Auspol August: Prime Minister Sharks

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Who should be the Mod? This poll is closed.
Anidav	14	0.14%
Dr Spaceman	2	0.02%
JBP	12	0.12%
bell jar	1	0.01%
GoldStandardConure	7	0.07%
Joseph Stalin	10016	99.64%
Total:	10052 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

birdstrike: Oct 30, 2008; i;m gay

kirbysuperstar posted:

[in a fat bloke voice] gamble responsibly

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:09

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 10:59

birdstrike: Oct 30, 2008; i;m gay

Anidav posted:

Interesting how such leaks go to 9 News and not Fairfax?

Honk honk.

Also:

What.

rwnjs don�t read Fairfax and they know their followers don�t, makes sense

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:10

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

lol what a bitch

https://twitter.com/TonyAbbottMHR/status/1031018339856830466

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:10

drunkill: Sep 25, 2007; me @ ur posting; Fallen Rib

Dutton didn't show up tonight?

https://twitter.com/couriermail/status/1031141810800918528

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:15

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

quote:

Fairfax-Ipsos poll: Voter support collapses as Peter Dutton leans towards challenging Malcolm Turnbull

Supporters of Peter Dutton say the Home Affairs Minister is leaning towards challenging Malcolm Turnbull for the prime ministership and has the numbers to win, amid a crisis over energy policy and a horror new poll showing support for the Coalition has slumped.

Mr Dutton has spent the weekend taking soundings among Liberal MPs, leaving close colleagues with the clear view that he believes the government is now in an unwinnable position.

All indications were that Mr Dutton was ready to run for the leadership, they said, in another sign of a Coalition meltdown with conflicting claims over support for rival camps ahead of a policy showdown in the Coalition party room on Tuesday.

An exclusive Fairfax-Ipsos poll shows the Coalition has suffered a horror slump in its primary vote from 39 to 33 per cent over the past month amid open disputes on energy and speculation over the leadership.

In its worst result since early last year, the Coalition now trails Labor by 45 to 55 per cent in two-party terms in a result that would cost the government more than 20 seats at a general election.

The moves come as Mr Turnbull�s supporters rally behind the Prime Minister to back his energy policy and his leadership, insisting he has majority support despite open conflict with his predecessor, Tony Abbott.

One cabinet minister said MPs were increasing their support for Mr Turnbull due to concerns the elevation of Mr Dutton to the leadership would be followed by the restoration of Mr Abbott to the cabinet, either in the defence or home affairs portfolio.

Another cabinet minister was scathing about the jostling for a spill at the expense of government unity, while a third said there was no majority support to force a change.

One Liberal estimated the chances of a spill at 50:50 but said �the odds are increasing� not only because of the dispute over the National Energy Guarantee but the wider argument over the government�s direction.

No formal headcount has been conducted and supporters of the Prime Minister say that he still enjoys the support of the party room, but several days of frenetic phone calls among MPs has agitated the party and destabilised the government.

The fact that Mr Dutton took 24 hours on Friday and Saturday to respond to leadership speculation led MPs to predict he would move at some point if Mr Turnbull could not manage the discontent in the party room.

Mr Turnbull brought cabinet ministers to Parliament House on Sunday night to discuss policy over dinner, ahead of a formal meeting on Monday night to finalise a package to go to the party room on Tuesday.

One supporter of Mr Dutton noted the minister�s tweet of support for Mr Turnbull on Saturday morning had avoided any pledge not to challenge the leader.

�He supports the Prime Minister 'till the moment he�s challenging him,� the MP said.

With the situation fluid on Sunday night, some Liberals said a leadership change was increasingly likely while others flatly said they had �no interest� in a spill.

One Liberal disputed claims that marginal seat MPs were in favour of a shift to Mr Dutton, pointing to several in NSW and Victoria who would fare better at the federal election with Mr Turnbull as leader.

In a federal Liberal party room of 85, those supporting Mr Dutton estimate he has a majority comfortably above the 43 votes required to win. While he is the candidate of the party�s conservative wing, he has also won over some moderates who are despairing at Mr Turnbull�s leadership.

Some of the conservative members of the Coalition backbench already were campaigning against the National Energy Guarantee, but Mr Turnbull�s sudden change to the policy on Friday alienated more of his colleagues.

�Malcolm likes to talk about how he runs good cabinet processes, but that was a captain's call and it was desperate,� said one of his cabinet ministers.

�Rather than fix the problem of the NEG he has exacerbated it. The NEG is now dead.�

The Prime Minister is expected to take the revised NEG to the Coalition party room for approval on Tuesday.

�It doesn�t matter what the NEG turns out to be now,� said a conservative Liberal.

�It�s broader than that � it�s now about our direction, our base, and our personnel.�

Mr Turnbull has lost ground to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten on key measures of voter satisfaction, narrowing the gap between the two men when Australians are asked who they prefer as prime minister.

The fall in support for the Coalition was matched by a boost for minor parties including Pauline Hanson�s One Nation rather than a gain for Labor, which saw its primary vote increase marginally from 34 to 35 per cent.

Support for the minor parties rose from 15 to 19 per cent while the Greens saw an increase in their primary vote from 12 to 13 per cent.

A narrow majority of voters back the NEG, with 54 per cent in favour while 22 per cent are against it and 24 per cent are unsure.

Support for the flagship energy policy is strongest among Coalition voters, at 64 per cent, but the scheme is also backed by 59 per cent of Labor voters and 44 per cent of Greens voters.

Even so, 56 per cent of all voters believe the government is doing too little to address climate change amid the argument over the scale of the cuts to greenhouse gas emissions in the new scheme.

In a sign of discontent among conservative voters, the number who believe the government is doing too much on climate change has jumped from 7 to 13 per cent of all respondents since Fairfax-Ipsos asked the same question three years ago.

The slump in the Coalition�s primary vote is expected to trigger a storm over the findings, as Mr Turnbull and his allies warn against placing too much faith in the polls.

�The poll is robust and reliable, conducted to the same methodology as used for the Fairfax-Ipsos polls since 2014,� said Ipsos public affairs director Jess Elgood.

�As with our previous polls in 2018, our sample of 1,200 means that the aggregate findings are statistically reliable to plus or minus 2.9 per cent, at the 95 per cent confidence level.�

The result in two-party terms, with the government lagging Labor by 45 to 55 per cent, is based on preference flows at the last election.

The result was the same when respondents were asked how they would allocate their preferences, a dramatic gain for Labor compared to the dead heat for the two major parties on this measure in the last Fairfax-Ipsos survey.

In a personal blow to Mr Turnbull that matches the shift against his government, his support as preferred prime minister has fallen from 57 to 48 per cent over the last month, while Mr Shorten has improved his standing from 30 to 36 per cent.

The gap between the two leaders as preferred prime minister has shrunk to 12 percentage points, the closest it has been since May last year.

The proportion of voters who approved of Mr Turnbull�s performance fell from 55 to 46 per cent over the last month while those who disapproved rose from 38 to 48 per cent.

Mr Turnbull�s net approval rating � the difference between those who approve and disapprove of his performance � plunged from 17 percentage points last month to minus 2 points in this poll, his first negative result since last November.

At 33 per cent, the Coalition�s primary vote is six percentage points below its result in the last Fairfax-Ipsos survey and nine percentage points below its result at the last election.

Labor�s primary vote of 35 per cent is up slightly from the 34 per cent result in the last poll and is the same as its result at the last election.

Voters increased their support for the Greens from 12 to 13 per cent but the strongest gains were among other political parties, a group that includes Pauline Hanson�s One Nation.

The latest survey finds 19 per cent of voters give their first preference votes to other parties, up from 15 per cent in the last survey.

The Fairfax-Ipsos survey of 1200 respondents was conducted from August 15 to 18 and has a margin of error of 2.9 per cent.

https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/po...819-p4zye9.html

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:18

BBJoey: Oct 31, 2012

When the gently caress was the Ipsos poll conducted, and what's the margin of error? That's an absurd movement between two polls.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:19

The Peccadillo: Mar 4, 2013; We Have Important Work To Do

BBJoey posted:

When the gently caress was the Ipsos poll conducted, and what's the margin of error? That's an absurd movement between two polls.

It doesn't matter

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:21

Tokamak: Dec 22, 2004

ipsos, more like ipos

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:22

BBJoey: Oct 31, 2012

Australia is never, ever going to have an energy policy, is it

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:25

Reclines Obesily: Jul 24, 2000; Hey Moona!; Slippery Tilde

Their last poll was before the by elections when that albo nonsense was being spread around, this current one is from the past 4 days

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:25

drunkill: Sep 25, 2007; me @ ur posting; Fallen Rib

Their last poll was pre-bye election weekend, which would explain the swing. But yeah those numbers are big, when is the next newspoll or galaxy? Wait for one of those to also swing and then we get a spill.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:27

Dude McAwesome: Sep 30, 2004; Still better than a Ponytar

BBJoey posted:

Australia is never, ever going to have an energy policy, is it

Sure we will: all coal, all the time.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:30

drunkill: Sep 25, 2007; me @ ur posting; Fallen Rib

Actually our energy policy to to shovel money into furnaces. Been going well recently, they've even bought snow shovels which can hold more.

Well, I say bought but they stole them from a ski lodge on Mt. Buller.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:42

Doctor Spaceman: Jul 6, 2010; "Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

BBJoey posted:

Australia is never, ever going to have an energy policy, is it

The next energy policy is to burn all of the previous ones.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:48

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN: Jun 26, 2009

Ora Tzo posted:

https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1031135653759602688

I'm dead and now the ghost who posts

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:48

Brown Paper Bag: Nov 3, 2012

https://twitter.com/patskarvelas/status/1031159954042810369?s=21

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:54

Dude McAwesome: Sep 30, 2004; Still better than a Ponytar

Brown Paper Bag posted:

https://twitter.com/patskarvelas/status/1031159954042810369?s=21

Toned Abs, the ultimate loyal backbencher. Zero sniping or undermining.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 13:57

BBJoey: Oct 31, 2012

Does anyone honestly believe that Abbott would settle for a ministry in a Dutton government

Even Dutton himself can�t be that thick

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:00

The Peccadillo: Mar 4, 2013; We Have Important Work To Do

BBJoey posted:

Does anyone honestly believe that Abbott would settle for a ministry in a Dutton government

Even Dutton himself can’t be that thick

They don't care what he'd be "happy" with, he'll get what he's given and try to drag himself up to knife Potato Nazi in his own time

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:13

Les Affaires: Nov 15, 2004

i�m pretty sure tony would be happy just to see malcolm lose his prime ministership regardless of whether he gets a ministry. I reckon a fair few members of cabinet also remember how terrible abbott was at running a ministry so there is only a slim chance he will get one.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:17

Pile Of Garbage: May 28, 2007

GIVE ME SPILL OR GIVE ME DEATH! :toxx:

I presume our new lord and saviour can make it so, terms will be spill by end of the coming week. Yes I'm bored and drunk so what.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:21

The Peccadillo: Mar 4, 2013; We Have Important Work To Do

The Peccadillo posted:

They don't care what he'd be "happy" with, he'll get what he's given and try to drag himself up to knife Potato Nazi in his own time

Although if there's one thing we know about Dutton it's a hosed passion for power consolidation

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:33

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

quote:

DUTTON TELLS TURNBULL �I DON�T WANT TO CHALLENGE� � BUT
EXCLUSIVE MALCOLM Turnbull�s key backers spent the weekend urging Liberals not to turn on him as The Daily Telegraph can reveal top contender Peter Dutton assured the PM in a private call he didn�t want to challenge � but also didn�t rule it out.

this is from the front page of the daily telegraph Anidav can you post it?

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:38

GoldStandardConure: Jun 11, 2010; I have to kill fast
and mayflies too slow; Pillbug

told you this would happen!

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:39

bandaid.friend: Apr 25, 2017; My first car was a stick

Birdstrike posted:

oh wow I wonder why that was

Ah I'm sorry for being slow but the image didn't mention Husar and I didn't know people were being weird so the question's been nagging at me

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:40

I would blow Dane Cook: Dec 26, 2008

Everyone's favourite political commentator is here to give her opinion on the current situation and OH GOD WHAT IS THAT HAIR DID A POSSUM DIE ON HER HEAD?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1031176400869289984

# ? Aug 19, 2018 14:58

Tokamak: Dec 22, 2004

Dutton isn't the golden candidate, but could he be a yukon gold?

# ? Aug 19, 2018 15:03

Dude McAwesome: Sep 30, 2004; Still better than a Ponytar

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

Everyone's favourite political commentator is here to give her opinion on the current situation and OH GOD WHAT IS THAT HAIR DID A POSSUM DIE ON HER HEAD?

I�m gonna take the high road here and not make fun of her appearance.

Instead I�m going to ask what the gently caress is up with her weird accent/affect that she puts on with her voice. Is it an attempt at nobility or something?

# ? Aug 19, 2018 15:03

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

Dude McAwesome posted:

I�m gonna take the high road here and not make fun of her appearance.

Instead I�m going to ask what the gently caress is up with her weird accent/affect that she puts on with her voice. Is it an attempt at nobility or something?

I'm pretty sure the liberal party is 100% bunyip aristocracy at this point.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 15:06

bandaid.friend: Apr 25, 2017; My first car was a stick

She's bleaching her hair to look greying, too, cripes. Bet her scent is made from dead skin taken from a nursing home's vacuum cleaner bag

# ? Aug 19, 2018 15:12

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN: Jun 26, 2009

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

Everyone's favourite political commentator is here to give her opinion on the current situation and OH GOD WHAT IS THAT HAIR DID A POSSUM DIE ON HER HEAD?

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1031176400869289984

who is the small bouncy man ?

# ? Aug 19, 2018 15:40

The Peccadillo: Mar 4, 2013; We Have Important Work To Do

Daisy is Milo's somehow even more awkwardly styled little sister

# ? Aug 19, 2018 15:47

drunkill: Sep 25, 2007; me @ ur posting; Fallen Rib

A reminder from last year... I wonder if he has changed his mind.

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...MP=share_btn_tw

quote:

Malcolm Turnbull says he would quit parliament if no longer prime minister

Malcolm Turnbull says he would leave parliament if he lost the prime ministership and has pointed to the former New Zealand prime minister John Key as an example of a modern leader who left politics with dignity.

He said he understood why Tony Abbott had found it so difficult adjusting to life as a backbencher, because he went through a bleak period himself when he lost the Liberal party leadership to Abbott in 2009, but he eventually put his head down and �got on with it�.

He made the comments in an interview with the Sunday Telegraph to mark a year since his narrow election victory, and after a brutal week of infighting in the Coalition.

drunkill fucked around with this message at 16:41 on Aug 19, 2018

# ? Aug 19, 2018 16:28

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

I would blow Dane Cook posted:

this is from the front page of the daily telegraph Anidav can you post it?

MALCOLM Turnbull’s key backers spent the weekend urging Liberals not to turn on the Prime Minister.

The rearguard action comes as The Daily Telegraph can reveal top contender, Peter Dutton, assured Mr Turnbull in a private call he did not want to challenge — but wouldn’t rule it out.

As Cabinet met the PM in a policy crisis meeting last night as part of a bid to stave off a conservative rebellion, Mr Dutton is being pressured by marginal seat MPs to challenge for the leadership.

The Daily Telegraph has learned that in a private phone conversation after news exploded that he was considering a leadership tilt, Mr Dutton told Mr Turnbull he did not want to run against him — but he did not categorically rule it out.

During the phone call, it is understood the men also spoke about the reasons for the level of anger from the Liberal conservative base.

Mr Turnbull’s backers spent the weekend shoring up numbers for his leadership, with moderate leader Christopher Pyne and government whip Rowan Ramsey arguing there should be no change of prime minister, on the basis of “stability”.

Mr Pyne is understood to have told the MPs that Mr Turnbull is popular with the public and has a good story to tell about a growing economy.

Some MPs, however, were less than impressed with his criticism of Mr Dutton during the calls and messages.

“The Prime Minister has had Pyne out trying to bag Dutton to colleagues. He was sent out to gauge the temperature, check Malcolm’s support and make the case for no change,” one MP said.

As Cabinet met for a crisis meeting on energy policy last night, Mr Dutton was still seriously considering a challenge with a growing number of marginal seat MPs urging him to take action.

They claim the election is unwinnable and lament that the Turnbull government’s problems are broader than the NEG.

Mr Dutton has told those colleagues he has not made a decision and will wait to see the reaction to Mr Turnbull’s NEG reset.

Senior conservative Mathias Cormann is understood to have been instrumental in negotiating for Mr Dutton to send a tweet on Saturday morning that stated he still supported Mr Turnbull as PM.

Last night, Mr Turnbull called his Cabinet to dinner at a private dining room at Parliament House, where he presented a “peace plan” or reset on the National Energy Guarantee, which involved setting new, severe penalties for energy companies that refused to lower power bills. “He’s trying to offer this peace plan up and hope it settles down,” a senior Liberal said.

The crisis dinner kicked off a week in Parliament that has the potential to be highly volatile, with company tax cuts legislation being debated today and the Coalition party room discussing the National Energy Guarantee tomorrow.

Mr Turnbull’s supporters are worried a backbencher like Kevin Andrews could move a motion for a leadership spill to blow open the leadership issue.

While Mr Turnbull’s backers say they are confident he has the support of the overwhelming majority of MPs, they fear if Mr Dutton stood as a candidate, he may garner sufficient numbers to mortally wound the PM.

“There is a disconnect between Cabinet and the backbench,” a senior Liberal conservative said.

“There are a number on the backbench that argue this (NEG reset) is too little, too late and it’s as much about Malcolm’s obsession with climate change and his inability to have the discipline to keep a message for any longer than 12 hours.”

A senior Liberal source told The Daily Telegraph any change to Mr Dutton would not be in the best interest of the government.

“He’s a conservative Queensland policeman who will not resonate anywhere else in Australia and who has no experience to do what’s required to be the PM,” the source said.

Former prime minister Tony Abbott said the NEG reset showed Mr Turnbull was not running the government with proper process.

“This is no way to run a government and the Prime Minister’s problem now, as in 2009, is that he wants to form a unity ticket with the Labor Party on climate policy and that’s completely unacceptable,” he said.

Tony Abbott made reference to “merchant banker gobbledegook” according to a source. Not holding back in there. #auspol

— PatriciaKarvelas (@PatsKarvelas) August 14, 2018

Mr Abbott said Mr Turnbull’s first problem was to misrepresent the party room’s position for the NEG as one of overwhelming support.

“Second, he gives the legislation to the Labor Party but not to the Coalition backbench.

“Third, having said on Tuesday that the targets must be entrenched in legislation, he up-ends this on Friday and says they can only be in regulation to appease Victoria and get Labor onside.”

# ? Aug 19, 2018 21:53

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

cheese-cube posted:

GIVE ME SPILL OR GIVE ME DEATH!

I presume our new lord and saviour can make it so, terms will be spill by end of the coming week. Yes I'm bored and drunk so what.

Very well

# ? Aug 19, 2018 21:56

Senor Tron: May 26, 2006

quote:

The rearguard action comes as The Daily Telegraph can reveal top contender, Peter Dutton, assured Mr Turnbull in a private call he did not want to challenge � but wouldn�t rule it out.

A challenger leaking something like that out is pretty much standard procedure so they can later say "I didn't want to challenge but did it for the good of the country".
Here's hoping for a spill that keeps Turnbull in but with enough Dutton votes that Turnbull is bleeding right up to the election.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 22:51

Anidav: Feb 25, 2010; ahhh fuck its the rats again

Post Bill Shorten's face right now.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 22:53

tithin: Nov 14, 2003; [Grandmaster Tactician]

This is a cursed spill. Whoever wins is hosed at the next election regardless.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 22:57

Blamestorm: Aug 14, 2004; We LOL at death! Watch us LOL. Love the LOL.

For someone like Dutton he might as well challenge, he�s gone otherwise in six or fewer months. The laughable part is that almost nobody believes it will do anything positive, I would imagine it�s more punitive at this point if it happens. But I think like Gillard at the end there will be a sense of throwing poo poo at the wall because action is better than inaction with looming electoral disaster.

# ? Aug 19, 2018 23:00

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 10:59

hambeet: Sep 13, 2002

tithin posted:

This is a cursed spill. Whoever wins is hosed at the next election regardless.

*quietly cheering*

Dut-ton Dut-ton Dut-ton

# ? Aug 19, 2018 23:13

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