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It’s anecdotal but people are oddly quick to forgive or normalize gambling addiction from what I’ve seen. Even when they’re married and going down with the ship.
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Jun 6, 2018 19:49
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SiGmA_X posted:A 10yo, $100k+ car should still have value over scrap, but it doesn’t so you have to trash your cars. loving Singaporeans.
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Jun 6, 2018 19:55
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meat police posted:It’s anecdotal but people are oddly quick to forgive or normalize gambling addiction from what I’ve seen. Even when they’re married and going down with the ship. If they divorce, up to half that income is going away. Gotta let it ride for a chance to get your money back!
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Jun 6, 2018 19:55
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Since we're talking about gambling, a recent This American Life episode Starting From Scratch spends part of the episode talking to a Las Vegas limo driver. He's actually a huge mix of GWM and BWM. He makes a bunch of money driving the limo, and then uses it to gamble, a lot. From the episode, he's actually a pretty good gambler and will wrack up huge winnings, but then also go and lose it. He starts every day hussling for money, then spends a few hours gambling. Supposedly, he would go and win like $500k, then lose it all over the next few months. Rinse and repeat, pretty interesting episode overall. https://shortcut.thisamericanlife.org/#/clipping/233?_k=sylim6
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Jun 6, 2018 20:16
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Switchback posted:Don’t go thinking us Americans are unique in our consumption. It's the COE that pushes the cost of cars into the 100k+ range. That's not recoverable on resale.
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Jun 6, 2018 20:41
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Bird in a Blender posted:Since we're talking about gambling, a recent This American Life episode Starting From Scratch spends part of the episode talking to a Las Vegas limo driver. He's actually a huge mix of GWM and BWM. He makes a bunch of money driving the limo, and then uses it to gamble, a lot. From the episode, he's actually a pretty good gambler and will wrack up huge winnings, but then also go and lose it. He starts every day hussling for money, then spends a few hours gambling. Supposedly, he would go and win like $500k, then lose it all over the next few months. Rinse and repeat, pretty interesting episode overall. The real BWM in this story is the casinos that banned a degenerate gambler because he happened to get lucky that one time.
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Jun 6, 2018 20:51
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Bird in a Blender posted:Since we're talking about gambling, a recent This American Life episode Starting From Scratch spends part of the episode talking to a Las Vegas limo driver. He's actually a huge mix of GWM and BWM. He makes a bunch of money driving the limo, and then uses it to gamble, a lot. From the episode, he's actually a pretty good gambler and will wrack up huge winnings, but then also go and lose it. He starts every day hussling for money, then spends a few hours gambling. Supposedly, he would go and win like $500k, then lose it all over the next few months. Rinse and repeat, pretty interesting episode overall. Being a "good gambler" means you lose as little money as possible to the house edge, except for the extremely rare exceptions where high-stakes players have successfully negotiated a positive edge against the casino without the casino realize it. I'm not sure how you make big piles of money driving a limo around Vegas, given the amount of competition.
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Jun 6, 2018 21:20
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BEHOLD: MY CAPE posted:Being a "good gambler" means you lose as little money as possible to the house edge, except for the extremely rare exceptions where high-stakes players have successfully negotiated a positive edge against the casino without the casino realize it. Extremely difficult and you end up quickly being banned by the casino so it is not exactly worth the effort. I also read that the casinos have made it even more difficult nowadays, so it is even less worth it now.
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Jun 6, 2018 22:00
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could play poker and take money from old peeps while giving the casino a bit
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Jun 6, 2018 22:09
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John Smith posted:You are factually wrong. It is possible to win consistently with perfect gameplay for certain games. This is obviously untrue on its face.
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Jun 6, 2018 22:30
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BEHOLD: MY CAPE posted:I'm not sure how you make big piles of money driving a limo around Vegas, given the amount of competition. He said when he drives somebody to the brothels outside of Vegas the brothel kicks back 30-40% of whatever the passenger spent there. Which sounds much more GWM than actually working at the brothel in the first place.
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Jun 6, 2018 22:36
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OctaviusBeaver posted:He said when he drives somebody to the brothels outside of Vegas the brothel kicks back 30-40% of whatever the passenger spent there. Which sounds much more GWM than actually working at the brothel in the first place. This was my first thought, it's not the fares, it's the kickbacks. Strip clubs pay cabbies a pretty big racket per head, so one limo full of drunk people gets you a decent wad of cash. Not all of those kickbacks result in a 1099 either, so you don't even have to pay taxes.
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Jun 6, 2018 22:48
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:This is obviously untrue on its face. Nah, card counting at blackjack can have a positive EV depending on the ruleset, but: 1. It's very easy to spot an advantage player and Vegas casinos are entirely allowed to kick you out of the table or even the casino. 2. It's harder and harder to find a table with a ruleset that lets the EV go positive, and when you do those are usually lower maximum bet tables. There are some video poker games that are positive EV given perfect strategy, but perfect strategy is hard and even the people who try it are more likely to screw it up than not so they're still profitable for the casinos.
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Jun 6, 2018 23:02
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Fuzzy Mammal posted:This is obviously untrue on its face.   Come and join 423 people who are consistently winning.
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Jun 6, 2018 23:03
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Is practicing live and let live BWM? I wonder if people who work themselves into frothy rages of shitposting when they don't like someone's opinions do better or worse on average, economically speaking. I know FYGM is fantastic with money though.
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Jun 6, 2018 23:21
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H110Hawk posted:This was my first thought, it's not the fares, it's the kickbacks. Strip clubs pay cabbies a pretty big racket per head, so one limo full of drunk people gets you a decent wad of cash. Not all of those kickbacks result in a 1099 either, so you don't even have to pay taxes. The guys (almost always guys) who drive blinged-out limo style SUVs/buses with the party lights and the stripper pole around Vegas make an absolute killing off the books from strip clubs, have seen it personally happen. Even regular old-school style limos for those looking for that sort of vibe are in on the action. BWM for the bachelor party (or, depending on what you get out of the experience and who's paying for bottle service & lap dances, a great time) but GWM for the drivers, I agree.
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Jun 7, 2018 00:18
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Phanatic posted:Nah, card counting at blackjack can have a positive EV depending on the ruleset, but: iirc you often need a huge bankroll to deal with the variance of blackjack anyways? iirc someone did the back-of-the-envelope calculation for me and it was something along the lines that if you wanted to be reasonably assured of not going broke and make $50/hr on some bog-standard blackjack ruleset by cardcounting (as opposed to just playing basic strategy), you needed like a $100,000 bankroll plus nerves of steel for when you're down. I have to imagine playing basic strategy alone is even worse. EDIT: putting it this way, there's a reason they sell basic strategy cheatsheets inside the casino. players who know how to play optimally and are willing to go deep into debt to prove it to themselves are a revenue source. EDIT 2: also, fake advantage play in the form of ex. betting systems is a real thing and a lot of people who think they know how to play optimally in games with a random element are actually playing a make-a-little-money-or-lose-a-comparatively-huge-amount-of-money strategy EDIT 3: being clear this post is agreeing with you EDIT 4: is this bitcoin roulette wheel legit? Krotera fucked around with this message at 03:08 on Jun 7, 2018 |
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Jun 7, 2018 03:04
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oh yeah, content! here is one of my favorite videos ever: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIK8FoHU0Z8 (the first thirty minutes contain most of the content) summary: a self-taught mathematician explains how to make a lot of money at blackjack, then plays himself at blackjack and fails to make any money. i really hope anyone with a half hour to spare and elementary probability knowledge will blow it on this video.
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Jun 7, 2018 03:12
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Phanatic posted:Nah, card counting at blackjack can have a positive EV depending on the ruleset, but: Yeah, John Smith is actually right in this case. It's possible to win consistently, in the long term, with perfect play at some casino games under some rule sets, mainly blackjack with card counting coupled with favorable rules for the player. A really good game with perfect play only has a house edge of 0.5-0.7%, and then you count cards and dramatically ramp up your bets when the composition of the deck swings in your favor (more 10s/aces left so more likely for you to get 20 or a blackjack). The trouble is that's quite obvious what you're doing when you plod along betting the minimum for half an hour and then suddenly go "I FEEL LUCKY BABY WOOOO!" and slap down a bunch of $100 chips. And even then the EV might only be a few percentage points in your favor, so a lot of the time you're still going to lose the hand anyway, meaning you need a large bankroll to be able withstand those swings. And then you get kicked out and blacklisted by the casinos anyway. It's basically GWM with a high chance of being BWM if you get caught before you've won (or on a downswing) or aren't playing absolutely perfectly 100% of the time (because even a couple of incorrect plays per hour can wipe out your entire theoretical advantage and then some). If I recall a lot of the time when video poker is positive it's because there's a progressive jackpot or something where the top payout is big enough that it's positive EV overall, again, in the long term, but video poker perfect strategy also has some really weird counter-intuitive moves sometimes.
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Jun 7, 2018 03:15
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Known Lecher posted:If I recall a lot of the time when video poker is positive it's because there's a progressive jackpot or something where the top payout is big enough that it's positive EV overall, again, in the long term, but video poker perfect strategy also has some really weird counter-intuitive moves sometimes. in profit terms, this is equally good for the casino as just paying out slightly negatively every round, but being able to lose or gain a lot of money in the short run is much more fun for here's a hypothetical positive-EV game to play. at odds of 1/50 billion, win a 100 billion dollar prize. EV=$2 per $1 spent. how many tickets do you want? Krotera fucked around with this message at 03:20 on Jun 7, 2018 |
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Jun 7, 2018 03:18
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Krotera posted:oh yeah, content! here is one of my favorite videos ever:
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Jun 7, 2018 03:20
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Hoodwinker posted:lmao holy poo poo the first 5 minutes of the video he gives the equivalent to saying, "Winning the lottery is a 50/50 chance. You either win or you lose." yes but then we advance to "it's more like a a 33/67 chance because half the time you lose two different ways" (apologies for posting so much, i really really love gambling)
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Jun 7, 2018 03:21
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Holy poo poo this is so amazingly bad. I love it. If anybody watches and is curious as to how to debunk this dumb poo poo right away: the notion of giving the dealer "only one chance to win" completely ignores the probabilities of each card showing up. In a scenario where you have 13 (and under this guy's system so you're not taking another card), and the dealer has 12, you have given the dealer a 9/13 chance to draw any card and beat you. You haven't reduced your chances of losing at all. The dealer will statistically win this outcome. Meanwhile, by taking a card, you have a 8/13 chance of increasing your hand and reducing the likelihood proportionally that the dealer can beat you (draw an 8 and the dealer's odds go from 9/13 to 1/13), at a cost of a 5/13 chance that you bust. This guy's "amazing system" completely ignores the interactions between the probabilities associated with the mechanics of the game. Somebody let me know if I hosed that up. I have a feeling that if you laid out the various initial draws for the dealer/player on a computational table, set this guy's ruleset down, and calculated all of the possible outcomes, you'd see the player get their rear end kicked. Hoodwinker fucked around with this message at 03:36 on Jun 7, 2018 |
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Jun 7, 2018 03:25
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Krotera posted:here's a hypothetical positive-EV game to play. at odds of 1/50 billion, win a 100 billion dollar prize. EV=$2 per $1 spent. Here's the one I like. I'm going to auction off a dollar bill. Highest bid wins the dollar. But the second-highest bidder loses his bid and gets nothing. How much do you bid? (I also enjoy the fact that in a casino there really is a perfectly even-money bet you can make. But to be able to make it, you have to make a bet with a ~1.4% house edge first.)
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Jun 7, 2018 03:27
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gambling gambling gambling yesPhanatic posted:Here's the one I like. i'm a sadist so on board game day i literally made my friends play this one and they took my dollar. i also tried to sell one of my friends the rights to sell the dollar and he said no ok we're going to play a game where you buy a ticket and i give you a dollar and then i flip a coin and every time it lands heads i double your dollar. what's the expected value, you ask? fool! there is no expected value. Krotera fucked around with this message at 03:31 on Jun 7, 2018 |
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Jun 7, 2018 03:29
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Krotera posted:gambling gambling gambling yes Oh, poo poo, have we discussed penny auctions yet? These are loving amazing. Okay, it's like ebay, but the way the auction works is that you have to *pay the auction site money* to place a bid, and each bid increases the price of the item. Like, the site auctions a $1000 laptop at a starting price of $1, and each bit raises the price of the item by a penny *and* extends the duration of the auction by some interval. To bid, you need to pay a dime to the auction site, just to place the bid. So you pay a dime and bid $1, because getting a $1000 laptop for a payout of $1.10 is an amazing bargain. The price of the item is now $1.01. If someone wants to bid $1.01, they need to pay a dime. But it's a $1000 laptop, bidding $1.02 plus twenty cents for your two bids is still an amazing deal, so you then pay another dime to bid again. Repeat until the $1000 laptop sells for a few hundred bucks but everyone has paid a bunch of money to the auctioneer just to place their bids and all the losing bidders collectively paid well more than $1000 and wind up with nothing. It's *brilliant*.
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Jun 7, 2018 03:38
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Hoodwinker posted:Holy poo poo this is so amazingly bad. I love it. i'm not sold that these are the exact numbers (like, if you have 13 with an ace in it, the ace can take two values -- it's slightly more complicated) but you're correct that if you and the dealer had the same hand, then playing this strategy, about ~80% of the time, the dealer easily beats you by drawing an extra card. the dealer's outcomes are basically better in the same way if his hand is slightly higher or slightly lower than yours. if you were playing against a player who was doing this, looking at it just case by case, it would be obvious what you needed to do to beat him more than half the time.
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Jun 7, 2018 03:52
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Krotera posted:i'm not sold that these are the exact numbers (like, if you have 13 with an ace in it, the ace can take two values -- it's slightly more complicated) but you're correct that if you and the dealer had the same hand, then playing this strategy, about ~80% of the time, the dealer easily beats you by drawing an extra card. the dealer's outcomes are basically better in the same way if his hand is slightly higher or slightly lower than yours. if you were playing against a player who was doing this, looking at it just case by case, it would be obvious what you needed to do to beat him more than half the time.
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Jun 7, 2018 03:57
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Hoodwinker posted:Yeah the values aren't exact also because you have to figure how many decks are being shuffled together. The more decks, the closer it becomes to the values I listed, and the fewer, the more the cards that are in play influence it, but yeah the concept is there. a good starting point (i think) is that any time your hand is <17, you can only win if the dealer goes bust. if you stop below 17, the dealer has a >=50% chance of beating you just because he has a <=50% chance to bust for every card he takes while under 17.
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Jun 7, 2018 04:01
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Phanatic posted:Oh, poo poo, have we discussed penny auctions yet? Years ago I worked at Chase dealing with credit card disputes. This was one of the top complaints we got on a regular basis. They would pay a few hundred dollars for the bids when joining the site, get mad when they never won anything, and then try to dispute the charge because they didn’t get what they paid for since they didn’t win anything. Of course what they paid for were the points which they did receive so those disputes were never reimbursed.
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Jun 7, 2018 04:23
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Phanatic posted:Oh, poo poo, have we discussed penny auctions yet? This is Quibids right? I haven’t seen their commercials for a bit, but they were the first big commercials I saw for this concept, and they were such stereotypical scam commercials my wife and I loved pretend getting excited every time the stupid commercial came up (and iPad for $97. What!!!!).
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Jun 7, 2018 04:24
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Krotera posted:oh yeah, content! here is one of my favorite videos ever: The only logical explanation for this video/comments to exist is that some internet group decided to make a mock video and comments for humor or something. The comments really are amazing though.
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Jun 7, 2018 04:43
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Droo posted:The only logical explanation for this video/comments to exist is that some internet group decided to make a mock video and comments for humor or something. The comments really are amazing though. the best way to repay him for the free entertainment is to make a fake comment saying you made $100
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Jun 7, 2018 04:52
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I'm not sure you guys are correctly factoring the advanced mathematical concept known as Bust Mode
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Jun 7, 2018 05:11
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Krotera posted:here's a hypothetical positive-EV game to play. at odds of 1/50 billion, win a 100 billion dollar prize. EV=$2 per $1 spent. fifty billion (pure-ev calcs without factoring in utility are often bwm to a fantastic degree) i'm watching the blackjack video now, he really gets going right out of the gate, doesn't he?
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Jun 7, 2018 05:52
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Known Lecher posted:The trouble is that's quite obvious what you're doing when you plod along betting the minimum for half an hour and then suddenly go "I FEEL LUCKY BABY WOOOO!" and slap down a bunch of $100 chips. If the casino wasn't trying to catch you, this would be easy as poo poo though. Just bring in your stats textbook and notes, your laptop and some pen and paper.
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Jun 7, 2018 06:36
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I'm pretty sure I posted it itt the last time gamblingchat came up, but anyone who's interested in the machinations of how Vegas casinos have turned bilking gambling addicts into a hard science should watch the Louis Theroux documentary on Vegas gambling. At one point he interviews this old widow and the casino was literally sending employees around to pretend to be her friend while she poured millions into their slots
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Jun 7, 2018 06:43
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John Smith posted:You are not supposed to solo. You go in with a team, and signal when it is time for your partner to place the mega bet. Well yeah, team play is the next level...you get a bunch of people grinding out minimum bets and signaling a big bettor who wanders the floor placing bets at the hot tables. You’re not too far off on the second part. The courts in New Jersey actually forbid casinos from ejecting card counters. You could probably bring your own pen and paper and books to the table (laptop might questionable)...but as a direct result of the court decision, the casinos made the rules in Atlantic City so garbage that it’s nearly impossible to get any kind of a worthwhile positive EV.
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Jun 7, 2018 07:14
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I gambled that I would find this thread entertaining 
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Jun 7, 2018 07:22
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baquerd posted:Is practicing live and let live BWM? I wonder if people who work themselves into frothy rages of shitposting when they don't like someone's opinions do better or worse on average, economically speaking. I mean, I understand the liberal perspective, I just don't agree with it. Some people apparently literally cannot understand opposing perspectives. Must be scary to live in a world where there are so many villains, rather than fellow citizens who simply don't agree with you. Known Lecher posted:You’re not too far off on the second part. The courts in New Jersey actually forbid casinos from ejecting card counters. You could probably bring your own pen and paper and books to the table (laptop might questionable)...but as a direct result of the court decision, the casinos made the rules in Atlantic City so garbage that it’s nearly impossible to get any kind of a worthwhile positive EV.
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Jun 7, 2018 07:57
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