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LeoMarr posted:Then what do they do after detainment
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Oct 16, 2018 11:22
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Darth Walrus posted:'Expelling diplomats' is code for 'we are not letting your intelligence operatives work openly in this country any more'. You kick out the people you know to be spies and leave the actual people who handle diplomacy. It's a way milder measure than the headlines might suggest. Not really. I think it was this case when they expelled diplomats but didn't actually decrease the size of the diplomatic mission, meaning more people could come replace them.
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Oct 16, 2018 11:34
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C.M. Kruger posted:Eastern Europe: Bishop Hilarion and the Chamber of Schisms
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Oct 16, 2018 13:18
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Welp https://twitter.com/RFERL/status/1052318587187277825
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Oct 17, 2018 08:48
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https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1052455373251244034 I don't think we've ever made Russia this mad at Bellingcat, even with 4 years of MH17 and Syria reporting. Tells you a lot about the problems we've caused them with our Skripal work. Never seen them look so weak or emotional at such a high level. I did an event last night in Amsterdam with Russian investigative journalists Andrei Soldatov who said there's currently an new sense of fear in Moscow among ordinary people, like they've recognised the system is failing, when before they accepted there were problems, but believed there were a set of semi-unspoken rules that if they followed they could live with, like not going to protests, joining certain political groups, etc. It's like they've lost trust in that bargain, the future that was once steady and certain is now unstable and uncertain. Now, that's just his opinion, but it's certainly the strongest response I've ever seen to our work, and one they have no way of proving, because it's untrue.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:17
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I have to speak up on this point, it is almost certainly about the pensions. Everyone is livid about the pension situation and there is a palatable level of anger in the air. Honestly, I don't think the spy issue is seriously on the minds of most people. It is just not something Russians seriously care about. On the other hand, once the pension cuts were announced even Putin's approval rating has dropped 20%. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Oct 17, 2018 |
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Oct 17, 2018 09:21
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Yeah, the idea that the Skripal investigation is causing domestic unrest in Russia is worthy of a spit take and indicates an ignorance of Russian news.
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Oct 17, 2018 09:58
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steinrokkan posted:Yeah, the idea that the Skripal investigation is causing domestic unrest in Russia is worthy of a spit take and indicates an ignorance of Russian news. I wouldn't say it causes the unrest, but it definitely contributes it. Right now Russian news cycle is dominated by the spy row, and Ukrainian autocephaly. In both cases, at least from my experience, even when propaganda lands with people (e.g. people believe that Bellingcat and Patriarch Bartholomew work for CIA specifically to undermine Russia), many still see Russia's reaction to those events as failure caused by incompetence, and serious damage to the country's prestige.
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Oct 17, 2018 10:58
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Yes, I think that's what he was going for, it just adds to the overall sense something is wrong, rather than creating it in the first place.
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Oct 17, 2018 11:14
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Paladinus posted:I wouldn't say it causes the unrest, but it definitely contributes it. Right now Russian news cycle is dominated by the spy row, and Ukrainian autocephaly. In both cases, at least from my experience, even when propaganda lands with people (e.g. people believe that Bellingcat and Patriarch Bartholomew work for CIA specifically to undermine Russia), many still see Russia's reaction to those events as failure caused by incompetence, and serious damage to the country's prestige. When average people don't know it happened in the first place or it is just some Western hoax, there isn't much bite. Also, Ukrainian autocephaly is not really a thing that many people care about (it is an internal church issue and most Russians aren't that religious to begin with). Pensions, in contrast, are something everyone cares about. I mean are most Americans that upset when the CIA bungles something or the US does something incompetent overseas (it took years for polling on the Iraq War to change)? A few are, but most people only care about what is immediately important to them, bread and butter issues like inflation, pensions, health care, unemployment etc. Russia is no different. Also, the polling more or less lines up with the pension issue and its consequence. Vlad self-owned himself by screwing with the live wire of Russian politics. Is everything else good for the Kremlin? No, obviously, but Vova could get away with screwing with the outside world, it is when the issue suddenly became something everyone had a stake in, then it got a lot "real." Ardennes fucked around with this message at 11:49 on Oct 17, 2018 |
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Oct 17, 2018 11:19
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I agree with steinrokkan and Ardennes that Skripal case and Ukrainian autocephaly combined are a single, juvenile fart on the background of the forest fire of a pension reform.
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Oct 17, 2018 12:17
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The Skripal case is embarrassing for Russian authorities as they have been touting their own special services as invincible badasses, now they are going on national TV to pretend to be a gay couple to cover their asses. Not as important as the pensions but not a good look for the macho image There has a been an explosion in a Kerch (Crimea) college with at least 10 reported killed. Already called a terror attack.
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Oct 17, 2018 12:24
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Conflicting reports but: https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1052525479503130624
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Oct 17, 2018 13:19
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The outlook is bad sure, Somaen, but I am not sold that it meaningfully affects a broad demographic. Also god drat, Kerch incident looks really bad. 
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Oct 17, 2018 13:34
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https://twitter.com/EnglishRussia1/status/1052543357652783104 The thread gives a lot of info on the shooter.
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Oct 17, 2018 14:17
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They should probably switch to blaming America, since it sure looks like a US-style school shooting...
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Oct 17, 2018 14:20
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OddObserver posted:They should probably switch to blaming America, since it sure looks like a US-style school shooting... He literally cosplayed as one of the Columbine shooters.
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Oct 17, 2018 14:56
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Brown Moses posted:So Graham Phillips turned up at our press event today, and thought it would be awesome to stand in front of dozens of journalists who had been waiting patiently for about an hour and start screaming at me about NATO I'd forgotten about that guy.
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Oct 17, 2018 15:25
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Also it was amusing to have Bellingcat come up in a conference I attended last week during a talk on cyber security. The speaker used the recent release of the poisoners as a "Look! *this* is what people can do with public information on the Internet!"
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Oct 17, 2018 15:51
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Paladinus posted:https://twitter.com/EnglishRussia1/status/1052543357652783104 Oh and I was wondering when they're going to try to blame this on Ukraine. It doesn't seem to be the official position so far but it wouldn't stop some morons like that guy or other unofficial Kremlin mouthpieces from just "asking the questions" of course.
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Oct 17, 2018 16:05
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Careful; while they generally play by the rules and aren't really affiliated with intelligence the way RT is, RFERL is US-funded foreign-facing influence media.
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Oct 17, 2018 16:13
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A bit of political fiction from our democratically elected ruling party, dropped a couple of days before local government elections https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rMBVLCGkvX0
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Oct 17, 2018 16:37
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Discendo Vox posted:Careful; while they generally play by the rules and aren't really affiliated with intelligence the way RT is, RFERL is US-funded foreign-facing influence media. I’ve seen similar material from Russian sources for a few times in the recent years.
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Oct 17, 2018 16:39
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Paladinus posted:The thread gives a lot of info on the shooter. Discendo Vox posted:Careful; while they generally play by the rules and aren't really affiliated with intelligence the way RT is, RFERL is US-funded foreign-facing influence media.
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Oct 17, 2018 17:33
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Paladinus posted:He literally cosplayed as one of the Columbine shooters. Your choices are slim if your historical reenacting club has only one member.
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Oct 17, 2018 19:55
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Dwesa posted:I know, anyone at least a little familiar with Cold War history is also familiar with RFE's role. The source of statistics is Russian state-owned institution though. OK, just tossing it out there. Qatari and SA propaganda's working overtime with this journalist's killing so I'm wired to cite-check folks atm.
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Oct 17, 2018 22:22
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Sorry to Grouchio but does this hubbub about the Ukrainian church mean that we've had or are possibly about to have a whole new schism? Is the Russian Orthodox church technically no longer Eastern Orthodox?
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Oct 17, 2018 23:04
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Grape posted:Sorry to Grouchio but does this hubbub about the Ukrainian church mean that we've had or are possibly about to have a whole new schism? They are in a one-way schism. All other churches didn't reciprocate, so from their point of view ROC is 100% Orthodox.
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Oct 17, 2018 23:21
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Grape posted:Sorry to Grouchio but does this hubbub about the Ukrainian church mean that we've had or are possibly about to have a whole new schism? It's not on the original Constantinople vs Rome level yet (placing anathema on each other) but ROC basically doesn't consider churches in Constantinople jurisdition "cool" for its members to receive spiritual services. Same with Constantinople hierarchs. Most Orthodox churches have an agreement that for example means than Bulgarian Orthodox Church members can for instance receive baptism or confession in ROC church and it's considered "valid" in Bulgaria. ROC no longer allows it for constantinople. Constantinople patriarch didn't respond with their own measures. In practice it means very little, only matters for really strict Russian Orthodox people living in Istanbul and Russian VIPs who liked to visit mount Athos which also belongs to Constantinople.
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Oct 18, 2018 10:13
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Sekenr posted:Most Orthodox churches have an agreement that for example means than Bulgarian Orthodox Church members can for instance receive baptism or confession in ROC church and it's considered "valid" in Bulgaria. ROC no longer allows it for constantinople. Not exactly. Their church sacraments are, generally speaking, still valid, but are what Catholics call illicit. Ordination is kind of up for debate, and some sacraments can only be performed by a validly ordained priest, but that's en edge case. So if an ROC member baptises their child or marries in a Ecumenical Patriarchate church, from ROC's point of view they'll have to confess it later, but they won't need to re-baptise or re-marry in ROC. Meanwhile, Putin delivers a supervillain monologue. https://twitter.com/dimsmirnov175/status/1052911127259242496 (on retaliation nuclear strikes) 'The aggressor must now that retribution is inevitable, that they will be destroyed. We are the victims of their aggression, and as martyrs we are going to heaven. But they will die like animals. Because they won't even have time to repent!'
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Oct 18, 2018 15:28
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Paladinus posted:Not exactly. Their church sacraments are, generally speaking, still valid, but are what Catholics call illicit. Ordination is kind of up for debate, and some sacraments can only be performed by a validly ordained priest, but that's en edge case. Aside from the jihadist sounding blurb at the end it sounds reasonable, a retaliatory strike IS a defensive measure and a retaliatory nuclear exchange will bring ruin to all. Though without knowing the source I would totally have guessed that statement came from Iran.
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Oct 19, 2018 08:40
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So, I am not sure if I understand this whole schism correctly. I think it's obvious why ROC is angry, but I don't understand why is Constantinople patriarch granting Ukrainian churches autocephaly. Is it a reasonable thing to do or is there some feud between patriarchates in the background?
Dwesa fucked around with this message at 10:15 on Oct 19, 2018 |
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Oct 19, 2018 08:48
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Dwesa posted:So, I am not sure if understand this whole schism correctly. I think it's obvious why ROC is angry, but I don't understand why is Constantinople patriarch granting Ukrainian churches autocephaly. Is it a reasonable thing to do or is there some feud between patriarchates in the background? Official reason was that ROC failed to do its mission: stop a war between two orthodox peoples that both belong to its jurisdiction. I think Paladinus is more knowledgeble on the matter, but IMO Bartholomew sees this as a chance to gain influence potentially over Ukraine, thanks of the Ukranian government and look kind of good in the process. Maybe he actually wants to do some good? Could be there are personal feelings involved as well, this leaked transcript of Kirill and Bartholomew meeting sheds some light: https://orthodoxia.info/news/exclusive-the-dialogue-between-the-patriarchs-of-constantinople-and-moscow-during-their-meeting-at-the-phanar/ IMO Bartholomew might be pissed that ROC is both essentially a department of the Kremlin and simultaneously puts on the "lamb of god" face when dealing with other churches. He definitely seems pissed at Bishop Hilarion, man in charge of ROC foreign relations. There was also Constantinople's "invasion" of Estonia in the 90ies. Sekenr fucked around with this message at 10:22 on Oct 19, 2018 |
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Oct 19, 2018 10:11
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You're pretty much right. There are centuries old canons and council proclamations supporting both sides, and both sides have 'embellished' certain historical facts to support their claims, and there are ecclesial politics and whatnot, but in the end of the day Constantinople is more justified in the eyes of other churches, because they bring people back in the fold, while Moscow makes everything in its power to do the opposite. There is a term in Orthodoxy for disregarding the letter of some canons for greater spiritual good - oeconomy, and this is what Constantinople does here (even though they don't want to acknowledge it). Moscow chose the opposite approach, akribeia, insisting on literally following canons in a situation where it leads to a literal schism. While ROC has nominally only broke communion with Ecumenical Patriarchate, if the follow their own logic (i.e. if you are in communion with schismatics, you yourself become a schismatic), it would mean the churches that are still in communion with Constantinople are also in schism, but because Russia is in communion with them, ROC is in schism, too, so at some point ROC still needs to employ oeconomy to stay in communion with at least somebody. It's a mess. There are also more worldly concerns within Ukraine regarding the role of Piotr Poroshenko in the process, and how transfer of parishes will be handled later on. Despite urging parishioners to refrain from violent take-overs of church property, anti-Moscow Patriarchate rhetoric is very strong. Poroshenko casually says people who oppose Ukrainian autocephaly choose to serve Kremlin instead of Christ, and other nasty things that go way beyond what a secular leader should be able to say about religion.
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Oct 19, 2018 13:24
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There's been a write-up of Bellingcat and the process of identifying the Skripal killers in one of Slovak daily newspapers (in Slovak): https://dennikn.sk/1274303/bellingcat-nadsenci-ktori-odhalili-rusov-bod-po-bode-nam-opisali-ako-sa-im-to-podarilo/
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Oct 26, 2018 07:56
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https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-fails-bid-schedule-un-vote-nuclear-treaty-inf-spurned-by-trump/29566690.htmlquote:Belousov claimed that at a recent meeting, U.S. officials declared that Russia was preparing for war. I wish this thread had more discussion going on - Romanians discussing the anti-corruption agency and social-democratic party stand-off, Poles talking about the local elections and people from the baltics sharing the best designs for make-shift boats in case of emergency
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Oct 27, 2018 12:25
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Somaen posted:https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-fails-bid-schedule-un-vote-nuclear-treaty-inf-spurned-by-trump/29566690.html quote:Russia has failed in a bid at the United Nations to schedule debate on a resolution to preserve a 1987 nuclear arms treaty that U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to abandon. Everyone is shocked with Trump backing out of the treaty, but when this is supposed to be discussed at the UN, they refuse. I don't understand the reasoning.
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Oct 28, 2018 10:23
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Doctor Malaver posted:Everyone is shocked with Trump backing out of the treaty, but when this is supposed to be discussed at the UN, they refuse. I don't understand the reasoning. Because they don't want US retaliation for voting in favor of debate.
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Oct 28, 2018 15:41
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In actual EE news, today is the 100th anniversary of the Czechoslovak state  The weather is supper lovely though so ugh...
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Oct 28, 2018 17:26
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FSB has allegedly detained the border guard official responsible for selling information about foreign travels of Skripal poisoners. Apparently FSB did go to town and carried out 60 raids in short order to crack down on the information availability.
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Oct 30, 2018 10:48
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