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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I gotta wonder if they're nudging Assad to make an attack just so all this PR isnt wasted. Assad doesn't need any nudging when it comes to gassing Syrians. Russia's game in Syria is supporting Assad in whatever he does. For the people who think the false flag stuff is incredibly dumb and obvious - you aren't the intended audience.
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Sep 11, 2018 18:50
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Maybe assad knows that if he loses in idlib or doesnt gain ground fast enough he will suffer the same fate as he would by gassing civilians. At least in a gassing scenario russia will still try to maintain a bulwark against american intervention via denial and 'proof'false flag propaganda whereas if idlib ends in some heroic victory for the rebels russia may just turn its back.
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Sep 11, 2018 19:40
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LeoMarr posted:Maybe assad knows that if he loses in idlib or doesnt gain ground fast enough he will suffer the same fate as he would by gassing civilians. At least in a gassing scenario russia will still try to maintain a bulwark against american intervention via denial and 'proof'false flag propaganda whereas if idlib ends in some heroic victory for the rebels russia may just turn its back. The regime stomped the same rebel groups pretty hard when they invaded southern Aleppo. Maybe Idlib is better fortified, and maybe the concentration of forces for the rebels in a smaller territory places them in a relatively stronger position locally, but there's no way they're actually going to win any kind of heroic victory. The most the regime has to fear is that they lose a lot of lives in the process of winning, and/or that Turkey rushes in their forces to serve as human shields if the conflict drags on too long and international condemnation of a humanitarian crisis ensues. Honestly I don't see a rational reason for the regime to provoke a Western response by using chemical weapons, but I didn't see one the last time they did it either, so I guess their calculation is different from mine. I mean maybe they feel that they should be able to use chlorine weapons since they're in more of a gray area than other CW, and they got away with doing so for a long time without anywhere near the scrutiny they faced when they used sarin, but whether they think it's "fair" or not, I think broad use of chlorine is going to be perceived differently now than it was a couple years ago. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 20:37 on Sep 11, 2018 |
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Sep 11, 2018 20:32
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Sinteres posted:The regime stomped the same rebel groups pretty hard when they invaded southern Aleppo. Maybe Idlib is better fortified, and maybe the concentration of forces for the rebels in a smaller territory places them in a relatively stronger position locally, but there's no way they're actually going to win any kind of heroic victory. The most the regime has to fear is that they lose a lot of lives in the process of winning, and/or that Turkey rushes in their forces to serve as human shields if the conflict drags on too long and international condemnation of a humanitarian crisis ensues. Honestly I don't see a rational reason for the regime to provoke a Western response by using chemical weapons, but I didn't see one the last time they did it either, so I guess their calculation is different from mine. I mean maybe they feel that they should be able to use chlorine weapons since they're in more of a gray area than other CW, and they got away with doing so for a long time without anywhere near the scrutiny they faced when they used sarin, but whether they think it's "fair" or not, I think broad use of chlorine is going to be perceived differently now than it was a couple years ago.
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Sep 11, 2018 20:56
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LeoMarr posted:They gassed the rebel pockets n the south heavily prior to territorial gains. I don't recall hearing much about chemical weapons in the series of battles I'm talking about in the eastern third of Greater Idlib. The regime did seem to cynically use a group of ISIS fighters they'd allowed to take root there to split the rebels, but mostly they just had their way with the rebels by attacking from multiple axes with superior force and forcing them to abandon a bunch of territory after extending a salient that could have left a bunch of rebels pocketed. At the time there was speculation that the SAA was going to continue to drive for Idlib city and/or Foua, since Nusra was performing worse than anyone really expected, but Turkey's screaming that they were violating the terms of the agreement they'd made with Russia (and accompanying checkpoints they started setting up to block further advances) finally got the regime to quit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northwestern_Syria_campaign_(October_2017%E2%80%93February_2018) In other news, the US doesn't seem to have noticed the Iranian consulate in Basra burned down: https://twitter.com/JackDetsch_ALM/status/1039614210722983937 Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Sep 12, 2018 |
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Sep 12, 2018 00:47
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Crazycryodude posted:Well, it's working No it's not and he's dead and forgotten lol.
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Sep 12, 2018 02:11
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Frond posted:The Mujahideen were incredible pieces of poo poo but the Soviets were retards that couldn’t stop murdering and raping civilians and the Khalqis were the dumbest motherfuckers imagineable. Frond posted:Amin and Taraki did through gross incompetence. How is it that you can have sane and realistic opinions about Afghanistan that resemble reality but you're literally incapable of believing that Syria is an Alawite-dominated state, a fact which Syrians themselves are very well acquainted and which is noted by various scholarly works on the subject? It's something that many people didn't know before the civil war, but it's something that we've discussed for years in this thread when all the Sunni units began defecting en masse and Alawites were all getting gangpressed into combat units because Sunnis weren't considered reliable enough for frontline duty? Just FYI this isn't the first civil war Syria's had about Alawite dominance of the country. The "Hama Massacre" where Daddy Assad razed the city to the ground and butchered its inhabitants was actually part of a 6-year long insurgency of the Muslim Brotherhood rebelling against rule by a sect they considered heretical and the biggest tipping point was when a Sunni commander organized the massacre of 83 Alawite cadets at the Aleppo Artillery School in 1979. To understand HOW the Alawites came to dominate Syria and WHY it's such a huge deal, imagine if a Jew became the Czar of Russia or a Dalit became the Maharaja of India. They were an extremely marginalized and hated group which lived in mountain villages near the coast that were easily defensible so people wouldn't gently caress with them. Sunnis had been the dominant class of Syria for centuries. When the French took over, they encouraged Druze, Circassians, & Alawites to join the Syrian military, as they considered them to be fierce and warlike people who'd be "reliable" enforcers of the colonial regime. They even gave the Druze and Alawites special privileges, allowing them to be semi-independent regions. After the French left, Alawites and Druze continued to join the Syrian military in disproportionate numbers because it was an opportunity for social advancement, as they had lived as destitute paupers under Sunni landlords prior. Syria's conscription laws also meant that marginalized minorities would be more likely to be conscripted into the military, since wealthier urban Sunnis could better afford the "redemption fee" to stay a civilian. By the late 1950s and early 1960s they formed a plurality of enlisted soldiers and a majority of NCOs. Because the Sunni mercantile and land-owning classes held scorn for military service, eventually the Druze and Alawites held de facto control over the Syrian military. With each military coup throughout the 1950s and 1960s, a shrinking cadre of Sunni military officers fought amongst themselves and weakened their position. In 1953 the Baath Party merged with the Arab Socialist Party which drew much of its power from rural peasants and especially Alawites. When Egypt and Syria merged together in 1961, Alawites formed a secret society within the Baath Party that opposed unification and they landed on top when unification failed. Purge after purge of the military saw Sunni commanders killing each other as perceived threats and Alawites filling their ranks until they were the dominant group. Then in 1966 and 1968, the Alawites purged the Druze and Ismailis from the Syrian military. Hafez al-Assad continually participated in coups until he was President of Syria and he further cemented the Alawites as being the dominant class of the military, intelligence services, and and security apparatuses. After the bloody civil war of the 1980s, the Alawites further marginalized the Sunni population in the halls of power to ensure that another Aleppo Artillery School Massacre would never happen again. By taking over the apparatus of the state in a very centrally ran nation, they also became the gatekeepers to many jobs within its byzantine civilian infrastructure. Credit and loans came easier from the banks. Permits and school admissions got through much faster and without the same bribes. Syria was doing alright for itself for economically but it remained one of the most repressive police states in the Middle East. Eventually its economy collapsed as a massive drought completely destroyed its agricultural sector from 2006 to 2011. This drought was the worst drought the nation had seen in almost 1000 years and it halved the GDP and shut down 75% of the farms. Masses of rural Sunnis, who now filled out the ranks of the disenfranchised population, flocked to the cities as their farms failed, causing massive civil unrest as competition over resources triggered mass resentment and protest. Those protests, initially peaceful, were met with machine-guns and artillery. Who knows what would have happened had Assad stepped down. Would the Alawites have lost power? Probably not. Would the civil war have happened anyways? Most likely, but c'est la vie.
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Sep 12, 2018 04:50
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Also, Frond, in case you were unaware of the nature of our war in Afghanistan, it's basically an ethnic civil war against Pashtuns with ethnic minorities who formerly comprised the Northern Alliance (Hazara, Tajik, Uzbek, Turkmen, etc) being the dominant coalition within Afghan's state and military apparatus and token Pashtun loyalist support. Just like Assad can use the "I have a black friend" defense, the Afghan Government usually puts a Pashtun in charge. Dostum got away with rear end-raping a lot of his rivals before they finally pressed charges, and he's STILL back in Kabul nowadays because without Dostum you don't have control over the Uzbeks. The fact that the Taliban is gutfucking ISIS in Afghanistan instead of welcoming them to the jihad should tell you all you need to know. Also BTW guys Mullah Omar was never going to hand Osama Bin Laden over because Pashtun culture is like its own totally separate sacred thing and part of the Pashtunwali is that you are welcoming and hospitable to guests.
Sergg fucked around with this message at 05:11 on Sep 12, 2018 |
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Sep 12, 2018 05:02
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Warbadger posted:Assad doesn't need any nudging when it comes to gassing Syrians. Russia's game in Syria is supporting Assad in whatever he does. This. I run into people on facebook who are convinced that Russian media is the only source of truthful reporting on Syria on an almost monthly basis. It's horrifyingly dumb, but apparently working.
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Sep 12, 2018 11:56
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Tias posted:This. I run into people on facebook who are convinced that Russian media is the only source of truthful reporting on Syria on an almost monthly basis. It's horrifyingly dumb, but apparently working. And when you point out that Russian media lies as well (with many examples if they need convincing) then they just go "oh they all lie anyway, so you can't trust anyone at all I guess".
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Sep 12, 2018 12:16
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Both sides lie but at least with the Western media it's possible to discern the kernels of truth from amidst the company/government line. From what I've watched of Russian news sources it watches like 100% propaganda and I don't know how anyone could take it seriously. They could take a line from Western media ie take a few hits by allowing some independent reporting to retain a shred of integrity that allows you to push the viewpoint you're ultimately going for.
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Sep 12, 2018 12:53
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Flayer posted:Both sides lie but at least with the Western media it's possible to discern the kernels of truth from amidst the company/government line. From what I've watched of Russian news sources it watches like 100% propaganda and I don't know how anyone could take it seriously. They could take a line from Western media ie take a few hits by allowing some independent reporting to retain a shred of integrity that allows you to push the viewpoint you're ultimately going for. they do do that, by also publishing and supporting reputable (or formerly reputable) journalists and commentators who find themselves on the fringe for whatever reason eg sy hersh
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Sep 12, 2018 13:05
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The aim of the Russian propaganda isn't to be believed, it's to make sure factual information isn't believed. Same thing as what Trump does when he calls everything "fake news". They're not interested in merely giving a slanted take on facts, they're interested in destroying the entire concept of facts. They don't want to be a detractor, they want to make it impossible for detraction to exist.
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Sep 12, 2018 13:09
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Toplowtech posted:The real question is: do you want Afghanistan to be your responsibility as a puppet country until the end of time? The thing is if you get out, you better bring all the pro-US people there with you back to the states (or they will be killed). And let's be honest, your current president isn't really into allowing mass migration of Muslims people into your country, even when they risked their life for America. Its a hole the US has dug for itself in many places other than Afghanistan, its just that in Afghanistan theyve stuck around. The gist of it is: Sponsor the absolute scum of the earth with money and weapons for as long as they pay you lip service, kill or let them kill anyone else whose interests do not currently align with your short term ones. People? What people theres only money and geopolitical power to be made here. Then act indignant when the aforementioned absolute scum of the earth turn their scumminess towards you. Rigged Death Trap fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Sep 12, 2018 |
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Sep 12, 2018 13:23
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https://twitter.com/CBSEveningNews/status/1039707740875235329 https://twitter.com/glcarlstrom/status/1039869975069118464
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Sep 12, 2018 14:40
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The false flag chemical attack Russian predicted yesterday didn't happen, so they've come up with a new version of events:quote:The White Helmets have shot at least nine videos intended to serve as proof in accusations that the Syrian government conducted a chemical weapon attack using chlorine against civilians in Idlib, the Russian military claims. They've produced zero evidence to support any of these claims, but keep coming up with new stories for the Russian press to report on uncritically.
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Sep 12, 2018 16:42
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Hey is that Saudi dude Al-Saqr okay? I just noticed he hasn't posted since like May.
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Sep 12, 2018 18:56
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CherryCola posted:Hey is that Saudi dude Al-Saqr okay? I just noticed he hasn't posted since like May. The "post history" button has been hosed for ages. Check it on yourself (or me, or the poster above). He has posted here recently, like within the last couple weeks.
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Sep 12, 2018 20:19
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CherryCola posted:Hey is that Saudi dude Al-Saqr okay? I just noticed he hasn't posted since like May. I’m fine. Busy and important time in my life and I’m trying to hold back on the news and stuff so I can live and do things and live life with what I can do in arms reach. Reading the news and ranting online about things I have no power to control or change without putting me in harms way is just an exercise in screaming in the void that makes me want to kill myself and just enters me into a cycle of despair and rage that isn’t doing any good for me. I’ll pop back when something truly major happens but for now I’ll just go live life and try to fix what I can within arms reach of myself.
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Sep 12, 2018 20:19
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Al-Saqr posted:I’m fine. Busy and important time in my life and I’m trying to hold back on the news and stuff so I can live and do things and live life with what I can do in arms reach. Reading the news and ranting online about things I have no power to control or change without putting me in harms way is just an exercise in screaming in the void that makes me want to kill myself and just enters me into a cycle of despair and rage that isn’t doing any good for me. I’ll pop back when something truly major happens but for now I’ll just go live life and try to fix what I can within arms reach of myself. Wise choice, stay safe.
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Sep 12, 2018 20:22
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Al-Saqr posted:I’m fine. Busy and important time in my life and I’m trying to hold back on the news and stuff so I can live and do things and live life with what I can do in arms reach. Reading the news and ranting online about things I have no power to control or change without putting me in harms way is just an exercise in screaming in the void that makes me want to kill myself and just enters me into a cycle of despair and rage that isn’t doing any good for me. I’ll pop back when something truly major happens but for now I’ll just go live life and try to fix what I can within arms reach of myself. Cool, well glad you're safe! Didn't realize the post history thing was all hosed.
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Sep 12, 2018 21:05
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Al-Saqr posted:I’m fine. Busy and important time in my life and I’m trying to hold back on the news and stuff so I can live and do things and live life with what I can do in arms reach. Reading the news and ranting online about things I have no power to control or change without putting me in harms way is just an exercise in screaming in the void that makes me want to kill myself and just enters me into a cycle of despair and rage that isn’t doing any good for me. I’ll pop back when something truly major happens but for now I’ll just go live life and try to fix what I can within arms reach of myself. You're not the only one to arrive at the same conclusion. I still want that effortpost on Rojava though
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Sep 12, 2018 21:09
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Sergg posted:[Long, interesting post about Syria's Alawite History] Al-Saqr posted:I’m fine. Busy and important time in my life and I’m trying to hold back on the news and stuff so I can live and do things and live life with what I can do in arms reach. Reading the news and ranting online about things I have no power to control or change without putting me in harms way is just an exercise in screaming in the void that makes me want to kill myself and just enters me into a cycle of despair and rage that isn’t doing any good for me. I’ll pop back when something truly major happens but for now I’ll just go live life and try to fix what I can within arms reach of myself.
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Sep 13, 2018 01:01
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https://libertarianinstitute.org/foreign-policy/why-are-we-siding-with-al-qaeda/quote:Why Are We Siding With al-Qaeda?
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Sep 13, 2018 02:41
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Ron Paul 2008! Why did you stop trying?
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Sep 13, 2018 04:28
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Saladin Rising posted:This was a really good and informative post, thanks a lot for making it. I rarely make wall-of-text posts but I felt this was a sensitive subject that deserved the same kind of scholarly attention one would demand of a history paper, of which I wrote hundreds of getting my bachelors degree in history. I can cite sources, too.
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Sep 13, 2018 04:33
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Sneakster posted:So, the whole thing is a loving scam? United States Marine Corps Major General and two-time Medal of Honor recipient Smedley D. Butler posted:War is a racket.
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Sep 13, 2018 08:59
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let's all pause to appreciate someone getting upset at someone having a thing they believed, in this, the Middle East Thread of Eternal Despair
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Sep 13, 2018 16:24
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_oil_spill Didnt know about this until today. Anyone remember tbe day or the event? Has there been any environmental concerns raised... ever?
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Sep 15, 2018 02:22
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LeoMarr posted:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War_oil_spill There were pictures of poor oil-soaked cormorants on TV all the time when it happened. It's one of the reasons the first thing US forces did in 2003 was safeguard the oil fields.
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Sep 15, 2018 02:27
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Apparently Iran shot a bunch of ballistic missiles into Iraqi Kurdistan? This war is weird
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Sep 15, 2018 03:09
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So no major airstrikes for the last 4 daya. Idlib has been very quiet so far. US says they will not say why there has been a cease in the normal invasion posturing While russia is also distinctly vested in ending the conflict they too have halted near all bombing efforts in the region.some Idlib residents have left most of the bunkered up areas. Two biggest figjting positions have slightly depopulated to keep running things inside the citiy. WAR CRIME GIGOLO fucked around with this message at 08:51 on Sep 15, 2018 |
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Sep 15, 2018 03:32
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LeoMarr posted:So no major airstrikes for the last 4 daya. Idlib has been very quiet so far. US says they will not say why there has been a cease in the normal invasion posturing Turkey's been sending a bunch of tanks and APCs to their observation posts in the areas the regime was planning to invade during the cease fire too, so they're taking advantage of the lull in hostilities to at least implicitly threaten that they won't just watch from their barracks if the invasion does kick off. The US has also sent a bunch of new supplies and forces to Tanf, and stepped up training drills, so there's another example of Russia's threats backfiring. Maybe they'll ultimately decide to risk confrontation with Turkey and break the impasse over Idlib, but right now it looks like their bluster lately has been pretty counterproductive. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 15:51 on Sep 15, 2018 |
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Sep 15, 2018 13:01
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Sinteres posted:Turkey's been sending a bunch of tanks and APCs to their observation posts in the areas the regime was planning to invade during the cease fire too, so they're taking advantage of the lull in hostilities to at least implicitly threaten that they won't just watch from their barracks if the invasion does kick off. Well Ildib has to fall at one point or the other, the regime and the Russians lose leverage if it is allowed to stand. Also, as far as Erdogan goes, it seems it is probably better to ask forgiveness afterward after he burns some other bridge. It may be the US has threated to hit the Ruble again though. (I don't think the "bluster matters, this is just all great-game politics, and there is no real compromise.) Ardennes fucked around with this message at 02:28 on Sep 16, 2018 |
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Sep 16, 2018 02:22
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Ardennes posted:Well Ildib has to fall at one point or the other, the regime and the Russians lose leverage if it is allowed to stand. Also, as far as Erdogan goes, it seems it is probably better to ask forgiveness afterward after he burns some other bridge. I don't think Idlib is a settled matter with Turkey indisputably in control now or anything, but it sure seems like Russia and the regime were openly preparing to invade last week before suddenly pulling back and watching Turkey reinforce their border posts. If Russia wasn't willing to cross Turkey's red line last week, why would that change next week? Russia's only vital interest in Idlib is for the drone attacks on Tartus to come to an end, and Turkey may be willing to guarantee that (one way or another) in order to head off an invasion. Obviously the regime has a strong interest in reclaiming all of its territory, and Russia has some level of interest in that as well, but Russia's a great power with interests beyond Syria, so continuing to escalate its involvement now that its vital interests have been more or less secured may not be terribly appealing. The east of the country is lost to the regime as long as the US sticks around anyway, as well as the areas under occupation by Turkish backed rebels in the north, so it's not like Idlib is the sole remaining holdout. Playing the long game and allowing Turkey to focus their ire on the US for continuing to work with the YPG after ISIS has been eradicated might be a better play for Russia than risking conflict with Turkey and pissing off everyone in Europe by sparking a new refugee crisis from Idlib. Or maybe the invasion will start tomorrow, idk.
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Sep 16, 2018 03:45
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Sinteres posted:I don't think Idlib is a settled matter with Turkey indisputably in control now or anything, but it sure seems like Russia and the regime were openly preparing to invade last week before suddenly pulling back and watching Turkey reinforce their border posts. If Russia wasn't willing to cross Turkey's red line last week, why would that change next week? Russia's only vital interest in Idlib is for the drone attacks on Tartus to come to an end, and Turkey may be willing to guarantee that (one way or another) in order to head off an invasion. The obvious interest for both is to end what is honestly the last stronghold able really and willing to oppose Damascus without the involvement of a foreign power. It is possible Turkey made noises to stall the offensive but it really doesn’t make sense for the Russians or Assad to go this far and leave Ildib to be used against them latter when really the war is all but finished. If anything the conflict with the US has put Turkey in a more vulnerable position than anything, but letting Ildib survive lets Turkey keep leverage on them which does not make any long term sense. Also ISIS is purposefully being kept around at this point.
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Sep 16, 2018 04:23
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Could just be a matter of something as simple as internal politics. This offensive into Idlib isn't exactly domestically popular and the SAA knows it's going to lose a lot of soldiers fighting their way through a meatgrinder of 3 million people, a disproportionate number of whom are battle-hardened rebels with fortified defensive positions who are going to fight to the death. A staggering number of young Alawite men have been lost in this war, necessitating Hezbollah, Iraqi PMUs, and Afghan Shia to be imported to make up for the manpower shortage. Maybe Idlib becomes the new Gaza Strip. Or it could be something so simple as "We don't have enough artillery shells in forward positions yet."
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Sep 16, 2018 04:47
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Also it really bugs me when people say Idlib are all "al-Qaeda" because the vast majority of people living there are civilian refugees not wanting to be disappeared into Assad's camps & HTS only controls 60% of the territory there and there's still constant infighting between rebel groups. Also because HTS/JAN has never attacked anyone outside of Syria that I'm aware of, despite being on the receiving end of plenty of American bombs. If you want to use epithets against them, call them "the Syrian Taliban" or "fanatical Islamists". They broke ties with and disavowed al-Qaeda years ago because Julani was focused on issues in Syria proper and didn't give a poo poo about a dumb caliphate.
Sergg fucked around with this message at 04:58 on Sep 16, 2018 |
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Sep 16, 2018 04:52
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It's pretty clearly a logistical issue. There's nothing that's going to stop the regime from going after Idlib with the full support of Russia.
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Sep 16, 2018 04:58
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So is Turkey going to try to hold on to the areas they are controlling in Northern Syria after the war is officially over? Or will they relinquish control to Assad?
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Sep 16, 2018 05:18
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