|
Given that Donald Trump has repeatedly denounced nation-building, and all information available about his foreign policy seems to support the notion that he is serious about rejecting it as a US policy, any kind of direct military intervention in Venezuela would seem extraordinarily unlikely in the foreseeable future. Barring a dramatic shift in rhetoric from this administration such a move can be discounted. This isn't to say a more aggressive effort at regime change isn't possible, but if the United States did so it would almost certainly involve infiltrating and coopting the NBAF. The history US backed coups does not support the notion that any government installed through one would be less corrupt or more interested in supporting democracy than one backed by another government. The "installation of a Chinese-backed authoritarian regime" seems like a very remote possibility assuming this means a regime that is more authoritarian and more heavily backed by the Chinese than the status quo. The Chinese government has been pretty consistent in its policy of not exporting revolution. Venezuela already owes China billions of dollars it is struggling to repay, and I see little reason to believe the Chinese would be eager to give more money to some hypothetical future regime that is even less stable and less solvent. Squalid fucked around with this message at 04:44 on May 12, 2018 |
#
?
May 12, 2018 04:41
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 03:22 |
|
|
15 million? Wow! That’s enough to feed 500,000 people for... ...checks math... About two months at $0.50 a day per person and no loss to transportation/distribution costs.
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 05:03
|
|
|
Squalid posted:Given that Donald Trump has repeatedly denounced nation-building, and all information available about his foreign policy seems to support the notion that he is serious about rejecting it as a US policy, any kind of direct military intervention in Venezuela would seem extraordinarily unlikely in the foreseeable future. Barring a dramatic shift in rhetoric from this administration such a move can be discounted. If anything it is more likely China is going to own whatever government that takes power because Russia/China already own a bunch of infrastructure and hold Venezuelan debt. Moreover, as you say, the US isn't interested in nation building and Venezuela really can't survive off the IMF. I wouldn't be surprised if both governments aren't already shopping around for a less embarrassing and costly replacement.
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 11:01
|
|
|
Arkane posted:Kinda sad that the US would need to get heavily involved. Colombia and Brazil should be on the front lines of this. The longer this goes on, the worse the endgame is going to be for everyone, especially the neighbors. Are you seriously suggesting they should intervene in Venezuela? Neither Brazil nor Colombia nor any other neighbor can afford a war with Venezuela, let alone would want that The only possibility of any of them maybe getting involved in an intervention is if the USA was leading it, and that ain't happening The USA have enough interventions ongoing and countries to bomb already and Venezuela ain't that high on their priorities. Plus, Venezuela is no Iraq and south america is no middle east For all its chronic problems and internal turmoils, S.A has been pretty stable for a long time and any kind of direct military intervention would surely destroy that and there is no profit on it for anyone who matters Elias_Maluco fucked around with this message at 12:43 on May 12, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 12:18
|
|
|
Elias_Maluco posted:The USA have enough interventions ongoing and countries to bomb already and Venezuela ain't that high on their priorities. Plus, Venezuela is no Iraq and south america is no middle east
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 13:28
|
|
|
Squalid posted:Given that Donald Trump has repeatedly denounced nation-building Does anyone remember the last guy who repeatedly denounced nation-building? How did that turn out.
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 13:31
|
|
|
Elias_Maluco posted:Are you seriously suggesting they should intervene in Venezuela? Neither Brazil nor Colombia nor any other neighbor can afford a war with Venezuela, let alone would want that There's a lot of action that countries can take before a military one, let alone a war. Secondly, there is power in numbers, so while it may be true that no one country can afford to take a hard line against Maduro, collectively it shouldn't be that difficult. The situation of tens of thousands of people pouring into Brazil and Colombia as a humanitarian crisis deepens on their doorstep seems a bit untenable.
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 16:06
|
|
|
Considering all the murder and general lawlessness going on in Venezuela, kind of surprised there isn't much in the way of armed rebellion.
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 17:14
|
|
|
Arkane posted:There's a lot of action that countries can take before a military one, let alone a war. Secondly, there is power in numbers, so while it may be true that no one country can afford to take a hard line against Maduro, collectively it shouldn't be that difficult. Wars are hard and dangerous and a huge waste of resources. No matter how bad the situation with the refugees get is still cheaper and safer to just deal with them, even if everybody joins, which never gonna happen anyway And speaking for Brazil, I don't think our army is even prepared for an adventure like that, besides the fact there's too much going own here anyway for anyone to even consider it All in all, no country in the region is affected enough by whats going on in Venezuela to really be compelled to do something about it, and who knows if that would not cause an even bigger mess
|
|
#
?
May 12, 2018 18:47
|
|
|
Why would anyone get militarily involved with Venezuela? All their problems are internal only. Why would a country risk the lives of its soldiers for no benefit to themselves? If the refugees become a problem the simple solution is tighter boarder controls. Unless Venezuela starts exporting terrorism the solution has to come from within.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2018 09:31
|
|
|
Cicero posted:Considering all the murder and general lawlessness going on in Venezuela, kind of surprised there isn't much in the way of armed rebellion. The armed forces, police, and colectivos armados are all on the side of the state and aligned with the party. They are some of the best people off in the country. The higher levels of these groups are making a lot of money and probably have very little incentive to stop what is, for them, a good thing.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2018 13:24
|
|
|
It's pretty cool that when things are bad in a country we can just idly wonder about if the US should invade and it's not that weird.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2018 13:47
|
|
|
Speaking of rebellions... Bellingcat published an article today on the death of Oscar Perez, the rebel cop who was killed during a raid on his safehouse in El Junquito on January 15 of this year. We used evidence available on social media to try to paint the fullest picture of what happened in El Junquito that day. While the evidence is not conclusive, it does strongly suggest that Perez his six companions were executed by security forces. We also had lots of excellent help from three Venezuelan partners: Efecto Cocuyo, Armando.Info, and El Pitazo. Forensic Architecture created a 3D model of the raid, which you can see in the link. Chuck Boone fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Feb 26, 2019 |
|
#
?
May 13, 2018 14:18
|
|
|
Flayer posted:Why would anyone get militarily involved with Venezuela? All their problems are internal only. Why would a country risk the lives of its soldiers for no benefit to themselves? If the refugees become a problem the simple solution is tighter boarder controls. This is tricky, per this AP article about Colombia increasingly bussing people escaping Venezuela back to the border, people that the UN are now classifying as refugees: https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/venezuela-exodus-swells-migrants-face-removal-55119198 quote:The United Nations' Refugee Agency recently issued guidance to regional governments explaining that many of the migrants likely qualify for international protection, and telling officials that Venezuelans should not be deported or forcibly returned.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2018 21:35
|
|
|
Its really lovely how the refugees are being treated, but considering how government services are collapsing under the flood of migrants, I can't help but feel for the colombian government trying to do whatever it can to gain control of the situation. If the migrant flood keeps accelerating, I don't know what is gonna happen. I mean, the military is starting to pack up and flee, and... Feinne posted:Wait, they're openly bringing in the colectivos to do a military job they don't have the manpower for? I wonder if the Colectivos will simply be made into the venezuelan military if too many people leave the military.
|
|
#
?
May 13, 2018 23:45
|
|
|
Pharohman777 posted:Its really lovely how the refugees are being treated, but considering how government services are collapsing under the flood of migrants, I can't help but feel for the colombian government trying to do whatever it can to gain control of the situation. It is not in Bogotá's best interests to deal callously with the refugee crisis. Bogotá is generally pretty allergic to bad international press and while I understand Santos wants to perform some limited "deportation" exercises, for the optics of it, Bogotá has always favored international optics over national optics and these deportations are likely to remain extremely limited in scope. In any case, Santos is playing the long game on this one. Venezuela was an important trading partner for Colombia and the economic collapse there has had a significant impact on the economy of Colombia. As such, Santos is eager for a quick regime change and jump start of the Venezuelan economy. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-election-santos/colombias-santos-sees-regime-change-soon-in-venezuela-idUSKBN1IC1TD Personally, I believe Santos knows something he's not entirely letting on, he's been way too eager to tell everyone that the situation will be resolved soon (which is unlike him.) It's possible there's already been an attempted infiltration of the NBAF.
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 00:05
|
|
|
I think that by the absurd logic of the venezuelan government, venezuelan refugees could be classified as traitors and shot on sight. Given how the government has acted regarding anyone who disagrees with its policies, people who disagree with the way of life the government insists on and leave for another country might be at risk at some point in the future. Given all the other absurdities the venezuelan government has done, the above line of thought seemed reasonable. At some point there will be reports of empty towns because everyone fled to other countries.
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 01:03
|
|
|
Pharohman777 posted:I think that by the absurd logic of the venezuelan government, venezuelan refugees could be classified as traitors and shot on sight. They might go after the Cuban pattern and call them gusanos. Coming to a tankie near you!
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 01:07
|
|
|
What's the deal with this latest warehouse seizure? http://www.albatv.org/Incautan-135-toneladas-de.html
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 06:27
|
|
|
Chuck Boone posted:Speaking of rebellions... I'm reading through it now, that's excellent work! AmericanBarbarian posted:What's the deal with this latest warehouse seizure? The government likes to make a big deal about seizing the occasional warehouse full of food. They say "See? There are no shortages. It's the shop owners that hoard this stuff so they can drive prices up as part of the economic war!". Of course, 135 tons of food is a lot, but that warehouse is near a place with a large street market, so it's only logical people would need to store their poo poo somewhere. According to the government, having an inventory is a crime.
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 12:02
|
|
|
holding inventory is a response to uncertainty in either or both of supply and demand. Like, it's easy to understand that if how long it takes to transport and what amounts you can get is subject to the vagaries of venezuelan roads, suppliers and general social upheaval, you the storeholder/wholesaler will err on the side of caution and make sure to hold a large margin of stock to be able to service your customers. Aditionally the demand can be very erratic because of the disruptions in the financial system. even if a buyer knows he will need certain goods and is theoretically able to pay, actually getting the payment in a form the seller wants is a huge ordeal, and very unpedictable as to when and if it will occur. all that said, another phenomenon that will occur is hoarding on all levels. It makes sense and is predictable. If the value of money is uncertain and subject to high inflation, better hold your capital in other things, any things, which will keep their value. Additionally, the supply uncertainty automatically makes people hoard things they don't want or need, in order to barter with them when some time in the future the goods they actually want becomes available. In the Soviet Union when there were shortages or supply disruptions of consumer goods it was very common for people to fill their dachas or spare rooms with all manner of construction materials or other storable goods, not because they planned to build something but because it might become handy as barter in the future. catfry fucked around with this message at 13:40 on May 14, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 13:37
|
|
|
Labradoodle posted:I'm reading through it now, that's excellent work! Yeah so realistically they just shut that street market down.
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 14:32
|
|
|
Hey dude where'd you get that 135 tons of.... never mind, we've got some generals to bribe, gently caress off. We're confiscating the warehouse and food, also the local market. *warehouse and market are never re-opened, food is sold by Army on black market*
|
|
#
?
May 14, 2018 16:25
|
|
|
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IYfgvS0FA7U
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2018 01:44
|
|
|
Here's a useful point of comparison, a typical supermarket receives 60-75 tons of food over the course of a month, in a country with well stocked supermarkets and no worries about supplies. So at most this "food hoard" would represent a few months of food at only a store or two. (Incidentally typical first world wastage from a store that size will be 3/4 to a full ton of food, much of which is unnecessary throwing out)
|
|
#
?
May 15, 2018 03:49
|
|
|
Venezuela political prison seized by inmates ahead of presidential election https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/17/venezuela-political-prison-seized-inmates-presidential-election?CMP=twt_a-world_b-gdnworld
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 13:35
|
|
|
If you haven't clicked on that Guardian linked and checked out some of the videos from the El Helicoide prison mutiny, make sure to do it. Be careful, though, because of them will be NMS since they show the results of the brutal beating that one of the political prisoners received at the hands of the SEBIN. One of the points not mentioned in the article is that there are anywhere between 300-400 prisoners in El Helicoide, and that many of them have release orders from courts that the SEBIN is simply ignoring. For example, in the video below, the man in the bright green shirt has a piece of paper attached to his chest. That piece of paper is his release order. Evidently, he's still in prison: https://twitter.com/maryorinmendez/status/996874067109085184 Here is a clip of the inmates trying to help Daniel Ceballos break out of his cell. Ceballos was the mayor of San Cristobal, Tachira and an opposition leader when he was arrested in 2014 for not crushing anti-government protests in his city (that's not a crime and it would have been impossible/illegal for him to have stopped the protests): https://twitter.com/maryorinmendez/status/996866123667787777 The SEBIN jail in El Helicoide is also know as La Tumba (The Tomb) because it's underground and hellish. As you can see in the video in the Guardian article, prisoners there are tortured and held indefinitely without trial. Human Rights Watch has lots of info on the torture to which the SEBIN submits prisoners.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 16:04
|
|
|
How the hell does that even happen, anyway? Is it just a setup by SEBIN as an excuse to assassinate all of them? Because I don't see under any circumstances how the official story (prisoner revolt and take control of the prison) would be true or even remotely feasible to have occurred in this particular instance. I will be shocked if there is not a slaughter in the coming hours although I suppose we might not hear anything about it until after Sunday's election is over.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 17:11
|
|
|
Mabye I'm missing something, but what in particular do you find so unbelievable about this? Situations of prisoners rioting and taking over the prison do happen (its happened at least once in Syria semi recently).
Ikasuhito fucked around with this message at 17:31 on May 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 17:26
|
|
|
Ikasuhito posted:Mabye I'm missing something, but what in particular do you find so unbelievable about this. Situations of prisoners rioting and taking over the prison do happen (its happened at least once in Syria). It used to happen quite frequently here in Brazil
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 17:27
|
|
|
Ikasuhito posted:Mabye I'm missing something, but what in particular do you find so unbelievable about this? Situations of prisoners rioting and taking over the prison do happen (its happened at least once in Syria semi recently). It's a political prison, none of the prisoners have gang connections and presumably they are not violent and are not likely to smuggle in weapons or start an armed uprising. So, given that presumably they did not smuggle in weapons, how are they going to be coordinated and overpower the guards and somehow take over the entire prison and keep more guards from coming in and instantly overwhelming them? It doesn't seem like they have hostages, and we know the Venezuelan government is not shy of killing everyone in such situations, although this would be more visible than Oscar Perez. So either they have weapons and are keeping everyone at bay, or they don't have weapons and ????. None of the articles seem to mention that they have significant numbers arms or that they have hostages. I mean I certainly believe they have the run of the prison at the moment, but I rather imagine that they were let to have run of the prison. SEBIN HQ is not going to be run by incompetent nincompoops like some prison in nowheresville Brazil. It'd be like the prisoners taking over Guantanamo Bay, or like that massive prison break in Kinshasa last year where like 150 guys with AK-47s and RPGs stormed DRC's number 1 prison to break out their cult leader.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 17:56
|
|
|
Saladman posted:It's a political prison, none of the prisoners have gang connections and presumably they are not violent and are not likely to smuggle in weapons or start an armed uprising. So, given that presumably they did not smuggle in weapons, how are they going to be coordinated and overpower the guards and somehow take over the entire prison and keep more guards from coming in and instantly overwhelming them? It doesn't seem like they have hostages, and we know the Venezuelan government is not shy of killing everyone in such situations, although this would be more visible than Oscar Perez. Apparently, not all the inmates are political prisoners and there are some run-of-the-mill criminals kept in the Helicoide as well. Another article I read mentioned some officers left a political prisoner's cell door open and regular inmates then attacked him, which detonated the 'take-over' (https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2018/05/16/gregory-sanabria-wounded-in-el-helicoide-other-political-prisoners-revolt/). My guess is they haven't stormed in to restore order yet because the situation became much more publicized than they expected, with so many famous political prisoners getting to send messages out of the Helicoide. Even in a jail run by the SEBIN, it doesn't surprise me they let ordinary inmates have control of the place since we're talking about Venezuela. The guards are probably paid off to turn a blind eye and they just focus on their 'important' political prisoners while they let everyone else do whatever they want.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 19:05
|
|
|
Saladman posted:How the hell does that even happen, anyway? Is it just a setup by SEBIN as an excuse to assassinate all of them? It's also important to know that we (or I, at least) don't know the exact layout of El Helicoide and La Tumba. It's possible that in order to take over the prison, all you'd have to do is block one or two doors to keep the authorities on the other side. This is all the more likely because La Tumba is located underground, so I imagine that it's only accessible by elevator/stairs. Also, La Tumba is home to about 300-400 prisoners and there are ~235 political prisoners in the country, which means that some prisoners are there for non-political crimes. It's also worth pointing out that some of the people in there are completely innocent of any crime (i.e., Joshua Holt), and others should have been released months or even years ago as per court orders.
|
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 19:09
|
|
|
The presidential election is set for tomorrow. Maduro just said in a Facebook Live event that he was certain that the voter turnout tomorrow would "surprise the world". There's been quite a lot of debate in Venezuela over the last few months on the question of whether or not it is worthwhile to vote. I find it shocking that this is even a question, given what happened on July 30 of last year. It is a fact that the Maduro regime faked the results of the July 30 Constituent Assembly election. By "faked" I mean that the regime made up the number of voters who cast ballots. We know this because the company that provided the voting machines for the election [url=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-vote-smartmatic/venezuelan-election-turnout-figures-manipulated-by-one-million-votes-election-company-idUSKBN1AI1KZsaid so in a press conference[/url], and because we have evidence in the form of the paper records that the regime itself prints. In short, the Constituent Assembly proved that the Maduro regime is not content to stick with intimidation and dirty tricks to win votes: it is willing and able to falsify the results of the election with no repercussion. That's not to say that the regime does not also resort to intimidation and dirty tricks still, though. El Nacional published and article today in which it revealed that 15 public sector workers were fired yesterday for refusing to attend Maduro's campaign rally on Thursday. In the same article, El Nacional quotes the head of the Coalicion Sindical Nacional (a labour union), who outlines some of the complaints that his office has received about threats that have been made by regime officials against public sector workers. The threats were made in order to coerce people into voting tomorrow. The head of the union, Manuel Rondon, said: quote:Employees have been told that if they do not vote for president Nicolas Maduro, they will not be allowed to enter [their workplaces] on Monday and they will not be paid social benefits. They've also been threatened with withholding [social benefits] and the CLAP [food subsidy]. This short clip was taken at Maduro's campaign rally in Caracas on Thursday, and features a very unwell Diego Maradona: https://twitter.com/Gbastidas/status/997184996589867008
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 01:48
|
|
|
The overweight dude doing a terrible twerk jiggle dance is Maradona?? Man he really let himself go in the past few years, apparently both mentally and physically. I get the reason for voting though. It’s hopeless but there are literally zero other options right now besides waiting to see how many new nadirs Venezuela can discover before it becomes tropical Mad Max. Nicolas Casey at the NYT had a depressing article about the election too: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/world/americas/venezuela-election-president-maduro-food.html?rref=collection%2Fbyline%2Fnicholas-casey I first started following this thread after the 2015 AN elections because I was hopeful for the country, and then doing a few months backpacking around Latin America, but at this point it’s kind of like watching a train wreck. I’m honestly surprised that there isn’t mass starvation yet, like Mao or Stalin style. Too many mangos and bitter casava grow naturally for that, I guess.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 09:52
|
|
|
Seems like the helicoide rebelion is over but nobody knows how or what happened to the inmates https://twitter.com/yamisaleh/status/998206609494040576
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 15:30
|
|
|
Cicero posted:Uhh you know how much oil is in Venezuela right? I agree that the US isn't going to intervene, but if you believe the US did before because of oil... Venezuela's oil is super heavy and not as valuable as people think it is - it has to be blended down for refining consumption most of the time and that is expensive. Curacao was used as a site to blend it down and that is gone for immediate future. This further discounts their crude value. What's really interesting is their refining capacity on Curacao (Isla) and their Paraguana complex -- they have an insane amount of capacity, Paraguana is 3rd largest refinery in world, but don't have personnel to run it (they keep fleeing country). They could fuel South America if they could keep it running. The world is short refining capacity because oil companies don't want to get locked into long term payments for building this poo poo if it all is replaced by renewables in next decade. So that capacity is valuable, especially post 2020 when Marine shipping sulfur specs change. Wouldn't be surprised if Russia/China get involved more if they can guarantee money somehow, Russia did some maneuvering to get a lien on Citgo assets in US so expect more of that. But to commandeer this poo poo would be insane. It's not like Iraq where you can just turn a well on and have millions of dollars. This takes infrastructure buildout in billions and thousands of skilled workers. this is way harder than Iraq. Also the marginal crude barrel now sits in the US with takeover of fracking -- these companies would be far better off investing more in drilling and export buildout in their own backyards and finding less dramatic excess refining capacity to export to -- say China or figuring out ways to better use gulf coast infrastructure. Brogeoisie fucked around with this message at 15:59 on May 20, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 15:43
|
|
|
Brogeoisie posted:Venezuela's oil is super heavy and not as valuable as people think it is - it has to be blended down for reining consumption most of the time and that is expensive. Eh depending on how it was maintained while it was running and how long it's been idle a lot of that equipment is probably too hosed to even use anymore.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 15:49
|
|
|
Feinne posted:Eh depending on how it was maintained while it was running and how long it's been idle a lot of that equipment is probably too hosed to even use anymore. yeah agreed - bigger point I'm trying to make is, Venezuela is hosed on even assets they have, there's no plunder argument to.be made like with Iraq, so no regime change will never happen here, it's a bundle of expensive problems. cardon and amuay are their most valuable assets and would probably take billions to fix up. Brogeoisie fucked around with this message at 16:22 on May 20, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 15:59
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 31, 2024 03:22 |
|
|
Brogeoisie posted:Venezuela's oil is super heavy and not as valuable as people think it is - it has to be blended down for reining consumption most of the time and that is expensive. Most of the refinery capacity for Venezuela's primary oil is in the US and a few other countries - its hardly not valuable but it is something only a limited amount of places can use directly. Venezuela doesn't have that much refinery capacity even if it were all in working order, and most of that would be for more typical world market crudes - still they used to be able to handle enough of their own oil to run bare minimum local use from it. Venezuela would need massive amounts of new refinery construction to handle all of its needs from its own oil, let alone mass supplying refined products to the region without all the Citgo refineries in America.
|
|
#
?
May 20, 2018 16:04
|
|