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KaptainKrunk posted:Do the Taliban really have any reason to negotiate with the government when they're inflicting such high casualties on army and police forces? It's impossible to say because we have a very poor idea of the Taliban's grand strategy and very little data regarding actual circumstances on the ground in Afghanistan. There are vast regions of the country where its just impossible for western civilians to even know who's in control. The Taliban leadership haven't really shifted their negotiating position much. Their position on negotiations is that all foreign forces should withdraw and they should be acknowledged as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, and then they will talk peace.
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Aug 14, 2018 19:11
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By all foreign forces, do they include Pakistan's proxies?
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Aug 14, 2018 19:12
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Squalid posted:The Taliban leadership haven't really shifted their negotiating position much. Their position on negotiations is that all foreign forces should withdraw and they should be acknowledged as the legitimate government of Afghanistan, and then they will talk peace. There was an article not long ago saying they'd agreed in principle to some American forces remaining.
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Aug 14, 2018 19:14
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https://twitter.com/AbbyMartin/status/1029358730616418305
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Aug 14, 2018 19:21
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Cat Mattress posted:By all foreign forces, do they include Pakistan's proxies? Probably not, since the Taliban themselves are a Pakistani proxy.
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Aug 14, 2018 19:30
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Sergg posted:UN report says there are still about 20,000 to 30,000 ISIS fighters in Iraq & Syria. They have about 4,000 fighters in Afghanistan but the Taliban has been wrecking their poo poo recently and forced the bulk of their northern guys to surrender to the government. Honestly that's pretty low considering they were in control of an area the size of Britain a few years ago. Civilian cleanup crews are still digging bodies out of the rubble of Raqqa and Mosul. Bodies buried/mummified in the sand are dangerous because they might be booby-trapped or wearing bomb vests. Saladman posted:Well, 20'000 fighters could mean anything to be honest. It probably means "every able-bodied male between the ages of 12 and 40" because otherwise that number makes zero sense, as there are no more than 150k people total under ISIS-controlled territory, probably less, and almost all of whom are in Hajin. I don't think the original quote said "organized" either. I imagine most of the organized fighters are buried under rubble in Raqqa and Mosul. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/syria-isis-mosul-conflict-iraq-us-uk-kurds-anniversary-a8439181.html quote:Several hundred suicide bombers and 4,000 fighters belonging to Isis are preparing to defend Hajin in eastern Syria close to the border with Iraq. The town is the last stronghold of the Islamic State, the militarised Islamic cult that three years ago controlled territory the size of Great Britain.  And now I have to ask if those 200 children are included in that "4,000 Daesh" number. Is a child suicide bomber considered a fighter? Is ISIS killing my humanity that I have to ask that question in a non-hypothetical manner? (Yes to the second part.) Saladin Rising fucked around with this message at 21:27 on Aug 14, 2018 |
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Aug 14, 2018 21:23
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KaptainKrunk posted:Do the Taliban really have any reason to negotiate with the government when they're inflicting such high casualties on army and police forces? As soon as American military power is out, they will take whatever they want, wherever they want. The security forces can barely hold a capital with US CAS, no chance when its gone.
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Aug 14, 2018 23:17
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Saladin Rising posted:Yeah, there is no way in hell ISIS has 20,000 actual, able-bodied, willing to continue fighting fighters left. They've got a couple thousand dudes in the Hajin area at most, the only way you get to the 20,000 number is if you call half the people left in Hajin fighters. This article gives more realistic numbers from sources on the ground: They're probably estimating thousands of sleepers spread throughout Iraq & Syria. Remember ISIS had tens of thousands of members before they ever controlled any territory.
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Aug 14, 2018 23:44
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pro starcraft loser posted:As soon as American military power is out, they will take whatever they want, wherever they want. The security forces can barely hold a capital with US CAS, no chance when its gone. The US can supply CAS forever if we want to. As long as bodies aren't coming home, nobody notices or cares. Even if we stop and the Taliban starts grabbing poo poo, we can always help the government take it back like we helped the Iraqi government take back Mosul. The crisis could conceivably even force the government to get their poo poo together and professionalize like the Iraqis did, though I wouldn't bet on it.
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Aug 14, 2018 23:53
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Sergg posted:They're probably estimating thousands of sleepers spread throughout Iraq & Syria. Remember ISIS had tens of thousands of members before they ever controlled any territory. Every child is an enemy combatant.
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Aug 15, 2018 00:27
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Everyone who moves is ISIS. Everyone who stands still is well-disciplined ISIS.
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Aug 15, 2018 00:39
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I/P is thataway.
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Aug 15, 2018 03:06
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pro starcraft loser posted:As soon as American military power is out, they will take whatever they want, wherever they want. The security forces can barely hold a capital with US CAS, no chance when its gone. They were never able to take whatever, wherever they wanted. Even at the height of their power they mostly controlled the Pashtun majority areas in the Southern and central regions. Militias like the Taliban tend to rely heavily on local support and have a lot of trouble operating away from friendly areas. The entire reason the country has been so unstable is that none of the major factions have majority control of the entire country and they all tend to mistrust and dislike the others. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 04:29 on Aug 15, 2018 |
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Aug 15, 2018 04:14
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Warbadger posted:They were never able to take whatever, wherever they wanted. Even at the height of their power they did not control many areas outside of the Pashtun majority areas in the Southern and central regions. Militias like the Taliban tend to rely heavily on local support and have a lot of trouble operating away from friendly areas. True. Still though the ANA is in a pretty bad spot right now. Today the Taliban completely destroyed a garrison in the north of the country. There's not much reliable news but ToloNews, an Afghan online publications, reports that the Taliban cut off and besieged a base for two days, killing 30+ defenders, and then another 40+ survivors surrendered. According to the Taliban the prisoners were conscripted into their own forces. This is the height of the Afghan fighting season so you expect major clashes to occur, but even so this has been a pretty rough week.
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Aug 15, 2018 04:33
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Theres NO WAY on earth Isis has 30k actual fighting men. Maybe 30k men exist under isis that are between 14 to 72, not a true reflectiom of fighters
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Aug 15, 2018 06:37
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Squalid posted:True. Still though the ANA is in a pretty bad spot right now. Today the Taliban completely destroyed a garrison in the north of the country. There's not much reliable news but ToloNews, an Afghan online publications, reports that the Taliban cut off and besieged a base for two days, killing 30+ defenders, and then another 40+ survivors surrendered. According to the Taliban the prisoners were conscripted into their own forces. This is the height of the Afghan fighting season so you expect major clashes to occur, but even so this has been a pretty rough week. Taliban used fleeting retreats to create bunched up ana guys getting duked 3 or 4 in short volleys. Pretty nasty. Few guys high as poo poo tried to run away and got killed 5 or 6 right there. After that the taliban literlly brought nvgs in from another unit and reaked havok on the garrison all night. The west part of the garrison got raided in rapid succession all day 2nd day. 2nd night of no sleep ruined the defenders morale. Surrender shortly after that. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 06:57 on Aug 15, 2018 |
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Aug 15, 2018 06:45
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CrazyLoon posted:Everyone who moves is ISIS. Everyone who stands still is well-disciplined ISIS. That was pretty much their approach to male Sunnis when the Shiite militias took ISIS territory.
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Aug 15, 2018 06:59
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20,000 is a tiny number considering it's split between 2 countries with a combined population of 51 million. With the number of dead and refugees it's probably closer to 47, maybe 46 million. The UN estimated they still had a few thousand foreign fighters but the bulk are domestic members. I dunno how enthusiastic they are about bringing the glorious caliphate back. Probably a bunch of them are guys with a leg blown off who were in the local hospital when their town fell to Kurdish forces. I imagine there's also a good number who sat on the sidelines and watched every other male in their family get shot and dumped in a ditch and is now out for revenge. Maybe a good number are just poor fuckers stranded with official membership cards who are about as ISIS as I am still Catholic.
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Aug 15, 2018 07:32
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Sergg posted:20,000 is a tiny number considering it's split between 2 countries with a combined population of 51 million. With the number of dead and refugees it's probably closer to 47, maybe 46 million. The UN estimated they still had a few thousand foreign fighters but the bulk are domestic members. I dunno how enthusiastic they are about bringing the glorious caliphate back. Probably a bunch of them are guys with a leg blown off who were in the local hospital when their town fell to Kurdish forces. I imagine there's also a good number who sat on the sidelines and watched every other male in their family get shot and dumped in a ditch and is now out for revenge. Maybe a good number are just poor fuckers stranded with official membership cards who are about as ISIS as I am still Catholic. There are still nazis and hitlers been dead for 70 years. Isis will be the same way, kids still watch isis propaganda in Iraq currently, maybe it will be rebranded but this area of iraq has been the wild west forever. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Aug 15, 2018 |
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Aug 15, 2018 08:28
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Sergg posted:20,000 is a tiny number considering it's split between 2 countries with a combined population of 51 million. With the number of dead and refugees it's probably closer to 47, maybe 46 million. The UN estimated they still had a few thousand foreign fighters but the bulk are domestic members. I dunno how enthusiastic they are about bringing the glorious caliphate back. Probably a bunch of them are guys with a leg blown off who were in the local hospital when their town fell to Kurdish forces. I imagine there's also a good number who sat on the sidelines and watched every other male in their family get shot and dumped in a ditch and is now out for revenge. Maybe a good number are just poor fuckers stranded with official membership cards who are about as ISIS as I am still Catholic.
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Aug 15, 2018 18:46
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Turkish lira is recovering, thanks to a $15b investment pledge from Qatar.
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Aug 15, 2018 19:40
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enraged_camel posted:Turkish lira is recovering, thanks to a $15b investment pledge from Qatar. har har, eat poo poo middle eastern fascists. To be honest though, I dont think he's out of the woods by a long shot, Also, I dont think this will really solve the issues at hand, Erdogan has to fundamentally change the way he's running the economy to really shape up the economy and make sure this poo poo doesnt get worse, and it's time to admit that he's been committing alot of mistakes recently and he has to stop alot of the corruption and cronyism in his government.
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Aug 15, 2018 21:11
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enraged_camel posted:Turkish lira is recovering, thanks to a $15b investment pledge from Qatar. Turkey had Qatar's back when it's neighbors placed it under blockade last year. Turkey supplied nearly 200,000 tons of vegetables a day and most of Qatar's dairy needs. That choice is paying dividends now.
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Aug 15, 2018 21:17
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Al-Saqr posted:har har, eat poo poo middle eastern fascists. Those are features, not bugs, of Erdogan's approach to governance. Also as a middle eastern fascist he isn't eating poo poo from such a development. Grape fucked around with this message at 21:20 on Aug 15, 2018 |
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Aug 15, 2018 21:18
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Things Erdogan isn't going to do, no matter what:
He's been in power for too long to be redeemable, his downward spiral will not be stopped as long as he's in charge.
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Aug 15, 2018 21:38
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Erdogan is not thinking through his mistakes, he is instead sitting at his desk, straining himself and ignoring the clock. Hard at work, sweating, stressing, and slamming his fists on the table. There must be, MUST be a way. To piss off Georgia, the last remaining neighboring country that doesn't hate them.
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Aug 15, 2018 22:00
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how many wells did Erdogan try to tap before qatar gave him water. That's the real question, and where did Qatar get the money? Why drop 15b when you're under siege, There must be a return that is greater than 15b, Qatar's having an existential crisis right now with the sauds planning invasions etc.
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Aug 16, 2018 03:24
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LeoMarr posted:how many wells did Erdogan try to tap before qatar gave him water. That's the real question, and where did Qatar get the money? Why drop 15b when you're under siege, There must be a return that is greater than 15b, Qatar's having an existential crisis right now with the sauds planning invasions etc. Presumably Qatar is invested in cultivating their mid-east nonallignment pact.
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Aug 16, 2018 03:38
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LeoMarr posted:how many wells did Erdogan try to tap before qatar gave him water. That's the real question, and where did Qatar get the money? Why drop 15b when you're under siege, There must be a return that is greater than 15b, Qatar's having an existential crisis right now with the sauds planning invasions etc. literally three posts above dude: OhFunny posted:Turkey had Qatar's back when it's neighbors placed it under blockade last year. Turkey supplied nearly 200,000 tons of vegetables a day and most of Qatar's dairy needs.
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Aug 16, 2018 03:42
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enraged_camel posted:literally three posts above dude: Yes obviously. But they still had to ask for that support. They didnt know trump was going to launch an economic war against them this year during the qatar crisis last year. Qatar didnt up and decide to give Turkey 15b. I don't want to go into what ifs too heavily, but Qatar has to be receiving some future benefit from Turkey for helping them now, Qatar was in a great position to negotiate something out of turkey to release the aid. They didnt walk in and go "Oh yeah turkey good guys, helped us during a crisis so we will ask nothing in return and pledge 15b to the cause". That's not sensible. Qataris are businessmen at heart, just because turkey helped them doesn't mean they are not going to come out of the room without a win win.
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Aug 16, 2018 03:51
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Stronger relations between Qatar and Turkey further dissuade KSA's invasion ambitions.
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Aug 16, 2018 04:10
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Conspiratiorist posted:Stronger relations between Qatar and Turkey further dissuade KSA's invasion ambitions. Tying turkey to Qatars fate. Easy how a large scale conflict can happen when everyone is in intertwined alliances. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 04:23
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Besides the logistical assistance when Saudi/Emirates tried to blockade Qatar, Turkey also lent military aid. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/12/171227051912500.html In other Turkish news, China will just buy the country wholesale. http://www.atimes.com/article/china-will-buy-turkey-on-the-cheap/ David P. Goldman posted:Turkey’s economy is likely to shrink by 10% to 20% before the bleeding stops, as I predicted June 12. Erdogan’s supposed economic miracle followed the old formula of Third World kleptocracies of the past, namely massive domestic credit issuance supported by massive foreign borrowing. Turks bought foreign consumer goods with the proceeds and the country’s current account deficit swelled to 6.5% of national output. That’s close to where the Greek current account deficit stood in early 2012 when the country’s economy imploded. Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 17:10 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 10:00
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China wants West Turkestan to complete the set. 50 years from now: "The historical record is clear that the inhabitants of Anatolia have always been Han Chinese." Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 18:36 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 18:34
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Sinteres posted:China wants West Turkestan to complete the set.
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Aug 16, 2018 18:51
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Sinteres posted:China wants West Turkestan to complete the set. Well, the original turkic peoples emigrated to central Asia and Anatolia from Mongolia and Xinjiang so that narrative is likely sellable to Han supremacists even today 
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Aug 16, 2018 19:07
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Sinteres posted:China wants West Turkestan to complete the set. "We sent the Turkic tribes packing westward, and by god we'll claim anywhere they ended up." EDIT: Greeks and Iranians: lol baby Turks, no history horsemen, stole our poo poo because they got none of their own Turks:  China: Hey buddy, I got 5000 years history to sell ya, just one little condition... Grape fucked around with this message at 19:21 on Aug 16, 2018 |
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Aug 16, 2018 19:17
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They should throw the case out on the grounds that Erdogan isn't all that friendly: https://twitter.com/sarahemclaugh/status/1030162311896621056
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Aug 16, 2018 19:44
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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1030235363258851328 He's already forgotten the dude's name. 
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Aug 17, 2018 01:02
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Surprised he didn't call him Obi-wan.
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Aug 17, 2018 01:11
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