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This is honestly an embarrassing gently caress up not just for Trump but the US as a whole. A big part of US strategy was trying to portray the North as completely unreasonable, and the US can't even make it to a summit. I wonder if the South is going to be just forced to move forward on bilateral discussions, probably not with complete disarmament.
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May 24, 2018 17:03
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"If I arbitrarily decide to drag Japan and South Korea into a war in which their capitals would be nuclear targets, they're loving paying for it." https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/999680659789615104
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May 24, 2018 17:15
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https://twitter.com/politiCOHEN_/status/999655197675806721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.somethingawful.com%2F Looks like North Korea officals were caught off guard as well.
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May 24, 2018 17:20
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OhFunny posted:https://twitter.com/politiCOHEN_/status/999655197675806721?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforums.somethingawful.com%2F this'll end well
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May 24, 2018 17:20
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https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/999682970180046848
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May 24, 2018 17:21
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Good thing he announced the pull-out while the foreign journalists are still in NK too.
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May 24, 2018 17:23
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90% chance this still means "GIVE YOUR NUKES UP RIGHT NOW, NO WAITING PUT EM ALL ON A TRAIN AND DRIVE EM OUT NOW"
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May 24, 2018 17:24
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sexpig by night posted:90% chance this still means "GIVE YOUR NUKES UP RIGHT NOW, NO WAITING PUT EM ALL ON A TRAIN AND DRIVE EM OUT NOW" Essentially the are demanding capitulation, more or less their demands to Iran.
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May 24, 2018 17:36
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/999690407897378817
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May 24, 2018 17:37
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Honestly the US doesn’t need this summit other than for Trump’s ego so the decision to step out of it is a good one. Kim was playing Trump like a piano and this at least put a stop to that game.
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May 24, 2018 17:39
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https://twitter.com/nataliewsj/status/999672661130260480 https://twitter.com/johncarlbaker/status/999673816912678912 https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/999665002272448512 https://twitter.com/adamjohnsonNYC/status/999666754367434752 https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/999657447517114368 Red and Black fucked around with this message at 17:46 on May 24, 2018 |
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May 24, 2018 17:40
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I think peace talks were good, but planning a meeting between prinicipals as the first step really was a terrible idea from the start, even aside from one of them being Trump. I think diplomacy is important enough to risk "elevating" someone like Kim Jong Un (and yes, it really is a meaningful concession since it's been a key North Korean goal for decades), but doing so before working out any kind of realistic framework for what a deal might look like was dumb. That doesn't mean every point needed to be figured out ahead of time, but maybe even just getting on the same page about what the definition of denuclearization is would have been a good idea. IMO a bad summit really is worse than no summit, but obviously a good goal to work toward in the future would be to have a good summit.
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May 24, 2018 17:45
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Sinteres posted:I think peace talks were good, but planning a meeting between prinicipals as the first step really was a terrible idea from the start, even aside from one of them being Trump. I think diplomacy is important enough to risk "elevating" someone like Kim Jong Un (and yes, it really is a meaningful concession since it's been a key North Korean goal for decades), but doing so before working out any kind of realistic framework for what a deal might look like was dumb. That doesn't mean every point needed to be figured out ahead of time, but maybe even just getting on the same page about what the definition of denuclearization is would have been a good idea. IMO a bad summit really is worse than no summit, but obviously a good goal to work toward in the future would be to have a good summit. I agree with all of this. This summit was flawed from the start. Now it goes back to the status quo which all things considered is not he worst of all possible outcomes.
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May 24, 2018 17:51
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Eh, I don't think it is possible to fully reset the situation, North Korea has played this pretty well and seems reasonable and to be honest, I think Moon may try to get at least some type of agreement. I do think the US essentially "lost" at least its previous strategy is no longer viable, since now North Korea is clearly no longer fully a pariah state in terms of perception.
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May 24, 2018 17:55
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Ardennes posted:Eh, I don't think it is possible to fully reset the situation, North Korea has played this pretty well and seems reasonable and to be honest, I think Moon may try to get at least some type of agreement. I think it will just renter the status quo. This has happened a bunch of times in the past and each time it just goes back to the US waiting for NK to collapse and NK going back to nuclear blackmail.
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May 24, 2018 17:59
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Vladimir Putin posted:I think it will just renter the status quo. This has happened a bunch of times in the past and each time it just goes back to the US waiting for NK to collapse and NK going back to nuclear blackmail. The problem is Trump still scared the poo poo out of South Korea by threatening war in the first place, and then proved himself unreliable with how he handled the negotiations. I think cancelling the summit was a good thing given what a trainwreck it was shaping up to be, but I don't think we can unring the bell of loving it up. That doesn't mean South Korea's going to throw us off the peninsula tomorrow, or that everyone in South Korea is going to embrace juche, but Trump is pretty clearly making South Korea at least have to consider what a post-American future might look like.
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May 24, 2018 18:02
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Vladimir Putin posted:I think it will just renter the status quo. This has happened a bunch of times in the past and each time it just goes back to the US waiting for NK to collapse and NK going back to nuclear blackmail. It is a big difference we can't even make it to a summit, it is clear we don't really have any actual plan for peace, and China isn't going to let a good opportunity go to waste. It is very hard to spin it the US is actually being reasonable. It doesn't seem like the North Korean economy is going to collapse, and obviously, their nukes aren't going to disappear. If anything the status quo already changed, and we are making it worse by pretending it hasn't. (Also if the summit has gone ahead, it probably would have just collapsed under fundamental disagreement.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 18:09 on May 24, 2018 |
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May 24, 2018 18:05
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Sinteres posted:The problem is Trump still scared the poo poo out of South Korea by threatening war in the first place, and then proved himself unreliable with how he handled the negotiations. I think cancelling the summit was a good thing given what a trainwreck it was shaping up to be, but I don't think we can unring the bell of loving it up. That doesn't mean South Korea's going to throw us off the peninsula tomorrow, or that everyone in South Korea is going to embrace juche, but Trump is pretty clearly making South Korea at least have to consider what a post-American future might look like. None of this changes the strategic picture though. NK won’t initiate an attack on SK unless it wants to be destroyed by a massive counter attack. Nor will it initiate a nuke launch at SK, Japan, or US because of fear of overwhelming nuclear destruction by the US. That’s really the borders of this game. So it’s going to go back to the US waiting for NK to starve to death and NK trying stuff to get out of that.
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May 24, 2018 18:08
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Ardennes posted:Eh, I don't think it is possible to fully reset the situation, North Korea has played this pretty well and seems reasonable and to be honest, I think Moon may try to get at least some type of agreement. yea this is the problem. We DIDN'T go back to the status quo, North Korea has even in the very least charitable reading of things been making a show of wanting to move forward and Moon possibly just had what amounts to his political life's work upended by Trump with apparently no real warning. We've lost really badly because now the best case scenario is a joint Koreas/Japan/maybe China unity team freezes the crazy idiot in America out to carry on.
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May 24, 2018 18:14
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Vladimir Putin posted:None of this changes the strategic picture though. NK won’t initiate an attack on SK unless it wants to be destroyed by a massive counter attack. Nor will it initiate a nuke launch at SK, Japan, or US because of fear of overwhelming nuclear destruction by the US. That’s really the borders of this game. So it’s going to go back to the US waiting for NK to starve to death and NK trying stuff to get out of that. If South Korea goes on to make their own deal with the North, and the region starts seeing China as a more honest broker than the US, that could lead to strategic changes. I don't think all the damage is irreversible yet, but Trump is consistently doing whatever he wants in the moment without consulting with our allies, and in the long run that provides incentives for them to find alternatives to being utterly dependent on us. Moon's arguably the most dovish leader South Korea's ever had, and he's empowered to work with the North specifically because Trump scared Moon's voters into being more afraid of him than they are of Kim. That doesn't mean the entire region is going to be reshaped tomorrow, but just shrugging and assuming everything's going to stay the same forever doesn't seem like a safe bet to me.
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May 24, 2018 18:14
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Ardennes posted:It is a big difference we can't even make it to a summit, it is clear we don't really have any actual plan for peace, and China isn't going to let a good opportunity go to waste. It is very hard to spin it the US is actually being reasonable. I don’t think another summit out of many that have failed is going to move the needle. Yes I agree that if the summit went ahead odds are that it would have collapsed just like the others are high. China don’t give a poo poo unless the US engages and with it the real possibility of a shift in events. China is the same place as US because they don’t want some crazy poo poo happening so they just leave everything where it is and just wait. There is a plan for peace and I personally think it’s the best long term outcome. And that is reunification to one Korea without the Kim family. Whatever happens to the Kim family is of no consequence. If China wants to guarantee their safety go for it. And the best way to achieve this again, is just keep the status quo. SK gets richer every year and NK gets more unstable and more desperate. Meanwhile SK/US lose nothing by waiting. If SK wants to circumvent this pathway and sue for peace and ensure Kim and NK exist as a separate state indefinitely its their right but they deserve every they get it they go for that outcome.
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May 24, 2018 18:16
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sexpig by night posted:yea this is the problem. We DIDN'T go back to the status quo, North Korea has even in the very least charitable reading of things been making a show of wanting to move forward and Moon possibly just had what amounts to his political life's work upended by Trump with apparently no real warning. We've lost really badly because now the best case scenario is a joint Koreas/Japan/maybe China unity team freezes the crazy idiot in America out to carry on. Moon hosed this whole thing by agreeing to this clusterfuck of a summit. He should have pulled the brakes on this a long time ago. Or at least managed expectations better.
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May 24, 2018 18:17
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Vladimir Putin posted:Moon hosed this whole thing by agreeing to this clusterfuck of a summit. He should have pulled the brakes on this a long time ago. Or at least managed expectations better. Moon has always had pretty clear and managed expectations though? When did he set the bar further than 'I'd like to work to ending the war and working to a better situation for diplomacy' which, yea, most Koreans on both sides of the DMZ would like that very much.
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May 24, 2018 18:23
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sexpig by night posted:Moon has always had pretty clear and managed expectations though? When did he set the bar further than 'I'd like to work to ending the war and working to a better situation for diplomacy' which, yea, most Koreans on both sides of the DMZ would like that very much. He told Trump that NK was willing to commit to denuclearisation without explaining to Trump what they actually meant with that.
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May 24, 2018 18:30
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sexpig by night posted:Moon has always had pretty clear and managed expectations though? When did he set the bar further than 'I'd like to work to ending the war and working to a better situation for diplomacy' which, yea, most Koreans on both sides of the DMZ would like that very much. How did it get it out that NK nuclear disarmament was on the table in initial NK/SK talks without SK mitigating that somehow? That got everyone’s hopes up and the US idiot administration got pulled in because of that. I think Moon may have even purposefully let that fly to pull the US into negotiations. Which oh well now they collapsed and he lost a high stakes game that he could have controlled better. Also how did he let a potential NK/US summit fly in intial negotiations without working to set the groundwork for that? It’s like he was gambling for a 1% outcome and look now here we are. I don’t feel bad for Moon at all.
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May 24, 2018 18:30
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Moon almost certainly deliberately misled Trump to get the summit, but he succeeded in creating a better bilateral relationship with the North, so maybe he's happy with what's happened even with the cancellation.  If nothing else, the proposed summit bought time in which Trump wasn't openly sabotaging Moon's own peace efforts. It's still fair to question whether he's a peacemaker whose efforts will be met in good faith or if he'll just prove to be a useful idiot, but it's too early to say he's been a failure.
Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:36 on May 24, 2018 |
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May 24, 2018 18:34
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Sinteres posted:Moon almost certainly deliberately misled Trump to get the summit, but he succeeded in creating a better bilateral relationship with the North, so maybe he's happy with what's happened even with the cancellation. I hope that USB has spyware on it so at least he gets something out of this.
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May 24, 2018 18:35
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Confusion posted:He told Trump that NK was willing to commit to denuclearisation without explaining to Trump what they actually meant with that. I 100% believe he told Trump what that meant and Trump didn't care
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May 24, 2018 18:46
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May 24, 2018 18:57
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Kim wasn’t going to go for reunification like it depicts in that paper with no borders.
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May 24, 2018 19:03
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Who the gently caress says “palsy-walsy” This isn’t 1948 when you and your Boomer schoolmates were playing stickball on the playground or whatever the gently caress is happening here
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May 24, 2018 19:26
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https://twitter.com/FrankJannuzi/status/999677158808211456 https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/999681526139932672 https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/999657902611709952 https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/999733410871566339 Red and Black fucked around with this message at 21:15 on May 24, 2018 |
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May 24, 2018 19:42
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You know he always spews this poo poo when talking about North Korea, right? I doubt NK is going to be testing missiles again the next day, since they want the Kim regime to last forever. The worst, I believe, is that they'll put out a really nasty statement Honestly, not having a summit is probably for the best. Not informing our allies about this, on the other hand...
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May 24, 2018 22:47
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Cross posting from Trump thread https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/999779929318293504
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May 24, 2018 23:36
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Vladimir Putin posted:I don’t think another summit out of many that have failed is going to move the needle. Yes I agree that if the summit went ahead odds are that it would have collapsed just like the others are high. China don’t give a poo poo unless the US engages and with it the real possibility of a shift in events. China is the same place as US because they don’t want some crazy poo poo happening so they just leave everything where it is and just wait. by all accounts dprk food security has been stable for years and the economy is growing at a faster rate than the eurozone. this idea the dprk is just limping along needs to go away. it hasn't been true since the 1990s or early 2000s at the latest
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May 24, 2018 23:42
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Willo567 posted:Cross posting from Trump thread just for context is this from the state media thing just put out saying 'you hosed up but we'll still talk with you if you're nice' or something more meaty?
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May 24, 2018 23:48
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The story is further fleshed out here https://twitter.com/YonhapNews/status/999786102520074240 Also, new Shorrock article is out in the Nation https://twitter.com/TimothyS/status/999785265362276352
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May 25, 2018 00:10
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R. Guyovich posted:by all accounts dprk food security has been stable for years and the economy is growing at a faster rate than the eurozone. I'd love to hear about the completely reliable data being used in this assessment.
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May 25, 2018 00:18
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I have no doubt that North Korea, a country that has spent 20 years recovering from near total collapse of society and economy, can post better percentage growth figures than 20 years of the Eurozone which started off rather well off and has mostly been stable ever since. It's also not a very impressive figure for that reason.
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May 25, 2018 00:21
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