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CIGNX posted:It'll be more of a problem for countries that rely on exporting raw materials to China and companies that depend on rising consumer spending in China. They'll be especially hosed if they've taken on loans to expand production based on the assumption of Chinese consumption increasing forever. But doesn't that group include most of the developing and underdeveloped world? A depression that disproportionately affects poorer counties sounds like a recipe for utter misery.
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Oct 15, 2018 11:19
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Skippy McPants posted:But doesn't that group include most of the developing and underdeveloped world? A depression that disproportionately affects poorer counties sounds like a recipe for utter misery. I'm not saying this is a good outcome. Just less terrible than 2008.
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Oct 15, 2018 11:24
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landgrabber posted:what do i do if i love china but i'm white
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Oct 15, 2018 11:30
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Grouchio posted:But of course. Especially if you love specifically pre-modern Chinese history, philosophy, culture, etc. that's pretty much it, yeah. it's all weird, i wonder if i'm a colonizer and stuff like that. i have this friend, i think she's second gen, who told me as much that X "asian" ethnicity and Asian-American™ are really two different things. i live out in the middle of nowhere on the east coast so most chinese people are just kind of adopted or don't really care about anything - it's not easy to find someone who actually likes talkimg about.this sorta thing to discuss The Ethics of Liking China with.
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Oct 15, 2018 11:52
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i mean i have that friend but she's from california and grew up in primarily asian schools/neighborhoods (at least by her account - not gonna debate her on it) so she seems to care less or simply think it's funny that a rando white kid she knows is getting way into china while she's always rolled her eyes at it
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Oct 15, 2018 11:54
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landgrabber posted:that's pretty much it, yeah. You worry too early. These ethics complications only really come into play once you try to personally benefit off of a foreign nation, at which point it becomes relevant whether you’re doing so at the expense of said nation or in a way that respects and supports them.
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Oct 15, 2018 13:22
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CIGNX posted:You can't use these numbers to make direct comparisons because the economies of the US and China function in radically different ways. Even though proportionally Chinese banks have more bad loans on their books, they aren't allowed to stop lending. The government literally intervenes and forces the banks to keep lending in order to prop up GDP. When loans are up for repayment and the debtor can't pay back, the government tells the creditor bank to rollover on the loans. Under this kind of environment, what does an NPL even mean anymore? How do you have a credit crunch when no one is allowed to stop the flow of credit? How do you have a panic when the government can instantly shut down market activity indefinitely? All you can realistically say is that the Chinese banking system is likely insolvent. What comes next is a bit of a mystery. What probably will happen is the Bank of China will simply QE the poo poo out of the situation, and the Yuan will take a hit...but this will likely make Chinese goods cheaper which will allow the Chinese to recapitalize to some extent. You aren't going to see a US style liquidity crisis because that is simply not how their banking system works, and also Beijing is going to immediately start pressing for fiscal stimulus. One thing unlike Japan, China does still have a larger labor pool (still) to pull from the countryside, and that continued infrastructure investment will still likely produce some gains. Basically, I could see growth drop from 6% o closer to 1-2% for a while.
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Oct 15, 2018 14:50
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What if that nation is constantly finding new ways to alienate every single business partner they have by lying, cheating and bullying?
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Oct 15, 2018 14:51
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A couple difference between China and Japan's economies I want to bring up. Japan kind of revalued yen to higher after the Plaza Accord, which weakened their manufacturing and kicked off the real estate boom. Japan's manufacturing sector is also easily imitated by other East Asian countries while its hard to move manufacturing off China to a even cheaper countries because you can always to find a poorer province in China with good infrastructure than Vietnam or Thailand. Also China casually ignore Americans pressure on raise yuan. It's going down to 7 this year so that pretty much cancel out half of the Trump's tariff. I also agree there is a real estate bubble happening in China for at least last 10 years. But IMO it was encouraged (probably not intentionally engineered) by the the CCP to capture majority of the wealth within China. It's funny now my parents apartment in outer borough of Guangzhou is matching the value of my apartment in outer borough of New York. Nobody knows when will the real estate boom stop but most agree CCP won't allow the market crash because that would mean the end of CCP reign, more so than Taiwan declaring independence. I think if China's economy go into recession, it will fail in different way than Japan. Just don't waste your money on China stock market. Nobody makes money on that poo poo.
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Oct 15, 2018 14:54
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Darkest Auer posted:What if that nation is constantly finding new ways to alienate every single business partner they have by lying, cheating and bullying? Are you talking about the US or China here? 
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Oct 15, 2018 15:16
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tino posted:A couple difference between China and Japan's economies I want to bring up. Japan kind of revalued yen to higher after the Plaza Accord, which weakened their manufacturing and kicked off the real estate boom. Japan's manufacturing sector is also easily imitated by other East Asian countries while its hard to move manufacturing off China to a even cheaper countries because you can always to find a poorer province in China with good infrastructure than Vietnam or Thailand. Also China casually ignore Americans pressure on raise yuan. It's going down to 7 this year so that pretty much cancel out half of the Trump's tariff. Yeah, the yen in all honestly should have fell far lower during the 1990s, it came especially an issue when it was a safe harbor during the 1997 crisis. Moreover, Japanese wages by the 1990s were significantly higher than their competitors in the developing world, much more of a gap than between contemporary China (outside of tier one cities) and other developing states. I do think Chinese growth is going to have to trend downward, but they are tools at their disposable to stop a collapse. If anything that might be a side benefit of a much more centralized form of state capitalism. I always thought Mainland stock markets were Potemkin-ish from the get go.
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Oct 15, 2018 15:29
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landgrabber posted:i mean i have that friend but she's from california and grew up in primarily asian schools/neighborhoods (at least by her account - not gonna debate her on it) so she seems to care less or simply think it's funny that a rando white kid she knows is getting way into china while she's always rolled her eyes at it That’s just her and her upbringing in California. I knew a girl who moved around manufacturing towns and ended up in small town Ohio. It was basically Ching Chong you eat dog everyday. So she worked really hard and graduated from Harvard Law. Oh and her family history with the cultural revolution was brutal. As a first generation immigrant who frequently bounces back and forth between Vancouver and Hong Kong, I always assumed Asia culture was always around. Going to the Midwest was like going to bizzarro USA
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Oct 15, 2018 17:13
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Darkest Auer posted:What if that nation is constantly finding new ways to alienate every single business partner they have by lying, cheating and bullying? I think that’s just called cost reduction through supply chain structuring Which large corporation are you talking about? Walmart? DuPont chemical? GM getting bailed out but still screwing over union workers? You forgot bribing 4 layers down to skirt around the foreign corrupt business act. Oh and companies like Lockheed that are in the business to kill *unimportant people. Corporation in China that requires government help in developing technology are never in good financial shape and are stuck in a rut. CRRC, the company which makes derived high speed trains are not profitable and AFAI haven’t leapfrogged high speed rail. I’m not so sure about Huawei right now but they used to make copycat telecom equipment back in the day. Whereas tech companies without much government help are doing quite well on their own. DJI is the leader of consumer drones and Frank Wang did rip off open source/hardware protocol as his own. But I think he forked enough to make the current iteration software his own.
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Oct 15, 2018 17:30
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caberham posted:That’s just her and her upbringing in California. yeah that's what i was getting at - even the person i DO have that has experience with it all isn't really gonna be critical as much as just dumbfounded. she was legitimately amazed when i told her about asian kids getting treated like poo poo, and how there were so few of them around and stuff like that.
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Oct 15, 2018 21:16
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sincx fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Mar 23, 2021 |
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Oct 16, 2018 05:55
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sincx posted:https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/2168715/google-ceo-says-china-search-engine-would-serve-99-queries-takes-swipe-baidu They sold out since they discontinued Google Reader. Them officially whore out would make me easier to receive google voice text without VPN. Also download apk without a different market app.
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Oct 16, 2018 06:08
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sincx posted:https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/2168715/google-ceo-says-china-search-engine-would-serve-99-queries-takes-swipe-baidu
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Oct 16, 2018 06:48
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Well do other searches like Bing or lol yahoo do censored searches in the states? All tech companies do comply with the Patriot Act
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Oct 16, 2018 07:11
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Grouchio posted:Query: Would this tempt Google into trying subtle ways to introduce such censorship in the states, or do they know better than that? Once the technology exist, it enters the circuit. Even if Google dont activelly push it, a rival can clone it and push it. This is the “capitalism will sell you the rope that we will use to hang him” that Marx talked about. Corporations like Google creating in democracy the tools to end democracy.
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Oct 16, 2018 07:53
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McGavin posted:Are you talking about the US or China here?
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Oct 16, 2018 19:51
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caberham posted:Well do other searches like Bing or lol yahoo do censored searches in the states? Yahoo Search has just been a shell, alternately, for Bing ever since 2010, with an increasing proportion of it being Google search since 2015 especially if you do your search from a phone. So, mostly Yahoo search behaves identical to Google with an uglier interface most of the time now.
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Oct 17, 2018 01:23
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Cool stuff, how about the patriot act stuff and gestapo poo poo? Can the US still domestically spy on its citizens and communications through some fallback policy/reason?
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Oct 17, 2018 03:18
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caberham posted:Cool stuff, how about the patriot act stuff and gestapo poo poo? Can the US still domestically spy on its citizens and communications through some fallback policy/reason? I just kind of assume the NSA can gather whatever data they want whenever they want it.
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Oct 17, 2018 03:20
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caberham posted:Cool stuff, how about the patriot act stuff and gestapo poo poo? Can the US still domestically spy on its citizens and communications through some fallback policy/reason? What fallback reason do you need, a government is intrinsically entitled to police the citzenry. I sure hope you aren't one of those people who didn't realize that's in the job description, not soemthing that suddenly happened around 2000 or so.
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Oct 17, 2018 03:29
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More like Germany where there’s a clear policy of what can he snooped and what can not. And how the data or metadata is used or anonymized. Where there’s a level of accountability and transparency to how the government exercises its powers.
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Oct 17, 2018 03:36
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caberham posted:Cool stuff, how about the patriot act stuff and gestapo poo poo? Can the US still domestically spy on its citizens and communications through some fallback policy/reason? The NSA doesn't domestically spy on US citizens, the PRISM participants and ECHELON member nations do and send the data to the US. There's a difference you see. It's not Gestapo poo poo because the Gestapo did very little surveillance. They mostly worked off tips and accusations from citizens. It's more STASI poo poo.
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Oct 17, 2018 03:41
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caberham posted:More like Germany where there’s a clear policy of what can he snooped and what can not. And how the data or metadata is used or anonymized. Germany spies on its citizens constantly though. Germany even spies on them for the US's behalf. Quite frankly most of the PATRIOT act stuff really only dealt with "we can have agency X doing this thing instead of having it done by agency Y like we did before" and "toss a lot more money into this on the books, instead of off the books like we were doing before". This is the normal state of the issue for developed nations going back easily a century. Fun little reminder: the NSA was actively monitoring everything on the Internet from the moment it was created. Because it was a DOD project, of course, and there was never a reason to stop once it was fully handed over to be available to civilian unqualified usage by the mid-90s.
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Oct 17, 2018 03:44
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fishmech posted:Fun little reminder: the NSA was actively monitoring everything on the Internet from the moment it was created. Because it was a DOD project, of course, and there was never a reason to stop once it was fully handed over to be available to civilian unqualified usage by the mid-90s. The NSA is not monitoring the entire Internet.
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Oct 17, 2018 03:58
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Pirate Radar posted:The NSA is not monitoring the entire Internet. It absolutely is.
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Oct 17, 2018 04:17
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fishmech posted:It absolutely is. They absolutely aren’t monitoring the whole thing. Not because they couldn’t, just because even they have you on ignore.
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Oct 17, 2018 04:21
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Pirate Radar posted:They absolutely aren’t monitoring the whole thing. Not because they couldn’t, just because even they have you on ignore. I assure you they are, it's kind of their job. It would be most unusual if they were refusing to monitor any particular part. Unless you're trying to pull some bullshit about them not monitoring some splinter aspect that isn't part of the internet?
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Oct 17, 2018 04:36
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It's more that you chose the word actively to describe the monitoring, which is not how that works. Almost all the NSA's collection is passive. It only becomes active in certain areas of interest
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Oct 17, 2018 10:47
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The NSA monitors parts of if not all of this forum. People are getting paid to read our shitposts.
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Oct 17, 2018 11:26
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Bloodnose posted:It's more that you chose the word actively to describe the monitoring, which is not how that works. Almost all the NSA's collection is passive. It only becomes active in certain areas of interest Is don't know if is different in english, but in spanish is different "look at something" and "see something". The NSA or somebody could be filtering trafic for keywords and sending stats back to some server that collect stats from many filters and generate a report that is printed, then nobody look at it. That is completely different than a human being looking at what we actually say and do, trying to find a reason to ruin our life. The difference may be smaller in the future, when AI algorithms will make the filter take decisions by itself (like triggering a alarm). CCTV cameras everywhere is not really a privacy risk if nobody is looking at the video. CCTV cameras + a AI vision algorithm that detect faces, and generate a timestamped log of where is everyone + a system that automatically report a 1 second violation of a Restraining order = nightmare dystopia. I doubt at this point the NSA is doing much with the capture data. Some pretty graphics in excel for some middle managers in the offices. Tei fucked around with this message at 12:11 on Oct 17, 2018 |
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Oct 17, 2018 12:08
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Bloodnose posted:It's more that you chose the word actively to describe the monitoring, which is not how that works. Almost all the NSA's collection is passive. It only becomes active in certain areas of interest But they are actively monitoring. Dunno what else you want to call a 40+ year long global surveillance program if not that they're actively monitoring. (And of course every other major developed country is also actively monitoring the internet as well)
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Oct 17, 2018 16:49
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Passive versus active surveillance of the internet has been a moot point since NarusInsight took over from Carnovire/Omnivore twenty loving years ago. That's the whole point of using machine learning and automation- to watch the whole internet all the time. Unless you think 33 Thomas Street in New York is like an art installation or something, lmao
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Oct 17, 2018 21:56
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Fishmech is posting to us from Area 51 in the Aquinas Hub, and is in fact merely the prototype for a much larger system.Tei posted:CCTV cameras everywhere is not really a privacy risk if nobody is looking at the video. Social Credit is on track, yes. I suppose that's why I think of it as such as existential threat: if it works, China will be able to show the world you don't have to choose between totalitarian control over your population or economic prosperity. You (the elites) can finally have both. That China could sell the world the idea that personal liberties and privacy were merely (like capitalism) useful intermediary concepts, but can now be obsoleted thanks to technology, with no downsides (to the people making the decisions on a national level).
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Oct 17, 2018 22:34
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Tei posted:
tbf i've spent multiple months of paid time producing, ultimately, pretty graphics in excel for some middle managers in offices
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Oct 17, 2018 23:52
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It's funny how I don't deliberately seek out China-related news stories, but I'm always stumbling on them and feel obliged to post them here. I bet Fojar will love this one: https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/11/africa/china-africa-sierra-leone-airport-intl/index.html CNN posted:Sierra Leone has nixed plans to build a controversial, $318 million airport outside the capital of Freetown with a Chinese company and funded by Chinese loans.
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Oct 18, 2018 02:09
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  Building transit for a fraction of the cost BEFORE a neighbourhood is developed?! No no, you propose the transit after the area has already fully built out except it was all built with only cars in mind and now it's too expensive and not suited to transit at all and the local nimby's are against it. Note: we used to do this in the west but we're too stupid now. 
Baronjutter fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Oct 18, 2018 |
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Oct 18, 2018 20:11
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