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Fast Luck posted:Oh cool, I got roped into a league with some coworkers a couple years back but am pretty half-hearted about following ff so I wasn’t sure how my team was looking. My prep consisted of scanning this thread and stumbling on beersheets. The fact it is 1ppr helps your case some. And if Cam doesn’t work out, there’s always a Goff-esque QB2 out there, ala Mahomes or Handsome James. Khalil Mack to the Bears, it’s leaning.
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Sep 1, 2018 14:45
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Let's talk David Johnson vs Le'Veon Bell in PPR. DJ and Bell have very, very similar projections and are consistently #2-#3 in some order in rankings. Usually Bell as #2. I'm starting to think DJ should be #2. Fantasy football is a weekly game. In 2017, after his holdout, Bell's week 1 stat line was this: 10 attempts for 32 yards, 3 receptions for 15 yards. A whopping 7.7 points in PPR. Against a great matchup too, the hapless Browns in what ended up being a close (3-point) game where PIT should have needed Bell. The point is, you can't _trust_ Bell in week 1 this season, even if he ends his holdout today. He will likely be very limited in touches and could easily produce waiver-wire level results. You're probably throwing away 1/12 of the regular season for your #2 overall pick. If you miss the playoffs by 1 game, it does you no good that he averages a half point better than DJ for other regular season games. Given that you don't want to punt week 1 with a top-3 pick, why not just pick the overall #1 player in fantasy from 2016, David Johnson, over Bell and call it a day? Anyone want to make a counter-argument?
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Sep 1, 2018 16:03
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The general consensus seems to be they are pretty equal. Take whichever one you personally feel better about. There's certainly no one who would say "WHAT? YOU TOOK DJ OVER BELL?!" Or vice versa.
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Sep 1, 2018 16:10
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DJ went 2nd in my .5 PPR league. Bell starts slow and doesn't play all 16 games.
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Sep 1, 2018 16:10
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pmchem posted:Let's talk David Johnson vs Le'Veon Bell in PPR. DJ and Bell have very, very similar projections and are consistently #2-#3 in some order in rankings. Usually Bell as #2. Bell is in a superior offense, with arguably a better line and a better QB. You can always shelve him week 1 but you cherry picked a single sample. DJ can have a horrible Week 10 and we’d be none the wiser.
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Sep 1, 2018 16:41
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Bell & DJ are basically the same. If you fear the repercussions of the holdout more than you fear the repercussions of a bad offense then have at it. Personally, I have DJ over Bell or Bell over DJ depending on how I slept the night before. It's a razor thin margin
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Sep 1, 2018 16:49
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Suave Fedora posted:Bell is in a superior offense, with arguably a better line and a better QB. You can always shelve him week 1 but you cherry picked a single sample. DJ can have a horrible Week 10 and we’d be none the wiser. Anyone can have a horrible week, but there's a logical cause/effect for arguing that Bell is going to have a poor week 1. Can you provide an example of a player holding out until a few days before NFL week 1 kicks off, and then getting their typical RB1 or WR1 number of touches?
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Sep 1, 2018 18:13
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pmchem posted:Anyone can have a horrible week, but there's a logical cause/effect for arguing that Bell is going to have a poor week 1. Can you provide an example of a player holding out until a few days before NFL week 1 kicks off, and then getting their typical RB1 or WR1 number of touches? In 2017 he had 10 rushing attempts, 3 receptions. I believe the Steelers have been tagging him for like what, the last three years? 2016: 18 rushing attempts, 5 rec 2015: 19, 7 Every player’s situation is different. Is he more likely to have reduced reps over anyone else? Sure. I’d still pick him over DJ because he’s in a superior system. That’s probably why his pre-draft ADP is consistently ranked above DJ. Like someone else mentioned, you’re not going to be met with incredulity by drafting DJ over Bell. I’m just giving you my preference based on how much more I value one situation over another. Over RoS, Bell will have more and better quality opportunities in which to be fantasy-productive.
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Sep 1, 2018 18:47
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Suave Fedora posted:In 2017 he had 10 rushing attempts, 3 receptions. I believe the Steelers have been tagging him for like what, the last three years? He didn't holdout in 2015 or 2016, he logged preseason game stats in each of those years. He did miss the start of each regular season due to suspension. So I don't think those years compare to 2017.
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Sep 1, 2018 19:28
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Welp, there goes my RB3 in one of my leagues. https://twitter.com/JeneBramel/status/1035982999286947841
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Sep 1, 2018 21:10
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Silly Burrito posted:Welp, there goes my RB3 in one of my leagues. Looks like 89 was predicting the future on this one. Just scooped up Morris in my league of record.
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Sep 1, 2018 21:11
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JerRIP amirite. Alf is 100% the guy to get, not Breida
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Sep 1, 2018 21:18
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Nah, I'm likely going with Breida. He may not be ready for week 1, but that offense is going to run through Jimmy G and the passing game, where Alf will definitely cede snaps to Breida. There's a reason they didn't bother to bring in Alf until someone got hurt.
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Sep 1, 2018 21:23
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Okay you guys pick up Morris again this time fer real
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Sep 1, 2018 21:28
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When would you ever start Morris even if McKinnon is out? At best he's in a 50/50 timeshare with Breida, but more likely he's seeing like 25% of the snaps or less, right?
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Sep 1, 2018 21:36
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Leperflesh posted:When would you ever start Morris even if McKinnon is out? At best he's in a 50/50 timeshare with Breida, but more likely he's seeing like 25% of the snaps or less, right? Look, I've already dropped Ken Dixon for him. You can't talk me out of this now.
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Sep 1, 2018 21:39
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Fire up your Alfbreidas
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Sep 1, 2018 21:41
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I can’t help but chuckle at the guy in the twitter comments who bane-drafted both McKinnon and Guice.
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Sep 1, 2018 21:44
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My only issue is that I don't have anyone else I really want to drop for Breida/Alf. I could drop McKinnon, but I don't know if he's out for the year, or just a few weeks.
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Sep 1, 2018 21:48
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Leperflesh posted:When would you ever start Morris even if McKinnon is out? At best he's in a 50/50 timeshare with Breida, but more likely he's seeing like 25% of the snaps or less, right?
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Sep 1, 2018 21:59
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Morris is this year's Christine Michael.
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Sep 1, 2018 22:15
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Silly Burrito posted:My only issue is that I don't have anyone else I really want to drop for Breida/Alf. I could drop McKinnon, but I don't know if he's out for the year, or just a few weeks. Can't drop your kicker? It sounds like they suspect a torn ACL, if you were counting on McKinnon as a starter you should make a move.
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Sep 1, 2018 22:17
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I always underestimate how much people love backup QBs. We were down to Goff, Smith, Mariota and Mahomes by the time I drafted Goff in the 13th, because 7 of the 10 teams drafted backup QBs. I mean I’ve got a lot of depth but hooo boy that “draft rivers in the 11th or 12th” sure backfired in round 6.
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Sep 1, 2018 22:20
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dkj posted:Morris is this year's Christine Michael. Buddy Christine Michael is this year's Christine Michael
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Sep 1, 2018 22:22
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Actually, I am amending my opinion on Breida/Morris. For some reason, I thought Breida was bigger than 5'10" 190. That is quite small to be a volume guy. The situation still makes me think of the LeGarrette Blount/Dion Lewis Patriots though. You put in one guy and you're tipping your hand it's a run basically every time; whereas the other guy offers more versatility for the passing offense, which runs through the elite QB. I want to like the second guy more but Morris' volume upside is potentially quite high and that can't be ignored. Go Alf, go.
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Sep 1, 2018 22:25
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I'm in a 14 team no-PPR league and was hoping for big things from McKinnon. How ruined is my season at this point? Here's my RB situation (we can start up to 3): -Melvin Gordon -Rex Burkhead -Alfred Morris (just picked up) -Marlon Mack -McKinnon (IR/dead) -Devontae Booker The top RBs on the waiver wire are T.J. Yeldon, Nyheim Hines, and Spencer Ware. Should I start planning for 2019 now, or is this salvagable?
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Sep 1, 2018 22:27
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Melvin Gordon has an outside shot of being the #1 RB in the land and you have multiple RB2s there. You're ok
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Sep 1, 2018 22:30
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axelord posted:Can't drop your kicker? It sounds like they suspect a torn ACL, if you were counting on McKinnon as a starter you should make a move. Eh, he was my 3rd RB/flex taken in the fifth or sixth round. I already did the "don't draft a kicker" trick and finally picked one up. Out of everyone here, I could drop Michael Gallup, but I'm going with him as a lottery ticket. 
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Sep 1, 2018 22:34
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Good thing I got Morris last time!
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Sep 1, 2018 22:35
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Santheb posted:I always underestimate how much people love backup QBs. We were down to Goff, Smith, Mariota and Mahomes by the time I drafted Goff in the 13th, because 7 of the 10 teams drafted backup QBs. My league is the same way. I want to say it’s more of a “gotta have a plan B for everything” mindset. I’m guilty.
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Sep 1, 2018 22:37
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Silly Burrito posted:Eh, he was my 3rd RB/flex taken in the fifth or sixth round. I already did the "don't draft a kicker" trick and finally picked one up. Out of everyone here, I could drop Michael Gallup, but I'm going with him as a lottery ticket. Why not just drop your kicker, wait to hear if it is a torn ACL and then drop McKinnon for a kicker when the news hits.
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Sep 1, 2018 22:41
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axelord posted:Why not just drop your kicker, wait to hear if it is a torn ACL and then drop McKinnon for a kicker when the news hits. I see what you mean now. Yeah, someone dropped Ronald Jones to pick up Alf. Think I'll pick up Jordan Wilkins for the kicker, see if Jones makes it through waivers so I don't waste my spot, and then drop McKinnon if I have to. Thanks for the advice.
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Sep 1, 2018 22:44
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My league has a supplemental draft for any players that were drafted above $5 that get injured before the season starts. We lock all rosters and don't allow waivers till after the supplemental draft. Assuming McKinnon is out for the season would you pick up Alfred Morris or Adrian Peterson? I already have Breida.
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Sep 1, 2018 23:27
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I already had Morris in dynasty, scooped him up in redraft as well. What could go wrong!
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Sep 1, 2018 23:29
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It's an ACL, out for the year, JerRIP
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Sep 1, 2018 23:54
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The RB culling started early this year.
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Sep 2, 2018 00:04
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McKinnon is officially Out. Moveable to IR slot on ESPN leagues.
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Sep 2, 2018 00:35
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and there goes the most overhyped RB this fantasy season.
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Sep 2, 2018 00:37
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Let this be the only RB sacrificed to the football gods, please.
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Sep 2, 2018 01:01
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I dropped a kicker for Morris, then the ACL news became official. Not sure who I'll drop before week 1: Ebron, Cole, or Cobb. I could also drop Aaron Jones, but I have him backing up Jamaal Williams and will be able to keep Jones for $1 next year if I keep him rostered all season. And now that all the 49er RB chat is handled, I'm still interested in the Bell vs DJ argument in PPR, based on Bell's expected wet turd in week 1. Since fantasy is a weekly game and not a roto game, isn't DJ the better pick?
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Sep 2, 2018 01:03
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