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Sheng-Ji Yang posted:Yeah people saying that an economic crisis and recession wouldn't hurt Trump are pretty silly. The status quo is always held against the President, and aside for his most blind partisans the blame would fall on Trump. Genuine question: How much of Trump's support isn't blind partisans? I kind of feel like there isn't a lot of people with a mild reaction toward Trump either for or against.
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Oct 19, 2018 14:25
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LastInLine posted:Genuine question: How much of Trump's support isn't blind partisans? I kind of feel like there isn't a lot of people with a mild reaction toward Trump either for or against. Quite a few, but I don't think there's much of a functional difference between voters who genuinely love Trump and voters who only support Republicans as a bulwark against what they see as Democrats who have gone crazy re: metoo, immigration, etc.
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Oct 19, 2018 14:38
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It's not as big as people think, but it's still sizeable. Trump, for all his incompetence, has done two very politically smart things, at least for him personally. First, he's not gotten involved in pushing specific legislation except at Ryan or McConnell's behest, and he hasn't publicly tried to get them to put legislation through that they're not on board with. He also hasn't threatened a veto of anything with significant GOP support. Second, he's only nominating judges pre-approved by relevant socially conservative groups. The Kavanaugh nomination was a debacle, but it wasn't because Trump tried to impose a nominee the Senate didn't want. His personal morality notwithstanding, he's largely done what his socially conservative base wants, and has largely avoided getting personally entangled in any of the internecine struggles roiling the GOP. Because things have largely been fine economically, he's been able to float along without addressing that particular GOP division.
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Oct 19, 2018 15:07
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trump will still have his base of support even during and after an econonic downturn or crash, because they love the white supremacist ethnic cleansing he's doing, and an economic crisis just gives him a narrative with which to do more terrible poo poo to immigrants, refugees, and noncitizens
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Oct 19, 2018 15:17
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crazy cloud posted:trump will still have his base of support even during and after an econonic downturn or crash, because they love the white supremacist ethnic cleansing he's doing, and an economic crisis just gives him a narrative with which to do more terrible poo poo to immigrants, refugees, and noncitizens
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Oct 19, 2018 16:38
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crazy cloud posted:trump will still have his base of support even during and after an econonic downturn or crash, because they love the white supremacist ethnic cleansing he's doing, and an economic crisis just gives him a narrative with which to do more terrible poo poo to immigrants, refugees, and noncitizens I guess that explains obama's popularity.
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Oct 19, 2018 19:33
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Azathoth posted:First, he's not gotten involved in pushing specific legislation except at Ryan or McConnell's behest, and he hasn't publicly tried to get them to put legislation through that they're not on board with. He also hasn't threatened a veto of anything with significant GOP support.
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Oct 20, 2018 18:38
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get that OUT of my face posted:that's a positive for him? it hasn't gotten much of anything done It's neutral, which is the best possible outcome for him. Him setting a legislative agenda and trying to push anything through would be the same exercise in cat herding that Ryan and McConnell have to do to get even basic, non-controversial legislation passed, Trump getting involved would just make him look less powerful and wouldn't actually help. He throws enough red meat to his base via the various agencies to make it look like he's doing poo poo, even if he really isn't doing anywhere near what he claims.
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Oct 20, 2018 18:51
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crazy cloud posted:trump will still have his base of support even during and after an econonic downturn or crash, because they love the white supremacist ethnic cleansing he's doing, and an economic crisis just gives him a narrative with which to do more terrible poo poo to immigrants, refugees, and noncitizens Largley, but he certainly will see a drop in support as people just stay home.
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Oct 20, 2018 19:07
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crazy cloud posted:trump will still have his base of support even during and after an econonic downturn or crash, because they love the white supremacist ethnic cleansing he's doing, and an economic crisis just gives him a narrative with which to do more terrible poo poo to immigrants, refugees, and noncitizens of the never-trumpers I know, most have gradually fallen in line. I imagine it's like when you're drowning and you finally stop struggling and a warm feeling of TRUMP just washes over you. I guess some have become democrats, but not many. The Nastier Nate has issued a correction as of 17:54 on Oct 22, 2018 |
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Oct 22, 2018 14:15
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get that OUT of my face posted:beto o'rourke seems like he'd be fairly decent as a senator and all ted cruz has on him in his attack ads is "he was in a rock band!" and "he cusses!" but considering this is texas and people there are dumber than anywhere else in america, they probably won't care and re-elect the living ventriloquist dummy
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Oct 22, 2018 17:40
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lmao kill me
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Oct 22, 2018 18:00
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Can I ask why the GOP is slated to expand or keep its 51-49 lead in the Senate? I mean...how? They are consistently glib about how much they love the rich and hate the poor...how does even their own base not see what they're doing? Or does every American still think wealth is something that's on the horizon for them even with all evidence to the contrary?
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Oct 22, 2018 18:05
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An insane mind posted:Can I ask why the GOP is slated to expand or keep its 51-49 lead in the Senate? I mean...how? They are consistently glib about how much they love the rich and hate the poor...how does even their own base not see what they're doing? Or does every American still think wealth is something that's on the horizon for them even with all evidence to the contrary? voter suppression, racism, and misogyny why change a strategy that's a proven winner lmao
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Oct 22, 2018 18:09
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only a third of the Senate is up for re-election, and most of them are D seats or R seats in extremely safe states, so there aren't many chances to take seats away from Rs.crazy cloud posted:voter suppression, racism, and misogyny also this lol
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Oct 22, 2018 18:09
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Thanks for the dystopian answer I guess...I think I need to go lie down for a bit and stare at the ceiling.
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Oct 22, 2018 18:14
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An insane mind posted:Can I ask why the GOP is slated to expand or keep its 51-49 lead in the Senate? I mean...how? They are consistently glib about how much they love the rich and hate the poor...how does even their own base not see what they're doing? Or does every American still think wealth is something that's on the horizon for them even with all evidence to the contrary? https://twitter.com/dril/status/841892608788041732?s=20
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Oct 22, 2018 18:16
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An insane mind posted:Can I ask why the GOP is slated to expand or keep its 51-49 lead in the Senate? I mean...how? They are consistently glib about how much they love the rich and hate the poor...how does even their own base not see what they're doing? Or does every American still think wealth is something that's on the horizon for them even with all evidence to the contrary? most of the seats up this year are full of flyover country racists and minorities that aren't allowed to vote anymore
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Oct 22, 2018 18:20
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U-DO Burger posted:only a third of the Senate is up for re-election, and most of them are D seats or R seats in extremely safe states, so there aren't many chances to take seats away from Rs. Of the 35 seats up for grabs this year, 26 belong to Ds (or Is that caucus with Ds). The remaining 9 seats are mostly in really safe states like Mississippi or Utah. Some seats like Cruz's might flip, but are still unlikely, while McCain's seat is pretty much open save for the fact that it's in Arizona. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/2018_elections_senate_map.html
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Oct 22, 2018 18:36
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Xelkelvos posted:Of the 35 seats up for grabs this year, 26 belong to Ds (or Is that caucus with Ds). The remaining 9 seats are mostly in really safe states like Mississippi or Utah. Some seats like Cruz's might flip, but are still unlikely, while McCain's seat is pretty much open save for the fact that it's in Arizona. Huh, American politics manages to be both convoluted and ridiculously stagnant. Who'd a thunk...
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Oct 22, 2018 18:48
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U-DO Burger posted:only a third of the Senate is up for re-election, and most of them are D seats or R seats in extremely safe states, so there aren't many chances to take seats away from Rs. To expand on this, Senators are on six year terms, so the Senators up for reelection this year were all elected in 2012, which is the last time Dems had a decent election, so despite the conventional wisdom saying that this will be a good election for Democrats, they've got some seats that are really tough to defend. Right now, the Senate is 51-49, so to gain control, Democrats would need to gain two seats. There's a lot of seats that are considered to be competitive, but the only pickup they are currently favored in is Arizona where Krysten Sinema is currently ahead of Martha McSally to take retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake's seat. Also, Nevada GOP Sen. Dean Heller is tied up with Jacky Rosen, but even if Rosen wins that one, Dem Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota is currently behind, so the Dems seem likely to lose a seat there. By far the most likely path to Dem control would be for Heitkamp to hold on, and for Rosen and Sinema to flip their seats, which would give 51-49 control to Dems. There's other, less likely scenarios, like Beto O'Rourke in Texas flipping Sen. Ted Cruz's seat, or Phil Bredesen in Tennessee flipping Sen. Marsha Blackburn's seat, but elections in individual states don't happen in a vacuum. Any scenario where Heitkamp holds on and wins is far more likely than not to include Sinema and Rosen also winning. The next most likely alternative control scenario for Dems involves Sinema and Rosen winning, Heitkamp losing, and Beto beating Cruz. I would not say it's more likely, but it is possible. Any scenario where Bredesen wins almost certainly includes Beto, Heitkamp, or both winning as well. On the other side, Dems also need to hold seats in West Virginia, Montana, Missouri, and Florida, all states where Trump won. For a variety of reasons, these states are considered safer than the others I mention. However, that isn't to say that they're entirely safe. Dem Sen. Bill Nelson in Florida has a tough fight against outgoing GOP Gov. Rick Scott, but the race seems to be moving in Nelson's direction right now. Trump has been putting in time in Montana to help unseat Sen. John Tester and Sen. Claire McCaskill in Missouri represents a deep red state as well. If the election starts moving away from Democrats, they could be in danger. I'll wrap up by saying that I think the likely outcome is that Dems pick up one seat overall, as I'm not optimistic about Heitkamp, but I'm also optimistic about the remaining tossups.
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Oct 22, 2018 18:59
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An insane mind posted:Can I ask why the GOP is slated to expand or keep its 51-49 lead in the Senate? I mean...how? They are consistently glib about how much they love the rich and hate the poor...how does even their own base not see what they're doing? Or does every American still think wealth is something that's on the horizon for them even with all evidence to the contrary? The Republicans are really good at making sure people don't vote, so are the Democrats.
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Oct 22, 2018 20:29
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Ok yeah he's loving done 
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Oct 22, 2018 20:55
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Kinda owns how whenever dems get a massive war chest, they seem to immediately squander it on overpolished musicals and stupid bullshit that doesn't speak to anyone's actual wants or needs
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Oct 22, 2018 21:17
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An insane mind posted:Can I ask why the GOP is slated to expand or keep its 51-49 lead in the Senate? I mean...how? They are consistently glib about how much they love the rich and hate the poor...how does even their own base not see what they're doing? Or does every American still think wealth is something that's on the horizon for them even with all evidence to the contrary? A lot of poor people don't vote. Both because neither party offers them much, and because of structural barriers: The Income Gap at the Polls quote:Why does the United States have such depressed voter turnout among the poor? For one, the United States has numerous barriers to voting that don’t exist elsewhere. Nearly 3.5 million felons were barred from voting in 2014 due to felony disenfranchisement, which exists in no other country Mahler studied and which has influenced the result of Senate and presidential elections ( including possibly the 2014 election). A number of countries have compulsory voting laws which boost turnout. Most European countries that require IDs to be shown at the polls have national ID cards that are provided for free to all citizens. The United States is also an outlier in that it doesn’t have automatic voting registration. In most countries voter registration is compulsory and therefore either universal or almost universal. The United States is also rare among developed countries in the level of politicization that occurs around voting rights.
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Oct 22, 2018 21:23
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Azathoth posted:To expand on this, Senators are on six year terms, so the Senators up for reelection this year were all elected in 2012, which is the last time Dems had a decent election, so despite the conventional wisdom saying that this will be a good election for Democrats, they've got some seats that are really tough to defend. I'd say a net +1 is probably a likely outcome (though Manchin still staying in his seat doesn't really make it a 50-50 split). Nelson is ramping up to keep his seat, but I'd wager it's less on his own merits and more on the coattails of Gillum's own progressive support. Scott could still win it by some strange turnout weirdness, but it's really hard to say at this point  . Scott added 2-3 more early voting days iirc due to the hurricane, but that may be more because that area is more tilted to Scott than out of general fairness. Tallahassee is also in the affected area which is Gillum's home turf so there's a small side effect of the extension, but Scott's own political aspirations is probably more important to Scott than helping his fellow Republicans win.
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Oct 22, 2018 21:24
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Business Gorillas posted:Kinda owns how whenever dems get a massive war chest, they seem to immediately squander it on overpolished musicals and stupid bullshit that doesn't speak to anyone's actual wants or needs That was done by Reagan Battalion, a right wing group most famous for getting Milo kicked out of Breitbart and for supporting the McMuffin for President campaign.
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Oct 22, 2018 22:00
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Xelkelvos posted:I'd say a net +1 is probably a likely outcome (though Manchin still staying in his seat doesn't really make it a 50-50 split). Yeah, if I were gonna bet money, I'd say we end at an even 50-50, with Nevada and Arizona going blue and North Dakota going red and everything else staying the same. If Scott wins in Florida, the GOP is already holding Nevada and probably keeping Arizona too, but who knows anymore.
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Oct 22, 2018 22:08
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i heard that beto's campaign strategy was questionable but not to the extent that his advertisements are as bad as ted cruz'sBusiness Gorillas posted:Kinda owns how whenever dems get a massive war chest, they seem to immediately squander it on overpolished musicals and stupid bullshit that doesn't speak to anyone's actual wants or needs get that OUT of my face has issued a correction as of 05:11 on Oct 23, 2018 |
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Oct 23, 2018 01:02
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Before you ever give money to a democrat consider how likely they will be to waste that money on 6 figure DNC consultants who keep losing races and then getting rehired. And never ever give a cent to an organization like the DNC or your state party cause that money is definetly getting flushed down a toilet. Give directly to a candidate
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Oct 23, 2018 08:55
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Business Gorillas posted:Kinda owns how whenever dems get a massive war chest, they seem to immediately squander it on overpolished musicals and stupid bullshit that doesn't speak to anyone's actual wants or needs yes but have you considered HAMILTON
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Oct 23, 2018 09:43
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Crossposting some hot takes from the Florida threadPlastik posted:Lol @ implying that voting for the third party is somehow self destructive. Plastik posted:I worked the primaries two years ago, and couldn't this year because I can barely pay rent right now, but the candidate I would have worked for is about to happily receive an endorsement for the candidate who lost us the last presidential election. Literally the symbol of everything wrong with the Democratic Party in my eyes. Do I not have a right to be upset? gently caress you, I still voted for Gillium, but if he loses now there'll be no doubt on my mind as to why. Gynocentric Regime posted:Not really, there's an almost 0% chance that anyone who wants to move the party leftward could ever hold any power, they wouldn't even let us have Ellison as a figurehead leader. Not voting, and letting them know why, is the only leverage we got; they must lose over and over again until their learn their lesson and come to heel.
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Oct 24, 2018 19:40
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_dxMDnkmS-4 using a same-sex marriage as a metaphor for an unholy union 
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Oct 24, 2018 20:49
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Xelkelvos posted:Crossposting some hot takes from the Florida thread Excuse me sir, I ordered my takes Hot, these are lukewarm at best.
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Oct 24, 2018 20:54
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Xelkelvos posted:Crossposting some hot takes from the Florida thread Where's the lie?
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Oct 24, 2018 20:54
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Xelkelvos posted:Crossposting some hot takes from the Florida thread they're all hot, in that they're good posts and I like them.
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Oct 24, 2018 20:59
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Xelkelvos posted:Crossposting some hot takes from the Florida thread those are all correct yes
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Oct 24, 2018 21:47
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Xelkelvos posted:Crossposting some hot takes from the Florida thread gyno is right
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Oct 24, 2018 23:35
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Taintrunner posted:gyno is right Not voting for the Dems in a D vs. R race has never pushed the Dems Leftward.
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Oct 25, 2018 02:54
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Xelkelvos posted:Not voting for the Dems in a D vs. R race has never pushed the Dems Leftward.
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Oct 25, 2018 04:34
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