|
Needs more confirmation but lmao. https://twitter.com/Radio_FreeSyria/status/996732468664438784?s=20 Supposedly Suleimani has been in town trying to organize a coalition between Maliki, Abadi, Amiri, and probably some smaller factions like the PUK. This is the first report I've seen that claims Sadrists acknowledged he was there and told him to leave, and the only one claiming he's been run off. Story just came out though. I can't remember if I've had any run ins with the Baghdad post before.
|
#
?
May 16, 2018 13:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 22:29 |
|
|
Not the first time Suleimani's been in Baghdad getting a coalition together.
|
|
#
?
May 16, 2018 23:34
|
|
|
Pretty significant protests in Iran yesterday. Here's some video from before nightfall. https://twitter.com/rezaparchizadeh/status/996878946015895553?s=20 Overnight, there were continuing protests regarding protesters who had been arrested earlier in the day. Things got heated as more security forces showed up. Reports are that they fired on protesters, killing somewhere between 1 and 7 people. It turned into a riot after that, with government buildings and vehicles being set on fire. https://twitter.com/potkazar/status/997151401049575425?s=20 Volkerball fucked around with this message at 18:16 on May 17, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 17, 2018 18:10
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/m3takl_en/status/997357611627565059?s=20 Loujain Hathloul is one of the more prominent women's rights activists in the middle east so this isn't going to go over very well. She was arrested prior to MBS taking over for fighting for women's right to drive. I think the focus at this point is on the male guardianship system.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 09:12
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Pretty significant protests in Iran yesterday. Here's some video from before nightfall. What does that mean? What are they accusing the regime of? Spporting Gaza as in supporting the blockade and Israel's killing of unarmed civilians? That doesn't sound like something Iran of all countries is guilty of. Am I missing something?
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 09:20
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:New OPCW-FFM report on chemical attacks in Syria, this one is focused on the February chlorine attack in Saraqib: Hold on a sec, I thought you said sarin and chlorine don’t mix? Like, really, explosively don’t mix?
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 09:22
|
|
|
Torrannor posted:What does that mean? What are they accusing the regime of? Spporting Gaza as in supporting the blockade and Israel's killing of unarmed civilians? That doesn't sound like something Iran of all countries is guilty of. Am I missing something? I think it's about the hypocrisy of making a big show of criticizing Israel and sympathizing with the Palestinians for their suffering when they also respond to protests with arrests and violence.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 09:24
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:I think it's about the hypocrisy of making a big show of criticizing Israel and sympathizing with the Palestinians for their suffering when they also respond to protests with arrests and violence. Ah okay, that makes sense. Supporting Assad is just as hypocritical, of course.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 09:41
|
|
|
Yeah but that is a pretty rare thing to see Iranian protesters bring up.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 10:25
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:Hold on a sec, I thought you said sarin and chlorine don’t mix? Like, really, explosively don’t mix? Well you can drop them in separate shells.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 10:36
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:Hold on a sec, I thought you said sarin and chlorine don’t mix? Like, really, explosively don’t mix? They don't, I asked my chemistry friend, so there's probably some kind of external submunition hidden on the chlorine bombs. Most obvious spot would be between the cylinder and the nose cone.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 12:40
|
|
|
Does make me wonder what happens when the bomb goes off, though. Seems like there’d just be a big boom and they’d at least partially neutralise each other. The casings didn’t look all that scorched, did they?
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 13:21
|
|
|
Could it be some unique chemical that shares traits with both sarin and chlorine?
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 13:34
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Could it be some unique chemical that shares traits with both sarin and chlorine? That sounds chemically unlikely. Maybe they’re picking up organophosphate fertilisers used in the victims’ food?
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 13:43
|
|
|
Or maybe the paramilitary nutjobs gassing civilians aren't expert chemists and don't really care what interesting reactions mixing their chemical bombs might produce downrange.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 14:58
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:Hold on a sec, I thought you said sarin and chlorine don’t mix? Like, really, explosively don’t mix? I mention that in the post, every chemistry expert I spoke to seemed to think it would be an extremely bad idea, the sarin would be impure, so it would be a whole cocktail of chemicals interacting with chlorine gas under pressure. Keep in mind Sarin is a liquid, not a gas, so it's not just a matter of swapping one gas line with another when filling it up. Darth Walrus posted:Does make me wonder what happens when the bomb goes off, though. Seems like there’d just be a big boom and they’d at least partially neutralise each other. The casings didn’t look all that scorched, did they? As far as anyone can tell there's no explosive charge used to rupture the cylinders, it just relies on impact. Darth Walrus posted:That sounds chemically unlikely. Maybe they’re picking up organophosphate fertilisers used in the victims’ food? Dan Kaszeta wrote about Sarin byproducts in this piece, and these are the three products found in the Saraqib samples (MPA, IMPA, and DIMP) quote:In addition to the 12 samples where Sarin itself was found, there were a number of samples that contained either or both methylphosphonic acid (MPA) or isopropyl methylphosphonic acid (IMPA). The former is a generic degradation product of nerve agents, while the latter is a highly specific degradation product of Sarin. In other words, you really only see IMPA in situations where there is or was Sarin So it points pretty firmly to Sarin being present.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 15:55
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:I mention that in the post, every chemistry expert I spoke to seemed to think it would be an extremely bad idea, the sarin would be impure, so it would be a whole cocktail of chemicals interacting with chlorine gas under pressure. Keep in mind Sarin is a liquid, not a gas, so it's not just a matter of swapping one gas line with another when filling it up. As Wikipedia points out, there is no known commercial use for DIMP. Unless some insane person is fertilizing his fields with Sarin (or, I guess, with chemical waste from making Sarin), the only route to get it there is from a weapon. The likely munitions, from the OPCW report, burst open on impact from kinetic effects, not from an explosion. The tanks were, IIRC, 6mm thick steel walled. Drop from a height with liquid Cl2 inside. Liquid halogens and organophosphates sounds like it could go "strongly exothermic" but I'm not an expert on reaction kinetics of nerve gases... I really think I want to get involved in looking at this stuff more seriously. My chemical engineering degree is a couple decades old but this stuff is basic level stuff, and it is an affront to have people making trivially disprovable claims online.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 21:17
|
|
|
A note: the OPCW describes the containers as 100-120 litres, of typically used to hold liquified gases. The grass around one of the containers was brown or dry. I bet if you spilled liquified chlorine on grass it'd kill it. http://www.amazingrust.com/Experiments/how_to/Liquid_Cl2.html Vapor pressure of pure liquid chlorine at 70 F is like 83 psig. Propane tanks are good to way more than this (like 300 psig). If it was liquid chlorine: Density of liquid chlorine at 60 F is about 1.42 g /cc so 100 litres is like 142 kilos. Assume the tank is filled 80% liquid/ 20 gas like a propane tank, you're around 110 kilos of liquid chlorine. Molar weight of diatomic chlorine is 35.5 g/mol so that's 3100 moles. Using ideal gas law, at STP that will be 69500 litres of chlorine gas. It'll boil off, not explode... If you had just 100 litres of gas at 300 psig, that's like 20 atm. So 2000 litres of chlorine gas. Big difference. Maybe you could put liquid sarin in with liquid chlorine... I'll let someone else try it.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 21:58
|
|
|
No, I know these things are knocked open kinetically, but that still results in a lot of sarin suddenly getting exposed to a lot of chlorine. Which should cause a big boom. And yet, apparently no evidence of a boom was found.
|
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 23:00
|
|
|
What about a delayed release? Edit: Or a mechanism so one gets released from one compartment, then the other one releases on impact? RandomPauI fucked around with this message at 23:42 on May 18, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 18, 2018 23:34
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:No, I know these things are knocked open kinetically, but that still results in a lot of sarin suddenly getting exposed to a lot of chlorine. Which should cause a big boom. And yet, apparently no evidence of a boom was found.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 00:43
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/997604630795350017?s=20
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 04:24
|
|
|
Anbar and Kurdistan went heavily to small factional parties. Nineveh went to Abadi. Sadr was nowhere to be seen in these provinces. https://twitter.com/BaxtiyarGoran/status/997617869373542403?s=20 https://twitter.com/Tuairisceoir_/status/997665730781790208?s=20 So it was as I feared. Sadr only wooed Shia nationalists, most of whom have likely been following him all along. He didn't actually gain that many votes over previous elections. It appears low turnout was what made the difference. We'll see what happens I guess.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 07:55
|
|
|
Darth Walrus posted:No, I know these things are knocked open kinetically, but that still results in a lot of sarin suddenly getting exposed to a lot of chlorine. Which should cause a big boom. And yet, apparently no evidence of a boom was found. The lack of a perceived boom makes me think the chlorine was liquified with a vapor pressure of 80 psi, not compressed gas at 300 psi. But that's minor. I can't find yet anything good on the expected reaction of (liquid) sarin to liquid chlorine. I mean, hell, it might not react much.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 08:09
|
|
|
RandomPauI posted:What about a delayed release? The pics in the OPCW report show substantial mechanical deformation, but I am puzzled that traces of TNT were found on the second cylinder, making me think it went boom.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 08:12
|
|
|
I thought it was just one cylinder. If it's two cylinders, why couldn't one have chlorine and the other have sarin? To be more specific, one cylinder could explode on impact and the other could explode using a timed fuse. The one on a timed fuse could be used against second responders.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 08:43
|
|
|
Yeah it doesn't seem like Al-Sadr is such a commanding position anymore looking at the new results, and the leading coalition/party in Iraq doesn't get any special advantage like other parliamentary systems. I think the celebration from various corners was premature. Basically, at this point the question which "side" Abadi works with which they have more or less become far more balanced with the new vote totals. The new government is going to be decided with a series of long-back room deals. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 09:43 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 09:29
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Yeah it doesn't seem like Al-Sadr is such a commanding position anymore looking at the new results, and the leading coalition/party in Iraq doesn't get any special advantage like other parliamentary systems. I think the celebration from various corners was premature. The early reports of who won how many seats were pretty accurate, and those numbers represent a major shift in Iraqi politics. Previously, Abadi didn't have much of a choice. It took Sadr's supporters occupying the green zone just to get a reshuffling of his cabinet, when Abadi supported that move from the get go. Now the Iranians and Abadi both are going to be reliant on Sadr. That's going to be reflected in cabinet positions. And now Abadi can't play the victim. If Abadi sides with the Iranians on a controversial issue, he'll have to wear it, because he will have had a choice. The true colors of a lot of these guys are about to be exposed, to include Sadr. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 10:37 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 10:24
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:The early reports of who won how many seats were pretty accurate, and those numbers represent a major shift in Iraqi politics. Previously, Abadi didn't have much of a choice. It took Sadr's supporters occupying the green zone just to get a reshuffling of his cabinet, when Abadi supported that move from the get go. Now the Iranians and Abadi both are going to be reliant on Sadr. That's going to be reflected in cabinet positions. And now Abadi can't play the victim. If Abadi sides with the Iranians on a controversial issue, he'll have to wear it, because he will have had a choice. The true colors of a lot of these guys are about to be exposed, to include Sadr. They were accurate from the provinces announced, but not all of them were and so you can premature celebration over what is now looking like a mixed bag. As far as how reliant they will be on him depends on what type of coalition actually happens, and al-Sadr's influence is going to be pared by the influence of other groups like TaF. As for siding with the Iranians, it depends on the issue and how Abadi is able to sell it. The end it is going to be up to negotiation and probably some street turf wars over which side can get leverage over the other. (Also, I have to say that the Western press has been pretty celebratory before the actual full results were counted. It kind of looks ridiculous.)
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 10:45
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:They were accurate from the provinces announced, but not all of them were and so you can premature celebration over what is now looking like a mixed bag. Uh no, it was reported all throughout the 13th and 14th that Sadr had 54 seats which was the biggest share and that's exactly what he has. If anything, Abadi's numbers were over-reported in those early moments and Amiri's were under-reported, but Sadr's were right on the nose. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 11:07 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 11:05
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:They were accurate from the provinces announced, but not all of them were and so you can premature celebration over what is now looking like a mixed bag. Celebratory in what way? I've been a bit out of touch so I haven't seen much coverage.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 11:10
|
|
|
The first thing anyone posted about the Iraqi elections.Volkerball posted:Iraqi politics just got a lot more interesting. https://twitter.com/oxfordanalytica/status/997481743396626432?s=20 Lamestream media 
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 11:19
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Uh no, it was reported all throughout the 13th and 14th that Sadr had 54 seats which was the biggest share and that's exactly what he has. If anything, Abadi's numbers were over-reported in those early moments and Amiri's were under-reported, but Sadr's were right on the nose. Results from one coalition really don't mean much, it is when all the numbers come in that you actually know what it is happening especially in the Iraqi system which is based on large numbers of parties hashing out a government. It was jumping the gun. Also, I don't know what those tweets are supposed to prove?!? The final results look quite a bit different especially for Abadi. Count Roland posted:Celebratory in what way? I've been a bit out of touch so I haven't seen much coverage. Essentially that Sadr's bloc "won" which actually was premature without all the totals (even if he still got the most seats in the end...by 2) and also getting the most seats isn't anything special in an Iraqi election. The headline if anything is intentionally misleading since Abadi most likely will be the next PM and Sadr's influence may vary depending on negotiations. Also, most news stories I have seen off google news seem basically carbon copies of each other. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 11:41 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 11:39
|
|
|
The magic of modern satellite imagery, 24 hours after this report: https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/997433337328398336 We have satellite imagery showing the area damaged: https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/997786517320986625 Looks like it was a bunch of aircraft shelters and ammo storage in the area of the blast: https://twitter.com/QalaatAlMudiq/status/997596191184576513
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 11:45
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Results from one coalition really don't mean much, it is when all the numbers come in that you actually know what it is happening especially in the Iraqi system which is based on large numbers of parties hashing out a government. It was jumping the gun. Good thing I posted numbers from the 4 largest coalitions instead of just one then, huh. Including Maliki's 25 which is also right on the nose, they were incorrect about 5 seats out of 168 that went to the four largest coalitions, which means the earliest of the early reports were in the neighborhood of 99.97% accurate in their projected numbers. And here you are acting like they were a night and day difference. You're an idiot. But I'll help you out. The context you are missing that all the lamestream media pawns aren't is that Sadr was expected to come in 3rd by some distance. That's why it's significant. Not because they were imagining Sadr was going to pull a hundred million seats when it was all said and done.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 12:03
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:The magic of modern satellite imagery, 24 hours after this report: I'm guessing this was the Israelis blowing up more Iranian weapons?
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 12:14
|
|
|
Volkerball posted:Good thing I posted numbers from the 4 largest coalitions instead of just one then, huh. Including Maliki's 25 which is also right on the nose, they were incorrect about 5 seats out of 168 that went to the four largest coalitions, which means the earliest of the early reports were in the neighborhood of 99.97% accurate in their projected numbers. And here you are acting like they were a night and day difference. You're an idiot. But I'll help you out. The context you are missing that all the lamestream media pawns aren't is that Sadr was expected to come in 3rd by some distance. That's why it's significant. Not because they were imagining Sadr was going to pull a hundred million seats when it was all said and done. Obviously, those 5 seats actually matter, especially since TaF also increased their share, it changes the entire dynamic. Abadi and TaF gained from Maliki's losses. I am sorry your obvious gaslighting didn't work out. Yes, we know you loving hate Iran with a psychotic passion and almost every post you have ever done has been framed around that fact. It isn't some secret that no one has noticed, and why honestly I waited for the results to see how different they were than the narrative you were spinning (and guess what). We will actually see how happens in negotitations and see you actually gets leverage here. It is going to be a real scramble. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 12:46 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 12:39
|
|
|
Ardennes posted:Yeah it doesn't seem like Al-Sadr is such a commanding position anymore looking at the new results, and the leading coalition/party in Iraq doesn't get any special advantage like other parliamentary systems. I think the celebration from various corners was premature. What? There are some parliamentary systems where the leading party gets an advantage, mainly those using the horrible first past the post system. It's rare that proportional representation systems have this issue. Greece is an exception. How big of a loss can this even be for Iran? Many Iraqi Shiites will still look favorably to Iran, joining Shia militias or going to Syria to fight under Iranian coordination. The government in Baghdad will not oppose Tehran as much as Saddim did or the Us wishes it to. Iraq likely can't afford to stop the Iranians from crossing into Syria. It's still in flux, but I wouldn't call it a total catastrophe for Iran just yet.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 12:50
|
|
|
Torrannor posted:What? There are some parliamentary systems where the leading party gets an advantage, mainly those using the horrible first past the post system. It's rare that proportional representation systems have this issue. Greece is an exception. In Iraq, the leading party also doesn't necessarily get the first chance of forming a government. It is up to whoever can cobble up a coalition first (Italy is an example of this). Sadr doesn't have any special privilege at least constitutionally. quote:How big of a loss can this even be for Iran? Many Iraqi Shiites will still look favorably to Iran, joining Shia militias or going to Syria to fight under Iranian coordination. The government in Baghdad will not oppose Tehran as much as Saddim did or the Us wishes it to. Iraq likely can't afford to stop the Iranians from crossing into Syria. It's still in flux, but I wouldn't call it a total catastrophe for Iran just yet. I think there was some hope to break up the "Shia crescent" since Sadr was meeting with the Saudis and therefore Riyadh could finally get an advantage over the Iranians. I agree I don't know how close this is going to come fruition considering the mechanics at play. I think it is a stretch that al-Sadr can use his 54 seats to bully the rest of pro-Iranian parties at this point, and it is also a question how much opposing Iranian influence factor into negotiations compared to sundry coalition building.
|
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 13:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 24, 2024 22:29 |
|
|
Ardennes posted:Obviously, those 5 seats actually matter, especially since TaF also increased their share, it changes the entire dynamic. Abadi and TaF gained from Maliki's losses. I am sorry your obvious gaslighting didn't work out. You know those 5 seats made a huge difference to the point we couldn't even draw conclusions without knowing about them, but also we don't know anything yet because we don't know how the coalitions will shake out. One of these things is true at least. And it's not mutually exclusive with Sadr massively overperforming and gaining a lot of influence in Iraq politics as a result of this election. And learn numbers, fool. 25 is the same as 25 so there aren't any losses for Maliki over what was initially reported, and 54-47 isn't 2, so Sadr's lead over Amiri is more than that. Also, could you link an example of this supposed false narrative about the elections I was spreading? Volkerball fucked around with this message at 13:42 on May 19, 2018 |
|
#
?
May 19, 2018 13:30
|
|