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JBP posted:Why would this dramatically increase the number of voters moving from the liberal party? It's nonsensical. Why do you assume that the liberal party is the only source of people who don't vote labor? What is with your two party brain my dude
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Oct 17, 2018 07:28
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bell jar posted:Why do you assume that the liberal party is the only source of people who don't vote labor? What is with your two party brain my dude Do you understand how two party preferred/preferential voting works?
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Oct 17, 2018 07:29
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Besides, at some point someone has to start normalising left-wing ideas, because the right-wing one keep the poor poorer and gently caress the planet.
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Oct 17, 2018 07:29
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bell jar posted:Why do you assume that the liberal party is the only source of people who don't vote labor? What is with your two party brain my dude Ok then they come from the greens and it's the same outcome? Who are these other voters that are clamouring to flip marginal seats from the LNP to aid left wing policies and don't have the option of voting green?
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Oct 17, 2018 07:33
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https://twitter.com/KetanJ0/status/1052389485177122819?s=19
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Oct 17, 2018 07:34
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https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1052446887087939584 That swing though.
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Oct 17, 2018 07:37
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Aesculus posted:Do you understand how two party preferred/preferential voting works? I certainly understand that there are a large number of Greens voters that preference the Libs over Labor, who may be convinced to do otherwise through good policy
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Oct 17, 2018 07:49
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bell jar posted:I certainly understand that there are a large number of Greens voters that preference the Libs over Labor, who may be convinced to do otherwise through good policy lol E: Sorry but lol thinking that a greens 1 lnp 2 voter has anything in their head that makes sense or reacts to good policies.
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Oct 17, 2018 07:50
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JBP posted:Ok then they come from the greens and it's the same outcome? Who are these other voters that are clamouring to flip marginal seats from the LNP to aid left wing policies and don't have the option of voting green? If enough people who vote for other parties, vote for Labor, yeah dude, you can absolutely change the outcome of a seat. Give people something that they want (cheaper/more available healthcare) and it doesn't matter if it's left wing or not, because people actually want poo poo that benefits them
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Oct 17, 2018 07:52
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It would be pretty funny if they lose the seat after the way they were sure they were going to beat out Labor in those other bi-elections (and then tried to act like they knew it wouldn't happen.)
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Oct 17, 2018 07:54
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JBP posted:lol https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/preference-flows-at-the-2016-federal-election/9388826  You can see that preferences from Greens -> Labor have been shifting to Greens -> Liberal in the last couple of federal elections. I'm sorry that your echo chamber life doesn't expose you to people who vote Greens/Liberal, but they exist. And they've been growing. Labor can absolutely reverse that trend. e: looking further into the article, it looks like Greens -> Liberal voters were steadily decreasing until Bill Shorten became opposition leader, where the trend reversed bell jar fucked around with this message at 07:57 on Oct 17, 2018 |
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Oct 17, 2018 07:55
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Labor marches in lockstep with the Liberals on asylum seekers and gambling. They’re useless.
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Oct 17, 2018 08:00
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bell jar posted:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/preference-flows-at-the-2016-federal-election/9388826 So replace shorten and remove unions I guess.
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Oct 17, 2018 08:01
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bell jar posted:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/preference-flows-at-the-2016-federal-election/9388826 That trend is 1% over 3 years, and in 2013 it was Tony Abbott in charge. While Shorten could be the swing back it was also that Turnbull got i nto power in late 2015 who would appeal more to the Tory Tories than Shorten would anyway. At the next fed election, with Shorten against the Muppet Morrison i'm wagering on a .5 swing back aagin because Shorten's still useless but Morrison won't appeal to Tree Tories.
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Oct 17, 2018 08:01
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JBP posted:lol My mother in law is very much a Liberal voter but voted Greens at the last election and probably will at the next based purely on refugee policy.
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Oct 17, 2018 08:16
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Count Chocula posted:Labor marches in lockstep with the Liberals on asylum seekers and gambling. They’re useless. 100%
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Oct 17, 2018 08:17
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Senor Tron posted:My mother in law is very much a Liberal voter but voted Greens at the last election and probably will at the next based purely on refugee policy. How was her previous 30 years of tolerating the other stuff
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Oct 17, 2018 08:17
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https://www.buzzfeed.com/lanesainty/greens-mp-withdraw-nauru-question-about-killing-kids Greens MP Adam Bandt was told he had "overstepped boundaries" with a question on why the government is "slowly killing kids" on Nauru, and was forced to withdraw the comment in parliament gently caress this government.
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Oct 17, 2018 08:44
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quote:BANDT: I am prepared to rephrase the question ... Why is the government slowly killing these children?
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Oct 17, 2018 08:48
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He would have had to eat lunch at Anning's table in the cafeteria.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:03
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https://twitter.com/BrianMitchellMP/status/1052455113275703296 government falling apart (even more)
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Oct 17, 2018 09:04
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drunkill posted:https://twitter.com/BrianMitchellMP/status/1052455113275703296 Why the gently caress did she vote confidence in herself, surely she of all people must know how hosed she is. Further evidence of her incompetence.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:13
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Starshark posted:Why the gently caress did she vote confidence in herself, surely she of all people must know how hosed she is. Further evidence of her incompetence. She likes the benefits, she's not a name and she'll go back to being so far underground we'll forget she exists.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:15
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I would blow Dane Cook posted:https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes/status/1052446887087939584 wouldn't green to alp flow put alp infront of phelps?
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Oct 17, 2018 09:15
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Anidav posted:wouldn't green to alp flow put alp infront of phelps? Because a lot of them are going to go to Phelps, and there are enough votes from other parties to matter a lot too.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:18
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JBP posted:How was her previous 30 years of tolerating the other stuff I don't know the details of her voting history to say, but it's an issue that she cares about to the extent she and my father in law took in an Afghan refugee a few years back.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:19
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Doctor Spaceman posted:Because a lot of them are going to go to Phelps, and there are enough votes from other parties to matter a lot too. It seems unpredictable as gently caress to me.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:22
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What do the bookies say dav?
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Oct 17, 2018 09:24
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bell jar posted:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-15/preference-flows-at-the-2016-federal-election/9388826 Are you sure that's because of Labor tilting right and not the Greens tilting right and explicitly appealing to 'sensible moderates'? Aesculus fucked around with this message at 09:31 on Oct 17, 2018 |
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Oct 17, 2018 09:26
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bell jar posted:e: looking further into the article, it looks like Greens -> Liberal voters were steadily decreasing until Bill Shorten became opposition leader, where the trend reversed A lot of things might have happened between the 2013 and 2016 elections, not just the Labor leader (bear in mind the Labor leader at the 2013 election was ??? TO DO: google labor leaders) also the 'reversal' is a single percentage point and the 'trend' is one election I don't get the fuss over these 20% of Greens voters preferencing Libs, it's enormously in favour of Labor and I think it's most likely they're dumbshits who wouldn't be convinced by anything Labor does
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Oct 17, 2018 09:35
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My first car was a stick
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Aesculus posted:Are you sure that's because of Labor tilting right and not the Greens tilting right and explicitly appealing to 'sensible moderates'? I agree, the Greens could do a lot more to garner votes for themselves too
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Oct 17, 2018 09:35
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bandaid.friend posted:A lot of things might have happened between the 2013 and 2016 elections, not just the Labor leader (bear in mind the Labor leader at the 2013 election was ??? TO DO: google labor leaders) also the 'reversal' is a single percentage point and the 'trend' is one election The point is there's 1/5 Greens voters that could be persuaded to vote ALP over the Liberals, and more from other minor parties, too.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:37
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Anidav posted:It seems unpredictable as gently caress to me. It absolutely is, although I can't see the ultimate result being anything other than Sharma or Phelps.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:39
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One thing I haven't seen mentioned is that despite compulsory voting there's still a fair percentage (5? 8?)% who either never show up on election day, vote informally or donkey vote. If Labor or the Greens can manage a strong Corbyn-esque campaign to get them to actually care and vote properly that could not only counteract the centrist voters who swing to the other side but may actually tip an election entirely.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:40
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bell jar posted:The point is there's 1/5 Greens voters that could be persuaded to vote ALP over the Liberals, and more from other minor parties, too. I don't think so, if you look at preferences from other minor parties there's evidence of people who just seem confused more than anything else. No minor party has preferences flowing as strongly to a major party as do the Greens to Labor
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Oct 17, 2018 09:45
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Aesculus posted:One thing I haven't seen mentioned is that despite compulsory voting there's still a fair percentage (5? 8?)% who either never show up on election day, vote informally or donkey vote. If Labor or the Greens can manage a strong Corbyn-esque campaign to get them to actually care and vote properly that could not only counteract the centrist voters who swing to the other side but may actually tip an election entirely. This is another important point and absolutely true. I'm going off the top of my head here but weren't donkey votes hugely increased in the most recent federal election? I wouldn't be surprised if it rises again after the horrendous continuous round of by-elections we've had this cycle. I considered donkey voting last election because the federal seat I'm in is so heavily Liberal that it feels like there's no point. I can imagine that there are a whole bunch of people that didn't push through that and actually vote last time. I just have to hope that my one vote is part of a greater trend in my electorate (not fuckin likely lmao)
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Oct 17, 2018 09:45
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https://twitter.com/TheLyonsDen/status/1052470972756852737?s=19
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Oct 17, 2018 09:46
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Aesculus posted:One thing I haven't seen mentioned is that despite compulsory voting there's still a fair percentage (5? 8?)% who either never show up on election day, vote informally or donkey vote. If Labor or the Greens can manage a strong Corbyn-esque campaign to get them to actually care and vote properly that could not only counteract the centrist voters who swing to the other side but may actually tip an election entirely. I think that's already happened with the non-binding marriage survey. The libs signed their death certificate by putting that to public vote. Everyone 18+ that couldn't give a gently caress about politics is now on the electoral roll, and people who already were, like me, joined a party. The first branch meeting I ever went to, the oldheads were astounded that there were double the amount of people in the room than usual outside election season and I live in deep lib territory.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:47
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I don't even know what this slander is meant to convey?
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Oct 17, 2018 09:50
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Lid posted:I don't even know what this slander is meant to convey? Gay panic.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:57
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