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phongn posted:Yes. But if you put an automated transfer switch in (like you would with a generator or backup battery) you could decouple from the grid without shutting down production. Enphase's trick is to maintain voltage stability in the face of rapidly shifting loads without the 'infinite stability' sink of a grid connection. It'll work a lot better with a battery - but since their own batteries use their normal microinverters they might as well have Ensemble work everywhere anyways. "Rapidly Shifting Loads - The Energy Generation Megathread" New thread title please.
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Aug 19, 2018 13:08
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so like... that is one hell of a holy grail for them to have achieved.... why is the stock down massively in the last few weeks? any chance this is basically just a press release and a very contrived press demo?
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Aug 19, 2018 13:24
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StabbinHobo posted:so like... that is one hell of a holy grail for them to have achieved.... why is the stock down massively in the last few weeks? They aren't doing well financially. The solar market is slowing a bit and their products are relatively expensive to produce compared to a string inverter or optimizer. They're easy for installers to deal with - 240VAC vs 600VDC - but otherwise merely competitive. Tough market to be in.
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Aug 19, 2018 22:43
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StabbinHobo posted:so like... that is one hell of a holy grail for them to have achieved.... why is the stock down massively in the last few weeks? I'd imagine Trump just hosed over the solar industry with those China sanctions. Also, I'm not sure if that Enphase stuff is such a novel idea. There has been an ongoing Kickstarter called Orison, it is a competitor to the Tesla Powerwall battery. The twist Orison is you plug it straight into a power outlet to charge it, and when the power goes out, it backfeeds the power straight back into the wall outlet. They claim it is safe because it can monitor the power in realtime, at a very fine level, and tell if there's a fault anywhere (for instance a ground fault, or arc, or electrician frying himself, it would theoretically shut the power off instantly). That sounds very similar to the technology Enphase is claiming to use, so it seems like multiple companies have access to this realtime backfeed monitoring. Orison might be full of poo poo, but if they are they'd be sued into oblivion from electricians getting fried (as would Enphase) so it seems like it must at least work on paper. One other thing: quote:The next load to be added was a grinder like you might find on your workbench in the garage. All by itself, that device drew roughly 1,200 Watts, bring our total load to roughly 2.3 kW - more than the maximum output of our simulated array. What would happen when that was added to the mix? Surprisingly little. The grinder spun normally, but the red light dimmed slightly. What was going on? The system’s “hive mind” had lowered the voltage slightly (a microgrid equivalent of a brown out) to meet the amperage demand of the new load mix! So slightly slower than normal, cooler than normal, dimmer than normal, but all operating. It is fine if analog appliances like toasters, blenders, and lightbulbs are getting a little less amperage than they can pull, but precision electronics like TVs and PCs do not appreciate brownouts and many power supplies will fry themselves trying to compensate.
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Aug 19, 2018 23:14
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StabbinHobo posted:so like... that is one hell of a holy grail for them to have achieved.... why is the stock down massively in the last few weeks? They have been having a hard time of it but then back in like May or June, SunPower announced that they were selling their microinverter department to Enphase who will in the future produce the microinverters for their ACPV modules starting at the end of 2018 instead of continuing to produce their own (SunPower microinverters have an efficiency of 96%, Enphase top line models are 97.5%). That was coupled with a very profitable quarterly earnings report, which together caused a massive jump in stock price which has slowly been falling, but it's still up quite a bit since January. They also have a load-shifting battery thing that has been doing well, but doesn't support off-grid on its own, rather just does solar self-consumption letting you charge batteries on solar in the day instead of sending it to the grid, then those batteries discharge in the evening peak hours, but discharge at a rate slow enough that you're just avoiding grid usage instead of sending electricity to the grid. I think the stock going down is just a continuation of that slow fall since there hasn't been much additional news otherwise. fermun fucked around with this message at 05:25 on Aug 20, 2018 |
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Aug 20, 2018 05:23
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Zero VGS posted:I'd imagine Trump just hosed over the solar industry with those China sanctions. quote:Also, I'm not sure if that Enphase stuff is such a novel idea. There has been an ongoing Kickstarter called Orison, it is a competitor to the Tesla Powerwall battery. The twist Orison is you plug it straight into a power outlet to charge it, and when the power goes out, it backfeeds the power straight back into the wall outlet. They claim it is safe because it can monitor the power in realtime, at a very fine level, and tell if there's a fault anywhere (for instance a ground fault, or arc, or electrician frying himself, it would theoretically shut the power off instantly). That sounds very similar to the technology Enphase is claiming to use, so it seems like multiple companies have access to this realtime backfeed monitoring. Orison might be full of poo poo, but if they are they'd be sued into oblivion from electricians getting fried (as would Enphase) so it seems like it must at least work on paper. quote:It is fine if analog appliances like toasters, blenders, and lightbulbs are getting a little less amperage than they can pull, but precision electronics like TVs and PCs do not appreciate brownouts and many power supplies will fry themselves trying to compensate. fermun posted:They also have a load-shifting battery thing that has been doing well, but doesn't support off-grid on its own, rather just does solar self-consumption letting you charge batteries on solar in the day instead of sending it to the grid, then those batteries discharge in the evening peak hours, but discharge at a rate slow enough that you're just avoiding grid usage instead of sending electricity to the grid.
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Aug 20, 2018 18:18
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fermun posted:They also have a load-shifting battery thing that has been doing well, but doesn't support off-grid on its own, rather just does solar self-consumption letting you charge batteries on solar in the day instead of sending it to the grid, then those batteries discharge in the evening peak hours, but discharge at a rate slow enough that you're just avoiding grid usage instead of sending electricity to the grid. phongn posted:PowerWall and RESU are probably going to break their AC battery's business case, though. Both of them are a lot cheaper per-watt and per-watt-hour.
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Aug 20, 2018 19:13
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phongn posted:PowerWall and RESU are probably going to break their AC battery's business case, though. Both of them are a lot cheaper per-watt and per-watt-hour. That per-watt-hour really adds up in California too which is currently the largest home storage market because the SGIP incentive at $0.40/Wh. California also allows you to go without a NGOM (net generation-output meter) for up to 10.000kW of battery inverter which is easier and cheaper, then with PowerWall being sized at 5.000 kW per inverter, it is perfectly sized to get 2 and have a maximum 60A critical loads backed up, which for most people winds up being plenty for whole home backup
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Aug 20, 2018 20:55
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Infinite Karma posted:They're so much cheaper that they're all backordered for a year or more. It seems likely that they'll see a big price hike when they're available again, just because they can. fermun posted:That per-watt-hour really adds up in California too which is currently the largest home storage market because the SGIP incentive at $0.40/Wh. California also allows you to go without a NGOM (net generation-output meter) for up to 10.000kW of battery inverter which is easier and cheaper, then with PowerWall being sized at 5.000 kW per inverter, it is perfectly sized to get 2 and have a maximum 60A critical loads backed up, which for most people winds up being plenty for whole home backup phongn fucked around with this message at 21:32 on Aug 20, 2018 |
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Aug 20, 2018 21:30
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phongn posted:I have a Powerwall 2 on order ... since April 2017, basically for CA SGIP + Solar ITC reasons. I bought it through Swell Energy, and it looks like I just missed the last major wave of Powerwall shipments. They can't even tell me if I'll get an install this year. That's rough. Swell did a mass mailer to everyone in CA that had solar and built up a massive queue. The SGIP incentive program was also designed to prevent one company from hogging it all, so companies can fill up on an incentive step before the step has fully been filled. I think Swell is already on the final Step 5 incentive level and Tesla themselves have already used all 5 steps.
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Aug 20, 2018 21:50
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fermun posted:That's rough. Swell did a mass mailer to everyone in CA that had solar and built up a massive queue. The SGIP incentive program was also designed to prevent one company from hogging it all, so companies can fill up on an incentive step before the step has fully been filled. I think Swell is already on the final Step 5 incentive level and Tesla themselves have already used all 5 steps. In hindsight I kind of wish I had ordered two Powerwalls from Tesla instead to amortize the install cost over two units. $5800×2 + 30% of the total installed price probably would've netted close to positive. phongn fucked around with this message at 23:05 on Aug 20, 2018 |
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Aug 20, 2018 22:57
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phongn posted:Most residential panels in the USA aren't made in China (and Enphase is very much oriented to the residential/small commercial market). Also, the panels are "only" a third of a typical install price (labor another third, and balance-of-system the final amount) so it didn't push up prices that much, if at all. At least in the case of Sunpower, I know that they make their solar cells in the USA, but then they ship them to the Philippines/China to have them encapsulated into panels, then they are shipped back. This article from January says most panels are from Malaysia: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/trump-taxes-solar-imports-in-biggest-blow-to-clean-energy-yet I assume Trump's tariffs affect most foreign imports and not just China? This is one of the few articles with an optimistic outlook on price, so you might be right that it's not a big deal, I certainly hope so: https://www.solar-estimate.org/news/2018-01-24-how-will-trumps-solar-tariffs-affect-residential-solar-panel-costs-2018
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Aug 20, 2018 23:47
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phongn posted:Swell claims that the rebates will be paid based on original application date (if not I'll almost certainly cancel). They also claimed that Tesla wasn't going to be processing SGIP rebates - so that their inflated installation price would still be cheaper. Turns out Tesla decided to start processing rebates a couple weeks(!) before the program started (and individuals could've submitted rebates themselves, though the paperwork was kind of opaque to understand). Oh yeah, they do process rebates based on when it was applied for, I'd forgotten. It's about a 2 month review before it gets reserved, then 12 month reservation, then the contractor can ask for a 6 month extension with no justification, a second 6 month extension by just saying equipment availability is limited, and a third 6 month extension and I don't know what the requirements are there but it requires more justification than just saying "hey, we couldn't get the Powerwall" so you probably have at least until late June 2019 at whatever step you had it reserved at, as long as Swell requests the extensions.
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Aug 21, 2018 00:03
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So, I know Musk is running around being a dumbass on twitter, skirting security fraud to stick it to the short sellers, but isn't this a really good sign for Tesla? 7th most sales in July 5th-6th most sales in August Tesla total August sales may be higher than BMW's total August sales
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Aug 21, 2018 03:58
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Charlz Guybon posted:So, I know Musk is running around being a dumbass on twitter, skirting security fraud to stick it to the short sellers, but isn't this a really good sign for Tesla? How is that a good sign for Tesla when they're refusing to pay their producers for the very materials needed to build their cars? Also your second link has 0 real data, it just makes up some numbers and says there might bemore Model 3s "sold" than Sentras. The first link only places the Model 3 so high because it excludes pickups, crossovers, and SUVs - the three best selling kinds of passenger vehicles in the whole country. And exceeding BMW for sales in America is no high bar, BMW is approximately 2% of the US new car market. Let alone how most of the minor car makers for the US market sell far more cars in other regions, but Tesla's sales are for the most part restricted to US/Canada and whichever countries still have favorable tax rebates available (which is less all the time).
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Aug 21, 2018 04:51
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Tesla is in the market for luxury cars, so cars and BMW as the flagship brand of luxury cars should be the natural comparison to make.
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Aug 21, 2018 05:00
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Charlz Guybon posted:Tesla is in the market for luxury cars, so cars and BMW as the flagship brand of luxury cars should be the natural comparison to make. There are also at least 4 other threads dedicated to Tesla where you might get more specific answers.
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Aug 21, 2018 05:19
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Charlz Guybon posted:Tesla is in the market for luxury cars, so cars and BMW as the flagship brand of luxury cars should be the natural comparison to make. No, Tesla doesn't make luxury cars, just luxury prices. Might as well say those Lamborghinis that do 300 mph are "luxury", they're just expensive and a certain kind of a performance car, they ain't too comfortable. This is especially of note as the Model 3s have absolutely horrid cheap interiors with a bad awkward control scheme as part of it. That's practically anti-luxury even though Elon refuses to sell you one for less than $50k now. Also, Mercedes-Benz does nearly 20% more sales int he US market than BMW, with a higher propotion of fancy vehicles, to say nothing of things like how many of the larger manufacturers have a luxury brand but also luxury models/lines within the core brand - Toyota/Lexus, Volkswagen/Audi, Ford/Lincoln.
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Aug 21, 2018 05:25
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Enphase's analysts briefing is up and there's more details in their grid-out systems:
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Aug 22, 2018 18:42
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Looks like Cali will pass the 100% renewable by 2045 bill this year http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-renewable-energy-goal-bill-20180828-story.html Colorado building zero coal, zero gas, all renewable https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/08/28/colorado-trades-away-coal-and-gas-for-solarwindstorage/ Texas going green, building zero coal, 86% wind and solar https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/08/23/texas-going-green-86-of-future-capacity-solar-or-wind-zero-coal/
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Aug 29, 2018 06:31
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Charlz Guybon posted:Looks like Cali will pass the 100% renewable by 2045 bill this year This one isn't a sure thing just yet, it's like 95%+ at the moment. While it's passed the legislature and is endorsed by former Republican governor Arnie, the bill's author Democrat Kevin De Leon (who is endorsed by the state Democratic party) is running against 5-time incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein (who is endorsed by most of the state Democratic party officials, including Governor Brown) in the general election and she doesn't want De Leon to have a big policy victory just before the general election. fermun fucked around with this message at 06:53 on Aug 29, 2018 |
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Aug 29, 2018 06:49
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As the CA politics thread states in it's title, gently caress DiFi. Is she really capable of holding this up? Is Brown going to hold off on signing it till after the election just as a favor to her?
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Aug 29, 2018 22:23
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She's probably not capable of holding it up, and Brown is likely going to sign it. There's just a small chance that it gets derailed from stupid poo poo, but it'd be a bad look so I don't think it will. In other CA news, SB700 passed today extending the SGIP incentive which handles behind-the-meter storage. SGIP now runs through 2025. https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2018/08/california-is-one-step-closer-to-3-gw-of-new-energy-storage-systems-through-rebate-extension/
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Aug 29, 2018 22:36
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Charlz Guybon posted:Looks like Cali will pass the 100% renewable by 2045 bill this year Is this 100% Renewable of what California produces or will produce? Or 100% Renewable of what California needs to produce to meet their state's demand? (I was under the impression California imports like 1/3 of their electricity from neighboring states. Some of which is from the Pacific Northwest which is predominately hydroelectric. Some from Arizona which is nuclear. And some from other areas supplyg natural gas.)
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Aug 30, 2018 04:00
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Senor P. posted:Is this 100% Renewable of what California produces or will produce? It's regulated at what is sold, so 100% renewable of what California consumes and doesn't allow for out-of-state procurement that results in resource reshuffling that makes California more renewable but other states in the western grid less renewable. https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=201720180SB100
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Aug 30, 2018 04:52
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Didn’t the wording get changed from specifically 100% renewable to 100% carbon free at the last minute?
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Aug 30, 2018 08:16
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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suck my woke dick posted:Didn’t the wording get changed from specifically 100% renewable to 100% carbon free at the last minute? I hope so. Build some nukes, cali.
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Aug 30, 2018 08:34
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Taffer posted:I hope so. Build some nukes, cali. It actually still has room to. While the references of the law don't consider nuclear to be 'renewable', regardless of the name or the change from 'renewable' to 'carbon-free', the 100% by 2045 is also not law, regardless of the name: it's a set planning policy, but the law only provides for 60% Section 25741 renewable by 2030.
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Aug 30, 2018 09:01
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Taffer posted:I hope so. Build some nukes, cali. The plan is to do it without nukes, since none of the utilities in the state want to operate nukes anymore. But if they do it, who cares what generation mix gets them to 100%.
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Aug 30, 2018 16:45
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Trabisnikof posted:The plan is to do it without nukes, since none of the utilities in the state want to operate nukes anymore. I do. If they don't use nukes they'll either get tons of hydro (also terrible for tons of reasons) or fail and change the law before the deadline. Storage of renewables is looking promising but I don't see it covering the power needs of California before that deadline.
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Aug 30, 2018 17:15
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Taffer posted:I do. If they don't use nukes they'll either get tons of hydro (also terrible for tons of reasons) or fail and change the law before the deadline. Storage of renewables is looking promising but I don't see it covering the power needs of California before that deadline.
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Aug 30, 2018 17:36
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Taffer posted:I do. If they don't use nukes they'll either get tons of hydro (also terrible for tons of reasons) or fail and change the law before the deadline. Storage of renewables is looking promising but I don't see it covering the power needs of California before that deadline. I think you're incorrect about the analysis that mixed renewables, storage and demand response will be able to meet the goals. The California Public Utility Commission has been very aggressive in ordering utilities to build out storage and demand response alongside renewables. Besides its a moot point since PG&E is shutting down Diablo Canyon in 2024 and doesn't want a new plant, SONGS is shut down and SCE & SDG&E don't want to build a new one. Its just too financially risky to operate such complex plants in our capitalist environment (see: SONGS/Crystal River).
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Aug 30, 2018 17:44
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fermun posted:This one isn't a sure thing just yet, it's like 95%+ at the moment. While it's passed the legislature and is endorsed by former Republican governor Arnie, the bill's author Democrat Kevin De Leon (who is endorsed by the state Democratic party) is running against 5-time incumbent Democrat Dianne Feinstein (who is endorsed by most of the state Democratic party officials, including Governor Brown) in the general election and she doesn't want De Leon to have a big policy victory just before the general election. I’m hoping this is incorrect but.... https://insideepaclimate.com/daily-news/brown-holds-back-california-clean-energy-bill-win-other-measures quote:California Gov. Jerry Brown (D) appears to be withholding his support for a landmark bill poised to reach his desk that would require 100 percent “zero-carbon” energy by 2045 in order to persuade state lawmakers to back his own priorities, including a measure to create an expanded Western electricity market.
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Aug 30, 2018 20:17
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On the nuclear front, there's an interesting report from MIT on what might make nuclear come back: https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/09/mapping-what-it-would-take-for-a-renaissance-for-nuclear-energy/ tldr: quote:nuclear could be cost competitive once renewable penetration is high enough
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Sep 7, 2018 19:38
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Trabisnikof posted:On the nuclear front, there's an interesting report from MIT on what might make nuclear come back: In response let me just say: LOL Vogtle.
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Sep 8, 2018 04:22
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ulmont posted:In response let me just say: LOL Vogtle. actually  : LOL VC Summer.But really massive cost overruns are to be expected for the first new plants in a generation, half the nuclear construction supply chain needs to rebuild itself and the other half needs to unfuck itself.
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Sep 8, 2018 08:15
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Killing the NRC, making the DOE take over their function, have a mission to either directly build out the US nuclear power industry and sell it at cost to the grid should be a priority. Nothing else but a massive will will get it jumpstarted again.
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Sep 8, 2018 21:44
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The Dipshit posted:Killing the NRC, making the DOE take over their function, have a mission to either directly build out the US nuclear power industry and sell it at cost to the grid should be a priority. Nothing else but a massive will will get it jumpstarted again. This would jumpstart nuclear at China levels, especially if combined with less deregulated electricity markets. Alternatively, and maybe (or not) politically more feasible, whoever succeeds Trump could just institute a fuckoff huge carbon tax that flat-out prices coal out of the market and severely squeezes gas, so that the grid will be 50% nuke 45% random renewables 5% peaking gas or whatever.
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Sep 9, 2018 00:07
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None of that happens of the US doesn't nationalize the energy market. The capital requirements and risks for nuclear essentially preclude private investment. Republicans have no incentive to push nuclear over gas, and Democrats have no desire or stomach to reduce industrial regulation in ways that'd ease capital risk/requirements. Nuclear is dying and, absent a massive societal-level change or technological breakthrough like cold fusion, soon to be dead.
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Sep 9, 2018 00:24
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Do you think once the effects of climate change really start to hit, it will have a revival? Probably not, at that point it will be too late. Who are we kidding it's already too late.
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Sep 9, 2018 06:57
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