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Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

The Butcher posted:

HMMJ? You should be sitting pretty right now then. Obvs I'm bad at this but I'd expect it to peter off towards legalization day, I'd sell sometime before.

Made good money off that one but wish it didn't have dumb poo poo like SMG in it taking up such a big chunk.

No, another fund with a mix of real companies and weed companies in it, so it's not a complete gamble (no pun intended, P&G actually are in the fund). And I just got into it, so there's no return yet. The fund's performance in the last year has been pretty significant already, but there's still room for it to go up, and I'm not looking for a huge payoff. Plus I didn't put much money into it (unlike a house that cannot be diversified, amirite) so its more for fun than anything else.

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Evis
Feb 28, 2007
Flying Spaghetti Monster

I like being able to travel to the US. There’s no way I’d touch a weed fund until border guards stop giving lifetime bans to people entering the country if they’ve invested in anything related to that industry.

Fuzzy Mammal
Aug 15, 2001

Lipstick Apathy
And I thought I was paranoid sometimes lol.

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

Evis posted:

I like being able to travel to the US. There’s no way I’d touch a weed fund until border guards stop giving lifetime bans to people entering the country if they’ve invested in anything related to that industry.

Yeah, that's a bit of an overreaction. The fund is an alternative health fund. I'm not a shareholder, I have shares in an investment fund.

Plus, the guy who got himself in all that trouble apparently was travelling with all sorts of drug paraphernalia in his car on the front seat.

James Baud
May 24, 2015

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Lol at the low mortgage:


Edit: Source / Detail

James Baud fucked around with this message at 03:28 on Aug 19, 2018

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

James Baud posted:

Lol at the low mortgage:


Definitely need to save $60k a year for 18 years in a tax advantaged account to be able to afford college for 2 kids these days.

Kommienzuspadt
Apr 28, 2004

U like it

blah_blah posted:

Definitely need to save $60k a year for 18 years in a tax advantaged account to be able to afford college for 2 kids these days.

Also gotta give away another $25k in charity per year too.

Horseshoe theory
Mar 7, 2005

James Baud posted:

Lol at the low mortgage:


Edit: Source / Detail

Where in NYC (except maybe Forest Hills Gardens) are you going to have ridiculous landscaping costs to maintain on properties, anyway? :thunk:

Kommienzuspadt posted:

Also gotta give away another $25k in charity per year too.

I like how political fundraising got put in charity, even though it's not charity and not tax deductible as charity.

Edit: Also if they're that wealthy they probably have a summer house in the Hamptons or Martha's Vineyard.

Horseshoe theory fucked around with this message at 03:55 on Aug 19, 2018

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

James Baud posted:

Lol at the low mortgage:


Edit: Source / Detail

Yeah, because this is representative of so many people!

James Baud
May 24, 2015

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Yeah, because this is representative of so many people!

Well, my favourite part is the alarm in the comments on the OP at how high their mortgage is since it'll be a big problem if she loses the job.

When, of course, by Vancouver standards you should be so lucky as to get a nice place for 1.5m (+12-25%)

Dinosaurtrain
Mar 7, 2018

by R. Guyovich
Yes but house prices in Vancouver will never go down so it's a risk free investment.

Dinosaurtrain
Mar 7, 2018

by R. Guyovich
https://twitter.com/vanreport/status/1030953165451980800?s=21

Unequivocal proof that cacs make housing unaffordable. The Vancouverite is still sadly crippled by the manacles of CACsand the chains of sfh zoning. One hundred years later, the Vancouverite lives on a lonely island of poverty in the midst of a vast ocean of material prosperity. One hundred years later, the Vancouverite is still languished in the corners of Canadian society and finds himself an exile in his own land. Mayor Gregor, free is from these chains of red tape and let the developers deliver us from the shame of renting.

Dinosaurtrain
Mar 7, 2018

by R. Guyovich
https://twitter.com/rohanarezel/status/1030979119800967168?s=21

But housing in Vancouver is actually affordable here look at my GitHub filled with R data science

Evis
Feb 28, 2007
Flying Spaghetti Monster

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Yeah, that's a bit of an overreaction. The fund is an alternative health fund. I'm not a shareholder, I have shares in an investment fund.

Plus, the guy who got himself in all that trouble apparently was travelling with all sorts of drug paraphernalia in his car on the front seat.

Given that added detail the story makes more sense. That was not included in the articles I read.

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

Evis posted:

Given that added detail the story makes more sense. That was not included in the articles I read.

No, this pertinent detail never made the press. Supposedly well known in law enforcement circles that there was more to the story. My information is second hand, so it could well be wrong, but I have no reason to disbelieve this person.

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

Dinosaurtrain posted:

https://twitter.com/rohanarezel/status/1030979119800967168?s=21

But housing in Vancouver is actually affordable here look at my GitHub filled with R data science

The 'R' stands for "race to regression" which is what every good data scientist should do. Oh, and ggplot everything you possibly can. Chad what-his-name from the Vancouver Sun, the 'data journalist' whose formal education in the field consists of nothing, would be so proud. Measures of central tendency for the win, amirite?

Edit: In before 'the value is in the land'. Yeah, no speculation happening here!

Dinosaurtrain
Mar 7, 2018

by R. Guyovich
In particular gently caress Jens von bergman

Majuju
Dec 30, 2006

I had a beer with Stephen Miller once and now I like him.

Dinosaurtrain posted:

In particular gently caress Jens von bergman

the eric grenier of #vanre

Dinosaurtrain
Mar 7, 2018

by R. Guyovich

Majuju posted:

the eric grenier of #vanre

No that's definitely Chad "um excuse me a non zeroed y axis is wrong" Skelton

Bergman is the guy with autism who won't shut the gently caress up about 0.999999999 = 1 in a French literature class

Snuffman
May 21, 2004

Dinosaurtrain posted:

https://twitter.com/rohanarezel/status/1030979119800967168?s=21

But housing in Vancouver is actually affordable here look at my GitHub filled with R data science

I don't even get what happened here...

Someone bought the house, knocked it down with the intent of building something bigger and flipping but the market downturned midway through demolition so its TIME TO SELL?

That's bonkers.

cowofwar
Jul 30, 2002

by Athanatos

Snuffman posted:

I don't even get what happened here...

Someone bought the house, knocked it down with the intent of building something bigger and flipping but the market downturned midway through demolition so its TIME TO SELL?

That's bonkers.
Probably another case of a genius knocking down a house when the mortgage is secured against it.

Lead out in cuffs
Sep 18, 2012

"That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."




To be fair the house itself was probably only assessed at like $50K value. It looks very Vancouver special-y.

James Baud
May 24, 2015

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Snuffman posted:

I don't even get what happened here...

Someone bought the house, knocked it down with the intent of building something bigger and flipping but the market downturned midway through demolition so its TIME TO SELL?

That's bonkers.

Landlord-tenant eviction dispute?

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


Literally had to check to make sure that wasn't my father in law's place lmao

RBC
Nov 23, 2007

IM STILL SPENDING MONEY FROM 1888

James Baud posted:

Lol at the low mortgage:


Edit: Source / Detail

stopped reading at "We know that a $300,000/year household income is pretty middle class"

Lobok
Jul 13, 2006

Say Watt?

Mandibular Fiasco posted:

Ha, I tossed some fun money into a diversified weed fund last week. Should be entertaining.

Diversified how? Geographically?

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

Lobok posted:

Diversified how? Geographically?

No, mixed with real companies that sell things that aren't weed. Proctor and Gamble, Abbott Labs, J&J, Jamieson, and others, along with a bunch of companies in the cannabis business (CannTrust, Canopy, MedReLeaf, a few others). It's still high risk, but it's not a lot of money and diversified enough that I don't expect to lose anything. I have reasonable performance targets for my investments, and so I don't need to double my money in two months (though I wouldn't complain if it did!)

Fuzzy Mammal
Aug 15, 2001

Lipstick Apathy
I'm attending a wedding in the bridle path neighbourhood. It's a $3k a night Airbnb and as I went out to offer beers to the valets there was a local in a 911 Carrera bitching them out about the drat Asians renting their place out every god-damned weekend and it was very CI.

etalian
Mar 20, 2006

RBC posted:

stopped reading at "We know that a $300,000/year household income is pretty middle class"

lol

quote:

This post will give you a taste of what it’s like to make $1 million a year. You’ll also get to decide whether making a top 0.1% income is truly worth the price.

James Baud
May 24, 2015

by LITERALLY AN ADMIN
Holy crap, Reddit has just brought it to my attention that millennials (and fellow momentum speculators) are even bigger idiots than I realized.

I sort of knew this in the abstract because of hearing stories from other people about asking price for new townhomes in the suburbs being well over a million a while back, but how the christ did every single 1br condo built in the last fifteen years go above 600k ask? Zero appreciation for just how much money that is because of the "prices don't go down" conviction that they'll never have to pay it back anyway.

https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/98p1n5/am_i_crazy_for_thinking_of_buying_in_vancouver/ posted:

Am I crazy for thinking of buying in Vancouver? 78k salary +160k savings

- 26 y/o in a 78k + benefits job.
- I inherited $160k about a year ago, which has been sitting in a maxed-out TFSA and personal account with Wealthsimple
- 10 k sitting in my savings account for emergencies
- One bedroom condos in Vancouver run about $400-450k, with about $250-450 in monthly condo fees
[... snipped a bunch of boring background ...]

Replies:

> One bedroom condos in Vancouver run about $350-400k minimum, with about $200-450 in monthly condo fees
This sounds optimistic? Are you sure these are realistic? I'm not super familiar with Vancouver but this would be cheap for Toronto and I know Vancouver is worse.


Uhh... are you drunk? Most condos in Vancouver in desirable areas are easily over 600k at bare minimum.


Where in Vancouver can you find a one bed for $400-450K?
->The Surrey part...
->->So not Vancouver
->I just did a quick search and found a few very small apartments in older buildings listed in that price range.

Yeah, you hate living in a basement suite, go commit financial suicide instead of just moving to another rental.

(I guess she already waited for the will)

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

James Baud posted:

Holy crap, Reddit has just brought it to my attention that millennials (and fellow momentum speculators) are even bigger idiots than I realized.

I sort of knew this in the abstract because of hearing stories from other people about asking price for new townhomes in the suburbs being well over a million a while back, but how the christ did every single 1br condo built in the last fifteen years go above 600k ask? Zero appreciation for just how much money that is because of the "prices don't go down" conviction that they'll never have to pay it back anyway.


Yeah, you hate living in a basement suite, go commit financial suicide instead of just moving to another rental.

(I guess she already waited for the will)

What I really want to know is what people are going to talk about when the market has crashed and there is no more windfall to be made flipping houses or condos, and people have to actually do real work to earn money?

The absence of mathematical literacy never ceases to amaze me.

Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

We keep talking about a hypothetical crash but I can’t seem to find any evidence of it.
I’m not trolling but I just don’t see property being affordable for milennials anymore. My more sympathetic boomer colleagues at work tell me how the future likely lies in older people sharing large paid off houses and living together and also younger people living together as multiple families as well.

What I see happening instead is a series of corrections. For instance a lot of properties are selling under asking in 2018 and the market has cooled slightly. But a decade from now I think the prices will still be higher than what they are today.

It’s too late. I think 1999 was the last year you could find reasonably affordable property near a major city or a 3000 square foot detached house in a suburb. From now on I can’t see prices ever going down to that level of affordability again. They’ll drop and gently caress over investors. But anyone looking to be an owner-occupier is poo poo out of luck.

UnfortunateSexFart
May 18, 2008

𒃻 𒌓ð’‰𒋫 𒆷ð’€𒅅𒆷
𒆠𒂖 𒌉 𒌫 ð’®𒈠𒈾𒅗 𒂉 𒉡𒌒𒂉𒊑


Vancouver real estate and Canadian real estate are two different beasts. I don't see Vancouver real estate being higher in a decade. China somehow stopped the outflow of dirty money and that's a bigger deal than anything the NDP is doing.

Postess with the Mostest
Apr 4, 2007

Arabian nights
'neath Arabian moons
A fool off his guard
could fall and fall hard
out there on the dunes

Kraftwerk posted:

We keep talking about a hypothetical crash but I can’t seem to find any evidence of it.
I’m not trolling but I just don’t see property being affordable for milennials anymore. My more sympathetic boomer colleagues at work tell me how the future likely lies in older people sharing large paid off houses and living together and also younger people living together as multiple families as well.

What I see happening instead is a series of corrections. For instance a lot of properties are selling under asking in 2018 and the market has cooled slightly. But a decade from now I think the prices will still be higher than what they are today.

It’s too late. I think 1999 was the last year you could find reasonably affordable property near a major city or a 3000 square foot detached house in a suburb. From now on I can’t see prices ever going down to that level of affordability again. They’ll drop and gently caress over investors. But anyone looking to be an owner-occupier is poo poo out of luck.

The phrase you're looking for is "soft landing".

Dukemont
Aug 17, 2005
chocolate microscopes

Postess with the Mostest posted:

The phrase you're looking for is "soft landing".

:golfclap:

Mandibular Fiasco
Oct 14, 2012

Postess with the Mostest posted:

The phrase you're looking for is "soft landing".

Also, "it's different this time".

Kommienzuspadt
Apr 28, 2004

U like it

Kraftwerk posted:

We keep talking about a hypothetical crash but I can’t seem to find any evidence of it.
I’m not trolling but I just don’t see property being affordable for milennials anymore. My more sympathetic boomer colleagues at work tell me how the future likely lies in older people sharing large paid off houses and living together and also younger people living together as multiple families as well.

What I see happening instead is a series of corrections. For instance a lot of properties are selling under asking in 2018 and the market has cooled slightly. But a decade from now I think the prices will still be higher than what they are today.

It’s too late. I think 1999 was the last year you could find reasonably affordable property near a major city or a 3000 square foot detached house in a suburb. From now on I can’t see prices ever going down to that level of affordability again. They’ll drop and gently caress over investors. But anyone looking to be an owner-occupier is poo poo out of luck.

Real estate is definitely not affordable for me. I'm in a prestigious medical training program and our leadership has historically always encouraged us to buy because we are guaranteed to be in the metro area for ~8yrs and we have pretty much bulletproof job security from now until infinity and the promise of high future incomes. I think ~4/9 of us ended up buying. I wasn't one of them. The ones that did, of course, typically had hella help from their parents, but it still didn't always end up making financial sense. One of my classmates bought a condo in a "revitalized" neighborhood for ~650k. His mortgage is almost $3k/month alone because he (more accurately his dad) put down like 10%.

In related US real estate news ...

https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/foreclosures/july-2018-u-s-foreclosure-market-report/

quote:

IRVINE, Calif. – Aug. 21, 2018 — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier property database, today released its July 2018 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report, which shows that foreclosure starts increased from a year ago in 96 of the 219 metropolitan statistical areas (44 percent) analyzed in the report.

A total of 30,187 U.S. properties started the foreclosure process for the first time in July, up 1 percent from the previous month and up less than 1 percent from a year ago — the first year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts nationwide following 36 consecutive months of year-over-year decreases.

Twenty-one states posted a year-over-year increase in foreclosure starts in July, including Florida (up 35 percent); California (up 3 percent); Texas (up 7 percent); Illinois (up 7 percent); and Ohio (up 2 percent).

Metro areas posting year-over-year increases in foreclosure starts in July included Los Angeles, California (up 20 percent); Houston, Texas (up 76 percent); Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (up 10 percent); Miami, Florida (up 29 percent); and San Francisco, California (up 10 percent).

“The increase in foreclosure starts is not just a one-month anomaly in many local markets given that July represented the third consecutive month with a year-over-year increase in 33 metro areas, including Los Angeles, Miami, Houston, Detroit, San Diego and Austin,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president with ATTOM Data Solutions. “Gradually loosening lending standards over the past few years have introduced a modicum of risk back into the housing market, and that additional risk is resulting in rising foreclosure starts in a diverse set of markets across the country. Most susceptible to rising foreclosure starts are affordability-challenged markets where homebuyers are more financially stretched and markets with some type of trigger event such as a natural disaster or large-scale layoffs.”

[continues]

Kommienzuspadt fucked around with this message at 16:33 on Aug 21, 2018

Kommienzuspadt
Apr 28, 2004

U like it
Also, holy poo poo:

https://www.nationalmortgagenews.co...fe-feafb2c90000

(archive.is link for full text : http://archive.is/COk3m )

Race to the bottom? Nonbanks ease standards to compete for 'super' jumbos

quote:

An uptick in private investor liquidity is bringing more nonbank lenders into the market for super jumbo mortgages, often with weaker credit standards than the banks that traditionally dominate this niche.

Super jumbo mortgages, loosely defined as loans with an original balance of more than $1 million, are often offered by banks to build tight-knit relationships with high-net-worth customers in their private banking and wealth management divisions.

But nonbanks, which in recent years have seen their influence and market share grow considerably, are now starting to gain traction with super jumbos.

The total number of super jumbo originators — nonbanks, as well as banks and credit unions — grew 15% in June 2018 over the previous year, according to estimates by Optimal Blue, a provider of loan product and secondary market data and technology.

Nonbank super jumbo originators, which Optimal Blue estimates number in the "few hundred," grew 10% year over year and now outnumber depositories by a 2-to-1 margin.

Banks that offer super jumbos tend to hold the loans in portfolio. But the rise in nonbank activity is being driven by private-label secondary market investors that are willing to buy super jumbos for both whole loan and securitized investments. The number of nonbank investors and aggregators that offer super jumbos was 60% higher in June than it was a year ago, Optimal Blue said.

Recent loan performance has been strong for mortgages originated at $2 million to $3 million, said Vince Furey, senior vice president, lending solutions at OpenClose, an origination software company. That's emboldened the secondary market appetite for even higher balance loans.

"The market to securitize those high loan balances is there now, where it really wasn't before. Liquidity drives everything," Furey said.

The investor universe is still small; Optimal Blue estimates less than 50 investors and aggregators are actively purchasing super jumbos. Banks make up the vast majority of investors, but their market share of loan purchases by dollar volume slipped to 80% in June, from 85% a year ago. Nonbanks' market share grew to 17%, from 12%, while credit unions held roughly 3% of the market, Optimal Blue said.

Nonconforming mortgages accounted for about 11% of loans originated using Optimal Blue's product and pricing engine in June, unchanged from a year ago. However, super jumbos accounted for 13% of all nonconforming lending, down from 17% a year ago.

Nonbanks originate 55% of the dollar volume of super jumbo mortgages. Despite the much lower number of originators, banks and credit unions account for 45% of super jumbo lending by dollar volume because their average loan size tends to be higher than nonbanks, according to Optimal Blue.

The number of nonbank super jumbo lenders is in the low hundreds, Optimal Blue estimates. Among them is the Denver-based direct lender Eave, which offers mortgages with a $20 million loan limit and LoanStream Mortgage, which offers products with loan amounts up to $10 million.

Caliber Home Loans rolled out Elite Access, with a $3 million limit that allows for a 95% LTV with no mortgage insurance and 700 credit score. The Dallas-based lender cited rising home values as one reason for creating the product.

Other niche products, including home equity lines of credit up to $3 million, are also hitting the market.

"But home values don't mean anything if there's no marketable liquidity for the product. The marketable liquidity is being driven by confidence in the values," Furey said.

In addition to raising maximum loan balances, lenders are easing other terms as well, including going up to 95% loan-to-value ratios. If a borrower has a large enough nest egg of liquid assets, some lenders are also willing to forego traditional employment and income verifications.

"Overall, these specialized products that didn't exist three years ago have expanded dramatically, as rates rise and refinance volume shrinks," Furey said. "These unique niche products are picking up a segment of purchasers that may have been locked out of the market."

Some lenders are mitigating risk through cross-collateralization of the borrower's properties, Furey said. For example, a borrower can use their equity in other properties or assets as collateral for the new super jumbo loan.

Despite the looser underwriting and large loan balances, lenders and investors don't appear to be particularly concerned about taking on the additional risk. Rather, they view the product as a strategy opportunity to reach a borrower segment unserved by banks.

Verus Mortgage Capital, a correspondent aggregator headquartered in Washington, D.C., is offering loans $5 million for borrowers previously locked out of jumbo financing. "Their alternatives are cash or private money loans," said its president, Dane Smith. "We've seen the borrower demand. They're great loans, great borrowers, they have really attractive credit risk profiles."

The higher loan amounts even apply to credit-impaired borrowers, where the previous limit was $2 million. Verus purchased a few of these loans on a test basis, liked the borrower profile of the applicants and decided to offer the program on a broader basis, said Smith.

There are a number of factors for the recent popularity of these loans, he said. "People that are doing well, the economy's doing well, they're looking to buy a house and but they recognize or are surprised when they don't fit into a traditional box. They may not have assets to qualify for super jumbo bank financing."
As a result, money-center banks are not Verus' competition for these loans.

The growth has been all along the credit spectrum. "There are a lot of common-sense loans out there, and if we can find a common-sense loan to buy in the super jumbo space, we will do that," Smith said.

Luxury Mortgage, a Stamford, Conn.-based subsidiary of Tiptree Financial, just expanded its guidelines for the nonqualified mortgage jumbo offerings, moving to a $4 million loan limit from a $3 million limit established when the program was rolled out in January.

On the prime jumbo side, it will do up to $5 million, but it will go above those amounts in both programs on an exception basis, said CEO David Adamo.

"There's been a proliferation of expanding guidelines to accommodate these larger loan balances, particularly the ones that fall outside of traditional prime jumbo credit guidelines in the non-QM product categories," Adamo said. "There are just things you can do in a non-QM product to make the mortgage process more convenient and less cumbersome for the borrower than if they were to through the traditional route of a typical prime credit jumbo product."

These loans are being bundled in securitizations with those under $1 million, he said. But with each deal there are more and more super jumbo loans included and as a result of the successful execution the origination community has gotten comfortable with increasing the loan amounts.

$3M home with 95% LTV and a FICO <700?? Are they high?

Kommienzuspadt fucked around with this message at 17:03 on Aug 21, 2018

blah_blah
Apr 15, 2006

Kommienzuspadt posted:

$3M home with 95% LTV and a FICO <700?? Are they high?

You also probably need to make ~1M a year to get the full 3M, based on my recent experiences with 'super jumbo' loans. If anything I was surprised at how little people were willing to loan me.

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Kommienzuspadt
Apr 28, 2004

U like it

blah_blah posted:

You also probably need to make ~1M a year to get the full 3M, based on my recent experiences with 'super jumbo' loans. If anything I was surprised at how little people were willing to loan me.

Same article :

quote:

In addition to raising maximum loan balances, lenders are easing other terms as well, including going up to 95% loan-to-value ratios. If a borrower has a large enough nest egg of liquid assets, some lenders are also willing to forego traditional employment and income verifications.

"Overall, these specialized products that didn't exist three years ago have expanded dramatically, as rates rise and refinance volume shrinks," Furey said. "These unique niche products are picking up a segment of purchasers that may have been locked out of the market."

Obviously this doesn't necessarily apply to the Caliber "Elite Access" package, so take that for what it's worth.

Even at $1M, 95% LTV is a $50k deposit on a $1M home...

Can I ask where you were looking to buy/what lenders you shopped around at?

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