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Prester, I love you and everything but your toxx is pretty dumb. https://twitter.com/Andy_Truc/status/1055191265757716481?s=19
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Oct 24, 2018 21:42
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jojoinnit posted:A police shooting? 
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Oct 24, 2018 21:43
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https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1055115965455839233
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Oct 24, 2018 21:43
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evilweasel posted:economics as a discipline also suffers from liberal arts college students who struggle with algebra being taught a super dumbed down version that doesn't require any math more complex than straight lines interacting in econ 101, not getting beyond that, and thinking the dumbed down version is the real version. the added note on this is that real econ is just a whole shitload of math formulas, statistics and proofs but that doesn't end up getting taught unless you get a Masters or above or are very lucky and have a very good undergrad department. I got both a math and econ degree and my department was very into teaching "real" econ once you got into the mid to upper level classes so I think I avoided a lot of the mental traps. I made a bunch of big effort posts about the ideological failures of econ a week? two weeks? ago itt.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:44
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CuddleCryptid posted:Prester, I love you and everything but your toxx is pretty dumb. Well, hey, at least we found Car 54?
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Oct 24, 2018 21:46
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Skyarb posted:Awesome thanks guys, I'll check out ballotpedia. I'm in California if that helps. I also find checking out your local league of women voters website, or even the Friends Legislative Action Committee, offer clear explanations for their endorsements and reasoning http://www.fclca.org. (The Friends aka Quakers are fairly lefty, anti-violence folks, if folks are unaware. )
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Oct 24, 2018 21:47
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coffeetable posted:You are dumb if you think you have any ability whatsoever to time the market. I'm not dumb, just too lazy to have invested regularly earlier 
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Oct 24, 2018 21:48
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evilweasel posted:if you happen to actually be good at math and want some free As in college, take some econ classes with the liberal arts students. just make sure all of the grade is in the exams and not class participation. the only A+ i got in college was an econ class where all of the difficulty was in the byzantine algebra to get answers instead of using calculus, and once i figured that out i basically showed up for two tests and had such a high average i could have signed my name to the final exam, turned it in blank and gotten a zero, and still pulled off something like a C. I also had a fun experience with this where for my intermediate micro class I was the only one who knew how to do multivariable calculus/differential equations so instead of doing the computationally intense derivations i just used my math skills to make everything fairly simple. my arguments were also generally more readable/logical because i was in upper level pure math courses that were all proof writing so it was pretty easy for me to explain my logic. once i got to the advanced micro class (aka game theory) it was assumed everyone had 4+ years of calculus and also some linear algebra for good measure and it stopped being so fun/easy. and the advanced macro class assumed you already had 2+ years of probability and statistics knowledge and could generate your own auto-regressive models to explain how to model shocks to economic systems. there's a reason my department only had like 20 people in its graduating class.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:50
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selec posted:I don't really have the language to better understand it beyond the turbulent, often violent outcomes it wreaks on the people least-capable of dealing with those effects in our society. I've been listening to Richard Wolff's podcast to get a better grip on it. I still have at best a tentative understanding of what happened in 08 (mostly derived from reading Taibbi and watching The Big Short) but I think the thing I'm driving at here is that it seems pretty unfortunate and dangerous that there's an enormous consensus about our economic system among the experts, that consensus doesn't seem to change too much, yet that consensus can't prevent events like the Savings and Loan crisis, the dotcom bust, or the 08 crisis. All those experts, and nobody can solve the mystery of Where All The Black Family Wealth Went After 08. I also endorse the books that Axeil recommended, but let me offer my two current favorites. Adam Tooze's Crashed is probably the best book on the crisis. He's a historian, but he has a relatively good understanding of the finance. He does a great job stressing the international dimensions of the crisis. That said, the book is quite long, so you can also listen to him on the bajillion podcasts / events he did on his book tour like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHOcuE3oGVQ . https://www.amazon.com/Crashed-Decade-Financial-Crises-Changed/dp/0670024937 I also really like Diary of A Really Bad Year. It features a series of interviews with a hedge fund manager that were originally for n+1 during the crisis. It's really interesting to see how his interpretation of the crisis changes as events unfold in real time. And it's a fast read written for a non-finance audience. https://www.amazon.com/Diary-Very-Bad-Year-Confessions/dp/0061965308
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Oct 24, 2018 21:52
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publishko posted:holy poo poo. i used to go to this Kroger regularly Same. Crazy news day already, and I just got back from lunch.
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Oct 24, 2018 21:57
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Prester Jane posted:Works for me. I The consistent use of 'among his base' feels like a hedge that ensure you can't lose, because how do you define/measure that? His general approval rating is buoyed by his base but also relies on a decent % of non-base people to support him; that's why it's shifted 10 points in the past year on ownership of the economy. If you're talking his general approval rating, this is easily testable (and also extremely wrong), but the hedge of 'among his base' makes it a tautology; Trump's base are, by definition, the people who won't abandon him.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:00
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that if that scenario does occur there will be no significant change in support among Trumps base 30 days out from the time the receivership becomes public. (Lets set the boundary at <2 points) Further there will be an indisputable* increase in the numbers of Proud Boys (and the like) appearing at public rallies 4 months after that event.
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CNN is now saying "and other individuals" when listing the people who got attempted-bombed. How many have there been? I assume none of them have been successful?
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Oct 24, 2018 22:01
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I'm getting a bug on chrome where I can't copy paste but I found a tweet that showed that the "isis logo" on the bomb is actually a parody logo that says "git er done". not joking.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:04
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axeil posted:the added note on this is that real econ is just a whole shitload of math formulas, statistics and proofs but that doesn't end up getting taught unless you get a Masters or above or are very lucky and have a very good undergrad department. I've noticed recently some arguments among economists about inflation have spilled into mainstream publications. My sense is that after 2008 a lot of people made a number of predictions about how inflation was bound to rise. . . and then it just didn't. And nobody really knows why. Is there any truth to that?
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Oct 24, 2018 22:04
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Petr posted:CNN is now saying "and other individuals" when listing the people who got attempted-bombed. How many have there been? I assume none of them have been successful? They literally just ran out of room on the chyron to keep listing everyone.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:06
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Bullfrog posted:I'm getting a bug on chrome where I can't copy paste but I found a tweet that showed that the "isis logo" on the bomb is actually a parody logo that says "git er done". not joking. given what looks like the face beside it, my first thought was that it was a meme or something so that doesn't seem like a crazy stretch
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Oct 24, 2018 22:07
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axeil posted:
Seconding this recommendation. An excellent book on the subject.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:07
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Squalid posted:I've noticed recently some arguments among economists about inflation have spilled into mainstream publications. My sense is that after 2008 a lot of people made a number of predictions about how inflation was bound to rise. . . and then it just didn't. And nobody really knows why. Is there any truth to that? we know why, because the economy and credit markets were utterly wrecked to the point that inflation was not a realistic possibility. that's why the fed was so willing to run quantitative easing on such a huge scale, because we knew it wasn't going to cause inflation because there was such a huge demand hole caused by the financial crisis. the people predicting inflation largely were (a) amateur hacks using conservative economics for dummies or (b) people who wanted the economy not to recover under Obama's watch
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Oct 24, 2018 22:08
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Bullfrog posted:I'm getting a bug on chrome where I can't copy paste but I found a tweet that showed that the "isis logo" on the bomb is actually a parody logo that says "git er done". not joking. Whose Twitter?
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Oct 24, 2018 22:08
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Krugman called them inflationistas and rightfully lambasted them for their fearmongering.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:10
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https://twitter.com/esaagar/status/1055169489136955392
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Oct 24, 2018 22:10
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plogo posted:I also endorse the books that Axeil recommended, but let me offer my two current favorites. Not to go too far off topic but I can second anything Tooze writes. His stuff is really good, well researched and easy to read. His book other famous book “The wages of destruction” really destroys the myth of Nazi Germany as anything resembling a coherently functioning state, economically.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:10
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Squalid posted:I've noticed recently some arguments among economists about inflation have spilled into mainstream publications. My sense is that after 2008 a lot of people made a number of predictions about how inflation was bound to rise. . . and then it just didn't. And nobody really knows why. Is there any truth to that? Yeah, that happened. A lot of right wing economists predicted rampant inflation would occur due to the stimulus and the fed's interference. I even remember right wing Heritage Foundation economists talking on NPR, in 2008, about how the stimulus would be a real-world test of whether left wing or right wing economists were correct. in contrast Paul Krugman predicted quote:
https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2...setType=opinion Two years later (which was the timeframe of Krugman's prediction) the unemployment rate was at 9.3% and inflation hadn't happened. Here's a good summary of all the different times Krugman has been 10000% right and right-wing economists have been full of poo poo: https://medium.com/@a19grey/in-defense-of-paul-krugman-5cc25af3809b
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Oct 24, 2018 22:11
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Squalid posted:I've noticed recently some arguments among economists about inflation have spilled into mainstream publications. My sense is that after 2008 a lot of people made a number of predictions about how inflation was bound to rise. . . and then it just didn't. And nobody really knows why. Is there any truth to that?
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Oct 24, 2018 22:11
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Bullfrog posted:I'm getting a bug on chrome where I can't copy paste but I found a tweet that showed that the "isis logo" on the bomb is actually a parody logo that says "git er done". not joking. https://twitter.com/aymanndotcom/status/1055177976713830400
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Oct 24, 2018 22:11
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Good news, the Trump DOJ would like the Supreme Court to not decide whether Title VII of the CIvil Rights Act protects trans people from employment discrimination yet ... because they want them to rule that it doesn't protect gays first https://twitter.com/dominicholden/status/1055203656579121152
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Oct 24, 2018 22:12
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Was anyone ever seriously arguing that Trump's support among "his base" would fall for any reason whatsoever aside from possibly murder? It feels like toxxing that the sun will rise tomorrow morning.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:13
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Rigel posted:Was anyone ever seriously arguing that Trump's support among "his base" would fall for any reason whatsoever aside from possibly murder? It feels like toxxing that the sun will rise tomorrow morning. the bigger problem is that support among his base wouldn't drop: his base would shrink
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Oct 24, 2018 22:14
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Bullfrog posted:I'm getting a bug on chrome where I can't copy paste but I found a tweet that showed that the "isis logo" on the bomb is actually a parody logo that says "git er done". not joking. Someone Googled "ISIS flag" but forgot to clear their search history first.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:15
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His base will eventually drop dead if trump declared war on breathing.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:15
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Your Taint posted:More domestic terror! It's highly doubtful this has anything to do with the bombs that were sent to CNN/Dems. I mean this is America, land of the daily shootings.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:15
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axeil posted:For more details on this, read How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? That's an excellent article. It's sad that we're nigh on 10 years later and the problem has just gotten worse.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:17
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https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1055179494946955271
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Oct 24, 2018 22:18
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Guillottine is too good for this scum.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:20
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https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1055206125241622535?s=19
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Oct 24, 2018 22:22
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Inferior Third Season posted:No inflation with a depressed market at the zero lower bound is textbook Keynesian economics, with people like Krugman shouting it from the rooftops. But Keynesian economists are not the ones who get the TV talking head pundit jobs, so most people don't hear them. That makes sense, though the problem has continued into present times when it seems economists are really confused as to why inflation and wages aren't rising given current unemployment. I've heard some pretty harsh criticisms of fed rates policies, saying their definitions of full employment are just made up and arbitrarily high, and have probably hurt workers for no good reason. It seems like there's no meaningful consensus on a number of important policy issues.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:22
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Squalid posted:I've noticed recently some arguments among economists about inflation have spilled into mainstream publications. My sense is that after 2008 a lot of people made a number of predictions about how inflation was bound to rise. . . and then it just didn't. And nobody really knows why. Is there any truth to that? Really short version of what you're talking about below: Freshwater economists (aka the Chicago school idiots) did because their models couldn't comprehend the idea that the "needed" interest rate being below 0 (aka the 0 lower bound issue). The Saltwater ones (aka Keynesians) did not because they knew we were up against the 0 lower bound and their models say that when you increase spending in that environment you don't see any change in inflation. I believe Krugman covers this phenomenon in the article I linked earlier. Here it is again for convenience. https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html axeil fucked around with this message at 22:26 on Oct 24, 2018 |
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Oct 24, 2018 22:23
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Squalid posted:That makes sense, though the problem has continued into present times when it seems economists are really confused as to why inflation and wages aren't rising given current unemployment. I've heard some pretty harsh criticisms of fed rates policies, saying their definitions of full employment are just made up and arbitrarily high, and have probably hurt workers for no good reason. It seems like there's no meaningful consensus on a number of important policy issues. they are, just slowly, and economics isn't really precise enough that its "confusing" why there might be lag times longer than expected
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Oct 24, 2018 22:25
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Lumpy posted:Seconding this recommendation. An excellent book on the subject. Just went and bought this, thanks for the recommendation y'all, I promise not to love money any more after reading it than I do now.
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Oct 24, 2018 22:26
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Rigel posted:Was anyone ever seriously arguing that Trump's support among "his base" would fall for any reason whatsoever aside from possibly murder? It feels like toxxing that the sun will rise tomorrow morning. Trump could personally shoot George Soros or Hillary Clinton and not lose a single bit of his base Those who are devoted don't live in our plane of reality
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Oct 24, 2018 22:28
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