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The Euro being run for German interests isn't good for the Southern economies, but its not accurate to blame it for all their ills. Italy was a corrupt, inefficient, badly run, in debt, economic mess long before the Euro and would be as such after any Euro too.
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Jun 2, 2018 12:07
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GaussianCopula posted:It's this great conspiracy theory that Germany forced the Euro on the EU to subjugate all of Europe economically, because as everyone knows, having a weak currency is what everyone wants... Of course people binged on cheap credit, that's the whole point of making credit cheap. People respond to incentives, whether it's Dutch, Irish, Spanish or American homebuyers taking advantage of cheap financing for their mortgages, banks, or local or national governments finding ways to buy the favour of voters with borrowed money. Make money cheap and people will borrow more money. You can yell at them for doing so but that's about as useful as yelling at the sun for coming up in the East. So, as the cliché goes, it's the job of the central bank to take away the punch bowl when the party's really getting started. But the ECB never did (probaby because exporting countries need people binging on credit abroad to sell stuff to when they fail to sufficiently stimulate domestic demand. And obviously, these exporting countries making a lot of money then better hope that its financial institutions are smart enough to lend the money coming in responsibly.....). What is worse though, the combination of cheap credit, insufficient policing of the eurozone , and its incomplete institutional structure caused the corruption problem to become worse rather than better (academic journal link, I've saved a copy for anyone who's interested). Politicians don't do reforms unless forced to (e.g. Germany embarked on the Hartz IV reforms also only after it got into economic trouble, not before), and cheap money takes away all the incentives. Similarly, it's only when interest rates rise that you find out which banks are poorly run and which ones well. So you could point to all the money saved on interest by all the EMU states in the periphery and say that the euro was beneficial for them, but at the same time the introduction of the euro was a poisoned chalice that stopped things from becoming better in the long run.
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Jun 2, 2018 12:34
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Pluskut Tukker posted:Of course people binged on cheap credit, that's the whole point of making credit cheap. People respond to incentives, whether it's Dutch, Irish, Spanish or American homebuyers taking advantage of cheap financing for their mortgages, banks, or local or national governments finding ways to buy the favour of voters with borrowed money. Make money cheap and people will borrow more money. You can yell at them for doing so but that's about as useful as yelling at the sun for coming up in the East. If only there was a country that had a finance minister that was able to say "nein" to cheap new debt and instead presented a balanced budget, but I guess that is just an utopian fantasy because surely, no politician could be principled enough to be the rock on which an entire countries fiscal policy is build. Pluskut Tukker posted:So, as the cliché goes, it's the job of the central bank to take away the punch bowl when the party's really getting started. But the ECB never did (probaby because exporting countries need people binging on credit abroad to sell stuff to when they fail to sufficiently stimulate domestic demand. And obviously, these exporting countries making a lot of money then better hope that its financial institutions are smart enough to lend the money coming in responsibly.....). Looking at the GFC this is exactly what happened. Interest rates rose, which revealed shitloads of bad investments, mostly in housing, and everyone got a really bad headache. Now the difference was that the Club Med's business model was to take cheap credit to fuel a housing bubble, but they never had the efficient 21st century administration and economy to thrive without it, which is why their headache turned into cancer while Northern European countries recovered relatively fast. Now the Euro is designed to simply be a hard currency. You have to adapt your fiscal/economic policy to that fact, but it is not by itself something evil or malicious, it just means that a certain set of tools is not available to your country in turn for certain other benefits (e.g. cheaper credit). As for the paper you linked: I totally agree that we need improved monitoring and sanctioning for the Euro to work - the EC under Juncker failed.
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Jun 2, 2018 12:51
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GaussianCopula posted:If only there was a country that had a finance minister that was able to say "nein" to cheap new debt and instead presented a balanced budget, but I guess that is just an utopian fantasy because surely, no politician could be principled enough to be the rock on which an entire countries fiscal policy is build. whenever someone says something even hinting at that, people start screaming venezuela/kuba/north korea at the top of their lungs
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Jun 2, 2018 12:55
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GC, what do you think happens to the Schwarze Null if other countries stopped borrowing money to pay for German products?
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Jun 2, 2018 13:02
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Orange Devil posted:GC, what do you think happens to the Schwarze Null if other countries stopped borrowing money to pay for German products? It might shock you but export surpluses mean that there is less money in Germany, because the surplus has to be balanced by capital outflows.
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Jun 2, 2018 13:05
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When we tried to put the trosts and communists in power, you know, the guys that have a grand total of 0 scandals of corruption and clientelism on the governing coalition, and have in their electoral programs the most comprehensive and harshests measures against corruption,both merkel and schlaube tripped over themselves supporting the center right dickwads that have over 9000 scandals, while going "thats a pretty anemic economic recovery you've got going there, it would be a shame if anything happened to it." Thanks for the moral virtue, germany!
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Jun 2, 2018 13:06
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GaussianCopula posted:Now the difference was that the Club Med's business model was to take cheap credit to fuel a housing bubble, but they never had the efficient 21st century administration and economy to thrive without it, which is why their headache turned into cancer while Northern European countries recovered relatively fast. Here you are confusing cause and effect; there would not have been a housing bubble without EMU convergence and adoption of the euro, just like corruption would likely have stayed lower without euro adoption. The housing bubble could also have been popped sooner if the ECB had raised interest rates instead of keeping them low to support the sluggish German and French economies. But these are all things we learned after the fact; prior to euro adoption most people were concerned about whether EMU was an optimum currency area, and how it would cope in the absence of fiscal federalism. GaussianCopula posted:It might shock you but export surpluses mean that there is less money in Germany, because the surplus has to be balanced by capital outflows. In which case, a wise and principled finance minister might take steps to reduce that surplus by increasing government spending and trying to find ways to cause wages to rise. This way, a country's financial system, its banks, mortgage banks and Landesbanken, might do less stupid lending in US subprime CDOs, Irish banks, Spanish cajas andGreek government bonds, and not have to be rescued from their blunders by imposing the losses that would have resulted from their stupidity and incompetence on the debtors instead.
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Jun 2, 2018 13:30
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Pluskut Tukker posted:In which case, a wise and principled finance minister might take steps to reduce that surplus by increasing government spending and trying to find ways to cause wages to rise. This way, a country's financial system, its banks, mortgage banks and Landesbanken, might do less stupid lending in US subprime CDOs, Irish banks, Spanish cajas andGreek government bonds, and not have to be rescued from their blunders by imposing the losses that would have resulted from their stupidity and incompetence on the debtors instead. I totally agree that the German finance ministers between 1998 and 2009 were incompetent fools.
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Jun 2, 2018 13:34
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My Norwegian friend told me Denmark and Danish culture is the laughing stock among scandinavian countries, basically a ridiculous, provincial place where they speak a silly language. Is this true?
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Jun 2, 2018 13:39
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Shibawanko posted:My Norwegian friend told me Denmark and Danish culture is the laughing stock among scandinavian countries, basically a ridiculous, provincial place where they speak a silly language. Is this true? 100% true
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Jun 2, 2018 13:42
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GaussianCopula posted:I totally agree that the German finance ministers between 1998 and 2009 were incompetent fools. You're still running a surplus. Are you sure the proceeds of that surplus are being invested wisely?
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Jun 2, 2018 14:13
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It's good that rightwingers lack the capacity for congitive dissonance, because otherwise they might find it hard to keep insisting both that economics is an actual science with hard, immutable laws and that people are lazy and immoral when they behave according to said laws.
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Jun 2, 2018 14:45
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Shibawanko posted:My Norwegian friend told me Denmark and Danish culture is the laughing stock among scandinavian countries, basically a ridiculous, provincial place where they speak a silly language. Is this true? Yes. Norway too, with added nouveau riche oil money.
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Jun 2, 2018 16:44
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everybody laughs at evrybody tbf. Sweden is generally hated and finland is seen as a lesser state.
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Jun 2, 2018 16:51
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Fox Cunning posted:Yes. Norway too, with added nouveau riche oil money. Wild Horses posted:everybody laughs at evrybody tbf. Sweden is generally hated and finland is seen as a lesser state.
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Jun 2, 2018 16:54
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Blut posted:The Euro being run for German interests isn't good for the Southern economies, but its not accurate to blame it for all their ills. Italy was a corrupt, inefficient, badly run, in debt, economic mess long before the Euro and would be as such after any Euro too. Italy has always had corruption but budget deficits to fund your welfare state is fine. Less fine when you don't control your own currency and the people who do prescribe austerity. The fact that austerity not only does not work, but makes your economic situation even worse and leads to malaise, unemployment, less money in the hands of people to jumpstart your economy again is the fundamental reason why anti-EU parties are currently in power in Italy and will rise to dominance in other places. Blinkered German morons want a common market and currency but are unwilling to make fiscal concessions to the reality that some countries are going to run deficits due trade imbalance; this is going to be the end result.
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Jun 2, 2018 17:23
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tekz posted:Italy has always had corruption but budget deficits to fund your welfare state is fine. Less fine when you don't control your own currency and the people who do prescribe austerity. The fact that austerity not only does not work, but makes your economic situation even worse and leads to malaise, unemployment, less money in the hands of people to jumpstart your economy again is the fundamental reason why anti-EU parties are currently in power in Italy and will rise to dominance in other places. Blinkered German morons want a common market and currency but are unwilling to make fiscal concessions to the reality that some countries are going to run deficits due trade imbalance; this is going to be the end result. The trade imbalances are a symptom of some economies being mich stronger not the cause. To use a dark soul phrase as advice to the Club Med: Git gud
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Jun 2, 2018 19:12
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GaussianCopula posted:
how
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Jun 2, 2018 19:13
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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GaussianCopula posted:The trade imbalances are a symptom of some economies being mich stronger not the cause. Oh GC you're so close to actually getting fundamental economics, now consider how this pans out when the stronger and weaker economy is not a currency union. Give it a consideration, what happens with the values of the respective currencies when one exports more than the others.
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Jun 2, 2018 19:16
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Aryan blood
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Jun 2, 2018 20:24
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Why are there so many Nazis in this thread you should run them out.
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Jun 2, 2018 20:28
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GaussianCopula posted:The trade imbalances are a symptom of some economies being mich stronger not the cause. to be honest you having a video gamer's understanding of issues is probably the most accurate portrayal of your particular ideology's worldview
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Jun 2, 2018 20:41
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Love to use video game phrases when talking about serious issues and then also love to awkwardly point out that it is a video game phrase.
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Jun 2, 2018 23:13
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Italy’s had a primary budget surplus for like 20 years, not counting the immediate post crisis period. Its debt was racked up literally 40+ years ago https://mobile.twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/999975659635167232 Meanwhile in Spain which has actually recovered https://mobile.twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1001116384124956672 Finally here’s a fun chart for laffs. I thought being pasty white and Protestant was supposed to shield you from bad economy? https://mobile.twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1000828738274148353 icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 00:27 on Jun 3, 2018 |
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Jun 3, 2018 00:24
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What's needed is to fix the Southern countries economy so that every single country in the common market has a trade surplus. This is logical and makes sense.
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Jun 3, 2018 01:39
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I've been quiet until now because I've had a lot on my plate, but I just want to chime in and say that the new government is a loving disgrace. We have: - A Prime Minister who demonstrably lied on his CV regarding his expertise and qualifications; - A Minister for Family who outright stated "same-sex families do not exist", and "gay people and immigrants are destroying our society" (actual quotes); - A Minister for Health who said "Vaccines cause autism" (also an actual quote); - A Minister for Finance who wants to raise VAT rate to finance introducing a flat income taxation rate; - A Minister for Schools who has a degree in Sports Science and has vowed to "undo everything the previous government has done"; - A Minister for Europe who wants to leave the EU; - A Minister of Interior who is a known xenophobe and is on the record as saying that NGOs that save people from drowning in the Mediterranean should be prevented from doing so. These fuckers will destroy Italy. The only chance for survival is for them to fail so hard that we go back to vote and elect a new government in a short time. Fun fact: the new government was formed eighty-eight days after election day, coincidence?
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Jun 3, 2018 08:26
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Mikl posted:I've been quiet until now because I've had a lot on my plate, but I just want to chime in and say that the new government is a loving disgrace. Apply to be the 51st US state?
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Jun 3, 2018 08:33
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Mikl posted:I've been quiet until now because I've had a lot on my plate, but I just want to chime in and say that the new government is a loving disgrace. but have you tried gitting gud? I mean, honestly tried?
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Jun 3, 2018 09:19
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They got the Italian equivalent of GUD.
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Jun 3, 2018 09:25
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the only good thing about the collapse of liberal democracy is gonna be that I get to bully GC in the camps and steal his weekly potato rations for myself. i mean, why should the weak have potatos? the free market giveth and taketh
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Jun 3, 2018 09:29
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suck my woke dick posted:Apply to be the 51st US state? Mikl's concern is that her country is going to be destroyed by a bunch of bigoted fascist morons being in power, so your suggestion would only make things worse.
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Jun 3, 2018 09:44
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Mikl posted:- A Minister for Family who outright stated "same-sex families do not exist", and "gay people and immigrants are destroying our society" (actual quotes);
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Jun 3, 2018 09:49
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Toplowtech posted:It's even stupider than that, first time i heard about Lorenzo Fontana was a few years back when he wrote a book which is just the French far right's "grand replacement" (a conspiracy theory) translated into Italian, not realizing that the current French version he is copying is just an updated version of the original "THE ITALIANS ARE INVADING FRANCE ON ORDERS OF THE POPE TO DESTABILIZE OUR REPUBLIC WITH THEIR MAD LUST FOR BABIES AND RELIGION" from circa 1880+ but with the Italians replaced with Muslims. Well, most of what became Catholic Scholasticism was just cribbed from Arab Muslim theologians. Italians are also a lot darker skinned than Victorian depictions of the ancient Romans would suggest. Maybe the Italians have just been Arab Muslims in disguise the whole time? Population replacement happened 1500 years ago as the original native Romans died of malaria and barbarians icantfindaname fucked around with this message at 10:21 on Jun 3, 2018 |
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Jun 3, 2018 10:16
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^^^ Honestly, that conspiracy theory is something I feel you shouldn't even joke about and stick to telling people who promote it to gently caress off. It's too vile to normalize in any way. Nah, it's just the descendants of white European immigrants turning around and being racists to later immigrant groups. A few of the more anti-immigrants right-wing politicians in France are of Italian descent. They don't care about past persecutions of Italians because they're racists. Kassad fucked around with this message at 10:28 on Jun 3, 2018 |
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Jun 3, 2018 10:25
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Okay, sort of being going and back and forth on whether I want to post it, because I figure it's not very interesting for people outside of Italy who are just trying to put the situation in the country right now in the frame of EU politics, but I figure it's worth doing this because, uh, this situation is a result of pre-existing problems, and international coverage of Italian politics can often feel superficial to me (on the other hand, Italian coverage of politics is also bad, but for completely different reasons.) I think it's easy to forget how suicidal the center-left in Italy has been for the past 20 years or so. There is no shortage of bad decisions taken by Renzi and PD to cite, even though they obviously appear as giants when compared to parties like the xenophobic Northern League (there's no way in hell I'm gonna leave out Northern, the guys who always called southern Italians lazy idiots are STILL THERE) and the Movement Five Stars, which has been courting right-wing voters for a long time on top of having a delirious, incoherent political platform and ideology (what can you expect from a "movement" which is an extension of a comedy routine?). Even during the formation of this government, when PD and M5S were discussing whether to form an alliance or not, Renzi decided to give a TV interview explaining that the party would NEVER ally with them. And he wasn't even the secretary anymore! Now, don't get me wrong, I don't think anyone expected the talks to go anywhere, but that was a clear move from Renzi to 1) assert that he still has power over the party and 2) make sure the party doesn't take responsibility for any action taken by a future government, after years where PD was "responsible" and backed pretty much every technocratic experiment or austerity measure. Agree or disagree with the rationale, it simply wasn't his place to force that decision after he had resigned from the position. I absolutely agree that the current situation is tragicomical, by the way, but it will continue to be so until the rage of the italians is directed towards actual concrete social and economic problems, and to do that you need strong, solid parties on the left side of the spectrum. I'm pretty pessimistic though, PD has always been milquetoast as hell at best, and new formations like Potere al Popolo (Power to the People... sigh... what a name...) are both incredibly insular and also incredibly populist (they were among the political formations that protested Mattarella's decision to veto Savona as the Minister of Economy and Finances, because they too flirt with the idea of blackmailing the EU into changing treaties and see the Euro with suspicion). There's also LeU, but they're basically just a mutated piece of flesh shed by PD and it's pretty hard to see substantial differences in terms of policy (they're also not helped by the fact that they're substantially headed by the most reviled and has-been intelligentsia of the center-left). I do, however, think Laura Boldrini, the former president of the chamber of deputies, is a really strong politician overall and forwards a feminist, anti-harassment, anti-racist message Italy desperate needs to hear (though her position on fake news isn't really backed by empirical data as far as I can tell). Not surprisingly, she's also by far one of the most hated Italian politicians and received any manner of threat from citizens and politician alike. I'm fully expecting this government to fall, there are enough profound differences between the two parties (especially in terms of electorate) that I don't expect this government to go on for longer than a year at most. Plus, neither party has a leadership with ideologues of principles, so the moment it's not convenient to be there, they'll find a way to discharge responsibilities on some patsy (Conte, perhaps? Who the gently caress is that guy supposed to be anyway?) At the end of the day, things are looking bleak, even if you ignore the repercussions this might have in Europe at large, with the experiment of the European Union quickly reaching a tipping point where it might either explode or reform itself. P.S. : What is it about people named Fontana that make them huge bigots? Attilio Fontana, the current governor of Lombardy, also talked about how the white race has to be defended and was still elected.  P.P.S. : I'm an ignorant Untermensch with little to no understanding of currency and economics. May GaussianCopula forgive me.
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Jun 3, 2018 11:11
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Because politics and economics are like an electronic game in which you have infinite chances to try and fail at your leisure with no material consequences.
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Jun 3, 2018 11:19
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Fair Bear Maiden posted:P.P.S. : I'm an ignorant Untermensch with little to no understanding of currency and economics. May GaussianCopula forgive me.
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Jun 3, 2018 12:02
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https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1003377346471133185 there's not enough right wing seats for them to make a comfortable coalition, but i'm sure the centrists will lean to the right again
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Jun 3, 2018 21:57
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Truga posted:https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1003377346471133185 How many people actually migrate to Slovenia?
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Jun 3, 2018 23:26
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