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How many quarters after Q1 2016 till Marissa Mayer is unemployed?
1 or fewer
2
4
Her job is guaranteed; what are you even talking about?
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Jose Valasquez
Apr 8, 2005

Baronash posted:

Sure is good that technology is static and has never improved then, right?


Let's take this at face value. Sure, the easily automated stuff has already been automated, but now the technology has improved and you can begin to automate the stuff that was too complex for a phone tree or too frustrating for a consumer. As you pick off some of the low-hanging fruit in the "moderately difficult to automate" category, then you need fewer humans to handle what is left. This cycle repeats and repeats until you have automated away employees, then departments, and then (potentially) entire industries.

I think you're wildly optimistic about the timeline, but is a gradual replacement of jobs with automation inherently bad?

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Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Jose Valasquez posted:

I think you're wildly optimistic about the timeline, but is a gradual replacement of jobs with automation inherently bad?

In a society where you need a job to earn money, need money to buy food, and need food to not starve, yes.

Jose Valasquez
Apr 8, 2005

Baronash posted:

In a society where you need a job to earn money, need money to buy food, and need food to not starve, yes.

I guess we should stop all technological progress then :shrug:

Weatherman
Jul 30, 2003

WARBLEKLONK

Cicero posted:

Shitposting aside, that's a real thing that's gonna happen. Hell I think they're already doing it in Japan?

fake edit: yes - https://www.engadget.com/2017/08/29/robot-caregivers-are-saving-the-elderly-from-lives-of-loneliness/

I'm a page late but this is basically another colour of the "but I don't wanna talk to another human" issue. Japan doesn't have a labour shortage; it has a nationwide fear of letting in *shudders* foreigners on anything more than short, fixed-term visas. There are thousands of people in Thailand and the Philippines that could solve their aged-carer needs like *snaps fingers* but, y'know, they're the wrong kind of Asian for Glorious Nippon.

All AI and robot development here is done with the sole focus of "we've got to be able to cope with our shrinking population without having to let immigrants befoul our sacred shores".

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Jose Valasquez posted:

I guess we should stop all technological progress then :shrug:

Yes, this is the only solution.

Or, comedy option, we act like compassionate human beings and disassociate being employed from having the right to exist.

Jose Valasquez
Apr 8, 2005

Baronash posted:

Yes, this is the only solution.

Or, comedy option, we act like compassionate human beings and disassociate being employed from having the right to exist.

I mean, I agree with having a strong social safety net but that is kinda separate from whether or not technology should move forward. I don't think it is realistic to stop all innovation until the social safety net is fixed.

VideoGameVet
May 14, 2005

It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion. It is by the juice of Java that pedaling acquires speed, the teeth acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my bike in motion.

Jose Valasquez posted:

I mean, I agree with having a strong social safety net but that is kinda separate from whether or not technology should move forward. I don't think it is realistic to stop all innovation until the social safety net is fixed.

If ((basic_income) && (universal_healthcare) && (affordable _housing)) then technological_progress = A_Good_Thing;

Jose Valasquez
Apr 8, 2005

VideoGameVet posted:

If ((basic_income) && (universal_healthcare) && (affordable _housing)) then technological_progress = A_Good_Thing;

Technological progress creates jobs too. The call center jobs didn't exist 60 years ago but do now because of technological progress.

eschaton
Mar 7, 2007

Don't you just hate when you wind up in a store with people who are in a socioeconomic class that is pretty obviously about two levels lower than your own?

Jose Valasquez posted:

Technological progress creates jobs too. The call center jobs didn't exist 60 years ago but do now because of technological progress.

Is the world better off for those call center jobs though?

It depends heavily on what individual call centers are for. For example, telemarketing is cancer.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Weatherman posted:

All AI and robot development here is done with the sole focus of "we've got to be able to cope with our shrinking population without having to let immigrants befoul our sacred shores".

People have been saying this for a long time and it always seems weird, because like, there is truth to it that Japan has major issues with race and immigration, but at the same time it also always feels like a thing people say as a jealousy thing, like those stupid Japanese can't possibly be more advanced than us, so it must be because they are immoral. Then people finding one factor and saying "yes, see, it's that" and then hand waving every single kind of automation as "see, Japan is just racists, america could have improved robotic car manufacture in the 1980s and not have gotten so far behind but we are just too moral".

Like there is a definite thing where any time any country is more advanced in some field than the US you see people settling on some negative quality of that country and saying "oh yes, they aren't really more advanced than us, actually they are less advanced than us, America #1"

Weatherman
Jul 30, 2003

WARBLEKLONK

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

People have been saying this for a long time and it always seems weird, because like, there is truth to it that Japan has major issues with race and immigration, but at the same time it also always feels like a thing people say as a jealousy thing, like those stupid Japanese can't possibly be more advanced than us, so it must be because they are immoral. Then people finding one factor and saying "yes, see, it's that" and then hand waving every single kind of automation as "see, Japan is just racists, america could have improved robotic car manufacture in the 1980s and not have gotten so far behind but we are just too moral".

Like there is a definite thing where any time any country is more advanced in some field than the US you see people settling on some negative quality of that country and saying "oh yes, they aren't really more advanced than us, actually they are less advanced than us, America #1"

Dude I'm not American and I actually live here in Japan and consume the local media and Internet shitposts so you can take this weird viewpoint of yours and automate it.

I have a folder full of articles where (usually) balding old dudes are talking about the coming labour crunch and pivot seamlessly into "of course, immigration is one option but that brings with it <list of scary boogeyman scenarios that is longer than the rest of the article> and therefore robots are our only hope". I'm white though so I'm one of the "good" foreigners who gets a long-term visa, it's only those Asian ones we've got to keep out, why just last week I heard <made up anecdote>

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Weatherman posted:

Dude I'm not American and I actually live here in Japan and consume the local media and Internet shitposts so you can take this weird viewpoint of yours and automate it.

I have a folder full of articles where (usually) balding old dudes are talking about the coming labour crunch and pivot seamlessly into "of course, immigration is one option but that brings with it <list of scary boogeyman scenarios that is longer than the rest of the article> and therefore robots are our only hope". I'm white though so I'm one of the "good" foreigners who gets a long-term visa, it's only those Asian ones we've got to keep out, why just last week I heard <made up anecdote>

I mean, lots of countries are racist or xenophobic, lots of them don't become world class automation leaders. It seems like Japan was excelling at certain types of robotics and then used that for problems they wanted solved (good and bad) instead of some weird thing where the whole of Japan's technological progress was just racism.

Weatherman
Jul 30, 2003

WARBLEKLONK

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

I mean, lots of countries are racist or xenophobic, lots of them don't become world class automation leaders. It seems like Japan was excelling at certain types of robotics and then used that for problems they wanted solved (good and bad) instead of some weird thing where the whole of Japan's technological progress was just racism.

Ok I know you're owlofcreamcheese but where are you getting this from? I'm talking about current trends that have ramped up under the current PM and the current demographic situation. If you want to talk about historical racism then go find someone who's talking about it.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Weatherman posted:

Ok I know you're owlofcreamcheese but where are you getting this from? I'm talking about current trends that have ramped up under the current PM and the current demographic situation. If you want to talk about historical racism then go find someone who's talking about it.

The "Japan isn't really technologically advanced, they just hate foreigners" has been a trope for as long as Japan has been actually technologically advanced.

Unoriginal Name
Aug 1, 2006

by sebmojo

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

People have been saying this for a long time and it always seems weird, because like, there is truth to it that Japan has major issues with race and immigration, but at the same time it also always feels like a thing people say as a jealousy thing, like those stupid Japanese can't possibly be more advanced than us, so it must be because they are immoral. Then people finding one factor and saying "yes, see, it's that" and then hand waving every single kind of automation as "see, Japan is just racists, america could have improved robotic car manufacture in the 1980s and not have gotten so far behind but we are just too moral".

Like there is a definite thing where any time any country is more advanced in some field than the US you see people settling on some negative quality of that country and saying "oh yes, they aren't really more advanced than us, actually they are less advanced than us, America #1"

Hmmm, yes problems with racism and immigration and a desperate need to automate. That's sounds like a condition where America would compare favorably

Weatherman
Jul 30, 2003

WARBLEKLONK

Owlofcreamcheese posted:

The "Japan isn't really technologically advanced, they just hate foreigners" has been a trope for as long as Japan has been actually technologically advanced.

Oh my bad, I thought you were arguing the points made in this thread, not some other argument that only you are having. Carry on then.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Weatherman posted:

Oh my bad, I thought you were arguing the points made in this thread, not some other argument that only you are having. Carry on then.

I mean, are you new here? :v:

FBS
Apr 27, 2015

The real fun of living wisely is that you get to be smug about it.


Thou shalt not make a machine in the likeness of a human mind.

Owlofcreamcheese
May 22, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 9 years!
Buglord

Weatherman posted:

Oh my bad, I thought you were arguing the points made in this thread, not some other argument that only you are having. Carry on then.

You said all the ai research in Japan was focused on avoiding immigrants and that seems very extremely not the case.

Weatherman
Jul 30, 2003

WARBLEKLONK
Have there been any fishmech vs. OOCC rallies in this thread because I would fuckin' love to see one

Baronash
Feb 29, 2012

So what do you want to be called?

Jose Valasquez posted:

I mean, I agree with having a strong social safety net but that is kinda separate from whether or not technology should move forward. I don't think it is realistic to stop all innovation until the social safety net is fixed.

Nobody is advocating stopping technological progress, so I'm not sure why you're so obsessed with distilling everyone's argument down to that.

Kobayashi
Aug 13, 2004

by Nyc_Tattoo
I imagine two Google Duplexes.

Freakazoid_
Jul 5, 2013


Buglord

Jose Valasquez posted:

Technological progress creates jobs too. The call center jobs didn't exist 60 years ago but do now because of technological progress.

Technological progress has been breaking down middle class jobs into lower class ones since the 90's. Up to 47% of all lower class jobs could be eliminated in the next 15 years.

Systemic unemployment is an inevitability and a basic income will be needed to prevent suffering and death.

boner confessor
Apr 25, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Weatherman posted:

Have there been any fishmech vs. OOCC rallies in this thread because I would fuckin' love to see one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mpw_FB2QrjQ

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
I'm sadly disappointed that you didn't link one of the convos where they try to seduce one another.

RuanGacho
Jun 20, 2002

"You're gunna break it!"


Well I'm convinced they're both robots now.

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_H44u3mHqw

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

Kobayashi posted:

Depends on the situation but I get where you’re coming from. I wouldn’t want to “reserve online” if it worked the way Duplex was demoed.

lol imagine being so goony that scheduling appointments with a bored and frustrated call center drone is your daily dose of meaningful hu-man contact that cannot be substituted by robots

mandatory lesbian
Dec 18, 2012

Freakazoid_ posted:

Technological progress has been breaking down middle class jobs into lower class ones since the 90's. Up to 47% of all lower class jobs could be eliminated in the next 15 years.

Systemic unemployment is an inevitability and a basic income will be needed to prevent suffering and death.

Yeah that's not gonna happen, enjoy suffering and death!

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

mandatory lesbian posted:

suffering and death!

beats working in a call center tbh

mandatory lesbian
Dec 18, 2012
i worked in a call center and i can 100% say i'd rather have been talking to robots all day rather then people

Jose Valasquez
Apr 8, 2005

Baronash posted:

Nobody is advocating stopping technological progress, so I'm not sure why you're so obsessed with distilling everyone's argument down to that.

My point is all but the most trivial technological advances are going to cause the need for some job to change. Where do we draw the line on what is allowed to be developed? It seems like at the very least we would need to stop researching AI entirely.

Elias_Maluco
Aug 23, 2007
I need to sleep
After tens of thousands of pre-orders, 3D audio headphones startup Ossic disappears

https://techcrunch.com/2018/05/20/after-tens-of-thousands-of-pre-orders-high-end-3d-headphones-startup-ossic-disappears/

(they didint really "disappeared" , just declared they are shutting down and nobody will get a refund, blaming it on the fact nobody is really using VR)

woke kaczynski
Jan 23, 2015

How do you do, fellow antifa?



Fun Shoe
Nuke Silicon Valley

Wheany
Mar 17, 2006

Spinyahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

Doctor Rope
Agreed without clicking on the link

duz
Jul 11, 2005

Come on Ilhan, lets go bag us a shitpost


At least the scooters aren't the huge eye sores the dockless bicycles are. Usually, anyways.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


Heck Yes! Loam! posted:

I don't think AI is going anywhere beyond useful niche applications, but it's silly to dismiss how invention and discovery stack on each other.
When AI works, people just take it for granted, and in some cases forget that it's AI at all. Google Translate is AI, and that's hardly a niche application. Neither are self-driving cars -- I have issues with them, boy howdy -- but that's not a niche either. The fricking "AIs" in video games would have been groundbreaking in the 1990s; not the video imagery, but the capability of the game to provide a reasonably sophisticated opponent.

Basically, as AI solutions come into regular use, people forget that once they were unattainable ideas, bleeding-edge research tasks.

e: Re Japan, anybody remember the Third Wave of the 1980s, which we were assured meant the Japanese were doing software in an organized way and would soon eat all American software development's lunch?

Arsenic Lupin fucked around with this message at 16:27 on May 21, 2018

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.
Electric scooters are great. I mean I haven't used them but from an urbanist perspective, new convenient ways to get around that are not-cars are a great thing.

Dinosaurtrain
Mar 7, 2018

by R. Guyovich
Nice to see all you AI snake oil peddlers are supportive of universal basic income as well!

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Elias_Maluco
Aug 23, 2007
I need to sleep
When I read about electric scootersit was seems like a cool idea that would never work down here in the third world (they would get all stolen in the 1# day)

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