources with regard to the state on the Korean Peninsula these days? I feel that CNN is the most trusted name in news with regards to the Korean Peninsula.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 05:41
|
|
|
Here is my home grown local Korea news: they have a chain of stores called “it’s skin”
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 05:43
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 22:03 |
|
|
Fojar38 posted:Personally I would give Trump a nobel in exchange for permanent peace on the Korean peninsula Yeah for all his many, many faults if Trump actually blunders his way into achieving legit peace on the Korean peninsula then I hate to say it but he would totally deserve a Nobel.
|
|
#
?
Apr 27, 2018 05:52
|
|