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Dizz posted:Good reads all around. I don't understand why people keep using the "you like socialism? WHAT ABOUT VUVUZELA" excuse though when this seems like it's mostly the cause of mismanaged funds and a failure to properly rectify it. Am I just missing something here? I agree. What tends to happen is that people use the Venezuelan example to validate their pre-existing political views. I see tons of MAGA chuds doing what you've described to justify their stance on Trump/politics in the U.S. The alternative answer that you've suggested is much more thoughtful and nuanced, I think, and this puts it beyond the grasp of a lot of people. caberham posted:So um, with this current trend of misery and starvation, how long can Venezuela hold out for? The scope of the collapse is so massive that I doubt that I'll live to see the Venezuela of my youth. Mind you, the Venezuela of my youth had massive problems, but they pale in comparison to the crisis today. Venezuela has been "broken" (for lack of a better term) since at least the early 1980s, and the rate of deterioration has been increasingly over the past several years. In other words, we're looking at a country that has severe problems with roots that are at least 40 years old. We're looking at a multi-generational recovery process. As to how long can the country hold out for, I'd say indefinitely. Suffering is an unlimited resource. The issues affecting the country are not caused by overpopulation, so no amount of depopulation would stabilize the country. Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet, so unless we see a massive shift away from fossil fuels, you'd think that we have all of the potential resources that we need to recover. The issue is that there will be no recovery as long as the PSUV is in power. Even if the PSUV were to magically leave today, we'd have to rebuild the oil industry as fishmench said, and even then there is something to be said about resource curse. What seals the deal for me is that I think that to pull off any recovery, we'd also need a succession of benevolent philosopher king-type leaders to guide the recovery, and to keep corruption, greed, and all of the demons of politics in check.
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Jul 12, 2018 15:02
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Dizz posted:Good reads all around. I don't understand why people keep using the "you like socialism? WHAT ABOUT VUVUZELA" excuse though when this seems like it's mostly the cause of mismanaged funds and a failure to properly rectify it. Am I just missing something here? I don't think it's a failure of socialist ideals altogether, but it is a failure of international socialists to recognize and oppose a budding authoritarian catastrophe just because they called themselves by the same label. It's harder to say "hey these guys have nothing to do with us" after more than a decade of saying "these guys are great and all their critics are fascists." If Venezuela's socialists weren't authoritarian, the people would have the ability to select different leaders who'd promote different policies (even potentially other, more competent socialists), but now they're stuck with these idiots who seem indifferent to the suffering they've created. Democratic accountability matters.
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Jul 12, 2018 15:35
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Venezuela was promoted internationally for over a decade as a shining beacon of socialist resistance against the evils of capitalism. I think it's fair if people enjoy a bit of schadenfreude in pointing out that it's gone to poo poo. There's also parallels between people ignoring the warning signs in Venezuela and the Soviet apologists among the leftist intelligentsia is during the cold war. It begs the question of whether the left is capable of honestly assessing the performance of any notionally leftist government at all, or whether slogans and labels will suffice for them in all cases.
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Jul 13, 2018 12:44
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fishmech posted:What Venezuela mainly needs as far as immediate fix, is to fix the oil infrastructure. Because without that they have no way to afford to do anything else or stabilize the country. I'd say that ignores the problem that caused both the shortages and oil infrastructure breakdowns: the income from oil and many other industries is being looted wholesale by the leadership and associated cronies. While the corruption remains things are not going to get much better, even if a wizard snapped his fingers and got the oil flowing again it would just fatten the bank accounts of the leadership and maybe kick the can down the road another decade or so until the scraps aren't enough to keep things running again. Oh, plus they sold a bunch of the oil interests to China IIRC, and that is unlikely to contribute anything to the Venezuelan economy. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Jul 13, 2018 |
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Jul 13, 2018 13:13
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Every single page of this thread has at least 1 post of "venezuela is starving here are the statistics to back it up" hasnt changed a loving thing. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 13, 2018 21:47
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Mukip posted:Venezuela was promoted internationally for over a decade as a shining beacon of socialist resistance against the evils of capitalism. I think it's fair if people enjoy a bit of schadenfreude in pointing out that it's gone to poo poo. There's also parallels between people ignoring the warning signs in Venezuela and the Soviet apologists among the leftist intelligentsia is during the cold war. It begs the question of whether the left is capable of honestly assessing the performance of any notionally leftist government at all, or whether slogans and labels will suffice for them in all cases. Presumably leftist schadenfreude about Donald Trump destroying the last vestiges of American idealism is also well justified. And the fact that rightists still regularly defend him shows that they are incapable of honestly assessing the performance of anyone who is on their nominal team.
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Jul 14, 2018 18:24
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Venezuela is irreparably hosed and there is no hope of recovery in this half of the century. The economy contracted 12% on the first half of this year , oil production is at sub 1960s levels. You'd need a very long and lucky streak of benevolent saints running the country for the next couple of decades just to reach 2006's GDP. The international left deserve the poo poo they're getting for supporting Chavez and Maduro. This is the worst crisis South America has ever seen and there are still leaders and former supporters such as Corbyn that have yet to make any significant comment about it. It's disgraceful, and I'm shocked that people still don't understand that it is why the populist idiots keep winning. Nothing has fueled my hate for first world politics like some tankie Californian college grad telling me I'm a fascist for standing up against a government that tortured UCV friends of mine in a place called "The Tomb" just to set an example. The left failed us, don't expect expats and refugees to have any love left for it unless people start changing their tune.
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Jul 15, 2018 11:23
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Speaking of failing people, it looks like it's our turn now. Three days ago, Minister of Foreign Affairs Jorge Arreaza tweeted a message about the ongoing Nicaragua anti-government protests that have left over 300 dead since April, many of whom have been victims of pro-government paramilitary units. Arreaza tweeted in defense of the Nicaraguan government, saying: https://twitter.com/jaarreaza/status/1018165141026824195 quote:The trending editorial line of western [news] agencies and media on the violence in Nicaragua is identical to the distorted narrative applied in Venezuela in 2017. The terrorists are the heroes of Peace [sic] and democracy. The world is upside done. This is the post-truth of oppressive capitalism Arreaza's tweet came on the same day that paramilitary units assaulted a university campus in Managua and killed one student who was hiding in a church.
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Jul 17, 2018 13:33
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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/opinion/venezuela-maduro-the-new-regional-crime-hub.html An article about how Venezuela has become the new hub of organized crime in the Americas, but for some reason it's labeled "opinion" even though it seems to all be based on investigative reporting. I guess maybe because the contributing author is not a NYTimes journalist. Nothing new, just the continued reporting of the military's complicity in drug smuggling and its active participation in general goods smuggling. What's very surprising to me is that they don't grow more cocaine in Venezuela. Wouldn't it make sense for them to cut out the Colombians? It's not like they'd have to worry about any reprisals from Colombia if they were just like "gently caress off we're going to grow, refine, and sell our own coke now." Maybe they need the sales contacts in Europe and North America and don't care enough to set up their own operations? No idea. Seems like setting up drug smuggling cartels should be much easier now given the increasingly large and desperate Venezuelan diaspora.
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Jul 17, 2018 21:07
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Saladman posted:https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/opinion/venezuela-maduro-the-new-regional-crime-hub.html I hypothesize the regime isn't smart enough to run a cocaine production line without it burning down, falling over, and sinking into the swamp.
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Jul 17, 2018 22:27
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GreyjoyBastard posted:I hypothesize the regime isn't smart enough to run a cocaine production line without it burning down, falling over, and sinking into the swamp. Or expropriating the production line, calling the people who set it up fascists etc
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Jul 17, 2018 23:32
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My guess would be that the government is afraid that the military would take charge and have a sufficiently large independent revenue stream as to have no reason to listen to the government any more.
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Jul 17, 2018 23:53
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Farmer Crack-rear end posted:My guess would be that the government is afraid that the military would take charge and have a sufficiently large independent revenue stream as to have no reason to listen to the government any more. I'd go as far as to say the military is already basically in charge. Over the last few years, Maduro has had to give them more and more power progressively, probably to keep the guys at the top from getting any ideas about a transition. They can already do whatever they want, honestly, but it's in their best interest to keep Maduro in power so no one else rocks the boat too much.
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Jul 18, 2018 01:28
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Uh, isn't the simplest explanation that coca is easiest to cultivate in the Andean region, which is far larger in Colombia than in Venezuela?
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Jul 18, 2018 02:09
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Tacky-rear end Rococco posted:Uh, isn't the simplest explanation that coca is easiest to cultivate in the Andean region, which is far larger in Colombia than in Venezuela? Whelp now I'm probably on a watch list for spending an hour reading about the growing conditions of coca plants. Seems like it would also grow well enough in the massive Guiana highlands region (grows best between like 400-2200m, with best results around 1000m, higher altitude = cooler temperatures = more coca content, up to a point, it seems like, for E. Novogranatense, the main strain used for cocaine production). Sure the Guiana highlands are remote as gently caress and you'd need to bring in fertilizer, but growing coca and manufacturing cocaine seems about a one billion times better job than artisanal gold mining. At least, when society collapses and the cities empty out for a fight in the countryside, I know which one of those two trades I'm going to go into to eke out survival in a warlord's domain. The artisanal gold mines sound like literally the worst thing ever. Working in sweltering heat in a toxic sludge bath full of mercury and malaria all day? God drat. The poster above is right that their growing region is much smaller than the other nearby Andean countries (and Venezuelan agriculture seems far less developed, I guess as a result of decades of atrophy caused by sucking on the oil tit) and the Guiana highlands would be crazy remote and so expensive / a pain in the rear end to set up as a major growing region even though it seems like it could work with the help of a few soil chemists. Still, it's still surprising that the coca production of Venezuela even in the Andean region still seems to be just a rounding error overall. Or, possibly it's such a recent development and obviously good data on coca production are hard to come by. It seems like most areas set up for coffee plantations could just switch to (or add) coca based on soil/climate conditions. Saladman fucked around with this message at 09:10 on Jul 18, 2018 |
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Jul 18, 2018 09:01
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The impression I've gotten is the government is primarily interested in seizing existing enterprises and monies. Setting up one of their own would probably feel too much like honest work for them
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Jul 18, 2018 23:16
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The first time I heard about Chavez back in 2000-something, my initial reaction was "Hell yes, a popular leftist who's not afraid to tell the US to gently caress off, juts what South America needs!". Then I saw a televised speech by the guy, where he just rants and calls George Bush "Mr. Danger" about a billion times - just completely nonsensical bullshit. I also noticed Chavez starting to appear at photo-ops with people like Lukashenko and Assad. I guess like many people in my generation, George Bush Jr and what followed after 9/11 was my awakening to just what loving assholes the US are on the international arena. Likewise, Chavez was my awakening to just what loving assholes the self-proclaimed "anti-imperialists" are.
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Jul 18, 2018 23:59
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My husband is Venezuelan and his family fled to the US to escape during Chavez. They would tell me lots of stories about people going missing during Chavez's reign, and I did find lots of articles about journalists disappearing. That sorta thing combined with his state-run tv put me in full-on 'he's a dictator' territory. Left, right, we can all become corrupt and abuse our power in the end.
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Jul 19, 2018 01:22
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Not to mention Chavez headed a failed military coup against a legitimate government before he ran for president. He already had blood on his hands due to his lust for power, before the current situation.
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Jul 19, 2018 10:12
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The IMF revised its inflation forecast for Venezuela yesterday, and is now estimating that the annualized rate will hit 1,000,000 (one million) percent at the end of 2018. This is because the government continues to print money to pay for expenses as oil production continues to plummet.
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Jul 24, 2018 14:10
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Chuck Boone posted:The IMF revised its inflation forecast for Venezuela yesterday, and is now estimating that the annualized rate will hit 1,000,000 (one million) percent at the end of 2018. This is because the government continues to print money to pay for expenses as oil production continues to plummet. That's kind of interesting, since the government also isn't printing enough money and from what it sounds like, printed money is worth approximately twice the value of theoretical money. I guess you mean 'printing money' in the metaphorical sense, i.e. they are making up numbers that they transfer to bank accounts that, theoretically, could be turned into paper money and consequently this pushes up inflation? That's a pretty crazy modern inflation when it is so bad and the government so incompetent they literally can't even print paper fast enough to keep up with demand.
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Jul 24, 2018 14:50
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Saladman posted:That's kind of interesting, since the government also isn't printing enough money and from what it sounds like, printed money is worth approximately twice the value of theoretical money. I guess you mean 'printing money' in the metaphorical sense, i.e. they are making up numbers that they transfer to bank accounts that, theoretically, could be turned into paper money and consequently this pushes up inflation? No, unfortunately the simple fact is the government os printing too much money. This is one of the times stupidity explains actions better than evil. The money is indeed printed, it just never gets to the parts of the country where it is scarce because of the inflation caused by printing too much money. This triggers people to complain about not enough money, triggering the government to print more, triggering even more inflation etc. Mind you that people are not wrong to complain about not having enough money and there’s nothing inherently wrong with inflation (it exists everywhere). Just because people play a small part in the vicious cycle does not mean that the blame is not entirely in the hands of a group of corrupt incompetents.
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Jul 24, 2018 15:33
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Well, the Venezuelan government just said they're going to save the Bolivar by removing -five- zeros rather than -three-. I guess that means the new notes, if they ever arrive, will retain some value for a couple months rather than being worth less than paper immediately upon arrival.
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Jul 27, 2018 11:59
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So, correct me if I'm wrong in this, but I believe Venezuela actually imports Bolivars and doesn't print them in the country . If inflation continues at one million loving percent, even with a devaluation, how the gently caress is the PSUV even going to continue to afford... money?
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Jul 27, 2018 12:46
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Gnumonic posted:So, correct me if I'm wrong in this, but I believe Venezuela actually imports Bolivars and doesn't print them in the country . If inflation continues at one million loving percent, even with a devaluation, how the gently caress is the PSUV even going to continue to afford... money? They still get hard currency from selling oil in USD.
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Jul 27, 2018 12:50
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Saladman posted:Well, the Venezuelan government just said they're going to save the Bolivar by removing -five- zeros rather than -three-. I guess that means the new notes, if they ever arrive, will retain some value for a couple months rather than being worth less than paper immediately upon arrival. This makes eight zeroes total since Chavismo!
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Jul 27, 2018 12:55
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Hugoon Chavez posted:This makes eight zeroes total since Chavismo! Money is a filthy tool of the bourgeoise anyway. Goods and services should only be given to the deserving, and money only serves as a corrupting tool for implementing this. Thanks PSUV for putting Venezuela into a post-currency society, returning society to its ideal evolutionary state. Mankind evolved for hundreds of thousands of years without money, so clearly money is bad. QED I wonder if Pol Pot's picture is hanging up in any government offices as inspiration (for his "return society to hunters and gatherers" concept, not for his "murder literally everyone you see" idea).
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Jul 27, 2018 14:46
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I've begun to trade milk for fruits and to occasionally pay a mechanic to fix my bike.
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Jul 29, 2018 03:25
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Blue Nation posted:I've begun to trade milk for fruits and to occasionally pay a mechanic to fix my bike. Are you able to feed your cows with pasture and hay produced on your own fields or do you supplement with a feedstock? I assume getting commercial feed must be very difficult right now. I imagine raising pigs or chickens would be a nightmarish what with how unreliable access is to foreign currency
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Jul 29, 2018 03:55
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Squalid posted:Are you able to feed your cows with pasture and hay produced on your own fields or do you supplement with a feedstock? I assume getting commercial feed must be very difficult right now. I imagine raising pigs or chickens would be a nightmarish what with how unreliable access is to foreign currency Pasture on my own fields. Right now I do have to invest in more grass seed to make new fields, and thats gonna be crazy expensive, at least in Bolivares. Most people raise chickens in their own backyards buying little feed and letting the chickens eat seeds from weeds and small insects. Pigs is the real nightmare as those need commercial feed. The most expensive thing for me is keeping the cows healthy as any given bottle of medicine is over 50-60 million Bs.
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Jul 29, 2018 16:02
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Blue Nation posted:Pasture on my own fields. Right now I do have to invest in more grass seed to make new fields, and thats gonna be crazy expensive, at least in Bolivares. Most people raise chickens in their own backyards buying little feed and letting the chickens eat seeds from weeds and small insects. Pigs is the real nightmare as those need commercial feed. How many cows do you have? Can I adopt one? I worked on my grandfather's dairy farm as a kid and cows are good friends.
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Jul 30, 2018 12:27
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Maduro has delayed the launch of the new currency until August 20. It was originally set to launch on June 4, then early August. The August 20 date is also going to get pushed back  As Saladman mentioned, the new currency launch is set to coincide with the removal of five zeroes from the Bolivar, which is an old trick that Chavez used in his day to trick people into thinking that inflation wasn't a thing. The removal of the zeroes is raising tons of questions. One interesting one is in regards to the price of gasoline. Gasoline in Venezuela is the cheapest anywhere in the world: a litre costs just Bs. 6. If you remove five zeroes from the Bolivar, then there won't be any currency with which to pay for gasoline. The PSUV hasn't announced this, but what's likely going to happen is that the price of gasoline is going to be increased substantially so that it "works" with the new currency. There are signs that the regime is looking to radically change the way that Venezuelans pay for gasoline, since Maduro announced on Saturday that there is going to be a vehicle census this coming Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Maduro wants everyone in Venezuela who owns a car or motorcycle to travel to a census point this weekend and register their vehicle for reasons that aren't entirely clear. He said that the census is necessary to ensure the "rational use" of gasoline in the country, but if you can figure out how those two things are connected, please let me know. The immediate reaction to the census announcement was overwhelmingly negative, with some critics suggesting that it was some kind of ploy to get people to sign up for the carnet de la patria (Motherland I.D.). The carnet is a regime-issued I.D. card that is supposed to be an all-in-on document to allow you access to rationed food, housing and now possibly even gasoline. Maduro has also hinted in the past that one day Venezuelans would need to have a carnet to vote, which would be like Trump saying that everyone in the U.S. needs to sign up with the Republican party to vote. That seems to be the direction in which the regime is taking this, since Maduro said yesterday afternoon that everyone who has a carnet de la patria will get a gasoline subsidy. If you don't want to register with the PSUV, then you don't get the subsidy. Saladman posted:That's kind of interesting, since the government also isn't printing enough money and from what it sounds like, printed money is worth approximately twice the value of theoretical money. I guess you mean 'printing money' in the metaphorical sense, i.e. they are making up numbers that they transfer to bank accounts that, theoretically, could be turned into paper money and consequently this pushes up inflation? As Furia explained, the government is in fact printing too much money because there isn't enough money because the government is printing too much money because there isn't enough money... and that's how you get the hyperinflation spiral.
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Aug 1, 2018 15:11
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I've heard a lot of the money isn't even printed and exists solely as electronic transfers and the like, which of course just speeds up the process
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Aug 1, 2018 18:28
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Chuck Boone posted:He said that the census is necessary to ensure the "rational use" of gasoline in the country, but if you can figure out how those two things are connected, please let me know. You can already see the writing in the wall: the government is trying to enforce an gasoline rationing system on top of disguising the highest price jump fuel has gotten ever, as well as the census being another attempt to get the general population attached to the "Deal with the Devil" thing that's the Carnet de la Patria.
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Aug 1, 2018 19:43
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Gasoline is already being rationed via a chip that was mandatory to install on cars, and motorcycle owners carry it as a carnet, there's a set amount of gasoline you can buy per month.
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Aug 2, 2018 21:54
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Blue Nation posted:Gasoline is already being rationed via a chip that was mandatory to install on cars, and motorcycle owners carry it as a carnet, there's a set amount of gasoline you can buy per month. The problem is that chip system has only been mandatory in Frontier States and it hadn't done much with the "Counterfeit" problem (read: excuse) it was supposed to solve. Until now, the only limit for buying gasoline here in Carabobo has only been depending on if service stations had any actual fuel supply at the moment... That said, networks have been one special kind of screwed in Valencia because the Government is trying to set up the platform to manage the drat census and stumbling in the process.
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Aug 3, 2018 03:07
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Found a pretty good documentary by Deutsche Welle about the current humanitarian crisis. Again, no new info for anybody up to date, but it's good to have things condensed for those who just want to catch up, from a pretty transparent source. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1IyeybE8qSs
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Aug 3, 2018 11:32
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Mukip posted:Venezuela was promoted internationally for over a decade as a shining beacon of socialist resistance against the evils of capitalism. I think it's fair if people enjoy a bit of schadenfreude in pointing out that it's gone to poo poo. There's also parallels between people ignoring the warning signs in Venezuela and the Soviet apologists among the leftist intelligentsia is during the cold war. It begs the question of whether the left is capable of honestly assessing the performance of any notionally leftist government at all, or whether slogans and labels will suffice for them in all cases. People who sincerely believe in an ideology are usually blind to it's flaws until it spirals completely out of control. At which point the problem must always be the people were doing it wrong or outside forces. This isn't really unique to leftists or this situation in general, it's human nature. The stronger the conviction and belief the more blind.
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Aug 3, 2018 20:45
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Someone just tried to kill Maduro. Apparently with a drone bomb. https://twitter.com/NTN24ve/status/1025867251856158721?s=19
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Aug 4, 2018 23:33
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fnox posted:Someone just tried to kill Maduro. Apparently with a drone bomb. shoddy drone worksmanship, what can you expect from capitalist wage-slaves rather than the noble socialist laborer
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Aug 5, 2018 00:13
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