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pmchem posted:I wrote a python script to stochastically optimize my auction draft strategy for tonight. ohgod what am I doing Great point about hit and miss. One year I made up 30 potential budgets for my roster and then the next auction my team fit none of them! The auction chart my dad and I wrote has been doing great, recently reaching the fifth spot on the first page of Google for common 2018 auction value search terms. Part of the reason is that, except for the fish bowl, we only do auction. Also thanks for the early help critiquing that list, everyone! A quick and dirty way is to grab someone else's values, then look at changes you might make based on rankings... They have Saquon above Gordon but you like Gordon better? Knock Saquon down a few bucks and Gordon up a few until they have switched places. Note: This is for 12+ man auctions. With 10 or fewer just throw everything out the window and get every guy you want because it's a candy store. When we actually sit down in May/June to write our chart, it takes 3-4 hours, but generally follows a few rules... Like a top 3 overall pick is usually worth somewhere around $65. Tweak it a little (or a lot) based on how they stack up to past top players. Then we work down from there: A tier 1A or 1B RB is usually worth high $40s to high $50s, a high end RB2 should clear $40... stuff like that. Gives us a baseline that we can tweak based on how much better/worse a player is looking compared to similarly ranked players from different years. Also, scarcity plays a big part, which is why our WR2s are lower than most of the rest of the industry: There's just so many you should wait for a bargain. The good thing about making an auction list for one particular draft is that you only have to list players you like. So instead of worrying about 180 players, just find 30-40 you like and figure out how much it's going to take to get them. Then piece together some sample rosters to see how it looks, assuming you're going to pay ~5% over market for the higher end (top 36) guys. Drunk Nerds fucked around with this message at 22:50 on Aug 25, 2018 |
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Aug 25, 2018 22:47
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Ayudo posted:My point isn't that he doesn't catch the ball at an elite level. It's that the Saints don't employ their scatback as a between the tackles bellcow. Both Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles have led the team in receptions in 2006 and 2011 receptively. And, Sproles also lead the team in rushing that year to the tune of 600 yards, but both Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas out carried him. Yeah, it's interesting to think about what's reasonable to expect from Kamara's workload. Rotoworld says he out-snapped Ingram over the last 8 games of the year, but he never out-carried him, and never exceeded 12 carries in a game. Ingram also remained super involved, edging Kamara out in carries 107 to 68 and being behind in receptions 27 to 44. If you bump Kamara's carries by 50% / 60, he's still only up to 180, and that would leave Ingram going from 230 to 170 if they all came from his totals. Is Kamara going to increase his receiving, after hitting 81 catches? He already had 100 targets, 19% share of team targets. Ingram had 58 on 71 targets. Those two, Michael Thomas, and Ginn made up the vast majority of the team's carries and targets, so not a whole lot of departed volume for Kamara to absorb, it really does have to come directly from Ingram or the receivers. Certainly seems like Kamara can siphon some work from Ingram, but not a ton. Keep his receiving numbers the same, add 60-80 carries from Ingram and AP, drop ypc to 5 and touchdown rate to Ingram's 12 TDs on 230 carries (which was the best I saw of the top 20ish RBs), and you're looking at a rushing line of 180-200 carries, 900-1000 yards, and 9-10 touchdowns, to go along with 80-800-5 receiving. That'd be behind DJ's 2016 by ~200 yards and ~5 touchdowns, and right around Bell's best. Feels fairly ceiling-ish to me, but what do any Kamara fans or detractors think? I suspect Ingram isn't going to cede that much to Kamara, and that perhaps Kamara's efficiency will dip below 5 ypc, but he seems like a great bet for top 5 numbers.
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Aug 25, 2018 23:28
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89 posted:I did. And now I'm slightly regretting it after doing more reading. Although, it's close and Melvin is gonna do just fine. Just to clarify... you took Melvin over Zeke?
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Aug 25, 2018 23:46
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So are we still jizzing on Taywon Taylor as this years Tajae Sharpe? The guy who seems quite ironically ahead of him in the order.
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Aug 25, 2018 23:54
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pmchem posted:I wrote a python script to stochastically optimize my auction draft strategy for tonight. ohgod what am I doing I should learn Python. Excel is starting to reach its limits for BeerSheets.
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Aug 25, 2018 23:57
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:I should learn Python. Excel is starting to reach its limits for BeerSheets. You wouldn't regret it.
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Aug 26, 2018 00:03
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That noise you hear is Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole's values crashing through the ceiling
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Aug 26, 2018 01:04
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Spoeank posted:That noise you hear is Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole's values crashing through the ceiling They're still Jags. No WR on that team was a high pick in fantasy, and they still won't be.
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Aug 26, 2018 01:12
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Gimme dat Dede
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Aug 26, 2018 01:14
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Alright guys, picking #4 out of 10 people. My main draft. QB: Andrew Luck RB: David Johnson RB: Dalvin Cook FLEX: Devonta Freeman WR: Doug Baldwin WR: Brandin Cooks WR: Chris Hogan TE: Delanie Walker K: whocares DL: Khalil Mack DL: Everson Griffen LB: Kwon Alexander LB: Mark Barron LB: Jordan Hicks DB: Reshad Jones DB: Karl Joseph Bench: Jerick McKinnon (5th round lol) Michael Crabtree Kerryon Johnson Marquis Goodwin Jordan Reed Sammy Watkins (22nd round) Isaiah Crowell (24th round) Courtland Sutton Carlos Dunlap Reuban Foster (will be a beast) Jatavis Brown 5th and 6th round was almost exclusively defense. Was an unpredictable draft, big time. Biiiig time. My draft was all about value.
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Aug 26, 2018 01:20
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Noted Undrafted: Peyton Barber and Keelan Cole. Only 4 waiver moves a week, so you gotta have a defensive bench. If anything, my bench is already tiny for defense.
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Aug 26, 2018 01:24
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I need to drop Sutton for Keelan Cole, don't i. Or Barber
89 fucked around with this message at 02:40 on Aug 26, 2018 |
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Aug 26, 2018 01:25
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pubic works project posted:Gimme dat Dede I’m super high on Dede but it’s mostly because I picked him up for $1 in dynasty before anyone in my league had even heard of him (thanks to the posters ITT).
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Aug 26, 2018 01:26
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Office league drafted tonight. Regular scoring except 0.5 PPR, 0.3 PPC and 0.1 per completion. I didn't draft a K or DST and I ran out of spots I wanted for upside WRs. I went RB/RB/RB to take advantage of the 0.3 PPC. If they are going to invite me to a ten team league they need to at least have the common courtesy of giving me like 25 bench spots to work with. Nick Chubb is in case poo poo gets weird with Hyde between now and week 1 and Keelan Cole is pending the Marqise Lee outcome. They're both likely to get bounced off the team before week 1 so I can get a kicker/DST 1. (4) Ezekiel Elliott (Dal - RB) 2. (17) Leonard Fournette (Jax - RB) 3. (24) Devonta Freeman (Atl - RB) 4. (37) Demaryius Thomas (Den - WR) 5. (44) Cam Newton (Car - QB) 6. (57) Allen Robinson II (Chi - WR) 7. (64) Marquise Goodwin (SF - WR) 8. (77) Carlos Hyde (Cle - RB) 9. (84) Cooper Kupp (LAR - WR) 10. (97) Jordan Reed (Was - TE) 11. (104) Tevin Coleman (Atl - RB) 12. (117) Michael Gallup (Dal - WR) 13. (124) Geronimo Allison (GB - WR) 14. (137) Nick Chubb (Cle - RB) 15. (144) Keelan Cole (Jax - WR)
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Aug 26, 2018 04:51
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Spoeank posted:Office league drafted tonight. Regular scoring except 0.5 PPR, 0.3 PPC and 0.1 per completion. I didn't draft a K or DST and I ran out of spots I wanted for upside WRs. I went RB/RB/RB to take advantage of the 0.3 PPC. If they are going to invite me to a ten team league they need to at least have the common courtesy of giving me like 25 bench spots to work with. Nick Chubb is in case poo poo gets weird with Hyde between now and week 1 and Keelan Cole is pending the Marqise Lee outcome. They're both likely to get bounced off the team before week 1 so I can get a kicker/DST in a points per carry league, that team looks really strong. Obviously a bit thin at WR, but any of those guys could blow up, and Keelan Cole suddenly has huge value with Lee likely out. Edit: I'd also grab a 2nd TE (or Vernon Davis) for when Jordan Reed gets injured and misses the rest of the season. Finished my .5ppr 12 man $200 auction league. Most of the value came super late, but people fought over a few guys with the remaining cash. RB's ended up being overpriced for most of the draft while most WR's went at cost or super cheap late. The guys who went stars and scrubs got a lot of value. I went for a mid range team, and I like it, but I think I faltered a bit by waiting so long before spending any money. TE's were also hosed. One guy went Gronk/Ertz and another took Engram/Graham/Ebron which left a few people (myself included) scrambling a bit. I have the whole draft board if anyone cares to see what it looks like. QB: Russel Wilson $11 RB: Jerrick McKinnon $37 RB: Alex Collins $23 WR: Devante Adams $40 WR: TY Hilton $28 TE: David Njoku $6 Flex: Doug Baldwin $26 K: Greg Zuerlein $3 DST: Vikings $3 Bench: Rex Burkhead $14 Bench: Jamison Crowder $2 Bench: Peyton Barber $2 Bench: Bilal Powell $2 Bench: Matt Brieda $2 Bench: Ricky Seals-Jones $1 Frustrated fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Aug 26, 2018 |
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Aug 26, 2018 07:23
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Adams is a WR1 so you didn't go all midrange guys! You'll be cutting Powell wk1 for a waiver add.
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Aug 26, 2018 15:13
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Alfalfa posted:12 Man 1 PPR - 7th Pick Reposting since Lee is now dead. Dropped him for John Brown and Doyle for Albert Wilson
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Aug 26, 2018 15:26
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Your RB corps is not in good shape considering that you have to start 2 each week. You basically need to hope Jamaal Williams pans out in a big way; I do not have faith in the rookies you drafted. Great value on Keenan. I wouldn't have dropped Doyle for Wilson. I think you may need to work a trade midseason.
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Aug 26, 2018 16:03
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Yeah you need RBs far more than you need Albert Wilson. Also https://twitter.com/Jeff_McLane/status/1033746582460608512
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Aug 26, 2018 17:07
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Deep leaguers/0 RB people should consider rostering Alfred Morris, especially if you have McKinnon.
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Aug 26, 2018 17:46
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Spoeank posted:Yeah you need RBs far more than you need Albert Wilson. I have 5 rb’s who will be pass catching backs and one cuff. In 1 ppr you don’t think that’s enough?
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Aug 26, 2018 20:28
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Just drafted my first team of the season. How did I do? 
ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Aug 26, 2018 |
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Aug 26, 2018 21:05
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Alfalfa posted:I have 5 rb’s who will be pass catching backs and one cuff. In 1 ppr you don’t think that’s enough? Four of your backs are injured and one stated himself he wont even be fully healthy until November (Thompson). If Morris makes the Niners you're involved in like 4 of the 5 messiest backfields Spoeank fucked around with this message at 21:23 on Aug 26, 2018 |
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Aug 26, 2018 21:17
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Kind of at a toss-up as far as who I should keep in one league. Isaiah Crowell for my 10th Rd Marvin Jones for my 11th Can only keep 1, 1PPR, 1pt/10yds. Thoughts?
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Aug 26, 2018 21:24
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Spoeank posted:Four of your backs are injured and one stated himself he wont even be fully healthy until November (Thompson). If Morris makes the Niners you're involved in like 4 of the 5 messiest backfields Think you believe too much into preseason “injuries”. McKinnon precautionary hold out of preseason Ajayi - precautionary hold out of preseason Johnson not hurt Thompson will play week 1 Penny ready week 1 Breida - handcuff I can go get Booker, Forenan, Gore, or Hines but that doesn’t seem to be helping anything.
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Aug 26, 2018 21:39
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Rick Grimes posted:Kind of at a toss-up as far as who I should keep in one league. Keep Jones. Crowell is getting shown up by Powell
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Aug 26, 2018 21:41
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Just helped a friend of mine draft in 10 person PPR league. QB: Matt Stafford / Ryan RB: Alvin Kamara / Jerick McKinnon / Alex Collins / Chris Thompson / James White WR: Keenan Allen / Larry Fitz / Doug Baldwin / Chris Hogan / Taiwan Taylor TE: Jack Doyle / Tyler Eifert Def: Saints K: I forgot They asked how it turned out and I told them congrats on your championship. I miss playing in leagues where people draft QBs in the 1st round and defenses in the 6th.
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Aug 26, 2018 21:50
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ROCK THE HOUSE M.D. posted:Just drafted my first team of the season. In general it's good to tell us scoring (particularly PPR) and the number of teams. QB: You drafted Rodgers. This means you either lucked out, or drafted him too early. Either way congratulations you have the best QB in the league. Mariota is wasting space on your bench. RB: Kamara was likely your first round pick, Cook your second. I think They're great starters. I definitely like the depth of Burkhead, who is likely a flex play, and Jones could be viable. WR: Your starters don't particularly excite me, but your bench does. Sanders looks great and could outscore DT, Nelson apparently has shown some great speed in camp and I'm a fan of what he could do in Oakland if Cooper continues to demonstrate that he can't consistently win a contested catch. TE: You drafted Ertz, therefore you don't need a backup. I would drop Mariota for a waiver wire flyer, and probably Ebron too.
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Aug 26, 2018 22:09
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:In general it's good to tell us scoring (particularly PPR) and the number of teams. Thanks, and sorry. 10 team standard yahoo scoring.
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Aug 26, 2018 22:19
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Have my first draft tonight and I'm lucky enough to get the first overall pick in a full PPR snake draft. And now I can't stop overthinking whether to take Bell or Gurley. 
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Aug 26, 2018 22:21
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Alfalfa posted:Think you believe too much into preseason “injuries”. Alright man if you feel good about it then go for it but I wouldn't vociferously defend McKinnon being uninjured and Thompson, out of his own mouth, said he wont be fully healthy until November. 
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Aug 26, 2018 22:25
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Spoeank posted:Alright man if you feel good about it then go for it but I wouldn't vociferously defend McKinnon being uninjured and Thompson, out of his own mouth, said he wont be fully healthy until November. Thompson won’t be great until later in the season for sure. McKinnon had a minor calf strain and is working full speed on side field. Just being benched rest of preseason as a precaution. That doesn’t scare me.
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Aug 26, 2018 23:54
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I picked 10th in a 10 team serpentine in a Yahoo rando league that I signed up for on a spur. Bye weeks in brackets. Here's my team! QB: Tom Brady (11), Deshaun Watson (10) WR: Julio Jones (8), Brandin Cooks (12), Marquise Goodwin (11), Kenny Stills (11), Courtland Sutton (10) RB: Jordan Howard (5), Adrian Peterson (4), Tevin Coleman (8), Dion Lewis (8) TE: Jimmy Graham (7), Cam Brate (5) K: Ryan Succop (8) Defence: Baltimore (10) Julio Jones was my first round pick.
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Aug 27, 2018 01:00
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Hey Beer, how often are you running beersheets atm? is it still just every sunday?
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Aug 27, 2018 01:21
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VietCampo posted:Hey Beer, how often are you running beersheets atm? is it still just every sunday? Every Tuesdays and Fridays, my work, family, and tabletop miniature wargaming obligations permitting.
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Aug 27, 2018 02:04
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Beer4TheBeerGod posted:Every Tuesdays and Fridays, my work, family, and tabletop miniature wargaming obligations permitting. Sweet thanks, that case i'll wait until Tuesdays.
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Aug 27, 2018 02:07
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Second draft of the season. I had the 2nd pick. Yahoo, 10 teams, settings below the roster.  I really like this team.
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Aug 27, 2018 02:56
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OxySnake posted:I miss playing in leagues where people draft QBs in the 1st round and defenses in the 6th. Family leagues, always and forever.
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Aug 27, 2018 02:56
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Thank you, Beersheets. In my ultra competitive 14 team 0.5 PPR league I drafted far and away the best team by ignoring my emotions and drafting the best player. Except Sammy Watkins, who is criminally low. 
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Aug 27, 2018 03:20
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You can't draft both Le'Veon Bell and D-Hopkins in an ultra-competitive 14-team 0.5 PPR league. There's just no way Hop falls back to near the turn at rounds 2/3. edit: unless you have some insane IDP scoring maybe, and those guys are going in rounds 1/2
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Aug 27, 2018 03:23
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