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pubic works project
Jan 28, 2005

No Decepticon in history, and I say this with great surety, has been treated worse or more unfairly.
Oops. Guess he's dropping on the draft boards.

https://twitter.com/mysportsupdate/status/1019376805638213632?s=21

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Spermy Smurf
Jul 2, 2004

Sataere posted:

Ricky Seals-Jones, the new tight end hotness.

Well that hype train ended abruptly.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
https://twitter.com/KTAR923/status/1019370682142978049

All three name sleeper TEs are drunks

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Dude just had to pee.

Drunk Nerds
Jan 25, 2011

Just close your eyes
Fun Shoe

quote:

Seals-Jones was arrested after he attempted to use the restroom inside the W Hotel in Scottsdale. When hotel employees told him only guests were allowed inside at the time.

He's not the first person to get arrested in Arizona for trying to use a bathroom meant for W's only.

Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Jul 18, 2018

Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011
So I'm in a superflex league and can keep six. It's a 12 team league and we play QB, OP, 2RB, 2WR, W/T Flex, TE. No PPR. There's a 3QB roster limit. Nothing else particularly unusual. Keepers don't cost anything, there's just rules regarding how long they can be kept. I finished 3rd last year (yay) but as a result am in a bad draft spot. Who do you keep?

Philip Rivers
Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Tannehill
Nick Foles
C.J. Anderson
Todd Gurley
Marlon Mack
Samaje Perine
Ty Montgomery
Doug Baldwin
Jarvis Landry
T.Y. Hilton
Robby Anderson
Keelan Cole
Evan Engram

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

Ben Nevis posted:

So I'm in a superflex league and can keep six. It's a 12 team league and we play QB, OP, 2RB, 2WR, W/T Flex, TE. No PPR. There's a 3QB roster limit. Nothing else particularly unusual. Keepers don't cost anything, there's just rules regarding how long they can be kept. I finished 3rd last year (yay) but as a result am in a bad draft spot. Who do you keep?

Philip Rivers
Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Tannehill
Nick Foles
C.J. Anderson
Todd Gurley
Marlon Mack
Samaje Perine
Ty Montgomery
Doug Baldwin
Jarvis Landry
T.Y. Hilton
Robby Anderson
Keelan Cole
Evan Engram

Rivers
Tygod
Gurley
Baldwin
Hilton
Engram

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it
Alfalfa has it. there's a pretty clear line in talent at WRT and those superflex leagues you're pushing up the QBs

Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011

Spoeank posted:

Alfalfa has it. there's a pretty clear line in talent at WRT and those superflex leagues you're pushing up the QBs

My biggest concerns are 1) Taylor not being a guy you can count on with Mayfield in the wings and 2) Hilton just being absolute rear end last year.

Zauper
Aug 21, 2008


Spoeank posted:

Alfalfa has it. there's a pretty clear line in talent at WRT and those superflex leagues you're pushing up the QBs

Tanny over Tygod? That's the one I'd look at.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Landry over Tygod. Or Tannehill, but who the hell knows what he'll be. I'd rather count on Landry maintaining decent low end WR2 value. Edit: Hilton is a completely obvious keeper, there's no way you don't keep him.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

Ben Nevis posted:

My biggest concerns are 1) Taylor not being a guy you can count on with Mayfield in the wings and 2) Hilton just being absolute rear end last year.

Go Tanny then but you gotta keep 2 qb’s.

1 of 2 things is going to happen to Hilton this year.

A) Luck comes back and Hilton is again top 5 WR
B) Luck doesn’t come back and Hilton has had a whole off season and camp to connect with Brisket and the new way better OC.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
I would consider Anderson or Landry (probably Anderson) over Tyrod or Tannehill.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

If it's a keeper superflex league with standard scoring and people aren't idiots, all of the good QBs will be kept and the first round will be picking up the remainders, who are probably the high-risk guys and the really lovely guys. In this format you can't not keep a potentially useful QB.

Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011

Leperflesh posted:

If it's a keeper superflex league with standard scoring and people aren't idiots, all of the good QBs will be kept and the first round will be picking up the remainders, who are probably the high-risk guys and the really lovely guys. In this format you can't not keep a potentially useful QB.

Definitely agree. There are actually 5 or 6 useful (better than mine) QBs going back into the pool this year. Looking at things it might be possible to trade someone + 1.10 to move up to 1.4 or 1.5.

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Leperflesh posted:

If it's a keeper superflex league with standard scoring and people aren't idiots, all of the good QBs will be kept and the first round will be picking up the remainders, who are probably the high-risk guys and the really lovely guys. In this format you can't not keep a potentially useful QB.

Correct.

My 7 8 9 10 there would be Tanny, Anderson, Landry, Cole/CJA depending on how spicy I'm feeling. Tanny only because of superflex

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon

Leperflesh posted:

If it's a keeper superflex league with standard scoring and people aren't idiots, all of the good QBs will be kept and the first round will be picking up the remainders, who are probably the high-risk guys and the really lovely guys. In this format you can't not keep a potentially useful QB.

I guess I just don't see how likely that is with Tyrod or Tannehill. Tannehill maybe.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

Beer4TheBeerGod posted:

I guess I just don't see how likely that is with Tyrod or Tannehill. Tannehill maybe.

Easier to grab 1 QB in the draft though than hope you can catch 2 serviceable options in Superflex.

I'm not saying Tygod or Tanny based on their skill. I'm saying it only because trying to find 2 in a draft where most teams will keep 2 is really going to be tough.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012
Tyrod is not going to be a usable QB this year. 20 QBs have been taken in the top 3 picks since 2000, 11/20 started week 1, 16/20 started at least three quarters of the games their rookie year. Thinking Tyrod holds off Mayfield to buck that trend is a bad bet.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

sourdough posted:

Tyrod is not going to be a usable QB this year. 20 QBs have been taken in the top 3 picks since 2000, 11/20 started week 1, 16/20 started at least three quarters of the games their rookie year. Thinking Tyrod holds off Mayfield to buck that trend is a bad bet.

Well 12 team league means 24 are going to be playing each week and 32 + rookies are going to be on rosters.

Tyrod will for sure be a usable QB in a superflex format this year and if he has to go draft 2 instead of 1 the chances he gets anyone better as his 2nd or 3rd option are very slim unless he wants to over pay.

I would much rather hold Rivers & Tyrod and use my early pick to grab another QB than hold Rivers, use my early pick to grab another QB, then pray there is one left by the time it comes back to me.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Alfalfa posted:

Well 12 team league means 24 are going to be playing each week and 32 + rookies are going to be on rosters.

Tyrod will for sure be a usable QB in a superflex format this year and if he has to go draft 2 instead of 1 the chances he gets anyone better as his 2nd or 3rd option are very slim unless he wants to over pay.

I would much rather hold Rivers & Tyrod and use my early pick to grab another QB than hold Rivers, use my early pick to grab another QB, then pray there is one left by the time it comes back to me.

On what are you basing Tyrod being a usable QB? I'm in complete agreement starting QBs are worth a premium in superflex, but Tyrod has an uphill fight to be that for even half the year. Tannehill is a much better option. Edit: I mean usable as in worth drafting and planning to use all year. If you're advocating keeping him over Landry or Tannehill because he has a decent chance to start the first game or two, then that's crazy imo.

sourdough fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Jul 18, 2018

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt
Tanny or tygod like I said I don’t care. But he has to keep 2 starting QB’s

Spoeank
Jul 16, 2003

That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

sourdough posted:

Tyrod is not going to be a usable QB this year. 20 QBs have been taken in the top 3 picks since 2000, 11/20 started week 1, 16/20 started at least three quarters of the games their rookie year. Thinking Tyrod holds off Mayfield to buck that trend is a bad bet.

how many of these QBs were behind a guy with a $16 million cap hit who the team traded the #65 pick for though?

Azhais
Feb 5, 2007
Switchblade Switcharoo

Spoeank posted:

how many of these QBs were behind a guy with a $16 million cap hit who the team traded the #65 pick for though?

Counterpoint: It's the Browns

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

Spoeank posted:

how many of these QBs were behind a guy with a $16 million cap hit who the team traded the #65 pick for though?

If he can lead the Bills to the playoffs he will be fine for one season in Cle and I don’t see Baker playing at all this season.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Spoeank posted:

how many of these QBs were behind a guy with a $16 million cap hit who the team traded the #65 pick for though?

You can look up as many details as you want on pfr as easy as I could. Completely different situation, of course, but how did Osweiler's cap hit help him see the field with Cleveland? And Cleveland traded for Tyrod in March, and had a gaping hole at QB that desperately needed both a starter and depth. No disrespect to Tyrod, it just is not historically a situation that will see him keep the job for long.

Beer4TheBeerGod
Aug 23, 2004
Exciting Lemon
Counterpoint: Hugh Jackson.

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt
This just in, Eifert is now projected to be the TE5 this season.

Why do you ask?

Because I just picked him up and now have 4 of the top 5 TE’s in 2018 in my main dynasty league.

Kelce, Ebron, Eifert, & ASJ

:smug:

MacheteZombie
Feb 4, 2007
The te depth of disappointment

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

MacheteZombie posted:

The te depth of disappointment

Mark my words at least 2 of those end up top 5 TE

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Alfalfa posted:

Mark my words at least 2 of those end up top 5 TE

I mean Kelce and any starting TE could end up in the top 5. There’s not too many sure thing TE’s in the league.

Sataere
Jul 20, 2005


Step 1: Start fight
Step 2: Attack straw man
Step 3: REPEAT

Do not engage with me



sourdough posted:

You can look up as many details as you want on pfr as easy as I could. Completely different situation, of course, but how did Osweiler's cap hit help him see the field with Cleveland? And Cleveland traded for Tyrod in March, and had a gaping hole at QB that desperately needed both a starter and depth. No disrespect to Tyrod, it just is not historically a situation that will see him keep the job for long.

Did you really just use Osweiler's cap hit to try making your argument about cap not mattering? Because that is pretty disingenuous. They traded for Osweiler to get a second round pick. That cap hit was a condition of getting that draft pick. Those situations aren't remotely comparable.

As for trading for Tyrod in March, do you really think they didn't realize they were going to grab a quarterback with their first pick? That they were so desperate to get a quarterback in place, they forgot they had two top five picks in a quarterback-rich draft in which to grab a quarterback?

I understand the historical data you are presenting, but you are doing some serious mental gymnastics to try to fit this situation in place. They specifically brought Tyrod in because they want to sit Mayfield for a year. That is their plan.

Of course, plans change. Injury or inefficiency can change circumstances. Of the five quarterbacks with rookies sitting on the bench behind him, Tyrod has the best chance of keeping his job all year.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Alfalfa posted:

This just in, Eifert is now projected to be the TE5 this season.

Why do you ask?

Because I just picked him up and now have 4 of the top 5 TE’s in 2018 in my main dynasty league.

Kelce, Ebron, Eifert, & ASJ

:smug:

You're going to have a nice frustrating time as you fail to start the top scoring TE on your bench, every week.

Also, inevitably, like three or four of the top ten TEs every year are total random dudes nobody's heard of, because that's how the position works, so you're going to get to experience the joy of having four of the top five TEs on your roster and still underscoring your opponent's TE several times through the season because he grabbed some rear end in a top hat off waivers week 3 who is just randomly going ham this year.


Sataere posted:

Of course, plans change. Injury or inefficiency can change circumstances. Of the five quarterbacks with rookies sitting on the bench behind him, Tyrod has the best chance of keeping his job all year.

This is really what it boils down to. In a keeper superflex league, even a risky guy like Tyrod is still an essential keep vs. any other position on the roster, including sure-thing star players at WR. There's essentially no chance of finding a replacement-level QB on the waivers during the season, so you have to have 3 QBs rostered all year, and your choice for the third one is going to be grim if you're trying to get him in round two of the draft. Whereas if all your WRs die you can still find someone on the waivers who will at least score more than 0 points, and the same for RB, TE, etc. Of course, you could always start a WR or RB in that superflex slot, but your RB3/WR3 are generally worse than any QB who is playing that day, even the QB playing for the Browns.

Of course it's not ideal, Mayfield could wind up coming in late in the season if Taylor is really bad or Mayfield appears to be ready. Cross that bridge when you come to it. For now, I still say you have to keep Taylor.

Zauper
Aug 21, 2008


Leperflesh posted:

You're going to have a nice frustrating time as you fail to start the top scoring TE on your bench, every week.

Also, inevitably, like three or four of the top ten TEs every year are total random dudes nobody's heard of, because that's how the position works, so you're going to get to experience the joy of having four of the top five TEs on your roster and still underscoring your opponent's TE several times through the season because he grabbed some rear end in a top hat off waivers week 3 who is just randomly going ham this year.


This is really what it boils down to. In a keeper superflex league, even a risky guy like Tyrod is still an essential keep vs. any other position on the roster, including sure-thing star players at WR. There's essentially no chance of finding a replacement-level QB on the waivers during the season, so you have to have 3 QBs rostered all year, and your choice for the third one is going to be grim if you're trying to get him in round two of the draft. Whereas if all your WRs die you can still find someone on the waivers who will at least score more than 0 points, and the same for RB, TE, etc. Of course, you could always start a WR or RB in that superflex slot, but your RB3/WR3 are generally worse than any QB who is playing that day, even the QB playing for the Browns.

Of course it's not ideal, Mayfield could wind up coming in late in the season if Taylor is really bad or Mayfield appears to be ready. Cross that bridge when you come to it. For now, I still say you have to keep Taylor.

I think you have to keep Tanny as your QB2, not TyGod, and then spend your first rounder on a QB -- ideally one of the rookies.

sourdough
Apr 30, 2012

Sataere posted:

Did you really just use Osweiler's cap hit to try making your argument about cap not mattering? Because that is pretty disingenuous. They traded for Osweiler to get a second round pick. That cap hit was a condition of getting that draft pick. Those situations aren't remotely comparable.

Lol, it's almost like I said it's a completely different situation. Cap hit doesn't mean much was the point, spoeank brought it up.

QBs drafted that early just don't sit out their rookie years, there's no mental gymnastics required. If you want to write an article laying out the reasons to expect otherwise for Baker (or Darnold), I'd be happy to read it. Go figure out if there are any comparable situations in the past decade or two and see what happened.

Edit: Also, I'm surprised how quickly everyone (not just you) seems to be writing off Flacco. If the Ravens were so enamored with Jackson, they wouldn't have waited til pick 32 to try to trade back up and grab him. Long term, Jackson is a nice prospect, but having everyone pass on him, including the Ravens themselves for an old rookie TE, doesn't bode well for him in the short term. Rosen also is much more likely to sit as long as Bradford can stay healthy. Which, ya know, probably won't be long, but he did play 29 out of 32 games in 2015-2016.

sourdough fucked around with this message at 21:58 on Jul 19, 2018

Alfalfa
Apr 24, 2003

Superman Don't Need No Seat Belt

sourdough posted:


QBs drafted that early just don't sit out their rookie years, there's no mental gymnastics required. If you want to write an article laying out the reasons to expect otherwise for Baker (or Darnold), I'd be happy to read it. Go figure out if there are any comparable situations in the past decade or two and see what happened.


QB's also drafted that early typically are for QB desperate teams that don't have any resemblance of a starter ahead of them which is why they had the #1 or a top 5 pick to begin with.

See Goff, Wentz, Winston, Mariota, Bortles, Luck, Griffin, Newton, Bradford - those are all the QB's drafted in the top 5 since 2010.

None of them had an above average QB to start over them.

None of those teams went and traded for a QB to start while they learned.

I excluded Trubs because Mike Glennon was a stupid idea anyways.

Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Mahomes was picked #10 and sat out last year. I don't know the statistics, but that's a recent example. Alex Smith outperformed, and that probably helped with the decision to keep him on the bench, but I think it was clearly the plan anyway.

Zauper posted:

I think you have to keep Tanny as your QB2, not TyGod, and then spend your first rounder on a QB -- ideally one of the rookies.

Ah god I forgot Tannehill was already in play.

Hmmm. I guess a lot depends on how many QBs are draftable and what position you're in in the first round. I'd want to keep both Tanny and Tyrod on the roster unless I was basically guaranteed to get a QB with my first pick who was guaranteed to start games. Especially given tannehill is coming off an injury and a lost year.

Ben Nevis
Jan 20, 2011

Leperflesh posted:

Mahomes was picked #10 and sat out last year. I don't know the statistics, but that's a recent example. Alex Smith outperformed, and that probably helped with the decision to keep him on the bench, but I think it was clearly the plan anyway.


Ah god I forgot Tannehill was already in play.

Hmmm. I guess a lot depends on how many QBs are draftable and what position you're in in the first round. I'd want to keep both Tanny and Tyrod on the roster unless I was basically guaranteed to get a QB with my first pick who was guaranteed to start games. Especially given tannehill is coming off an injury and a lost year.

I'm 10th. QBs available will be Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Newton, Luck, Cousins, and then a big drop off down to like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco. And of course, the rookies. It's pretty much the biggest haul of good QBs available since the league began. 6 of the teams in front of me are definitely looking for QBs. 2 of them could reasonably be. I've floated offers to the teams at 1.4 and 1.5, who both are not in dire need of a QB but could use receivers, to see about swapping first rounders.

RCarr
Dec 24, 2007

Yea definitely do what you can to trade up

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Leperflesh
May 17, 2007

Ben Nevis posted:

I'm 10th. QBs available will be Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Newton, Luck, Cousins, and then a big drop off down to like Alex Smith and Joe Flacco. And of course, the rookies. It's pretty much the biggest haul of good QBs available since the league began. 6 of the teams in front of me are definitely looking for QBs. 2 of them could reasonably be. I've floated offers to the teams at 1.4 and 1.5, who both are not in dire need of a QB but could use receivers, to see about swapping first rounders.

Wow. Yeah if you can do that and then drop one of tyrod/tannehill, that's a good plan. Even at tenth, you'd basically be sure of either a rookie or a starting veteran, so if you decide the top three rooks are all guaranteed to play, you might be able to swing it at #10.

I'm kind of stunned at someone deciding not to keep each of those veterans, though. Maybe some of your leaguemates are idiots?

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