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89 posted:So, in a 10 man league. Where's the drafting sweet spot? For me it's always the # of players in my top tier. My top tier is those top 4 RBs and Antonio, so I'd pick 5th.
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Jul 4, 2018 20:18
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pmchem posted:I see someone activated the 20-team goon league on ESPN. No new thread yet, though. Who's commish this year? Ask and ye shall receive. https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3862257
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Jul 5, 2018 04:37
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Revisiting my lack of RB's in my dynasty salary cap league...Spoeank posted:I would personally try to see what RB Robby Anderson and/or Michael Crabtree could get you because honestly just that caliber of RB would be immensely more useful to your team I have a team interested in both of them. Obviously, I'd like to move Crabtree over Anderson, due to Anderson's great contract. The team in question has these RB's: Ajayi, Jay $37 Carson, Chris $2 Clement, Corey $2 Collins, Alex $2 Fournette, Leonard $29 Hunt, Kareem $31 Johnson, David $70 Mack, Marlon $2 Powell, Bilal $14 Smith, Rod $9 I doubt there's any way I could pry Hunt or Fournette from him, but what do you guys think about Clement, Collins, or Mack? Would trading Crabtree for a package of 2 of those 3 be a good idea?
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Jul 5, 2018 16:37
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I feel like I'd probably want to keep Collins at $2. Still he's like that dude's RB5, so maybe it doesn't hurt to ask. Of those 3 he'd be the one I want.
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Jul 5, 2018 16:51
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Why not shoot high and offer a trade for all three?
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Jul 5, 2018 17:58
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It took me forever to whittle my roster down to what it is now. What other 2 players would you recommend dropping if he did agree to ship all 3 out for Crabtree?
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Jul 5, 2018 18:04
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RCarr posted:It took me forever to whittle my roster down to what it is now. What other 2 players would you recommend dropping if he did agree to ship all 3 out for Crabtree? Looks like you only have 20 players and 3 rookie draft picks, so doesn't that leave you with 25?
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Jul 5, 2018 20:51
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Any of you guys read FF magazines? I'm looking for something to distract myself on the beach. I already got the Sharp Football Preview.
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Jul 5, 2018 21:57
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Looks like you only have 20 players and 3 rookie draft picks, so doesn't that leave you with 25? I will have 22 guys after I make cuts, which will bring me to 25 after I use my 3 picks.
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Jul 5, 2018 21:59
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RCarr posted:I will have 22 guys after I make cuts, which will bring me to 25 after I use my 3 picks. Weird, I only counted 20 in your last post.
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Jul 5, 2018 22:15
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Weird, I only counted 20 in your last post. Just checked and it’s missing Treadwell and Lee, which brings me to 22. I must have quoted an older post of my team, my bad.
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Jul 5, 2018 22:45
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RCarr posted:Just checked and it’s missing Treadwell and Lee, which brings me to 22. I must have quoted an older post of my team, my bad. Bad poster. No fantasy advice. (Post the list but I am thinking Treadwell and White)
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Jul 5, 2018 22:51
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It's slow in here, let's argue! Our (me and my dad) auction values list is done. Call me out on any takes that fizzle more than sizzle, and let's fight about it https://footballabsurdity.com/2018/07/05/2018-fantasy-football-auction-values/
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Jul 6, 2018 21:16
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Bad poster. No fantasy advice. 1QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/3FLEX. It's a dynasty league with a 25 man roster with 3 IR slots. $250 salary cap. Player salaries increase by $1 or 10% each year (whichever is higher). Here's my roster, with this year's salary next to each. QB P. Rivers - 2 J. Goff - 3 A. Luck - 13 RB M. Ingram - 11 D. Lewis - 2 R. Burkhead - 4 T. Montgomery - 10 WR A. Brown - 51 D. Hopkins - 26 D. Thomas - 21 R. Anderson - 3 A. Jeffery - 21 M. Crabtree - 17 D. Westbrook - 2 A. Robinson - 12 K. White - 2 M. Mitchell - 2 D. Funchess - 2 L. Treadwell - 2 M. Lee - 2 TE H. Henry - 3 E. Ebron - 2 My picks: 1st round ($20), 2nd round ($8), 3rd round ($4)
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Jul 6, 2018 21:22
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Drunk Nerds posted:It's slow in here, let's argue! what's the budget? How many players?
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Jul 6, 2018 21:27
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It's all question marks. I wonder if Clement is worth grabbing. Or maybe trade away a third round pick for a 2019 2nd?
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Jul 6, 2018 21:32
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Drunk Nerds posted:It's slow in here, let's argue! DJ is a steal. McKinnon will disappoint at 36. I have Lenny 4nets above CMC. Henry and Lewis being 15 seems to just be a complete punt on valuing them. I think Penny and Sony both wind up higher than they are now. Edelman seems low. Benjamin too. I'm not sure how to value Edelman, but even missing 4 games he'll likely outscore anyone in his immediate neighborhood pricewise.
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Jul 6, 2018 21:34
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Here's a couple interesting stats I dug up for the podcast that you are under no obligation to listen to (because I sound like a frog). These are just in note form RASHAAD PENNY CAN SUCK AND BE AN RB1/HIGH END RB2 Seattle RBs had a touchdown problem. RBs had 994 yards, one TD rushing, 749 yards, 3 TDs through the air. League average last year was one TD every 212.5 rec yds for RBs, 1 TD/154 yards rushing. If the Seattle RBs scored TDs at a league average rate, they would have 9.97 TDs (10 TDs). This 6 TD increase accounts for 36 extra fantasy points for the Seattle RBs. This increased their fantasy points on the season to 271.8. Wrap up 75% of that production into one player and that is 203.85 fantasy points. That is RB10, between Carlos Hyde (204.5) and Zeke (190.2). All of this is JUST regression, nothing to do with how Penny is better than the flotsam and jetsam they had cobbling together carries last year. RUN AWAY FROM SHADY 2626 touches, only 32 RBs have touched the ball more than him. Father time is undefeated. Last 5 to cross 2600 threshold Matt Forte Frank Gore Adrian Peterson Steven Jackson LaDainian Tomlinson Prior to crossing 2600 carries, per 16 games 296 carries, 68 tgts, 50 rec, 1728 yds, 11.1 TDs Similar to KAREEM HUNT 2017 MARSHAWN 2012 MATT FORTE 2008 AP 2015 After crossing 2600 carries, per 16 games Similar to JOIQUE BELL 2013 FRED JACKSON 2010 232 carries, 53 targets, 37 rec, 1180 yds, 7.45 TDs Shady will be useful but will be very disappointing. I expect him to be boom and bust..................... 2018's demarco murray Spoeank fucked around with this message at 22:14 on Jul 6, 2018 |
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Jul 6, 2018 21:56
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Ben Nevis posted:DJ is a steal. Arizona's offensive line is scary bad. Also Arizona doesn't have a reliable deep ball guy. This short field should make it easy for defenses to box in DJ Ben Nevis posted:I have Lenny 4nets above CMC. Fournette's foot/ankle just does not fully heal. He takes too many hard hits, too. He'll be great for 8 games then a constant 50/50 gametime coin flip as to whether he even plays. CMC is literally the only RB/WR in Carolina who doesn't completely blow. He'll get 80 catches as the Panthers figure out they can't move the ball without swing passes Ben Nevis posted:Henry and Lewis being 15 seems to just be a complete punt on valuing them. No, no, we're supposed to be disagreeing. Ben Nevis posted:I think Penny and Sony both wind up higher than they are now. Seattle will be playing from behind a ton, and their o-line is butter. Sony has fumbling issues, and fumbling issues+New England RB + crowded backfield is a recipe for disaster. Ben Nevis posted:Edelman seems low. Benjamin too. I'm not sure how to value Edelman, but even missing 4 games he'll likely outscore anyone in his immediate neighborhood pricewise. Edelman is tough for me because he doesn't score TDs. His season record is 6. Plus he's been losing the edge lately and NE's WRs are duller than they have been in years, plus Brady is 41. Kelvin Benjamin is a horrible player on the worst team in football. I want to put him at zero, but he is a WR1
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Jul 6, 2018 22:06
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Zauper posted:what's the budget? How many players? 200, 12 players. I'm going to bold that line as it is in an unfortunate position.
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Jul 6, 2018 22:08
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Drunk Nerds posted:200, 12 players. I'm going to bold that line as it is in an unfortunate position. I still don't see the line, though this is bolded: quote:These settings reflect a normal 12-team, half-PPR league with 6 point passing TDs. But you can use them for, whatever. It’s like baking, just eyeball it. I think paying over 30% -- nearly 35% -- of your budget for any player is an insane amount in any league. 12 players also feels 'small' for a 12 team league, and starter numbers matter. Tate/Jones feel undervalued. Penny at RB28 ($9) feels low. Same with a few of the other rookies expected to lead their backfield (michel, rojo, etc). My guess is your costs are too high across the board. Your top ~100 players by cost is ~95% of the overall budget. Assuming something like 180 total players drafted (12 teams, 15 players) that leaves under $2 per player. In larger leagues / larger starting rosters, this wouldn't be ideal. Even in a small league, it's probably not really ideal.
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Jul 6, 2018 22:49
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Zauper posted:I think paying over 30% -- nearly 35% -- of your budget for any player is an insane amount in any league. 12 players also feels 'small' for a 12 team league, and starter numbers matter. That's pretty typical for the very top dudes though. I pulled up my 14 team auction from last year and Bell, DJ, and Brown went in the low 70s, and there were a handful more in the 60s. I went back for the last several years and even when we were a 12 teamer, it wasn't unusual to have several guys going in the 60s with one or two hitting the 70s. That's just the nature of the beast.
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Jul 6, 2018 23:12
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Ben Nevis posted:That's pretty typical for the very top dudes though. I pulled up my 14 team auction from last year and Bell, DJ, and Brown went in the low 70s, and there were a handful more in the 60s. I went back for the last several years and even when we were a 12 teamer, it wasn't unusual to have several guys going in the 60s with one or two hitting the 70s. That's just the nature of the beast. Is your budget 200 too?
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Jul 6, 2018 23:14
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Spermy Smurf posted:Is your budget 200 too? No, but I took price as a percentage of the total to get a value for a $200 auction.
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Jul 6, 2018 23:17
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Why not shoot high and offer a trade for all three? What he said. What are ya, a pussy
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Jul 6, 2018 23:18
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Ben Nevis posted:That's pretty typical for the very top dudes though. I pulled up my 14 team auction from last year and Bell, DJ, and Brown went in the low 70s, and there were a handful more in the 60s. I went back for the last several years and even when we were a 12 teamer, it wasn't unusual to have several guys going in the 60s with one or two hitting the 70s. That's just the nature of the beast. What someone will pay and what you should pay are two different questions. Are you trying to answer the first or the second? I just looked at 2 redraft leagues from last year; most expensive player went for 27%. One of those is a 16 team league with around 20 starters. The other was 12 with 9. I looked at 3 dynasty leagues, the most expensive player in one of them went for 35% of budget (Wentz, guy hosed himself), and in the other two the most expensive was 22%. In one of those, no player went for over 20%. If people are spending 30%+ of budget on players, you should exploit that by winning the best of the tier 2/3 guys after everyone blows their wad instead of going stars and scrubs with 2 stars and trash in 70% of your starter slots.
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Jul 7, 2018 00:43
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https://twitter.com/RyanMc23/status/1015355008961966080 Woohoo!
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Jul 7, 2018 00:54
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I dont know how to run twitter. What did you win? I dont know who RyanMc is. Or what SuperFuckBowlEight is. SFB8?
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Jul 7, 2018 00:55
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Hell yeah man congrats!
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Jul 7, 2018 00:59
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Spermy Smurf posted:I dont know how to run twitter. Scott Fish Bowl is a 900-player competition run for charity. It's full of fantasy football experts.
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Jul 7, 2018 01:51
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Drunk Nerds posted:CMC is literally the only RB/WR in Carolina who doesn't completely blow. He'll get 80 catches as the Panthers figure out they can't move the ball without swing passes Lol some of your takes are bad, but this is the worst. CJ Anderson was a cap casualty and has plenty left in the tank. Funchess is a quality WR1 and DJ Moore is going to eat. CMC is going to regress due to the above and a healthy Olsen.
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Jul 7, 2018 02:28
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Alfalfa posted:Lol some of your takes are bad, but this is the worst. I forgot about Olsen. He’s good. Your C.J. Anderson love really perplexes me, though. Would like to hear more about why he isn’t horrible
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Jul 7, 2018 05:03
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Drunk Nerds posted:I forgot about Olsen. He’s good. Jonathan Stewart leaving frees up 200 carries from last year, and Cam rushed more than he has any other year too. CJ Anderson has never averaged lesss than 4 ypc. He'll get goal line looks and early down carries over CMC. Why do you think he's horrible?
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Jul 7, 2018 05:48
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If CJ Anderson gets 200 carries next year it will be the second time he has been healthy or dependable in his career to get 200 carries in his five year career despite being such a big part of the Broncos game plan along the way that he was a first round fantasy pick at some point HA HA HA
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Jul 7, 2018 06:08
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Drunk Nerds posted:It's slow in here, let's argue! Duke Johnson at $20 is overvalued. Above Alex Collins and Kenyan Drake? I can't agree with that, even in PPR. On other hand, Joe Mixon at $12 is too low. Feel like he ought to be in that $18-22 range as well. I'd also swap Rashaad Penny and Royce Freeman. $11 for Freeman feels like a bold take; I'd much rather have Penny. I also think the Jags D is worth at least $5 this year. As someone who usually has a little money leftover after my auction drafts, I'm very tempted to just throw at the Jags D this time.
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Jul 7, 2018 07:07
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My fantasy advice is don't draft CJ Anderson.
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Jul 7, 2018 12:13
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Drunk Nerds posted:It's slow in here, let's argue!  Looks like you put more emphasis (a lot more) on players who are easily replaceable, and offset this by devaluing the top tier players.
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Jul 7, 2018 14:57
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RCarr posted:My fantasy advice is don't draft CJ Anderson. I like CJ Anderson. In the last four years he's missed 11 games, and more than half of those was in the 2016 season. So I don't really buy the injury-prone argument. He's demonstrated multiple seasons with over a thousand combined yards in an offense that suffered greatly from poor QB play, and last year was his best yet. In spite of this his ADP is in the 10th round, which really surprises me. Players like Anderson are one of several reasons why I think this is an excellent year to go WR heavy in the early rounds.
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Jul 7, 2018 15:01
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What’s funny is I actually valued C.J. Anderson as TWICE that of the site averages I found. My dad and I looked at Anderson, looked at the AAC and some recommended values, and said, "these people are all dumb, lets double that estimate." I like him, and think he could be one of those metronome rbs that round out a winning fantasy auction. Still not paying more than 3% of my budget for him though Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 00:01 on Jul 8, 2018 |
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Jul 7, 2018 23:01
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| # ? May 31, 2024 12:39 |
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The more I think about it the more Jimmy Graham's 5th round ADP is............... worrisome.
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Jul 9, 2018 00:40
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