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Corsair Pool Boy posted:Oh yeah, she's definitely running in 2020. My biggest concern is some kind of situation where the center rallies around Biden (or something) and the left vote is split between Sanders and Warren. While I have little doubt Sanders would come out ahead of Warren in that equation, I'm not so sure that Sanders - Warren > Biden (or whatever), assuming the latter centrist vote isn't split with anyone else.
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Aug 21, 2018 19:50
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The fact that warren is even willing to discuss this topic is already making me salivate that there may still be hope. If it gets people mobilized we can worry about whether or not it goes far enough once it enacts a foothold in the American political culture. I think you wanna slip these things in without launching a full scale radical campaign from the richest most influential people who will strangle proposals like this in their crib.
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Aug 21, 2018 20:08
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Ytlaya posted:My biggest concern is some kind of situation where the center rallies around Biden (or something) and the left vote is split between Sanders and Warren. While I have little doubt Sanders would come out ahead of Warren in that equation, I'm not so sure that Sanders - Warren > Biden (or whatever), assuming the latter centrist vote isn't split with anyone else. From what we've seen from both parties in the recent past, it doesn't really work like that. The party probably can't get away with throwing it's weight behind one establishment candidate while three or four are running, and the ego required to seriously consider a POTUS run usually precludes candidates from stepping aside to give another support while they think they still have a chance. The way things are now, I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 is a really bloody primary for both parties - someone will run against Trump, and I can see Warren/Harris/Booker/Sanders/Biden/Gillibrand being a slightly less crazy rehash of the last two GOP primaries.
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Aug 21, 2018 20:49
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Warren’s vision is interesting because it’s quite literally the last chance for the current neoliberal capitalist system to save itself. If she can’t get elected*, or get’s elected and can’t pass her agenda the center is dead and we’re headed hard into either full socialism or fascism the next time a recession hits. Gonna be a real interesting decade!  *Yes, this includes loosing the primary to Booker or some other third way mouth breather. No Democrats other than Sanders and Warren have any real credibility as reformers so Harris winning on a platform of tax credits for micro loans (and then not even doing that) won’t actually do much to stop the long term decline of the establishment Democrats.
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Aug 21, 2018 20:59
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Corsair Pool Boy posted:The way things are now, I wouldn't be surprised if 2020 is a really bloody primary for both parties - someone will run against Trump, and I can see Warren/Harris/Booker/Sanders/Biden/Gillibrand being a slightly less crazy rehash of the last two GOP primaries. Bloody for the Democrats, certainly. As of right now, I guarantee you that anyone that tries to primary Trump ends up somewhere between Jeb and Kasich.
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Aug 21, 2018 21:21
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Our Great Historic Socialists, on historic American leftism, by Nathan Robinson.\ Edit: Also, there is a prison strike happening. Seems like a big deal imo. https://twitter.com/jaybeware/status/1031881443222454272 Lightning Knight fucked around with this message at 21:49 on Aug 21, 2018 |
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Aug 21, 2018 21:38
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Nothus posted:Bloody for the Democrats, certainly. As of right now, I guarantee you that anyone that tries to primary Trump ends up somewhere between Jeb and Kasich. Hold that thought. Manafort was just convicted on 8 counts of financial/tax crimes (hung jury on the other 10), and Cohen just gave testimony regarding some campaign finance and other stuff he did for Trump, WHILE PLEADING GUILTY INTO 4-5 years in prison. e: oddly, it sounds like there's no condition requiring him to cooperate with investigators, not sure what that means.
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Aug 21, 2018 22:01
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 "look joe, an illegal immigrant! if we don't catch him he might be able to go home to his family!!"
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Aug 21, 2018 22:02
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I don't see why they're still making Obama fanfiction, they're never going to top White House Down.
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Aug 21, 2018 22:15
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Nothus posted:Bloody for the Democrats, certainly. As of right now, I guarantee you that anyone that tries to primary Trump ends up somewhere between Jeb and Kasich. The only way Trump has a competitive primary is if someone even more populist and nationalist comes around that steals his base, and I don't see that happening (at least in 2020) Everyone else is going to get mercilessly dunked on.
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Aug 21, 2018 22:25
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readingatwork posted:Warren’s vision is interesting because it’s quite literally the last chance for the current neoliberal capitalist system to save itself. If she can’t get elected*, or get’s elected and can’t pass her agenda the center is dead and we’re headed hard into either full socialism or fascism the next time a recession hits. What do you think happens if a big recession hits before 2020?
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Aug 21, 2018 23:27
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Corsair Pool Boy posted:Hold that thought. Yeah, there's a lot that can happen between now and then, so who knows. But if the right wing media sticks with Trump he's basically untouchable in the primaries.
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Aug 21, 2018 23:31
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Ardennes posted:I mean the devil is in the details here. Honestly, the details aren't where these plans usually fall apart - it's the enforcement. Either they have a waiver provision that's used so heavily that the restriction becomes meaningless, or they're just straight-up not enforced at all. Talking about the details is pointless anyway, since there won't be a Dem Senate supermajority anytime soon. The real question is whether the Dems in general could be trusted to actually live up to a policy like this. After all, Obama campaigned on introducing a bunch of anti-corruption policies that were mostly ignored, waivered, or loopholed around in practice.
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Aug 21, 2018 23:46
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Farmer Crack-rear end posted:What do you think happens if a big recession hits before 2020? Bernie will probably have it in the bag at that point. Economic justice is his whole deal and nobody will be in the mood for capitalist incrementalism two months after they lost their job and watched their 401k tank for the second time in their lives.
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Aug 22, 2018 00:00
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Nothus posted:Bloody for the Democrats, certainly. As of right now, I guarantee you that anyone that tries to primary Trump ends up somewhere between Jeb and Kasich. I wouldn’t put it past someone to try to out-trump Trump. In just throwing aside all decorum and being an rear end. Like I really don’t know why nobody has called him “Fat Don” at this point, except that because Democrats are the party of people who clutch pearls about ‘body shaming’. Doing so now that he’s incumbent disposes of the traditional “respect for the office” poo poo that people trot out when they don’t like the President; but the GOP already disposed of respect for anything else. Craptacular! fucked around with this message at 00:12 on Aug 22, 2018 |
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Aug 22, 2018 00:09
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readingatwork posted:Bernie will probably have it in the bag at that point. Economic justice is his whole deal and nobody will be in the mood for capitalist incrementalism two months after they lost their job and watched their 401k tank for the second time in their lives. sanders is old this is not a matter of whether people will vote for someone as old as him - although that will come up, it's an easy ratfuck - but whether he's willing and able to run in 2020 is by no means certain
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Aug 22, 2018 00:22
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Craptacular! posted:I wouldn’t put it past someone to try to out-trump Trump. In just throwing aside all decorum and being an rear end. There's something about Trump's personality that keeps bullshit from sticking to him. Enough of it will stick, but he's good at shrugging it off. It's hard to replicate a cult of personality.
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Aug 22, 2018 00:23
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Nothus posted:Yeah, there's a lot that can happen between now and then, so who knows. But if the right wing media sticks with Trump he's basically untouchable in the primaries. If the right-wing media turns on Trump (in this context, from Fox news rightward to places like Breitbart etc), I think the followers will fall in line. I don't expect this to happen without mass right-wing elected officials turning on him however. Like it can't just be figures like McCain, Flake, Kasich, Romneys -- it has to be a vast amount of elected Rs. And I don't see that happening without popular opinion (amongst the R base), turning on him first. It's a weird Mexican standoff situation where everyone is too cowardly to fire first and thus they are paralyzed. If I was a Republican oligarch power player (one who is actually concerned by this standoff, many of them are probably fine with it), I think the correct move is to goad the media to move first. If they could get their talking points in order amongst Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, Hannity et. al, the base would fall into line and thus the elected politicians could act. Sure there would be marginalized QAnon/Alex Jones conspiracy diehards, but I don't think they are numerous enough to rebel if all of the average grandpas and boomers are convinced through mainstream conservative media. This assumes that Republican oligarch power players actually have the power to sway the right-wing media, and I'm not so sure that they do anymore. The Southern Strategy racist golem they manipulated for votes over the past 50 years has broken it's shackles and realized it's more powerful than its masters.
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Aug 22, 2018 01:00
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Farmer Crack-rear end posted:What do you think happens if a big recession hits before 2020? I don't see why it would be different than Obama, that is, Dems win the presidency in a landslide, do the bare minimum emergency first aid on the economy, back away from M4A/left-wing structural reforms and pass some legislation to resuscitate Obamacare, and then turn their attention to foreign policy and just sort of enjoy the warm glow of self-satisfaction that comes from sitting atop the Liberal International Order. I'll believe they do something different if/when it happens
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Aug 22, 2018 01:32
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Cease to Hope posted:sanders is old Bernie's age is largely irrelevant when there's been an obvious push to build up support for Biden running. No one is actually going to care that would vote for him if he were younger. Also that's what a VP is for anyway.
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Aug 22, 2018 01:33
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icantfindaname posted:I don't see why it would be different than Obama, that is, Dems win the presidency in a landslide, do the bare minimum emergency first aid on the economy, back away from M4A/left-wing structural reforms and pass some legislation to resuscitate Obamacare, and then turn their attention to foreign policy and just sort of enjoy the warm glow of self-satisfaction that comes from sitting atop the Liberal International Order. I'll believe they do something different if/when it happens Yeah, to be honest, even if Sanders wins I don't see the Dems passing something like MfA. But it would at least make the schism even more public than it currently is (Dems would have to be going against their president when they oppose it, and it will be involved even more in public discourse).
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Aug 22, 2018 01:40
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Pakistani Brad Pitt posted:If the right-wing media turns on Trump (in this context, from Fox news rightward to places like Breitbart etc), I think the followers will fall in line. trump could announce tomorrow during his morning dump twitter barrage that he's joined the nation of islam and by lunch time fox news will be running segments on how the democratic party was created in yakub's lab
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Aug 22, 2018 01:46
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Pretty much everyone in the media is trying as hard as they can to gently caress with M4A along with "centrist" Democrats. If the President starts pushing for it, that topic can no longer be ignored and people will start asking why exactly are they paying for expensive insurance or penalized for not having it when there is something that very well could be better. It's an easier topic to ignore when only a few voices are even bringing up the idea but most Americans are becoming unsatisfied with their health care, they just aren't sure on how to express it since the narrative for so long has been "America has the best healthcare in the world, nothing else works" from every angle. If Democrats get back into power and punt on health care or try again with the ACA they are going to be shocked when angry people start showing up at THEIR townhalls to scream why are we dying for your doners' profits?
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Aug 22, 2018 01:46
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Craptacular! posted:I wouldn’t put it past someone to try to out-trump Trump. In just throwing aside all decorum and being an rear end. it doesn't really matter whether anyone calls him a mean name or not, except as a show of defiance I'm loving sick of liberals just calling him a dummy or making fun of his typos without being willing to repudiate GOP policy
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Aug 22, 2018 02:19
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Anyway, I doubt Trump's base is going to abandon him, they have gone with him this far and he is still polling around 42-43%. Moreover, they really don't have anywhere to go unless a more extreme populist somehow makes it out of the woodwork. It isn't like they are going to "see the error of their ways" because of the Russia investigation.
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Aug 22, 2018 02:41
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Craptacular! posted:Like I really don’t know why nobody has called him “Fat Don” at this point Ardennes posted:It isn't like they are going to "see the error of their ways" because of the Russia investigation.
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Aug 22, 2018 03:25
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Rent-A-Cop posted:Especially is all it can come up with is some campaign finance shenanigans. Political campaigns are basically assumed to be corrupt already. Also, impeachment isn't just a risk to Trump, if they can't convict him...it will also certainly vindicate him (and his base probably would still stick around regardless).
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Aug 22, 2018 03:28
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Does make me wonder if a lot of Trump's base would stay home if Trump isn't on the ballot and the Republicans try to push through gutless establishment candidates.
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Aug 22, 2018 04:32
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Radish posted:Pretty much everyone in the media is trying as hard as they can to gently caress with M4A along with "centrist" Democrats. If the President starts pushing for it, that topic can no longer be ignored and people will start asking why exactly are they paying for expensive insurance or penalized for not having it when there is something that very well could be better. It's an easier topic to ignore when only a few voices are even bringing up the idea but most Americans are becoming unsatisfied with their health care, they just aren't sure on how to express it since the narrative for so long has been "America has the best healthcare in the world, nothing else works" from every angle. Lol if you think CNN will react to that differently than denouncing it as a disturbing populist outburst of anger at the legitimate institutions of politics
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Aug 22, 2018 04:45
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Radish posted:Bernie's age is largely irrelevant when there's been an obvious push to build up support for Biden running. No one is actually going to care that would vote for him if he were younger. Also that's what a VP is for anyway. i repeat, this is not a matter of whether people will vote for someone as old as him, but whether he's willing and able to run in 2020 is by no means certain. same goes for biden. old people have this tendency to get sick and/or die
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Aug 22, 2018 06:42
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It's hard to say. Some old people are spry and active right up til they drop dead while others linger forever.
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Aug 22, 2018 07:45
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it's a significant wildcard when talking about all of these septuagenarians
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Aug 22, 2018 07:55
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Cease to Hope posted:i repeat, this is not a matter of whether people will vote for someone as old as him, but whether he's willing and able to run in 2020 is by no means certain. same goes for biden. Hillary literally fainted while campaigning. Let's wait for Bernie to have a similar incident before we freak out about how we can't possibly elect old people.
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Aug 22, 2018 08:04
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You shouldn't elect old people because they're not in touch with the supermajority of the people they represent. In the information age experience can only compensate so far. Bernie doesn't define this notion because he's closer to the general electorate politically than either party wants to admit. He's still older than we should be hoping for.
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Aug 22, 2018 08:08
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RuanGacho posted:He's still older than we should be hoping for. as a wise man once said, you go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want
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Aug 22, 2018 09:21
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WampaLord posted:Hillary literally fainted while campaigning. Let's wait for Bernie to have a similar incident before we freak out about how we can't possibly elect old people. you cannot elect them if they die or retire, that is all i am saying
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Aug 22, 2018 09:45
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WampaLord posted:Hillary literally fainted while campaigning. Let's wait for Bernie to have a similar incident before we freak out about how we can't possibly elect old people. especially when the other side is pushing people like biden
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Aug 22, 2018 09:49
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RuanGacho posted:You shouldn't elect old people because they're not in touch with the supermajority of the people they represent. In the information age experience can only compensate so far. on this note https://twitter.com/shaunking/status/1031572157694992384
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Aug 22, 2018 09:54
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Cease to Hope posted:you cannot elect them if they die or retire, that is all i am saying Yeah, but Warren is not actually a replacement for Sanders, so okay. That said, I am pretty pessimistic about the primary the way it is shaping up. Even if the result isn't Harris, I think the establishment has most of the cards here and really has manipulated the process to give it simply too much of an advantage.
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Aug 22, 2018 10:19
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https://twitter.com/jjz1600/status/1032224489004781569?s=21 This shows two things: 1) bernie would’ve won 2) hillary was a hilariously weak and incompetent candidate
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Aug 22, 2018 12:26
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