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Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Ardennes posted:

Btw, the fact that war criminals can be treated absentia in Western countries is probably going to lead to even more bitter conflicts since the accused know they have no chance after the war and that the only way out for them is a victory. It also gives a leg up to countries looking for loyal proxies there is nothing waiting for them.

Eh... I've heard this argument a lot, but it doesn't really seem to hold water to me for any major state conflict. After Assad made the decision not to pull a Ben Ali and flee to Iran and instead to fight it out and become the ruler of a pile of cinders, his primary concern was probably not being sodomized with a bayonette a la Gaddafi. I doubt "worry over being extradited to foreign powers and tried for war crimes" ever factored in his top 20 concerns during the Syrian Civil War.

Basically a dictator can:

(A) flee immediately and steal as much as possible. Possibly their new home country will sell them out and send them back (Charles Taylor, Habré) in return for some favors, or possibly they'll just have a quiet retirement (Ben Ali, Yahya Jammeh), or with a smaller chance they'll have a quiet retirement but gently caress things up for themselves and want to go back and steal more (Baby Doc, "Emperor" Bokassa).

(b) Decide to fight, in which case they either win and succeed, or lose and are brutally murdered. Smaller chance: they lose but are somehow not brutally murdered, but instead captured by rebel troops and, for some reason instead of being tried and executed in their home territory, are instead sent to Europe.

That last possibility had a 0.00% chance of ever having happened to Assad under any circumstance short of a direct ground-troop assault by NATO including Turkey, and even then it would have been a slim chance.

Saladman fucked around with this message at 17:31 on Jul 22, 2018

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Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Vincent Van Goatse posted:

You really, really want them to be guilty of something, don't you?

it'd be nice if they werent

you gonna hold your breath on that one

GhostofJohnMuir
Aug 14, 2014

anime is not good
if all these refugees weren't criminals, why are they running?

true.spoon
Jun 7, 2012

Ardennes posted:

Ah, ye olde, tis the Russkis who has invented this! gently caress, I don't know I don't read Russian news that much, and I am in Azerbaijan at the moment. It seems to be posted on a bunch of Western news-sites.
For example? I don't doubt you will find some news site posting this, the question is how reputable it is.

It's just that if Russian media pushes a conspiracy theory (which this literally is until there some kind of real evidence) which is not reported by mainstream German media, I have come to be very skeptical.

true.spoon fucked around with this message at 17:52 on Jul 22, 2018

420 Gank Mid
Dec 26, 2008

WARNING: This poster is a huge bitch!

Spacewolf posted:

You know, does it ever occur to you that moustache-twirling monocle'd evil as you seem to portray is pretty much only the domain of Bond villains and similar cardboard fictional characters?

You're right, Israel's villainy makes those guys look like girl scouts

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.
You've really turned into a loving bottom feeder recently, Ardennes.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

khwarezm posted:

You've really turned into a loving bottom feeder recently, Ardennes.

Also, to be honest, I think we are pretty much on the opposite sides politically, so enjoy. Btw, I would need to see evidence before I think the White Helmets were actually doing what the Russians accused them of in the past.

true.spoon posted:

For example? I don't doubt you will find some news site posting this, the question is how reputable it is.

It's just that if Russian media pushes a conspiracy theory (which this literally is until there some kind of real evidence) which is not reported by mainstream German media, I have come to be very skeptical.

Posting the story about the White Helmet resettlement? I think France24 and a much of other outlets have it. It helps if you actually are more specific about which theory you are talking about.

Either way, what we know, It is very clear that in this context that Israel is very certainly going out of their way to help them (and if the West agrees to immediate resettlement). It is arguably for what reasons. Maybe they are that much more valuable than veteran translators? Personally, I think it is fishy, because I know Israel doesn't give about humanitarian concerns of Arabs, so there needs to be something else to it.


Saladman posted:

Eh... I've heard this argument a lot, but it doesn't really seem to hold water to me for any major state conflict. After Assad made the decision not to pull a Ben Ali and flee to Iran and instead to fight it out and become the ruler of a pile of cinders, his primary concern was probably not being sodomized with a bayonette a la Gaddafi. I doubt "worry over being extradited to foreign powers and tried for war crimes" ever factored in his top 20 concerns during the Syrian Civil War.

Basically a dictator can:

(A) flee immediately and steal as much as possible. Possibly their new home country will sell them out and send them back (Charles Taylor, Habré) in return for some favors, or possibly they'll just have a quiet retirement (Ben Ali, Yahya Jammeh), or with a smaller chance they'll have a quiet retirement but gently caress things up for themselves and want to go back and steal more (Baby Doc, "Emperor" Bokassa).

(b) Decide to fight, in which case they either win and succeed, or lose and are brutally murdered. Smaller chance: they lose but are somehow not brutally murdered, but instead captured by rebel troops and, for some reason instead of being tried and executed in their home territory, are instead sent to Europe.

That last possibility had a 0.00% chance of ever having happened to Assad under any circumstance short of a direct ground-troop assault by NATO including Turkey, and even then it would have been a slim chance.

Assad was going to go out fighting either way, but not every war needs to boil down into the Syrian conflict. However, it is theoretically possible where a government that may have been willing to negotiate will simply keep on fighting because there is simply no other path out for them. Libya (for example) didn't necessarily need to go the way it did.

Furthermore, It could be possible for them to be in a position to negotiate, but necessarily in the hands of the rebels. It basically "ups the ante" to complete victory for either them or the rebels.

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

Ardennes posted:

Also, to be honest, I think we are pretty much on the opposite sides politically, so enjoy.

Politics has never had anything to do with your selective judgement regarding Russia, no matter how much you think it is.

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006
Protests spread to Baghdad.

quote:

“The people want the downfall of political parties!” they chanted, a slogan similar to one used in the 2011 “Arab Spring” uprisings, as politicians struggled to form a new government.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who is seeking a second term, promised that his Shi’ite-led government would fund electricity and water projects in Basra, where the colour of tap water is often brown because it contains dirt and where garbage is piled up along many streets.

“The promises they make are all lies,” said Khaled Hassan, 42, a health worker in Basra. “We will not keep quiet.”

On Thursday, Shia Muslim cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose bloc finished first in the election, said politicians should suspend efforts to form a coalition until the protesters’ demands are met.

Sadr won the election promising to eradicate poverty and corruption and resist interference from Iran.

Sadr, whose militiamen staged uprisings against US forces after the 2003 invasion, has in the past mobilised tens of thousands of people to press his demands.

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the most powerful cleric in Iraq, has also expressed solidarity with the demonstrators.

Iraq’s Shia heartland in the south has long been neglected, first by Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein and then by Shia-dominated governments after him.

“We are demanding the sacking of the governor and removal of all corrupt officials from the province,” said Faris Abdel Karim, who helped organise a protest outside the house of the provincial governor in the city of Nasiriya, where police fired in the air, wielded batons and fired tear gas.

About 300 people demonstrated at one of Baghdad’s main squares. One held up a poster which read: “The revolution of the poor.” Riot police used water cannons to disperse the crowd.

The Shia bloc is making the right noises about reform. They might even be serious, too.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Grape posted:

Politics has never had anything to do with your selective judgement regarding Russia, no matter how much you think it is.

My knowledge base and experience does, and it should. (Also my politics is an element as well.)

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:09 on Jul 22, 2018

true.spoon
Jun 7, 2012

Ardennes posted:

Posting the story about the White Helmet resettlement? I think France24 and a much of other outlets have it. It helps if you actually are more specific about which theory you are talking about.
Why are you doing this? You obviously know what I am talking about :

quote:

Either way, what we know, It is very clear that in this context that Israel is very certainly going out of their way to help them (and if the West agrees to immediate resettlement). It is arguably for what reasons. Maybe they are that much more valuable than veteran translators? Personally, I think it is fishy, because I know Israel doesn't give about humanitarian concerns of Arabs, so there needs to be something else to it.
So is there any reputable source or any kind of evidence beyond your insinuations?

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

true.spoon posted:

So is there any reputable source or any kind of evidence beyond your insinuations?

My comments are literally based on the news presented, where do I need to present additional evidence here considering what I said?

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 20:45 on Jul 22, 2018

true.spoon
Jun 7, 2012
I will apologize insofar that your personal conspiracy theory does not appear to be pushed by Russian media as far as I can tell (at leat not by English/German language parts after cursory googling). That still does not make it very compelling though.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

Ardennes posted:

Either way, what we know, It is very clear that in this context that Israel is very certainly going out of their way to help them (and if the West agrees to immediate resettlement). It is arguably for what reasons. Maybe they are that much more valuable than veteran translators? Personally, I think it is fishy, because I know Israel doesn't give about humanitarian concerns of Arabs, so there needs to be something else to it.

Sure, there has to be some horrible underlying reason for the perfidious Zionist Entity to do what is seemingly a good thing. It couldn't be part of a pattern of small-scale humanitarian actions by Israel throughout the Syrian Civil War, or maybe that pattern also fits in to one of your many strongly held conspiracy theories.

Herstory Begins Now
Aug 5, 2003
SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>
Always nice when Ardennes decides to update us on RTs latest.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Sure, there has to be some horrible underlying reason for the perfidious Zionist Entity to do what is seemingly a good thing. It couldn't be part of a pattern of small-scale humanitarian actions by Israel throughout the Syrian Civil War, or maybe that pattern also fits in to one of your many strongly held conspiracy theories.

Yeah Israel is well...a perfidious de jure apartheid state, certainly not the only oppressive country in region, but yeah they deserve as much benefit of the doubt as the Saudis or Iran.

If the Iranians were transporting 800 Syrian government civil defense workers to Russia via the Caspian. There would be questions.

Herstory Begins Now posted:

Always nice when Ardennes decides to update us on RTs latest.

The guy before you just vetted me! :-(

Any more?

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 22:53 on Jul 22, 2018

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Absurd Alhazred posted:

Sure, there has to be some horrible underlying reason for the perfidious Zionist Entity to do what is seemingly a good thing. It couldn't be part of a pattern of small-scale humanitarian actions by Israel throughout the Syrian Civil War, or maybe that pattern also fits in to one of your many strongly held conspiracy theories.

Israel directly announced they were asked to do this by the US and UK, so I don't think it's controversial to assume it's not something they agreed with, but does point to the White Helmets' safety being of improportionate importance to the US and UK if they are throwing their weight around enough to annoy Israel.

Dr Kool-AIDS
Mar 26, 2004

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Israel directly announced they were asked to do this by the US and UK, so I don't think it's controversial to assume it's not something they agreed with, but does point to the White Helmets' safety being of improportionate importance to the US and UK if they are throwing their weight around enough to annoy Israel.

I think it's more of a 'why not?' kind of thing than something that was going to really annoy them. Like no, they weren't going to volunteer to keep the White Helmets as refugees (which is why I'm not going to give them much credit for it), but allowing them to escape Syria through their territory before going somewhere else is relatively costless for them, wins some good PR, mildly frustrates Assad, and makes some friendly governments happy. Maybe there's a slight element of humanitarian concern too, but it's easy to be concerned when it doesn't really cost you anything.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos
So... I hope I don't wake up to actual legit war with Iran.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666



:smithicide:

khwarezm
Oct 26, 2010

Deal with it.
CAPS LOCK.

Why is this man the president, we're all going to die.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

khwarezm posted:

CAPS LOCK.

Why is this man the president, we're all going to die.

there is an answer to that question. it would perhaps not make you feel better.

HorrificExistence
Jun 25, 2017

by Athanatos
at least it doesnt sound like he has that much authority, they struck down his Venezuela invasion idea

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006

HorrificExistence posted:

at least it doesnt sound like he has that much authority, they struck down his Venezuela invasion idea

Pompeo is playing ball, so... gently caress.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/22/politics/pompeo-iran-speech-intl/index.html

quote:

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo delivered a scathing speech on Iran's leadership Sunday, accusing Tehran's ruling ayatollahs of spreading violence across the Middle East and lining their own pockets with ill-gotten gains at the expense of ordinary Iranians.

"The ideologues who forcibly came to power in 1979 and remain in power today are driven by a desire to conform all of Iranian society to the tenants of the Islamic Revolution. The regime is also committed to spreading the Revolution to other countries, by force if necessary," said Pompeo during a highly anticipated address at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California.

Southern California is home to a significant portion of the Iranian diaspora living in the United States. Many of them fled Iran after the revolution that brought Iran's ayatollahs to power.

"To the regime, prosperity, security, and freedom for the Iranian people are acceptable casualties in the march to fulfill the Revolution," said Pompeo.

The secretary of state and former CIA director accused several members of Iran's leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, of participating in widespread corruption.

Khamenei, Pompeo alleged, maintains a personal off-the-books hedge fund worth $95 billion, that is untaxed and used as a "slush fund" by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Crops (IRGC). The IRGC is a branch of the country's armed with influence over practically every aspect of Iranian life.

Willie Tomg
Feb 2, 2006
James Mattis could still be the voice of reason. About Iran policy. Oh gently caress.

e; I should not have read what's going to become tomorrow's news cycle before going to sleep. poo poo sucks.

Willie Tomg fucked around with this message at 05:45 on Jul 23, 2018

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006
countdown to the first "tonight was the night trump truly became president" take from CNN starts now

HorrificExistence
Jun 25, 2017

by Athanatos
it would take months of buildup to do anything major, we'd know

ded redd
Aug 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1021242139521449985
:cripes:

Grouchio
Aug 31, 2014

Personally I'm not worried about being drafted, having narcolepsy and all. But.

I better not wake up to Tehran reduced to a radioactive crater.

If Trump declares war what would Russia do?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

I have 5 years of IRR left i cant wait to be on the front lines fighting iran

What would russia do if we declared war? Theyd theyd take their 1.6 tril economy and cry wolf and smdftb in the loving halls of the un. gently caress em they couldny do ANYTHING vs the us but spread denial and shitworm their way a little further into georgia

I love trump, blasting off a full caps lock tweet at like midnight is loving 10/10. I mean no poo poo if we get into a war hes gonna be postin liveleak videos of islamists getting blown up by hellfire missiles with poo poo like "2 HELLFIRES TO KILL 12 TERRORISTS?? SAD! "

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Nah it was this

https://mobile.twitter.com/A_Tabatabai/status/1021054685841690625

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
https://mobile.twitter.com/BaxtiyarGoran/status/1021286231592833024

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

Pompeo going all "these are evil people, they want to use force to change regimes in the Middle East" is worthy of an ironicat large enough to crush the Earth into a singularity.

Beefeater1980
Sep 12, 2008

My God, it's full of Horatios!







gently caress, I remember being in Erbil in ‘08 for a telco deal. Nice city back then.

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

LeoMarr posted:

I have 5 years of IRR left i cant wait to be on the front lines fighting iran

What would russia do if we declared war? Theyd theyd take their 1.6 tril economy and cry wolf and smdftb in the loving halls of the un. gently caress em they couldny do ANYTHING vs the us but spread denial and shitworm their way a little further into georgia

I love trump, blasting off a full caps lock tweet at like midnight is loving 10/10. I mean no poo poo if we get into a war hes gonna be postin liveleak videos of islamists getting blown up by hellfire missiles with poo poo like "2 HELLFIRES TO KILL 12 TERRORISTS?? SAD! "

I also can't wait until you're on the front lines fighting in Iran. Worked out really well in Iraq. Have fun getting your scrotum sewed back together because you went to inspect a dead dog on the side of the road which was stuffed with a coffee can full of RDX.

steinrokkan
Apr 2, 2011



Soiled Meat

Sergg posted:

I also can't wait until you're on the front lines fighting in Iran. Worked out really well in Iraq. Have fun getting your scrotum sewed back together because you went to inspect a dead dog on the side of the road which was stuffed with a coffee can full of RDX.

Well this time the dog corpse would be rather pretargeted by a Chinese / North Korean / Russian ATGM.

reignonyourparade
Nov 15, 2012

LeoMarr posted:

What would russia do if we declared war?

Worm their way into all the chunks of the american empire we'd have to abandon to actually occupy iran without the loving draft.

Saladman
Jan 12, 2010

Beefeater1980 posted:

gently caress, I remember being in Erbil in ‘08 for a telco deal. Nice city back then.

I mean, just because that one event happened doesn't really mean much as it's pretty isolated. Worrying over that is like those people Americans who say "are you worried being in Paris?? THERE ARE RTERRTIRISTS" because they have like one literally-clinically-insane fundamentalist kill a few people every year and a few politically-motivated Islamists kill a few people every couple years. Meanwhile, literally more people are murdered in the city where I grew up in the US in a single month than have been killed by Islamists in the past 10 years in all of Europe.

E: I mean sure it's still scary in Erbil but saying "nice city back then [but not now" is pretty ridiculous in response to some guys attacking a government building, especially since it doesn't even seem like their purpose is to maximize mayhem, although that's a bit premature to say.

Saladman fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Jul 23, 2018

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

Also LOL at LeoMarr thinking Russia wouldn't do anything. Our President grovels like a dog at his feet the instant Putin snaps his fingers yet somehow they're the ones with no power or leverage.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

LeoMarr is one of the worst posters in this thread and is a hair's away from the ignore list, which I reserve for only the worst idiots. Panzeh, in this thread.

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DOCTOR ZIMBARDO
May 8, 2006
Ardennes asks important questions about the white helmets imo

also I’m pretty sure the Iranians would whip us pretty badly so I’m not worried about it.

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