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Ahhh the first "my commissioner did this insane/stupid poo poo" post of the new season. Now I know we're back.
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Aug 3, 2018 02:34
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| # ? May 31, 2024 14:31 |
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 why-i-wont-own-mckinnon.jpg. Industry hype between April 29 (end of draft) and July 25 (49ers broke camp) had him gain three rounds without touching a football.
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Aug 3, 2018 06:18
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I don't disagree that McKinnon's ADP requires him to actually hit his ceiling to return value, but man do I not care about May ADP at all. FF Calc drafters do not have the proper perspective on guys in May to judge them correctly. I am not surprised it rose a ton. The real reason is Matt Breida.
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Aug 3, 2018 08:13
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Ben Nevis posted:It just came to me. The best team name. Recent. Pop culture-y. A huge number of team logo options. The only downside is having to draft Amari Cooper. But I'd think captaining This is Amari Co. to the finals would be worth it. Sorry, I already came up with this years best team name. If You want to kill it, best prepare... it’s gonna Die Hard: Gesicki Kai Trey, Butker Tucker Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 09:18 on Aug 3, 2018 |
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Aug 3, 2018 09:16
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Braksgirl posted:Hi, the wife here. I'm really kind of pissed about this league and I may not stay in if the commissioner doesn't give me a satisfactory answer to this draft order. Which would be a shame, because it's an all-women league and it would be fun. But the commissioner did a little talking down to me and tried to explain to me how fantasy football works. Taking all of my control not to let her know that I'm a loving 20 team league champion, bitch. You don't even know who you're talking to. Yeah, gently caress that. Glad you got.
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Aug 3, 2018 12:42
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Benches got upped to 12 what the gently caress WHY HAVE A WAIVER WIRE
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Aug 3, 2018 13:00
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ZenVulgarity posted:Benches got upped to 12 what the gently caress WHY HAVE A WAIVER WIRE This would be acceptable only in a gimmick league where add/drops are disabled
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Aug 3, 2018 14:29
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Tiptoes posted:I don't disagree that McKinnon's ADP requires him to actually hit his ceiling to return value, but man do I not care about May ADP at all. FF Calc drafters do not have the proper perspective on guys in May to judge them correctly. I am not surprised it rose a ton. Nothing changed between those two dates except industry navel gazing was the point there. There was no proper perspective that could have changed his ADP from the fifth round to the second round while the entire league was on vacation.
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Aug 3, 2018 14:36
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Do you really expect the dudes bored and mock drafting on FFCalc in May to have their rankings finalized? They're going to read information as it is published over the summer and change their minds about players. It's weird to say that's due to "industry navel gazing" and not just basic research. Edit: In our first goon slow draft, McKinnon went 3.11 and that was early May. Goons knew what was up. Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Aug 3, 2018 |
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Aug 3, 2018 15:12
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So what's dezs dynasty value at this point? 0? I got offered a 3rd round pick for him in 2019 and almost think that's best offer lol
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Aug 3, 2018 15:54
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MacheteZombie posted:So what's dezs dynasty value at this point? 0? I'd take that in a second. He's washed.
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Aug 3, 2018 16:03
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Tiptoes posted:Do you really expect the dudes bored and mock drafting on FFCalc in May to have their rankings finalized? They're going to read information as it is published over the summer and change their minds about players. It's weird to say that's due to "industry navel gazing" and not just basic research. The point is that McKinnon hype escalated over those months in large part because of the echo chamber that is offseason FF writing. There was literally not one shred of new information in the two months between the draft and camp, but his stock shot up like crazy. In other news, how do you guys value Guice? I am trying to get as many shares as I can get at his current ADP (mid-third round). I also think Derrick Henry is still majorly undervalued. Mikey Purp fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Aug 3, 2018 |
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Aug 3, 2018 16:18
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Mikey Purp posted:The point is that McKinnon hype escalated over those months in large part because of the echo chamber that is offseason FF writing. There was literally not one shred of new information in the two months between the draft and camp, but his stock shot up like crazy.  it's the industry doing mock drafts and being "in" on McKinnon, then seeing that other people are more "in" on McKinnon, so if they want McKinnon, they have to get him earlier. Then this forms their ranks and that shapes ADP. It's been a stacking effect. This same process vaulted CJA into the first round a few years ago.Tiptoes posted:Edit: In our first goon slow draft, McKinnon went 3.11 and that was early May. Goons knew what was up. His FF Calculator ADP for most of May was 4.03 so 
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Aug 3, 2018 16:19
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Mikey Purp posted:I also think Derrick Henry is still majorly undervalued. I feel like that 1a 1b quote from the titans a month ago really cooled the Henry hype train. I feel like he's probably undervalued now.
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Aug 3, 2018 16:28
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MacheteZombie posted:So what's dezs dynasty value at this point? 0? A 3rd is next to worthless, I'd rather hold Dez and hope for WR3 or 4 value, either of which is better than a random 3rd
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Aug 3, 2018 16:33
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I took the deal. E I was never a dez fan so he wasnt worth much to me already. My co owner only traded for him because hes a cowboys fan
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Aug 3, 2018 16:43
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Hi pretty college football fantasy league folks - I'll be setting up the league for 2018 over the next few days. Apologies for the delay.
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Aug 3, 2018 17:03
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N: https://twitter.com/4for4football/status/1025962488154738688 V: Geronimooooooo 
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Aug 5, 2018 05:38
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Spoeank posted:N: Yessssssssssssss. 
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Aug 5, 2018 06:25
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Yessssssssssssss. That sure is a team, haha
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Aug 5, 2018 07:15
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sourdough posted:That sure is a team, haha My current SA Scott Bowl team is currently looking a little similar. RB David Johnson TE Zach Ertz QB Tom Brady WR TY Hilton RB Lamar Miller TE Delanie Walker TE Jordan Reed still draftin'.
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Aug 5, 2018 08:36
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https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/1025840355252551681 Bad news for Michel although it could've been worse. Burkhead's ADP will climb but he ought to be a great value at wherever it lands. Michel's ADP should drop like a rock and I'm still buying most likely. He'll have a role after he bounces back unless Jeremy Hill wows them. Tiptoes fucked around with this message at 09:21 on Aug 5, 2018 |
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Aug 5, 2018 09:16
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sourdough posted:That sure is a team, haha Yup. SFB8 uses half PPR, half PPFD, and TEs get a bonus to both.
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Aug 5, 2018 12:48
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12 Team .5 PPR need to select 1 keeper: Collins Robinson Ingram Brady Gordon Mainly debating between Collins or Robinson with an outside idea of holding Brady.
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Aug 5, 2018 16:59
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Alfalfa posted:12 Team .5 PPR need to select 1 keeper: Robinson. I assume Gordon is Josh. What do you give up to keep them? Nothing?
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Aug 5, 2018 17:05
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Robinson. I assume Gordon is Josh. What do you give up to keep them? Nothing? 4th rounder for Allen Robinson, Alex Colllins, or Josh Gordon. 5th for Brady or Ingram.
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Aug 5, 2018 17:16
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Alfalfa posted:12 Team .5 PPR need to select 1 keeper: I think I'd keep Collins.
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Aug 5, 2018 17:28
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Alfalfa posted:12 Team .5 PPR need to select 1 keeper: This basically comes down to who you want as a player because you're receiving literally zero keeper value out of all of them. If you're deciding now, you're likely locking in Josh Gordon's value at an ADP that will probably continue to slip if he's out for training camp, which seems to be the case. Ingram, you're keeping a guy who is no guarantee to not be in Payton's dog house when he returns. Brady... Team #GradualDecline That leaves it between Collins and Robinson. I'll go with the guy whose usage is already locked in in an offense that loves to throw to the RB over the guy who is switching teams to a new, crowded offense with a second year QB who wasn't allowed to sling it last year (though that'll change this year; the efficacy is still a question mark). It's close but I would go Collins over A-Rob in a squeaker. Spoeank fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Aug 5, 2018 |
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Aug 5, 2018 17:43
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Game of Roto is a free something awful dot com auction PPR league with a limited keeper system and we need 4 more owners to begin season 7! We're expanding from 12 to 14 teams, and 2 old teams need owners too. Are you reading a SA fantasy thread? YOU should join this league! Please join, I love auctions and this league is gonna own! Check it out! Draft with meeeeee!
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Aug 5, 2018 18:45
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I get the push on Collins, but I'm curious as to how likely it is that he's "locked in". Chris Harris in particular is pushing the notion that Collins is just another guy, and that Dixon's superior talent might at least disrupt the expectation of a solid carry share and turn Baltimore into more of a committee.
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Aug 5, 2018 19:00
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I get the push on Collins, but I'm curious as to how likely it is that he's "locked in". Chris Harris in particular is pushing the notion that Collins is just another guy, and that Dixon's superior talent might at least disrupt the expectation of a solid carry share and turn Baltimore into more of a committee. Wouldn't Dixon's superior talent have pushed through by now, if that's the case?
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Aug 5, 2018 19:14
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I get the push on Collins, but I'm curious as to how likely it is that he's "locked in". Chris Harris in particular is pushing the notion that Collins is just another guy, and that Dixon's superior talent might at least disrupt the expectation of a solid carry share and turn Baltimore into more of a committee. I think that come 2018, we are too eager to put a situation aside due to it being a committee. Last year, only 11 players had more than 50% of their team's rushes + RB Targets (Bell, Gordon, Gurley, Hunt, McCoy, Hyde, Howard, Gore, CJA, Lamar Miller and Zeke). Only Bell, Gordon, Gurley, Hunt and McCoy topped 60% of RB opportunities. Even in a committee, a player can still be valuable without over 50% of the touches, especially given that it is a rarity now. Collins was highly efficient when he had the ball in his hand last season, posting a yards per reception nearly identical to Christian McCaffrey (8.13 vs 8.14) and aYPC just shy of Gurley (4.59 vs 4.68). He'll be fine and dandy, even with the return of Kenneth Dixon from suspension/knee injury. FWIW, Dixon already missed a week of practice with a different lower body injury (hamstring), so he may not be nipping at Collins' heels as much as we think. Harris doesn't like Collins because he got "lucky" with huge runs. Not recognizing that turning large runs into huge ones is a skill is a massive blind spot in harris's evaluations, and he chalks it up to luck. For example, he is calling Devontae Booker extremely unlucky because he doesn't have any long runs of note so far in his career, when that is likely just bad angles, bad vision, and bad open field skills. Spoeank fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Aug 5, 2018 |
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Aug 5, 2018 19:50
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Sataere posted:Wouldn't Dixon's superior talent have pushed through by now, if that's the case? He missed all of 2017. Spoeank posted:I think that come 2018, we are too eager to put a situation aside due to it being a committee. Last year, only 11 players had more than 50% of their team's rushes + RB Targets (Bell, Gordon, Gurley, Hunt, McCoy, Hyde, Howard, Gore, CJA, Lamar Miller and Zeke). Only Bell, Gordon, Gurley, Hunt and McCoy topped 60% of RB opportunities. Even in a committee, a player can still be valuable without over 50% of the touches, especially given that it is a rarity now. YPC can be a deceptive stat. Gurley went from 4.8 YPC in 2015 to 3.2 in 2016, then back up to 4.7 in 2017. As Harris puts it, YPC isn't random but it's a trailing indicator. That dovetails into the conversation about long runs, since it's directly related. Reading Harris' entry on Booker, it seems like there are similarities to Collins. He seems to regard both as milquetoast talents that could do well, but if so it's more situation than skill. As for Dixon, he's also pretty adamant that the unknowns are insane and it's rare to see a player come back from two seasons of injury. If I understand your argument correctly, you're asserting that Collins has demonstrated enough skill that even with a reduced workload his efficiency would make him a viable starter. Harris seems to be arguing the opposite, instead saying the film shows Collins to be a league-average back who could easily falter given the small sample sizes and high variability of the NFL. Personally I'm on the fence, but looking at ADP (4.01 in half PPR on FFC) I'd rather grab Guice, Diggs, Fitzgerald, or Cooper.
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Aug 5, 2018 20:15
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Oh you're not wrong. His adp has better options there, and is likely nearly exclusively from people who need an RB2 after getting a WR or Gronk. It just got me curious about market shares so I did a little digging.
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Aug 5, 2018 20:17
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Spoeank posted:Oh you're not wrong. His adp has better options there, and is likely nearly exclusively from people who need an RB2 after getting a WR or Gronk. I dig the info. Thanks for doing it.
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Aug 5, 2018 20:28
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I get the push on Collins, but I'm curious as to how likely it is that he's "locked in". Chris Harris in particular is pushing the notion that Collins is just another guy, and that Dixon's superior talent might at least disrupt the expectation of a solid carry share and turn Baltimore into more of a committee. On the other hand, PFF grades Collins as the top running RB last season, and was #10 out of 53 in elusive rating. And, this is an offense that supported 2 RB2s last season (and a few similar weeks from a third player in woodhead). Collins had 212 carries and 36 targets; Buck had 153 + 60; Woodhead had 14+39; West had 39 + 4. So last season, Baltimore had 418 carries (Collins 212), and 139 RB targets (Collins 36). 557 total RB opportunities; Collins was a RB2 with a 44% share, and Buck was a RB2 with a 38% share. Collins was more efficient than Buck last season per carry or target. Even if Dixon held the bulk of the volume -- say 60%, which is unlikely given his history of injuries -- Collins could reliably be considered a RB2 IMO. But in my eyes, it is more likely that Collins is the 2 down back and Dixon is the COP back that owns the third down. Given that, I suspect we can expect a moderate increase in Collins' carry rate (which makes sense, since he was a low option for the first several weeks), and probably about the same for targets. If the offense is better (maybe?) that will also improve Collins' scoring since he's most likely the goal line back. In my experience (though I haven't looked at ADPs), Collins is going at the same time/cost as Drake and the non-barkley/guice rookies. I think of that bunch, he's likely to be the best this year. Zauper fucked around with this message at 20:34 on Aug 5, 2018 |
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Aug 5, 2018 20:31
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:He missed all of 2017. Yeah and he was suspended twice for a PED violation. That's kind of the point I was making. Why should we trust him? If he's really the superior talent, something would have shown by now. I think pissing hot and getting injured for a season rarely end with the player in question coming back to have a breakout season. I could be wrong though, I definitely haven't done the research.
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Aug 5, 2018 20:52
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Sataere posted:Yeah and he was suspended twice for a PED violation. That's kind of the point I was making. Why should we trust him? If he's really the superior talent, something would have shown by now. I think pissing hot and getting injured for a season rarely end with the player in question coming back to have a breakout season. I could be wrong though, I definitely haven't done the research. And it's not like he was a first or even second round pick. He was what, a 4th rounder? So it's not like he has amazing draft pedigree.
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Aug 5, 2018 20:55
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Zauper posted:On the other hand, PFF grades Collins as the top running RB last season, and was #10 out of 53 in elusive rating. And, this is an offense that supported 2 RB2s last season (and a few similar weeks from a third player in woodhead). ADP for Collins in half PPR is around 4.01 according to FFC. The 5 in front of him are Gordon, Diggs, Guice, Rodgers, and Fitzgerald. After him are Cooper, Ertz, Ajay, Penny, and D. Thomas. I'm not sure what to make of PFF. The top 10 players were Kamara, Lewis, Collins, Gurley, Hunt, McKinnon, Duke Johnson, Anderson, Cohen, and Kenyan Drake. As popular as the site is, it's difficult to ignore that the rankings are made without an understanding of the context of the player's role. That adds an element of subjectivity to the discussion. For example PFF grades Collins as a 38.8 in receiving even though he got 23 receptions for 187 yards (as Spoeank put it the same yards/reception as McCaffrey). Does that mean Collins is a lovely receiver? Buck Allen scored a 68.7 overall to Collins 83.4, with a 71.0 in receiving. Does that means that Allen is a third down back? To what extent are PFF grades predictive in nature? Gurley got a 71 in 2015, a 57.3 in 2016, and an 82.6 in 2017. What does that mean for 2018? I get the feeling that PFF grades are a lot like YPC; an interesting indication of what a player has done, but not necessarily a predictor of what they will do. That's why I'm leaning towards a more film-oriented analysis like what Chris Harris does and Matt Harmon's Reception Perception.
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Aug 5, 2018 21:08
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| # ? May 31, 2024 14:31 |
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We are all gonna be self quoting our posts in 2-3 months about how wrong we were about everything, as usual, as we trot out Alfred Blue as our RB1 again.
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Aug 5, 2018 21:39
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