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Helsing
Aug 23, 2003

DON'T POST IN THE ELECTION THREAD UNLESS YOU :love::love::love: JOE BIDEN


quote:

AUG. 14, 2018, AT 11:27 AM

We Looked At Hundreds Of Endorsements. Here’s Who Democrats Are Listening To.
By Meredith Conroy, Nathaniel Rakich and Mai Nguyen

Filed under 2018 Election

Get the data on GitHub

Research by Ballotpedia and Roey Hadar, Lee Harris, Adam Kelsey, Adia Robinson, Meena Venkataramanan and Johnny Verhovek of ABC News.

This story was produced in collaboration with ABC News and Ballotpedia.1
Two of the three Bernie Sanders-endorsed candidates who were on the ballot last Tuesday lost their primary races — Abdul El-Sayed of Michigan and Brent Welder of Kansas were defeated, while fellow Kansan James Thompson advanced to the general election. Not surprisingly, commentators were quick to proclaim that the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is flaming out in 2018 primaries.

The debate over whether progressivism is the way forward for Democrats didn’t start this year. It’s been raging at least since the 2016 presidential primary,2 when Sanders’s formidable run demonstrated the popularity of progressive policies like Medicare for all. But now that we’re more than halfway through the 2018 primary season, we can get a more conclusive reading of where Democrats are heading. As we described in our first installment in this series, FiveThirtyEight, ABC News and Ballotpedia together canvassed the personal and ideological traits of the 811 Democratic candidates who, as of Aug. 7, had appeared on the ballot in “open” Democratic races — those with no Democratic incumbent3 — for Senate, House and governorships. Using endorsement data from various interest groups, we can determine which wing of the party candidates belong to, and using the share of the vote they received in their primaries, we can determine how well candidates’ positions worked out for them.4

The party (mostly) decides

Since 2016, a number of groups have emerged to elect explicitly progressive Democrats. For example, Justice Democrats was formed in 2017 and describes its mission as working to “elect a new type of Democratic majority in Congress.” The candidates it endorses do not take money from corporate PACs or corporate lobbyists and generally agree with the group’s platform, which includes a federal jobs guarantee, tuition-free public college and the abolition of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. Another progressive group, Our Revolution, was founded in 2016 and describes itself as “the next step for Bernie Sanders’ movement.” Indivisible also sprung up in 2017 and is aimed at dismantling the “Trump agenda.” Other groups, like the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Working Families Party, have been around longer, but their missions are the largely the same — electing more progressives.

According to our data, 41 percent of candidates who received an endorsement from one or more of these progressive groups5 won their primary races. The most successful progressive group was the PCCC; the candidates it endorsed won about 67 percent of the time.6 Justice Democrats and Our Revolution had the worst win rates — candidates they endorsed won only 32 percent of their primaries (but they also endorsed more people overall, giving their candidates more chances to lose). Although those endorsed by progressive groups may not always win, in many races they are shifting the policy debate and forcing favored candidates to at least address some of their progressive stances. Take, for instance, Andrew Cuomo, New York’s incumbent governor. Since Cynthia Nixon, who has won endorsements from all five of the progressive groups we analyzed, announced she would challenge Cuomo in the Democratic primary, the governor has changed his tune on marijuana legalization and announced new progressive plans like voting rights for parolees.


The organization with the best endorsement record in Democratic primaries remains the Democratic Party itself. Candidates who are on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s Red to Blue List or endorsed by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee7 had a win rate of 95 percent (37 wins out of 39 endorsements). In races where a party-endorsed candidate ran against a progressive-group-endorsed candidate (excluding any races where a candidate was endorsed by both sides), the party-endorsed candidate won 89 percent of the time.

In other words, the best predictor of primary success remains establishment support.

However, there are several caveats: First, we don’t know which way the causation runs. The Democratic establishment is probably purposefully lining up behind candidates who were already the strongest in their field. Second, “establishment” isn’t a synonym for “moderate,” so the success of establishment candidates doesn’t necessarily mean that progressives are losing. For instance, eight party-backed candidates were also endorsed by at least one progressive group. And at least one group explicitly backing centrist candidates in Democratic primaries has struck out so far. Groups financed by No Labels — a bipartisan organization pushing for more compromise in Congress — have supported candidates in two open Democratic primaries so far this year, and neither won.

2020 in 2018

Three of the highest-profile potential contenders for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination — Sanders, former Vice President Joe Biden and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren — have all been active on the 2018 campaign trail, including supporting their preferred candidates with endorsements and rallies. If the candidates they endorse are avatars for their own 2020 campaigns, then Biden and Warren should be feeling pretty good right now. Candidates they endorsed have won 100 percent of their primaries so far in 2018, though each only endorsed a handful of people: Biden’s candidates went 10 for 10 and Warren’s went five for five. However, it’s worth noting that Biden mostly endorsed candidates who were facing token primary opposition, while most of the people Warren endorsed won truly competitive races. Finally, Bernie Sanders endorsed nine candidates, five of whom advanced to the general election, for a win rate of 56 percent.

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Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

like I said, your fanfiction is no doubt extremely interesting to you, but I'm interested in the canon.

what were his recorded words, for the consumption of said White Moderates, on the subject.

No no no, you've got it all wrong. Inconvenient facts that point out where you are just flat out wrong isn't "fanfiction", its "fake news". Come on, just like the guy you secretly support for how badly he owns the libs says it.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Fulchrum posted:

No no no, you've got it all wrong. Inconvenient facts that point out where you are just flat out wrong isn't "fanfiction", its "fake news". Come on, just like the guy you secretly support for how badly he owns the libs says it.

proclaiming Martin Luther King's Letter from Birmingham Jail fake news.

to own the libs.

magnificent.

Sneakster
Jul 13, 2017

by R. Guyovich

Fulchrum posted:

No no no, you've got it all wrong. Inconvenient facts that point out where you are just flat out wrong isn't "fanfiction", its "fake news". Come on, just like the guy you secretly support for how badly he owns the libs says it.
You're jumping the shark, man.

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

proclaiming Martin Luther King's Letter from Birmingham Jail fake news.

to own the libs.

magnificent.

Wait, do you think I am you? Is it that you don't actually understand the concept of the individual, so you think that I make all of your mistakes and statements?

Cause thats the only way this could not be an incredibly lazy troll attempt.

I know this is hard for you, but try to keep up.

You called the 1955 Montgomery Bus Boycott, and its search for Rosa Parks, fanfiction. I didn't call the Letter from Birmingham Jail fanfiction.

Do you understand now? Or do you want me to go over it slower, using colourful graphs?

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006
my one regret is that I couldn't get him to put together a riff on "how can you, a minister of the gospel of Jesus Christ, be such a deceitful hypocrite" before he decided the letter from birmingham jail never happened

e: ahahaha, spoke too soon, we have achieved Peak Sensible Moderation

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

my one regret is that I couldn't get him to put together a riff on "how can you, a minister of the gospel of Jesus Christ, be such a deceitful hypocrite" before he decided the letter from birmingham jail never happened

e: ahahaha, spoke too soon, we have achieved Peak Sensible Moderation

Understanding the basic concept of reality is now "sensible moderation". Well, it is, but I didn't think you'd admit that.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006
for those who do not get the joke



such a shame, how that radical socialist lost the white moderate with his unreasonable demands, and the catastrophic damage he left in his wake

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich
It would seem that I do, in fact, need colourful graphs to explain the concept of people who aren't you, to you.

Fulchrum fucked around with this message at 05:55 on Sep 15, 2018

Sneakster
Jul 13, 2017

by R. Guyovich
Holy poo poo, Garrison has been at it a long time.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

socialists!!!

Iron Twinkie
Apr 20, 2001

BOOP

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

like I said, your fanfiction is no doubt extremely interesting to you, but I'm interested in the canon.

what were his recorded words, for the consumption of said White Moderates, on the subject.

Personally, I'm looking forward to quotes from Fulchrum's suppository of non-existent MLK speeches such as "I have a Tax Credit" and "Letters from a Lanyardville Brunch"

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Fulchrum posted:

It would seem that I do, in fact, need colourful graphs to explain the concept of people who aren't you, to you.

would you say I'm not fooling anyone but myself with my nauseating talk, and that i'm only looking to feed my own egotism

seriously it is fantastic just how little the script has changed in the last seventy years

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Fulchrum posted:

It would seem that I do, in fact, need colourful graphs to explain the concept of people who aren't you, to you.

post in cspam coward

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

would you say I'm not fooling anyone but myself with my nauseating talk, and that i'm only looking to feed my own egotism

seriously it is fantastic just how little the script has changed in the last seventy years

70 years ago, people could tell the basic difference between what they said, and what their opponent said, and keep those concepts separated in their own heads.

Now, do you admit that the 1955 Montgomery bus boycotts happened, and that Martin Luther King Jr. had a significant part in organizing and leading them? Or do you still insist any version of Dr. King outside the speeches you can use to jerk yourself off are fanfic?

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Fulchrum posted:

70 years ago, people could tell the basic difference between what they said, and what their opponent said, and keep those concepts separated in their own heads.

Now, do you admit that the 1955 Montgomery bus boycotts happened, and that Martin Luther King Jr. had a significant part in organizing and leading them? Or do you still insist any version of Dr. King outside the speeches you can use to jerk yourself off are fanfic?

were you under the impression the letter from birmingham jail was a speech, Fulchrum? it's kind of right there in the name.

you should really look into this Dr. King guy. you might find yourself uncritically repeating fewer of the things his critics said to denigrate him for his crimes against the White Moderate as a result.


look at him, Fulchrum.

so sad at what the mean socialist is doing to The Discourse (tm)

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!! posted:

were you under the impression the letter from birmingham jail was a speech, Fulchrum? it's kind of right there in the name.
So now literally the only thing you have left is semantics. And yet you have all the confidence and self righteousness of George Wallace.

MSDOS KAPITAL
Jun 25, 2018
Probation
Can't post for 13 minutes!
Authoritarians like Fulchrum are only good for two things: mocking online and punching in the face IRL. Left, right, or center. Y'all are engaging in discussion with him like he's a real boy and it's loving embarrassing.

Yeowch!!! My Balls!!!
May 31, 2006

Fulchrum posted:

So now literally the only thing you have left is semantics. And yet you have all the confidence and self righteousness of George Wallace.


drat that self-righteous socialist! can't he see the damage he's doing to our precious norms?

Brave New World
Mar 10, 2010
Why the gently caress do people even bother to engage with Fulchrum? The guy is either a complete loon, completely incapable of arguing in good faith or works for a Russian troll factory. Some of you people are way too easy to bait.

Condiv
May 7, 2008

Sorry to undo the effort of paying a domestic abuser $10 to own this poster, but I am going to lose my dang mind if I keep seeing multiple posters who appear to be Baloogan.

With love,
a mod


i'm a little confused as to how a homophobe like fulchrum considers himself the center

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Brave New World posted:

Why the gently caress do people even bother to engage with Fulchrum? The guy is either a complete loon, completely incapable of arguing in good faith or works for a Russian troll factory. Some of you people are way too easy to bait.

Because it gives you assholes a chance to jerk yourselves raw by doing poo poo like comparing yourselves to Martin Luther King Jr.

Nonsense
Jan 26, 2007

MLK got owned for being right.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.
To liberals, Martin Luther King Jr is not someone to be listened to or learned from, but a decoration to be put on a pedestal, a plaque written for in the most inoffensive language possible, and never touched.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Sneakster posted:

Holy poo poo, Garrison has been at it a long time.

If I remember correctly the guy that drew that was still doing comics as of fairly recently and ended up obviously really regretting that one, but I may be mistaken on that. It’s been awhile since the comics thread discussed it and I was there.

Iron Twinkie
Apr 20, 2001

BOOP

https://twitter.com/erinmdurkin/status/1040708615194271744

Comparing how Nixion and Cuomo are reacting the the primary results, you'd think that he lost. He's so loving salty and mad that the IDC got obliterated and he doesn't have cover to govern as a Republican.

Also these two lines

quote:

“I’m not a socialist. I’m not 25 years old … I’m not a newcomer,” he told reporters at his Manhattan office. “But I am a progressive. And I deliver progressive results.”

quote:

And after Cuomo hosted an event alongside Hillary Clinton to mark the opening of a new bridge named for his father, the span was forced to stay closed due to structural dangers.

lol

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

We better hope Cuomo never loses, because if he does he will lose his poo poo and become the Green Goblin. "If I can't have this state, no one can!" he'll scream as he flies through Manhattan on his glider and drops bombs onto the pedestrians below.

Motto
Aug 3, 2013

It's cool how without the cover of having to pander to a more conservative base, blue-state dems are just open scumbags.

Ghost Leviathan
Mar 2, 2017

Exploration is ill-advised.

Ytlaya posted:

We better hope Cuomo never loses, because if he does he will lose his poo poo and become the Green Goblin. "If I can't have this state, no one can!" he'll scream as he flies through Manhattan on his glider and drops bombs onto the pedestrians below.

These people certainly already have the entitlement, pettiness, and seemingly limitless monetary resources and legal aid of supervillains.

VitalSigns
Sep 3, 2011

Fulchrum posted:

I don't think Cuomo's policies are superior. I'm using the facts to try and deflate a little bit of the loving air out of the heads of the people in this thread who are so very certain you and only you are able to win elections, and the clueless Democrats ideas are just holding you back.

Nixon should have done better, appealed to more voters, and not have acted bitter about high voter turnout.

I get boasting about Cuomo's victory if you believed he had the best policies and would be the better governor, but why on earth would you root for the worse candidate to win just to spite people who agree with you?

Fulchrum posted:

Because your complaining about the other thread being a groupthink circlejerk doesn't mean you get to impose one.


If SOcialists actually win a significant number of elections it will only be because Democrats offered no resistance and every form of assistance to them.

Or do we need to go over how Socialists keep losing badly to the establishment, and refusing to ever actually learn a goddamn lesson on how to do better?

Movements take time to build, especially against an entrenched political machine with all the money, connections, and mobilization experience. The Tea Party didn't take over the GOP overnight. They started small and organized and won on the local levels, while losing plenty of high-profile races. But they kept pushing, and as the establishment lost all credibility with the voters, everything started to change and now you have scions of political families like Mitt Romney grovelling at their feet.

It took six years for the Tea Party to claim a high-value scalp like Eric Cantor's. The DSA got Crowley in a year and a half. It took two full presidential cycles after McCain got annihilated for the Tea Party to claim the presidency. Mitt Romney crushed the nativist evangelicals in 2012, just obliterated them all, just 5 years later he's begging them for an administration job. We're only halfway through the first presidential cycle and already any establishment figure who even wants a shot at 2020 is adopting the DSA's platform on healthcare, education, and jobs (which they had all said would 'never ever happen' not that long ago).

Rejoice! Better things are possible! You don't have to root for your ideals to be beaten just so you don't get disappointed when it happens!

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Ghost Leviathan posted:

To liberals, Martin Luther King Jr is not someone to be listened to or learned from, but a decoration to be put on a pedestal, a plaque written for in the most inoffensive language possible, and never touched.

Is that why I'm looking at his actual life and accomplishments, and not just trying to use his words to scream "gently caress YOU, MOM!"

Panzeh
Nov 27, 2006

"..The high ground"
See, the way to win elections is to, uh.. side with the extremely popular health insurance companies, this is a sound electoral strategy.

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Ytlaya posted:

We better hope Cuomo never loses, because if he does he will lose his poo poo and become the Green Goblin. "If I can't have this state, no one can!" he'll scream as he flies through Manhattan on his glider and drops bombs onto the pedestrians below.

I'm guessing this is part of what you are referencing but playing the new Spiderman game it's like they shoved Cuomo into that role.

Fulchrum
Apr 16, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Radish posted:

I'm guessing this is part of what you are referencing but playing the new Spiderman game it's like they shoved Cuomo into that role.

So Cynthia Nixon is going to release a bioweapon over New York just to punish those dastardly people who didn't vote for her?

Eggplant Squire
Aug 14, 2003


Cuomo didnt screw over Nixon personally so the parallel there doesn't really work. That also isn't the villain's intentions for loving with Osborn-Cuomo but that's getting into video game spoiler territory which is serious business.

Lightning Knight
Feb 24, 2012

Pray for Answer

Panzeh posted:

See, the way to win elections is to, uh.. side with the extremely popular health insurance companies, this is a sound electoral strategy.

How else will I be able to buy more television ads?

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Ytlaya posted:

We better hope Cuomo never loses, because if he does he will lose his poo poo and become the Green Goblin. "If I can't have this state, no one can!" he'll scream as he flies through Manhattan on his glider and drops bombs onto the pedestrians below.

I can’t imagine him laughing that genuinely though.

sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Majorian posted:

I can’t imagine him laughing that genuinely though.

he's gonna toss a lady off the bridge from his glider and let out a bemused chuckle

Feldegast42
Oct 29, 2011

COMMENCE THE RITE OF SHITPOSTING

I still think the door is really going to crack open for the left in 2020 as apart of the battle royale of the 2020 presidential primaries. Maybe even sooner if dems take the house and Maxine Waters pulls off the speaker coup.

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Brave New World
Mar 10, 2010

Iron Twinkie posted:

https://twitter.com/erinmdurkin/status/1040708615194271744

Comparing how Nixion and Cuomo are reacting the the primary results, you'd think that he lost. He's so loving salty and mad that the IDC got obliterated and he doesn't have cover to govern as a Republican.

Also these two lines

“I’m not a socialist. I’m not 25 years old … I’m not a newcomer,” he told reporters at his Manhattan office. “But I am a progressive. And I deliver progressive results.”

lol
I can't even believe how breathtakingly stupid this is. It's the opposite of campaigning. This guy is actively making GBS threads in the face of people he fully expects are going to obediantly vote for him in 54 days, and you know perfectly well how The Other Thread is going to respond if they don't. There are resonable debates to be had about Strategic Voting, etc, but can we say that those arguements still hold when the candidate in question blatantly insults their own constituents?

Personally, If I were a resident of New York, I don't know if I even could pull the lever for him at this point- despite my seething rage towards the GOP.

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