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reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

khwarezm posted:

Do you believe what Volkerball posted happened, yes or no?

It's from a United Nations human rights report by the way.

Frankly before knowing that it was from the united nations i would've said there was a not insignificant chance it didn't happen. loving amnesty international published reports about ethnic cleansing that ended up being false, there is a LOT of bullshit about the YPG doing bad stuff (not to say that the YPG has never been doing bad stuff, but a lot of the individual allegations have turned out to be straight up lies.)

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kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Torrannor posted:

I still think Turkey is not that far gone that Erdogan can just cheat his way to remain in power. Putin didn't fake the election results, he "just" used the power of the state to eliminate and discredit the opposition while using a lot of propaganda to extol his virtues. And please remember that Russia did recover from the low status it had after the Soviet Union went bust. That's enough to get a lot of people to vote for him. MAGA chuds in the USA are hardly better.

Erdogan is trying to copy that model, and not third rate autocrats with their 94% election victories. And it looks like he may actually fail in this. We'll know more next Monday.

Yeah this is my read - Erdogan has done a lot of stuff in this cycle that would not really be necessary if he was aiming for a sweeping "80% of the vote I swear" victory - altering the election law to allow parties to run in coalition and circumvent the 10% rule to save the MHP (but at the expense of granting more relevance to Saadet and iYi), the noises about relaxing conscription to allow the middle class to pay their way out, making statements about lifting the emergency after the election to take the wind out of the opposition and the whole posturing about the Qandil operation.

Not to say that some ballot box shenanigans are out of the question but he still is very much trying to win the popular vote and using state resources to his advantage, trying to kneecap the HDP to prevent them crossing the 10% mark and using the power of state media to squeeze the opposition's campaigning space (seen a couple of people notch up the marked dip in polling support for Aksener to a concentrated media campaign to push the election as Ince v Erdogan - though that may also be down to salty talking heads who over estimated Akseners relevance)

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

reignonyourparade posted:

Frankly before knowing that it was from the united nations i would've said there was a not insignificant chance it didn't happen. loving amnesty international published reports about ethnic cleansing that ended up being false, there is a LOT of bullshit about the YPG doing bad stuff (not to say that the YPG has never been doing bad stuff, but a lot of the individual allegations have turned out to be straight up lies.)

It's not really fair to say the reports lied. The amnesty report relied on witness testimony and satellite imagery to come to its conclusion that Arabs were being displaced from Rojava along sectarian lines. The UN report didn't claim that the events didn't happen, but it was their determination that they didn't constitute ethnic cleansing. That the acts were, generally speaking, proportionate and justifiable with the context that these were areas that people were trying to return to in the short term aftermath of those areas being retaken from ISIS. There's no doubt houses were burned down and people were turned away and refused access to their homes, it just wasn't judged to be a systematic campaign along sectarian lines. Some level of that is to be expected given the regularity with which ISIS booby traps areas as they fall back.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

Volkerball posted:

It's not really fair to say the reports lied. The amnesty report relied on witness testimony and satellite imagery to come to its conclusion that Arabs were being displaced from Rojava along sectarian lines. The UN report didn't claim that the events didn't happen, but it was their determination that they didn't constitute ethnic cleansing. That the acts were, generally speaking, proportionate and justifiable with the context that these were areas that people were trying to return to in the short term aftermath of those areas being retaken from ISIS. There's no doubt houses were burned down and people were turned away and refused access to their homes, it just wasn't judged to be a systematic campaign along sectarian lines. Some level of that is to be expected given the regularity with which ISIS booby traps areas as they fall back.

I didn't say that that the amnesty report lied, just that it was false and some of the allegations the YPG have been lies.

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich
https://twitter.com/m_selanik3/status/1009844429677580289

That's uh... that's a pretty big rally you have there Ince :stare:

So who would be interested in a Turkish elections effort post? It's on this sunday.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

fspades posted:

https://twitter.com/m_selanik3/status/1009844429677580289

That's uh... that's a pretty big rally you have there Ince :stare:

So who would be interested in a Turkish elections effort post? It's on this sunday.

I would be extremely interested.

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."

Grape posted:

I would be extremely interested.

Please, yes.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

fspades posted:

https://twitter.com/m_selanik3/status/1009844429677580289

That's uh... that's a pretty big rally you have there Ince :stare:

So who would be interested in a Turkish elections effort post? It's on this sunday.

me me me

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Turkish twitter take: calling Aksener "mommy" is extremely creepy

Torrannor
Apr 27, 2013

---FAGNER---
TEAM-MATE

fspades posted:

So who would be interested in a Turkish elections effort post? It's on this sunday.

I would be super interested.

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

fspades posted:

So who would be interested in a Turkish elections effort post? It's on this sunday.
Please do, I would be very interested. After all the crackdowns on the HDP, the press, and anyone opposed to Erdogan's power grabbing I sorta stopped following Turkish politics.

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Saladin Rising posted:

Please do, I would be very interested. After all the crackdowns on the HDP, the press, and anyone opposed to Erdogan's power grabbing I sorta stopped following Turkish politics.

Well lucky you, because it just got interesting again.

A GUIDE TO TURKISH ELECTIONS OF ETERNAL DESPAIR, 2018. PART I

Background

So between the last nationwide elections in Turkey in which AKP and Erdogan won again, a very weird coup attempt was made, a state of emergency was declared, and a new constitution that gave the president extended powers with lots of executive privileges narrowly passed in a referendum with 51% voting in favor. While all of this happening Erdogan allied himself with the nationalist party MHP and began to openly court nationalist voters, nearly completely abandoning Kurdish vote in the process. These developments, combined with the current grip Erdogan has over Turkey resulted in many foreign observers concluding Erdogan was now the unchecked supreme leader of Turkey. But there was a slight hurdle for Erdogan. The new powers of the super-presidency was going to be enabled only after the next presidential elections which was slated to be in 3 November 2019. Winning another election in a state of emergency with a fully controlled mainstream media? Easy.

But then things changed. The looming economic recession began to rear its head with a full blown currency meltdown and rising inflation. It was hard to notice at first thanks to the tightly censored media, but soon enough even the AKP yes-men and cheerleaders were forced to admit there was a problem. Plus, Erdogan's alliance with MHP's Bahceli turned out to be a not a great trade at all for the electoral math, and worse yet it resulted in the emergence of a new centre-right party, IYI Party, which is poised to grab dissenting nationalist and also conservative voters who were disillusioned with AKP. So at Bahceli's urging, Erdogan declared snap elections to get this thing in the bag rather than wait for things to get worse.

Previously Erdogan was comfortably staying in power Turkey by gaining 40+% of the vote thanks to the divided opposition. But now he must clear the 50% bar which he did only twice, and only narrowly both times, if you count the referendum. But that's still something his opposition didn't even come close to accomplish. The parliamentary elections is an even bigger question though and it's something that might vreate a major problem for AKP.

You see, Turkey has a bullshit 10% electoral threshold where a party must clear in order to be eligible to enter the parliament. It was mainly instituted to keep Kurdish & leftist parties away from the parliament, but then HDP, a Kurdish-leftist party gained 13% of the vote in June 2015 elections, and single-handedly ended AKP's one-party rule (temporarily). Also, Bahceli is in trouble, and it was really doubtful he would clear the threshold, so instead of removing the threshold, AKP brought a new piece of legislation that allowed for parties to make electoral alliances and circumvent the threshold that way. As you might now guess with anything that involves Bahceli, this backfired. The main opposition party CHP built its own alliance with IYI and two other right wing parties (including Islamists :wth:). If HDP clears the threshold again there is a real possibility that CHP's alliance might outnumber AKP's in the parliament.

This is a problem. Because although the parliament is weakened in the new system, they may still paralyze or hinder Erdogan's presidency in all sorts of ways. The nightmare scenario for Erdogan is losing the parliament, and failing to win the presidency in the first round. That would be such an upset, and he would have a much harder time in the second round, now that he is seen as weak and defeatable. The only reason why this is possible is because Erdogan is facing formidable opponents for a change and they are coordinating against him on a level not seen in Turkish politics for a very long time. But Erdogan's base still holds together and he's still the favored candidate in a mostly conservative and nationalist country.

The polls

The election polls in Turkey are a collection of falsehoods, lies, and handwaves that would make Nate Silver weep bitter tears. But they still give an idea where each party roughly stands... somewhat? Anyway the problem with polls is they do not share their methodology and it is very doubtful that Turkish voters would freely give their real political opinions to some random pollsters, because they live in an environment where political profiling and discrimination is a real thing. But here are some of them if you are interested:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Turkish_general_election,_2018

To sum it up: Erdogan is unlikely to win in the first round, AKP declined in the last three months and standing around low 40s, and opposition parties on the rise, HDP clears the threshold.

Next up: Candidates and parties and why Bahceli is the dumbest motherfucker alive (or perhaps a secret genius and democratic hero?)

Squalid
Nov 4, 2008

Do you trust that the elections will proceed properly within the law without any chicanery like ballot stuffing, manipulating counts, or disqualifying voters?

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich
A GUIDE TO TURKISH ELECTIONS OF ETERNAL DESPAIR, 2018. PART II

THE UNDEFEATED CHAMPION:



Recep Tayyip Erdogan
Party: Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Party agenda: social conservatism, fiscal liberalism, organized villainy and mayhem
Allies: MHP

You know who this is. You know what he's about. He survived a dozen upheavals, won every election except June 2015. This election is his final frontier, his infinity gauntlet, his sauron-gets-the-ring moment. On a Bismarckian turn, he became an ardent nationalist in the last few years, which may have been a move that may cost him dearly. Otherwise he's the same Erdogan that we all know and love. Except, is he looking a bit more tired and distracted lately? Making gaffes and poor statements that he was not used to make? Hey, is he actually stressed? Naah, he's fine.

Or maybe not. A video of Erdogan leaked to Youtube recently where he is talking with other AKP officials and election supervisors. In it he stressed that the election was definitely not in the bag and it was the toughest challenge they have yet encountered and his first and foremost concern was not allowing HDP to clear the threshold. How he's going to accomplish that is up in the air, but certainly does not take a genius to guess.

A side note about Devlet Bahceli, hero of the Republic:



Party: Nationalist Movement Party
Party Agenda: eh?
Allies: AKP


Now this dude doesn't even run for president, but we have to talk about him. You see, in the distant time called "before 2015" Bahceli was one of the harshest critics of Erdogan and AKP, and his party was the natural place for right-wing voters who were anti-Erdogan. but then June 2015 elections happened and not only MHP got less mps than the Kurdish party HDP, he refused to form a coalition and forced the country to re-election, in which AKP won comfortably and MHP performed even worse. This disgruntled the party rank-and-file and soon enough Bahceli was challenged by a trio of high ranking MHP politicians, one of which was Meral Aksener. But by hook and crook (and some little help from the government) Bahceli clung on to his seat, and then in a shocking move he threw his support for Erdogan's super-presidency.

Needless to say MHP voters were majorly pissed, and entire cadres left the party wholesale to found a new one, IYI Party. And he failed to bring MHP's base to vote in favor for the new constitution. (The combined vote of AKP & MHP was 61% in the last election, but referendum resulted in a 51% "yes" vote). From then on he supported AKP and Erdogan in everything, and the defections became so bad, he singlehandedly made MHP, one of the oldest and most established political parties in Turkey, a minor party with no hope of winning that all important 10%.

Now what could explain this? A fun conspiracy theory claims that Bahceli is basically a trojan horse of the deep state (the real, original one, not the fake American one) and seeing that MHP can only go so far, he engineered the creation of a right-wing party that can unseat Erdogan, while also forcing the hand of the latter to do risky moves like forsaking the Kurdish vote and opening the way for electoral alliances. And he supported super-presidency and the state of emergency only because you actually need a super-president with emergency powers to undo AKP's decades long colonization of the judiciary and bureaucracy. Truly he fights for us.

Or more likely he hopes to bargain for positions in the bureaucracy and military for Grey Wolves in the New Turkey. Yeah, that makes more sense.

THE CHALLENGERS



Muharrem Ince
Party: Republican People's Party (CHP)
Party Agenda: social democracy, secularism, Kemalism
Allies: IYI, SP

If you want to beat Erdogan, you better have an Erdogan. Well okay, maybe that's a bit unfair to him, but seriously the dude sounds just like Erdogan if you don't pay any attention to what he's saying.

Ince is a retired physics teacher turned politician who was largely known by his fire-and-brimstone parliament speeches circulating around social media, and challenging CHP chairman Kilicdaroglu in primaries once. But then Kilicdaroglu did the only sane thing and decided not to run for president himself and chose Ince to shoulder the burden, just 3 months ago. Since then Ince landed on the Turkish political scene like a meteor and totally stole the show from Meral Aksener. He's energetic, funny, always ready with a witty comeback, and knows how to rile a crowd into populist frenzy. He's anti-Erdoganist rage personified. Ince points out (perhaps a bit insincerely) he comes from a conservative Sunni family and he himself a devout Muslim. He also made overtures to Kurdish voters, drew massive crowds in Kurdish cities (a feat for a CHP candidate), called for the release of imprisoned HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas, and also visited him in prison. Win or lose, he's going to stay in Turkish politics.



Meral Aksener
Party: The Good Party (IYI)
Party Agenda: Nationalism, Kemalism, Anti-Immigration
Allies: CHP, SP

A right wing woman candidate in a sausage fest. Bet you didn't expect that. However Aksener is a veteran in Turkish politics; she served as interior minister for a short time in the 90s as a member of the centre-right DYP. Then in the 2000s she entered MHP, became an mp, and established a following that would later challenge Bahceli and result in her own expulsion from the party. Good thing she found ready support from MHP insiders and together they built a new party with a really stupid name.

Because she comes from a nationalist background Aksener is sometimes characterized as a Le Pen type figure, but the truth is she is more of a Macron, and her party situates itself to the left of AKP. She makes a lot of noise about seperation of powers, women's rights, and seperation of religion and state. This makes her extra dangerous to Erdogan as she is the only candidate capable of building a wide right-wing coalition that can still play nice with CHP. However she has a big weakness with regards to Kurdish voters who associate her with the worst atrocities of the 90s. Although she also joined call for Demirtas's release.

She disappeared from the face of the earth lately. The early election call caught IYI Party flatfooted and although they managed to submit their candidates, you don't hear from her much. Perhaps that's because mainstream media has an omerta rule on all things Aksener and IYI, or perhaps Ince just grabbed her thunder and run.



Temel Karamollaoglu
Party: Felicity Party (SP)
Party Agenda: Islamism, Social Justice
Allies: CHP, IYI

If you are now confused over an Islamist candidate in CHP's coalition you are beginning to understand Turkish politics. SP is in fact the OG-Islamist party Erdogan and his supporters split from to form AKP. The relationship between old-school Islamists of the Erbakan kind and the new hip Erdoganist Islamists is not without its complications. The former have many grievances about Erdogan, chief of them being corruption allegations, the extravagant lifestyle of AKP elites, and cosying up with the US & Israel behind closed doors. Nevertheless this dude is a minor candidate but he does have the potential to nib some AKP voters now that they don't have to worry about the electoral threshold.



Selahattin Demirtas
Party: Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP)
Party Agenda: Kurdish & minority rights, democratic socialism
Allies: pfft haha


Demirtas is an extremely charismatic and cool dude that still packs a punch despite being behind bars on trumped up charges. The screenshot you see above is from 10-minute propaganda speech that is allotted for every presidential candidate on state television and he did it from prison. This man was the best possible ambassador the Kurdish movement had in Turkey and he made HDP a national phenomenon and pissed on Erdogan's super-presidency dreams on June 2015, so he and HDP had to be destroyed. And Erdogan largely succeeded, forcibly replacing many HDP mayors and throwing their mps and politicians into prison for alleged ties to PKK.

If you haven't noticed by now, the parliamentary arithmetic requires HDP to fall below the 10% threshold for AKP to comfortably gain a majority, because if they do it is nearly guaranteed AKP will get all those MP slots from Kurdish provinces HDP should have gotten. Being aware of this, many left-leaning (or rabidly anti-AKP) voters across the nation are considering to tactically vote for HDP. Similarly HDP voters are considering to vote for Ince in a possible second round.



Dogu Perincek
Party: Homeland Party (VP)
Party Agenda: Anti-Nato, pro-repression
Allies: Russian Intelligence


The joke Putin-approved candidate. Because every democracy needs one.

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Saladman posted:

I don’t think you can expect to reason with someone who is an adult and still thinks that crypto-anarchy or whatever the gently caress is an actually viable form of government for large population groups.

because clearly the white supremacist neoliberal capitalist hellscape we live in right now is so great!

edit: idk what u mean by crypto-anarchy. im an anarchist who believes strongly in the notions of democratic confederalism/libertarian municipalism and sure disagree or whatever but at least know what you're attacking (like even just read the wikipedia pages its not hard.) if u ever want to learn more i can always point you in the direction of some good material for free online or even answer questions

khwarezm posted:

Do you believe what Volkerball posted happened, yes or no?

It's from a United Nations human rights report by the way.

reignonyourparade posted:

Frankly before knowing that it was from the united nations i would've said there was a not insignificant chance it didn't happen. loving amnesty international published reports about ethnic cleansing that ended up being false, there is a LOT of bullshit about the YPG doing bad stuff (not to say that the YPG has never been doing bad stuff, but a lot of the individual allegations have turned out to be straight up lies.)

ding ding ding

Kanine fucked around with this message at 02:16 on Jun 22, 2018

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
there's people in this thread who would have supported franco in spain during the civil war lmao

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
idk why volkerball thinks its some kind of gotcha pointing out flaws in the rojava revolution as if i think (or any anarchists think) a revolution in an area like northern syria is going to be perfect or not bloody/messy.

Fat Lowtax
Nov 9, 2008


"I'm willing to pay up to $1200 for a big anime titty"


Huge majority of the people who support anybody in a civil war just follow their stomach or their hometown or their buddies. I know we're all Posters but still.

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

Fat Lowtax posted:

Huge majority of the people who support anybody in a civil war just follow their stomach or their hometown or their buddies. I know we're all Posters but still.

i would definitely say the different armed forces for rojava are a lot more ethnically/religiously diverse than other factions in the war tho despite the DFNS making fairly slow progress to be less Kurd-dominated.

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo
i really dont get the cynicism about rojava honestly. compared to pretty much every faction in the conflicts they're in they've come out on top in terms of human rights. we're talking about a revolution led by genuine libertarian socialist ideals and trying to play them off like they're just another tankie death cult is disingenuous as hell

Kanine fucked around with this message at 03:16 on Jun 22, 2018

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

quote:

"Amnesty International visited two central prisons in Qamishli and Malikiya under the control of the PYD-led administration’s police force, the Asayish in August 2015. At both facilities researchers were able to speak to detainees of their choice and interview them separately without any prison officials present."

quote:

"All detainees accused of terrorism interviewed by Amnesty International said that their conditions of confinement in the central prisons were adequate. Researchers observed that prison cells were not overcrowded and were well equipped with beds, adequate lighting, and bathroom facilities. Detainees did not allege that they were ill-treated or tortured in the central prisons visited. They said that they received three meals per day, were allowed to spend at least an hour per day in the prison courtyards, were provided access to medical treatment when needed, and entitled to one family visit per week and one phone call per week."

given unrestricted, unsupervised access to hundreds of prisoners... the worst thing Amnesty finds is this:

quote:

"Two prisoners however described poor conditions and ill-treatment in an Asayish pre-trial detention facility in Amouda, a town in northeastern Syria near the Turkish border. Mohamad (names have been changed to protect interviewees) was held in Amouda for six months from August 2014. He said that he shared an underground cell with 12 other people. He was not allowed to shower for the first month, or to go outside or see the sun. He was also verbally abused by prison guards because he used to live in an IS controlled area.

“The prison guards humiliated me because I was accused of being a supporter of the Islamic State. They told me that I deserve worse than being locked up in an underground cell,” he said. Another detainee held at the same facility and interviewed separately said he had suffered the same ill-treatment and abuse."

2 prisoners complain about their conditions in one of the smaller towns in August 2014. what was going on in August 2014? The Daesh genocide of the Ezidi in Sinjar, and later the destruction of Kobane and these guys complain that some Asayish guards yelled things at them. and again, its just what this guy says. Not his current situation.

meanwhile... https://www.vox.com/world/2017/2/7/14532540/saydnaya-syria-amnesty-international

rojava doesnt even have a loving legal death penalty. yeah sure they might execute daesh pigs but you're not gonna find me saying that's bad when i'll gladly do the same to fascists here in the states

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

Kanine posted:


ding ding ding

Answer the question, do you think it happened or not? Is the United Nations a good enough source to accept about underage combatants potentially getting press ganged into combat and imprisoned if they don't, or is even entertaining the notion just hatin'?

Kanine
Aug 5, 2014

by Nyc_Tattoo

khwarezm posted:

Answer the question, do you think it happened or not? Is the United Nations a good enough source to accept about underage combatants potentially getting press ganged into combat and imprisoned if they don't, or is even entertaining the notion just hatin'?

A: im skeptical of un reports

B: if this is true and one of the worst things that's been done in rojava than i still wholeheartedly support them over every over actor in the conflict since it's a pretty fucken tame thing in a brutal civil war lmao

Kanine fucked around with this message at 04:25 on Jun 22, 2018

tsa
Feb 3, 2014
When you are literally fighting against a genocidal death cult any rational moral system would allow the normal rules to shift and change. ISIS wasn't going to say woah they are only 13 years old, they would loving chop their godamn heads off.

Volkerball posted:

Can't help being dumb

We know.

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.

Kanine posted:

A: im skeptical of un reports

B: if this is true and one of the worst things that's been done in rojava than i still wholeheartedly support them over every over actor in the conflict since it's a brutal civil war lmao

This same report also rejects the idea that the Kurds were engaged in ethnic cleansing of Arabs in the wake of ISIS, generally speaking it's far more fixated on actors like the SAA, ISIS and Al Nusra than anything the Kurds have gotten up, there's no conceivable reason I can see to be skeptical of this other than the idea of the UN being just another imperialist stooge organisation, which is pretty dumb.

If you want to do this thing where you go 'the YPG didn't do anything wrong, but if they did do anything wrong it's actually fine' go on, I don't care, but there's nothing to be gained by reacting to the slightest bit of skepticism or examination of some of the things they might get up to with total rejection.

CrazyLoon
Aug 10, 2015

"..."
Great two posts fspades. Nice to see new posts and read something genuinely informative for a change. It also explains something that bugged me about these early elections even being allowed to happen, since I thought those emergency powers and all that came after the coup 2 years ago and have been in place ever since - turns out the keyword is 'after the next elections' and yea, quite predictably he wants to bag them early before poo poo gets even worse.

Though I honestly am wondering what might happen, if something like a Corbyn upset happens in Turkey with this one, since with this much power on the line things do have a tendency to turn extreme faster. I hope not, but still...

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

There was a brief moment in the start of the campaign where the opposition (primarily Felicity/Sadeet) tried to tap former president Adbullah Gul as a cross ticket candidate - there was a lot of speculation and some in CHP seemed to like the idea (Gul has been increasingly critical of Erdogan in a mumbly way) but the whole thing collapsed rather hilariously after Gul met with Davatoglu (allegedly trying to convince him to support a run) and parts of the CHP/IYI base violently rejected the idea of his candidacy - eventually leading to a bizarre moment when a military helicopter landed in his backgarden with the chief of staff and Erdogan's spokesperson who had a "polite" conversation with him after which he announced that actually no he was not running.

I think the thread may be interested in the opposition's increasing unity on the idea of a reproachment with Assad in reaction to the growing quagmire in Northern Syria - Felicity have never been keen on Erdogan's support for rebels in Syria (seeing it as an extension of western imperialism and an unsightly interference in the affairs of a Muslim nation), IYI would like to expel the Syrian refugees in Turkey as soon as possible and see a deal with Assad as the quickest path to that end and Ince has made favourable noises about reopening the Turkish embassy in Damascus and starting talks with Assad with an aim for eventual refugee repatriation.

Blut
Sep 11, 2009

if someone is in the bottom 10%~ of a guillotine
Thanks for the effort posts fspades, they're informative. Hopefully it goes well for you guys on Sunday. If you get time next week to do a post-election analysis it would be great.

Radio Prune
Feb 19, 2010
Battle for Southern Syria is expected to kick off pretty soon, given the massive increase in bombing and shelling on rebel-held towns.

Mozi
Apr 4, 2004

Forms change so fast
Time is moving past
Memory is smoke
Gonna get wider when I die
Nap Ghost
Any updates on the Yemen situation? Not hearing any news at all on the offensive.

icantfindaname
Jul 1, 2008


CrazyLoon posted:

Great two posts fspades. Nice to see new posts and read something genuinely informative for a change. It also explains something that bugged me about these early elections even being allowed to happen, since I thought those emergency powers and all that came after the coup 2 years ago and have been in place ever since - turns out the keyword is 'after the next elections' and yea, quite predictably he wants to bag them early before poo poo gets even worse.

Though I honestly am wondering what might happen, if something like a Corbyn upset happens in Turkey with this one, since with this much power on the line things do have a tendency to turn extreme faster. I hope not, but still...

There’s no chance the HDP guy wins though, the possibility is that they get enough of the Kurdish vote to stop Ereogan winning in the first round and open the possibility of the former MHP lady winning. But frankly, though fspades says she’s not a Le Pen type, I’m not really sure I believe that? She comes from the right-wing ultranationalist party? That’s a pretty big warning sign IMO. What is her position on minority rights/federalism/Turkish national identity? Because at a distance it looks like she’s socially liberal but only if you’re a pure 100% Turk. In that case she may very well end up being no better than Erdogan if she wins and leads to secular nationalist types reasserting control over the state. Which is what the coup was trying to do in the first place

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006

Mozi posted:

Any updates on the Yemen situation? Not hearing any news at all on the offensive.

That means its stagnant/going poorly. Success is trumpeted, silence means either objectives haven't been attained or else an actual disaster occurred.

I have not found a better way to parse western media re: Yemen.

e; AFP saying the airport fell late Wednesday. So there's that.

Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 19:42 on Jun 22, 2018

Saladin Rising
Nov 12, 2016

When there is no real hope we must
mint our own. If the coin be
counterfeit it may still be passed.

Kanine posted:

rojava doesnt even have a loving legal death penalty. yeah sure they might execute daesh pigs but you're not gonna find me saying that's bad when i'll gladly do the same to fascists here in the states
Ironically Rojava doesn't even execute ISIS fighters, and as a result they're now having to deal with feeding and housing hundreds of ISIS fighters because their home countries don't want them:
https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/983267457715638272

quote:

23/ With 100s of foreign ISIS-members in Kurdish jails in Syria, Kurds told me they r getting desperate.

Many Western countries refuse ISIS fighters back, but prisoners need jails, food etc. "ISIS came from Europe to kill us, now we have to feed our killers from our own pocket"

fspades posted:

Muharrem Ince

Ince points out (perhaps a bit insincerely) he comes from a conservative Sunni family and he himself a devout Muslim. He also made overtures to Kurdish voters, drew massive crowds in Kurdish cities (a feat for a CHP candidate), called for the release of imprisoned HDP leader Selahattin Demirtas, and also visited him in prison. Win or lose, he's going to stay in Turkish politics.

Meral Aksener

Because she comes from a nationalist background Aksener is sometimes characterized as a Le Pen type figure, but the truth is she is more of a Macron, and her party situates itself to the left of AKP. She makes a lot of noise about seperation of powers, women's rights, and seperation of religion and state. This makes her extra dangerous to Erdogan as she is the only candidate capable of building a wide right-wing coalition that can still play nice with CHP. However she has a big weakness with regards to Kurdish voters who associate her with the worst atrocities of the 90s. Although she also joined call for Demirtas's release.

--
If you haven't noticed by now, the parliamentary arithmetic requires HDP to fall below the 10% threshold for AKP to comfortably gain a majority, because if they do it is nearly guaranteed AKP will get all those MP slots from Kurdish provinces HDP should have gotten. Being aware of this, many left-leaning (or rabidly anti-AKP) voters across the nation are considering to tactically vote for HDP. Similarly HDP voters are considering to vote for Ince in a possible second round.
Thanks for this effort-post, it was very informative. Muharrem Ince's outreach is a good thing, I wish it was happening in better times. I'm also very curious to see how strategic voting goes with regard to the CHP and HDP; it's a shame that strategic HDP votes are most likely to come at the cost of the CHP and vice versa.

Meral Aksener is definitely an oddball, you've got a mish-mash of women's rights, right-wing nationalism, and separation of church and state all in one candidate. I really hope she can poach votes from the AKP rather than the CHP.

Oh, and as always: gently caress Erdogan.

elbkaida
Jan 13, 2008
Look!
Yeah those Turkey effortposts were real good and now I'm going to keep an even closer look on what's happening.

Is there any chance of HDP candidates suddenly being disqualified for dubious reasons?

Nothingtoseehere
Nov 11, 2010


Hopefully Ergodans reign in Turkey will soon come to a peaceful end, but I doubt he'll go quietly, although a video about how challenging the campaign is is a good sign he's actually trying to win if legitimately.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

I didn't know Iraq was helping Assad in Syria against ISIS, apparently with airstrikes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44588633

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Count Roland posted:

I didn't know Iraq was helping Assad in Syria against ISIS, apparently with airstrikes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44588633

Well, Assad wasn't going to do it, the planes he's got have other priorities. They're less helping Assad and more helping themselves by getting rid of these assholes sitting just over the border.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 16:15 on Jun 23, 2018

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I was at the 360/OS event arranged by the Atlantic Council in Berlin, we had a session where Bellingcat's Nick Waters described how he confirmed Bana Alabed was really in Aleppo, and then she came on stage.

https://twitter.com/bellingcat/status/1010606835659927552

She's very confident in person, she was having a good conversation with Nick beforehand.

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
so is there a specialty agency you go to for crisis actors or do the big ones just carry some in house


can you get joaquin phoenix in your next piece?

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

They breed them in vats, obvs

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